Lokasenna
Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012 From: Iowan in MD/DC Status: offline
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At this computer, my earliest turn loaded into Tracker is 255. Estimation follows. Assumptions and conditions: 1) A 1:1 ratio in Chinese Rifle Squad to Support squads in Chinese units. Since it's impossible to separate losses among different nationalities for Support squads, this is the best estimate I can come up with. 2) Chinese Rifle Squads and Support squads will make up the majority of devices in Chinese units. I will count other Chinese devices if they are so labeled and I can pick them out as not used by other nationalities. Therefore, this will create some fuzziness in the final number. 3) Assuming that by turn 255 (August 18), the siege of Chungking has begun (verified by my Word document) and all losses of Chinese LCUs outside of the city have dropped off to a negligible amount. Granted, a significant number (~1700 Rifle Squads) were lost outside Paoshan in the exodus to India and the units were not actually destroyed. I have a full list of the units that I saved in my AAR. It is rather long... 4) Obviously, lots of Chinese were dead before turn 255, but they would've respawned at Chungking. Given the gaps in the Tracker DB at this computer, they may have respawned and been whittled down or killed again during the gaps. 5) The replacements that I have taken have been outside of combat and they have not been destroyed, so anytime a squad is drawn from the pool I must subtract it from the Active column so as to get a more accurate counting of destroyed squads. Turn 255 Rifle Squads used from pool: 442 Active Rifle Squads: 21747 Therefore, assuming the 1:1 ratio, there were approximately 43,000 Chinese Rifle/Support squads on 8/18/42. Turn 421 Rifle Squads used from pool: 3246 Active Rifle Squads: 12020 21747 - 12020 - 3246 = 6481 squads remaining before taking replacements, or roughly 13,000 squads including support. That means about 30,000 squads were destroyed. That's about 2500 VPs, which we'll see in a moment over the real figure. Obviously, there are lots of guns and other devices in the units as well - assume about a 1:4 ratio there, to be generous. That brings the total up to about 3000 VPs, and this includes the exodus from Paoshan. Now I check in Tracker. I have a gap in turns loaded - 301 to 317 - during which the fall of Chungking occured. Allied LCU VPs jumped from 12498 to 14723, or a change of 2225. So clearly the fall of Chungking was worth somewhere around 2150-2175 VPs (other LCU losses during this timeframe were light). Next, I am searching in my Word notes for the exodus from Paoshan. This occurs around the end of October, early November. By the time the full exodus is complete in early January, Allied LCU VPs stand at 15277, and almost the entire difference is in Chinese LCUs getting beat up on retreats - a change of about 500 VPs. So in total, all of my dead Chinese LCUs at Chungking and all of the devices I lost running to India adds up to about 2700 VPs. Well below the estimate at Chungking, heh. Then we count up bases. Chungking is worth up to 3600 (and -800 for the Allies), and Chengtu is worth up to 1800. So that's 5400, and let's be generous and say all of the *10 bases for Japan can add up to 1000 - so 6400. Then there's Kunming at *50, and that can be worth 600. Tsuyung can be worth 300. Lanchow 800. Sining 500. So 8600 for bases, give or take a couple hundred for the *10 bases. That's about 11.3K VPs for China. Maybe you lose more Chinese LCUs... even if I lost the entire Chinese army, including all of the replacements I've taken in India, we're only talking about ~30,000 more devices, or about 2.5K VPs. That's about 14K. 20-25K is far too high. Not that 14K is anything to sneeze at, that's a big chunk of rather cheap VPs. I think people have a tendency to vastly underestimate the number of LCU VPs that come from the SRA. It is many thousands.
< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 9/11/2014 10:10:05 PM >
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