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RE: Western Australia counter-invaded! - 8/14/2013 6:13:23 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Oct 27, 1943

Burma:
Nothing of significance has happened since the last update. Bad weather played a role, but I think more important is that Michael just decided to stand down his airforce completely. I was able to convert more Tojo groups to Franks, expand Rangoon and Mulmain airfields to level 9 and 5 respectively and bomb Pegu airfield to prevent fort building.

Michael's ground troops are waiting. He has 21 units in Rabaul, 29 in Pegu and 5 one hex north of Mulmein. What these troops do in the near future will immediately influence my decision to launch my own offensive.

Western Oz:
There are still 4 divisions here, 2 of them armoured. 2nd Marine Div is still alive, but will surrender in a few days. The tank divisions were extracted a few days ago and are moving to Perth.

SE Fleet:
3rd Marine Div just landed at Munda and overwhelmed a naval guard unit. Shortlands will be more difficult to crack, as I have 450 AV there.

IJA redeployment:
11 divisions are resting in Java, most of them preparing for Rangoon. There is no hurry, as long as the Allied Army in Burma won't descend to Mulmein. I can use this time to repair disabled squads and increase prep levels.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 8/14/2013 6:14:45 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 181
RE: Western Australia counter-invaded! - 8/14/2013 6:15:54 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		He's probably extra aware of signet now and watching everything to see where those troops went. Prep is great but can let him set an ambush as well. Of course you could ambush the ambush and really cause havoc.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 182
RE: Western Australia counter-invaded! - 8/14/2013 6:20:22 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		I 'm doing everything I can to flood his SigInt with conflicting messages, but in the end he will know I'm coming, if those divs stay in Java for a long time. That's why I want Michael to resume his Burma offensive asap.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 183
RE: Western Australia counter-invaded! - 10/22/2013 6:17:37 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Quick update:
December 7th, 1943

Burma:
My Burma offensive is postponed indefinitely due to enemy dispositions and general inactivity. Rangoon has not been attacked since the last update and the allied Pegu garrison is still there building up airfield and forts. The only change was that an British/Indian corps of 3 1/2 divisions crossed the Salween but suffered severe casualties (500 inf squads destroyed). In the air, there was only a 3-day battle over Rangoon which ended in a stalemate. I chose not to defend the Mulmein airfield and it's now closed. The next big airfield is Bangkok, which will reach lvl 9 in a few days.

Western Australia:
The IJA withdrawal is complete and only 250 AV of support units remain in the area.

DEI:
The IJA 19th, 21st and 25th Armies are assembled in Java and Malaya. Most of my divisions are prepared for a Burma offensive, which will probably not be launched in 1943, if at all, depending on Allied moves. The 14th Army is defending the Eastern DEI with 4 1/2 divisions.

SE Fleet:
The bulk of the fighting takes place here. The Allies have just invaded Torokina with two divisions. The airfield at Rabaul is trashed and the sea is totally controlled by 8-10 allied CVs. I needlessly lost a huge amphibious TF near Milne Bay, due to borked orders. Over 20 fast AKs, 6 APDs, 1 LSD, 6 Es were lost. One division worth of of troops was lost at sea as well.

4th Fleet:
Te Marianas are now turned into a fortress. An Allied move here now would be ill advised. By the end of January '44, the stack limits in the three most important islands will have been reached, with 1000 AV in reserve at Babeldaob and Yap.

5th Fleet:
Another 450 AV have been added since my last update.

China:
No change.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 10/22/2013 6:25:02 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 184
RE: Western Australia counter-invaded! - 10/27/2013 3:37:35 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		I forgot to add that during the invasion of Shortland, I committed 3 Unyo class carriers and about 350 land based aircraft to strike at the invasion ships. But I set them to one hex longer range than I should, so both my strikes went after the allied carriers sitting one hex south of Shortland. If I had set them to the correct rangge, it would have been a massacre for the precious allied LCIs and APAs, as absolutely no CAP was protecting them. As it were, I lost 220 LBA aircraft and about 35 KB aircraft (mainly bombers), against a 700 strong allied carrier CAP. Despite this, I was pleasantly surprised about the performance of my Zero pilots, as they managed to break through and allowed the bombers to sink a CVE.

Btw, the 8th Divisions is still holding out at Shortland, despite a lack of supplies.

The allies just landed at Buka with three infantry regiments (against one of mine). All my airfields in the region are out. I'm rebuilding my airforce at Manus and Nazdab.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 185
Japanese Economy, '44-'45 - 11/1/2013 4:31:11 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		A few words about my economy, as we we will enter 1944 in two weeks.

More and more I realize that my managing of the Japanese economy was far from optimal, since the beginning of the war. This is my second pbem and I was thinking I would correct the mistakes I made in my first one, but, alas, I seem to have repeated them all over again and made some new ones in the process. To summarize it briefly, the supply wastage could be as much as 2 million tons. Most of it went to increase aircraft production, with the assorted engine factory expansion and excessive R&D of aircraft types that I now see were overrated (I 'm thinking mainly Tojo here). And as I look to the end game, a large percentage of this expansion was not needed at all and it certainly was not translated to actual strategic advantage on the map. A few figures to illustrate my point:

HI - 1.85m in the bank, making 15.2k and using 12.9k daily (+2.3k/day). The 50k spent monthly on pilot training is making a difference. I 've already started drawing trainees from the last cycle to reduce monthly HI expenditure.

Supply - 3.4m, of which only 1m is in Honshu, figures which haven't change at all for many months. There are 480 R&D factories left to repair.

Fuel - 6.2m, including the bunker, of which 4m are in Honshu (can last for 11 months).

Oil - 2.3m, of which 1.9 is in Honshu (can last for 8.5 months). Note: we didn't adjust oil to scen 2 levels when we corrected the initial design error. I should actually have 1.5 more than I have now.

Naval building - The only capital ship in the production que is the Musashi, which will be completed in May '44. After that, I will focus on accelerating destroyers and building all the submarines I possibly can. The HI expenditure is now at 5000 a day for the IJN and 1400 for merchant shipping and I will keep it that way for as long as I can. I will start making sacrifices if necessary of course, starting with the merchant shipping.

Armaments - 132k in reserve, making 470 per day.
Vehicles - 32k in reserve, making 265 per day. I turned this off for many months and it was a mistake. I need at least 65k to equip the delayed IJA units and I'll have that number by mid '44.

Aircraft production - 2253 factories, of which around 1000 could be turned turned off without effecting the air war much! A lot of aircraft, mainly Zekes and Tojos have been overbuilt and they have ample reserves with their factories turned off.
Same goes for engines (I could maybe have saved around 400k tons of supply).

R&D - I can't bother to calculate the amounts of supply I could have saved by not over-researching the Zero and Tojo lines (and some other types as well). I would need a carefully laid out plan, put in effect on 7/12/1941 to avoid all the wastage.

Or...this screenshot:


Conclusion - My fuel reserves are enough to last me a year or so. Assuming that a) I lose the DEI fuel by mid '44, b) supply reserves remain at current levels and c) my HI remains relatively intact, then the Home Islands industry can operate full time until mid '45, which means my current supply stockpiles could get me to '46. Therefore, my number one objective is to direct the Allied advance towards the DEI and away from the HI.
In short, keep the B-29s away from Japan. Retain the Kido Buttai in reserve to conserve fuel and fight the battles that matter, i.e defend the Marianas, the Kuriles, Luzon and everything behind them. Until then, fight a delaying battle, as I withdraw to my main defensive line.

Red line = Absolute National Defense Zone.
Yellow line = current line of resistance.
Orange line = second line of resistance, where I hope to channel the allied advanced.


_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 186
Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/3/2013 3:56:25 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Interesting find. Fascinating how close most of the games that reach the end game are to historical Japanese planning. Especially interesting is the bit on the aimed annual Japanese aircraft production, which was far beyond what the Japanese industry could achieve.

http://www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/MacArthur%20Reports/MacArthur%20V2%20P1/ch10.htm

"...The essential points of the Army-Navy Central Agreement embodying this vital revision of Central and South Pacific war strategy were as follows:

1. Key points in the southeast area, extending from Eastern New Guinea to the Solomon Islands, will be held as long as possible by destroying enemy forces whenever they attack.

2. With a view to the rapid completion of counteroffensive preparations, the following missions will be accomplished by the spring of 1944:
a. Defenses will be strengthened, and tactical bases developed, in the areas of the Marianas and Caroline Islands, Western New Guinea, and the Banda and Flores Seas.
b. Bases will be developed in the Philippines area for strategic and logistic support.
c. Ground, sea, and air strength will be built up in preparation for counteroffensive action.

3. In the event of an enemy approach toward the areas mentioned in paragraph 2a, powerful components of all arms will be concentrated against his main attacking front, and every means will be employed to destroy his forces by counteroffensive action before the attack is launched.

4. After the middle of 1944, if conditions permit, offensive operations will be undertaken from the area including Western New Guinea and the Banda and Flores Seas. Separate study will be made to determine the front on which such operations should be launched, and necessary preparations will be carried out accordingly."

"...Primary emphasis in these preparations was placed upon the development of air power. After the bitter lessons taught by the southeast area campaigns of 1942-43, Army and Navy strategists unanimously agreed that the air forces must be the pivotal factor in future operations, whether defensive or offensive. To successfully defend the new "absolute defense zone" against the steadily mounting enemy air strength, they believed it imperative to have 55,000 planes produced annually. At the same time a large number of air bases, echeloned in depth and mutually supporting, had to be built and equipped over the widely dispersed areas of the new defense zone.

To meet the first of these requirements was impossible considering the current production level and the overall natural resources.5 Therefore, at the Imperial conference of 30 September 1943, a compromise was reached which set a production goal of 40,000 planes for the fiscal year 1944, a goal still thought extremely difficult to attain. The airfield construction program was equally ambitious. In the area embracing Western New Guinea, the Moluccas, Celebes, and the islands of the Banda and Flores Seas, where the existing number of fields totalled only 27, plans were laid for the construction of 96 entirely new airfields and the completion of 7 others already partially built, bringing the total number of airfields planned for the area to 120.6 This program was to be completed by the spring or, at latest, by the summer of 1944..."



< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/3/2013 3:57:16 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 187
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/3/2013 10:11:36 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		watching your SE asia defense. Always frustrating for me.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 188
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/3/2013 10:56:11 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Yeah, it's already very frustrating. Here is a small update on the SE Fleet situation, as of December 21st.

Ground forces:
- Shortlands was lost and 4 base forces were destroyed. 2/3s of the 8th Div were flown out from Torokina. Together with naval units, the garrison is down to 195 AV without any supplies. Rabaul, Kavieng and Namatanai (17th Army) are adequately defended.
- It's the 18th Army section that is in complete disarray at the moment. Its units are in the middle of a long march through the jungles around Buna. Their destinations, Lae, Finchaven and Umboi island are very lightly defended and if attacked the 18th Army will be cut off.
- Horn Island and Merauke are completely inoperable and allied destroyers are venturing into the Torres Strait at will. The 42nd Div at Horn island is without supplies and is pounded by allied bombers every day (over 100 disabled squads).
- At the moment the 14th Army is transferring all its available forces (2 divs, 5 bdes) to the eastern part of the lesser Sunda islands. Sorong is built up to be the main rear area base. Darwin will be kept as a forward base, until the Aussies make a serious attempt to capture it. The most experienced IJA division (the 48th) is currently defending Darwin, supported by a tank regiment and heavy artillery.
- The northern coast of New Guinea is still undeveloped and will need engineers soon. I will try to defend Cenderawasih Bay (Biak), with everything forward being used to create as much delay as possible.

Air forces:
430 fighters remain operational and 130 are damaged. The majority is at Rabaul trying to keep the base open until the air transfer from Torokina is complete. Madang, Merauke and Horn island are closed. The only other usable airfields that remain open are Buna(6), Kavieng(4), Manus(5), Nazdab(4) and Namatanai(2). Of them, only Manus has fighter cover.

Naval forces:
2 CAs, 3 CLs and 11 DDs are at Manus, but I have no job for them at the moment. Mining, ASW and small scale troop transfers are ongoing in the Bismarck Sea.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 189
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/9/2013 3:12:36 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		28 De, 1943

SE Fleet:
Horn Island falls!
After intense aerial bombing and naval gunfire bombardments, the ill-supplied 42nd Div was no match for I US Corps. I managed to fly out about 100 AV, although the rest of the garrison (17.000 troops and 50 tanks) are PoWs now. My job now is to evacuate Merauke, which has no hope to withstand a similar attack. About 24.000 troops will be evacuated by air.
quote:

Ground combat at Horn Island (91,128)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 25926 troops, 465 guns, 535 vehicles, Assault Value = 972
Defending force 17155 troops, 264 guns, 199 vehicles, Assault Value = 261
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3
Allied adjusted assault: 1500
Japanese adjusted defense: 30

Allied assault odds: 50 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Horn Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2487 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 157 disabled
Non Combat: 109 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 53 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 194 (170 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Vehicles lost 183 (183 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
649 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 76 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 22 (1 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (4 destroyed, 31 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2/4th Armoured Regiment
802nd Cmbt Engineer Battalion
6th Infantry Division
33rd Infantry Division
18th Cmbt Engineer Regiment
2/6th Armoured Regiment
205th Field Artillery Battalion
2/533rd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion
1/533rd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion
1st Medium Regiment
3/533rd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion
I US Corps
2nd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
42nd Division
14th Tank Regiment
17th Naval Construction Battalion
1st Art.Mortar Regiment
25th Special Base Force
51st Field AA Battalion
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th JNAF AF Unit
24th Fld AA Machinecannon Company
10th RF Gun Battalion
31st Field AA Battalion
64th Field AA Battalion
21st Fld AA Gun Co
53rd JNAF AF Unit
62nd JNAF AF Unit
29th Fld AA Gun Co
25th Army /1


In Norhtern Australia, the 2nd Australian Div (reinf.) is marching north towards Darwin. I will make a stand there to prevent an early offensive into the eastern DEI. I need more time to prepare adequate defenses in depth.

The next defense line is Timor-Babar-Saumlaki-Taberfame-Dobo-Timosoeka, manned by the 14th Army. Most bases are garrisoned by an infantry brigade or a reinforced regiment and forts are generally size 3 or lower. I am moving lots of engineers from other areas to start developing defenses in depth, as far back as Mindanao.

Burma:
The allied bridgehead across the Salween river is growing. Michael reinforced with two Indian divisions and more units will cross the river very soon. The Australian division that made the original breakthrough has advanced to the hex SE of Mulmein, which is defended by 50 AV only. I am trying to contain the bridgehead as best I can. About 500 AV are marching west from Rahaeng. Another infantry division will arrive at Pisanoluke in a few days. If this attempt fails, I will withdraw the 15th Army from the Chiang-Mai area.

4th Fleet:
A partial withdrawal from Kusaie island and Ponape is taking place. Kusaie is left with 120 AV behind size 6 forts, Ponape with 200 AV also behind size 6 forts. The Western Carolines will get an infantry regiment from Kusaie and the 21st Div will move from Ponape to Umboi island, to prevent the Allies form breaking through the Dampier Straits, while the 18th Army is marching in the Papua jungles.

Meanwhile, 20 Div is transfered from Korea to the Marianas, bringing the total AV to 2200.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/9/2013 4:15:45 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 190
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/15/2013 1:33:51 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Jan 3, 1944

Burma:
The Allied bridgehead over the Salween is checked. Reinforcements arriving from Bangkok prevented the isolation of Mulmein. Another division will arrive within the week.
quote:

Ground combat at Moulmein (55,55)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 46891 troops, 915 guns, 1243 vehicles, Assault Value = 1488
Defending force 36867 troops, 409 guns, 158 vehicles, Assault Value = 982
Allied adjusted assault: 1957
Japanese adjusted defense: 3613
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
669 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 69 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2090 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 438 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 42 disabled
Guns lost 113 (5 destroyed, 108 disabled)
Vehicles lost 54 (5 destroyed, 49 disabled)

Assaulting units:
11th (East African) Division
20th Indian Division
150th RAC Regiment
Provisionl Tank Brigade
50th Tank Brigade
2nd British Division
23rd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
2/9th Field Regiment
X' Force
XXXIII Indian Corps
17th Indian Light AA Regiment
101st Heavy AA Regiment
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
24th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
25th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
2/11th Field Regiment
4th West African AA Regiment
20th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
23rd Division
2nd RTA/A Division
1st RTA Division
38th Ind Engineer Regiment
2nd RTA/B Division
2nd RTA/C Division
2nd Army
13th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
101st Machine Canno AA Battalion
32nd Field AA Battalion
48th Field AA Battalion
3rd Machine Cannon AA Battalion
36th JAAF AF Bn
21st JAAF AF Bn
27th Fld AA Gun Co
93rd JAAF AF Bn
11th Ind.AA Gun Co
70th JAAF AF Bn
96th JAAF AF Bn
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 56,55 (near Moulmein)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 19566 troops, 343 guns, 185 vehicles, Assault Value = 1095
Defending force 7176 troops, 61 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 236
Allied adjusted assault: 160
Japanese adjusted defense: 169
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
929 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 84 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
442 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 52 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled

Assaulting units:
25th Indian Division
Gardner's Horse Regiment
22nd (East African) Brigade
5th Indian Division

Defending units:
26th Ind.Mixed Brigade
6th RTA/A Division

Reinforcements are on the way, but it's doubtful the hex can be held until they arrive.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 56,56 (near Moulmein)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 9599 troops, 69 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 347
Defending force 6138 troops, 51 guns, 119 vehicles, Assault Value = 222
Allied adjusted assault: 114
Japanese adjusted defense: 413
Allied assault odds: 1 to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
161 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 26 (3 destroyed, 23 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
606 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Assaulting units:
17th Indian Division

Defending units:
9th Armored Car Co
3rd Tank Regiment
2nd Amphibious Brigade


The bad news is that altitude limits are now off and the P-47 gained complete air supremacy for the Allies, allowing them to close Rangoon for good! Some 200 fighters were destroyed or damaged. Supplies in Rangoon have dropped down to 35k tons and enemy cruisers are now free to intercept my SLOC and bombard Mulmein. I'm constricted to submarine resupply runs from Tavoy and Mulmein. All my float planes are in the Southeast Area. I moved 15 Emilies to Bangkok to begin air transfer of the 14th Div from Rangoon.

SE Area Fleet:
Evacuation of Merauke by air continues unhindered. The garrison is down to 14k.
My remnants in Horn island are destroyed, but the 42nd Div is saved (only 100 AV at Terapo).
Two Kiwi brigades landed at Fenri island, just one hex SE of Rabaul, which is still closed, with 65k tons of supply and more than 600 AV behind size 5 forts.
The 18th Army continues its long march through the jungles of Papua. The situation around Lae-Finschaven-Umboi is improved with the arrival of the 21st Div from Ponape.
South of Darwin, Kathrine is lost. Two Australian divisions with tank support are advancing north.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 191
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/18/2013 6:56:24 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Jan 6, 1944

SE Area:
I forgot to add that Rabaul is now closed. Michael ignored the 450 mines and coastal naval gun emplacements and dared to sent his battleships to bombard Rabaul. As a result, my airforce was grounded before sunrise and the enemy 4E bombers just finished the job. 450 aircraft destroyed on the ground, another 250 damaged and stuck in New Britain.

At Merauke, 13.500 troops have already been transfered by air to Saumlaki, 10.500 remain. In 5 days there will be nobody left at Merauke, except some heavy equipment, which will make a 3 months long march through the jungle to Hollandia.

1st and 2nd Australian Divs capture Katherine unopposed.

Burma:
The enemy has begun daily artillery barrages in Rangoon. They are very much in my favor, thanks to heavy artillery being present, but they consume about 500 tons of supplies daily. Stockpiles are down to 32.000 tons.
I hope bad weather keeps the allied bombers grounded for a while to allow Rangoon's airfield to be repaired. Damage is already down to 65, but my fighter groups need more time to recuperate.
About 100 AV have been transfered by barges and air transports from Rangoon, mainly the 3rd Tank Division. I will leave 1/3 of it at Rangoon and the rest will be moved to Mulmein. All other units at Rangoon, will lose about 5% of their equipment to fill their TOEs quickly, after their eventual destruction (which I place in April-May).

Meanwhile, a reorganisation of my convoy system has reduced daily fuel consumption by 15% (early estimates).

< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/18/2013 8:04:13 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 192
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/18/2013 9:03:24 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		Sorry about Rabaul. In this game you have to make big bases to get coordination for strikes and to defend against massed 4Es, but eventually the Allies will always get to them. It's the price of the stalling it caused, and if you're losing 600 planes in Rabaul in early 44 you should be pretty pleased!

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 193
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 11/18/2013 9:27:52 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Thanks Obvert, I'm taking notes from your game against Jockmeister to prepare for the blows that are coming. I'm finding there is enjoyment to be found in 1944 for Japan. Michael is slightly outplaying me at the moment, without the differences in equipment taken into account.

Regarding airbases, I think size 9 airfields are a bit of a cheat. We both took advantage of them in this game, so nothing unfair here, but in my next game I think a ban on building size 9 AFs must be considered.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/18/2013 10:30:42 PM >

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 194
Battle of Umboi - 11/26/2013 4:09:59 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Jan 12, 44

Kido Buttai vs allied CVEs!

SE Area:
It was clear that an allied invasion of Papua was imminent, as enemy landing ships were amassing in the islands east of Milne bay. The invasion came on January 11th, way sooner than I had wanted to. Most of the 18th Army is still marching through the jungles. Only one brigade is defending Lae, while fragments of two divisions are defending Finchaven and Umboi. The latter should have been garrisoned by the entire 21st Div, but the unloading was cut short due to fear of allied air strikes. As a result, only 180 AV are on Umboi island. Finschaven has only 110 AV, not much of a force against the 4th US Marine Div.

The enemy carrier force was parked only one hex southeast of Finschaven, as is Michael’s habbit. He avoids the unreliable LRCAP mission, using leaky CAP instead. I ordered Kido Buttai to sprint from its base (Wolelai) to one hex west of Manus, aiming for a 7-hex strike. 11 carriers split in two TFs, the smaller one being the three Unyu-class CVs. Unfortunately, this smaller TF reacted to the enemy carriers and ended up two hexes south of Manus, As a result, it suffered the allied counterattack alone. Had it not reacted, I think the counterstrike would have been holely ineffective, having to breakthrough the full CAP of the Kido Buttai, plus 200 LBA fighters based at Manus. It could be the case that a counterstrike could be avoided entirely, if both TFs had remained near Manus.

250 torpedo bombers were based at Buna. Of them, 200 couldn't find their targets. The rest were shredded to pieces.

Anyway, I deem the result a tactical draw. 8 allied CVEs and CVL Hermes sunk, for the loss of CV Katsuragi. Amagi is severly damaged, doubtful if it can be saved. Unyu is damaged also, but will likely survive, if it’s not attacked again tomorrow.
This TF can do 4 knots at full speed and 2 knots at cruise speed. I will risk full speed because there is nothing to prevent the allied CVs, which avoided KB’s attack entirely, from crossing the Vitiaz strait. The main KB taskforce, led by Yamaguchi, will escort the damaged carriers to safety.

Air losses were 270 KB aircraft vs 220 enemy carrier aircraft. 105 elite pilots were lost, but I have plenty of them in reserve in order to withstand many battles like this.

Here is the report:
quote:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Finschhafen at 101,126
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid detected at 119 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 39 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 176
B6N2 Jill x 137
B6N2a Jill x 26
D4Y1 Judy x 10
D4Y3 Judy x 63

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 172
F6F-3 Hellcat x 492

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 8 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 42 destroyed, 14 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
B6N2a Jill: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 16 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 5 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Suwannee
CVE Nassau
CVE Chenango, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 3, heavy damage
CVE Santee
CVE Barnes, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Prince William, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Natoma Bay, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Manila Bay, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVE Liscome Bay, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Corregidor, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Anzio, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Breton
BB Colorado
CA Chester
CLAA Prince Robert, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CLAA San Juan
CVE Altamaha
DD Monaghan
CA Astoria
CL Hobart
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Finschhafen at 101,126
Weather in hex: Severe storms
Raid detected at 117 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 69
B6N2 Jill x 45
D4Y1 Judy x 54

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 172
F6F-3 Hellcat x 443

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 14 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 20 destroyed, 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 21 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Perth
CVE Liscome Bay, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CLAA Prince Robert, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Astoria
CVL Hermes, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DE Engstrom
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Rambutyo at 101,121
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 104
A6M5c Zero x 10
N1K1-J George x 47

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 126
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 62
SBD-5 Dauntless x 186
TBF-1 Avenger x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 6 destroyed
A6M5c Zero: 2 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 9 destroyed
SB2C-1C Helldiver: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 24 destroyed, 21 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Katsuragi, Bomb hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Amagi, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Unryu, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
DD Matsukaze, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Harukaze
DD Ikazuchi

On the ground, a deliberate attack dropped the forts at Umboi to 2, but knocked out 84 enemy squads vs 15 of mine. At Finschaven, the attack made clear that the Allies will soon have a foothold in New Guinea.

In other news, Rabaul is still closed and will likely remain so for the remainder of the war. If the Allies begin a historical march along the north coast of New Guinea, Rabaul and the whole 17th Army will be evacuated by air.

Burma:
The main battle is for the hex SE of Mulmein, as I try to contain the allied bridgehead. A deliberate attack was repulsed. We both are able to bomb each other's troops. Rangoon is barely open, but the 3rd Air Div is still in the process of rebuilding its fighter force.

Meanwhile, I decided to use my long range navy level bombers to strike the allied rear bases, which were unprotected. This will hopefully compel Michael, to keep some fighters away from the front.
quote:

Morning Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 66

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 16 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 19 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 18 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 2 destroyed on ground

Airbase hits 45
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 86


China:
Strategic bombing has commenced. Around 120 HI points and 80 LI points have been destroyed over 3 days.270 fighters and 320 bombers are committed. The Chinese airforce is concentrated in the central plains of Chungking and my Oscars can only sweep at extreme range.

The entirety of the 11th Army (2500 AV) has been designated as strategic reserve of the Chinese Exp. Army. There isn't much it can do without outside help.


< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/26/2013 5:26:46 PM >

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Post #: 195
RE: Battle of Umboi - 11/29/2013 1:54:33 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Jan 16, 1944

The enemy CVs retreated a few hexes to the south of Umboi. Amagi sucumbed to its wounds and Unryu was detected by an enemy sub. 3 torpedoes were too much for her... so 3 Unryu class CVs are down. In terms of VPs and aircraft capacity, we both lost the same amount more or less, although I hoped to escape any retaliatory strikes. In the future I will aim for 8-hex strikes. Dive bombers will be removed from KB, fighter and torpedo bomber groups will expand.

Both Finchaven and Umboi are still holding, but the latter is out of supplies and the former is too weak to hold another attack, made weaker by a naval bombardment. I decided to fly in an infantry regiment from Manus.

180 fighters are at Manus, all I have in the 18th Area Army sector. The rest are pulled back to Sorong for recuperation.

The evacuation of Merauke is complete. All that is left is heavy equipment.

At Darwin, an Australian Corps is at its outskirts, but it looks like my garrison is strong enough to hold for now. Western Australia is almost emptied.

In Burma, 3 enemy CVs are spotted heading into the Andaman Sea! Mulmein was bombarded by a cruiser TF. My stack SE of Mulmein is bombed daily.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/29/2013 2:55:31 PM >

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Post #: 196
RE: Battle of Umboi - 11/29/2013 5:13:12 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

Jan 16, 1944

The enemy CVs retreated a few hexes to the south of Umboi. Amagi sucumbed to its wounds and Unryu was detected by an enemy sub. 3 torpedoes were too much for her... so 3 Unryu class CVs are down. In terms of VPs and aircraft capacity, we both lost the same amount more or less, although I hoped to escape any retaliatory strikes. In the future I will aim for 8-hex strikes. Dive bombers will be removed from KB, fighter and torpedo bomber groups will expand.

Both Finchaven and Umboi are still holding, but the latter is out of supplies and the former is too weak to hold another attack, made weaker by a naval bombardment. I decided to fly in an infantry regiment from Manus.

180 fighters are at Manus, all I have in the 18th Area Army sector. The rest are pulled back to Sorong for recuperation.

The evacuation of Merauke is complete. All that is left is heavy equipment.

At Darwin, an Australian Corps is at its outskirts, but it looks like my garrison is strong enough to hold for now. Western Australia is almost emptied.

In Burma, 3 enemy CVs are spotted heading into the Andaman Sea! Mulmein was bombarded by a cruiser TF. My stack SE of Mulmein is bombed daily.


I'll be interested to see how your move with the KB moving to only F and TB. I feel like the Judys get increasingly good through the variants and especially with the 800kg bomb on the last version. It ask becomes a question of if you have enough TT for more than one strike if you have only TB.

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Post #: 197
RE: Battle of Umboi - 11/29/2013 5:36:15 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		The largest Japanese CVs can supply 45 torpedoes, so that's the upper limit for their TB groups. Fighter groups will fill the rest of the space. If Michael keeps his habbit of parking his CVs one hex off his invasion target, then an 8-hex strike is more likely to succeed and DBs are not going to participate in that. They will launch strikes from whatever land bases are still operable at the time of an invasion (that's why I need a lot of level 2 airfields). After the first day, all air groups will be pretty beat up and the DB groups can rebase to their mother ships to continue the fight. That's the theory anyway. Clearly it's a gamble. I 'm interested to see how that goes too, but it will be probably be many months before another carrier battle occurs.

Edit: In 1945, the D4Y4 arrives, which carries the 800 Kg bomb, and my carriers will surely revert to normal configuration then.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 11/29/2013 6:40:45 PM >

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Post #: 198
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 12/4/2013 10:43:37 AM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		1944 strategy:

In post #186 the screenshot shows the Absolute Defense Zone which the Empire plans to defend with all means at its disposal. Three separate Decisive Battle Areas (DBAs) are designated. The Kuril islands, the Mariana islands and the Philippines. Japan proper, the Bonins, the Ryukus and Formosa are excluded (for 1944 at least) because it’s highly unlikely that the enemy would dare to advance directly against bases outside of allied fighter range. For the same reason, the Marianas are considered the least likely to be attacked of the three DBAs, unless Wake and/or the Carolines are lost. The Kurils on the other hand are likely to be attacked in 1944, after the winter. The problem with defending the Northeast Area is that it's too far away from other Areas, which makes early warning absolutely imperative. It is for this reason that 5 Glen equipped subs will redeploy in the NE Area immediately, to keep a watchful eye on the Aleutians. The most important DBA and most likely to be attacked in 1944, according the the Imperial General Headquarters, is the Philippines.

The Imperial General HQ plans to wage a combined arms battle at one of the designated DBAs with the maximum land, air and naval forces at its disposal. Until that moment arrives, the forces defending the current frontline are used to delay only. The bulk of the IJN will be held in reserve, unless a favorable opportunity presents itself.

The general plan is to create a highly mobile LBA reserve of 2500 aircraft, which can be rapidly redeployed to the attacked DBA. This force will be kept in central Luzon, Formosa, the Ryukus and the Home Islands. Target date to assemble this force is July 1st. 3/5s are already present on the map, the other 2/5s will arrive before July. The two responsible HQs are the 1st IJNAF Air Fleet (at Guam), with three air flotillas under its command, the 13th, 61st and 62nd (at Manila, Badeldaob and Saipan respectively), and the 51st IJAAF Air Division based in the Home Islands.

The Imperial General HQ plans to commit over 4000 aircaft in the Decisive Battle. 2500 of these will be the above mentioned reserve airforce, 1100 will be carrier based aircraft and the rest will be whatever air units are fighting at the front in that particular sector. On the ground, the most suitable area to assemble the IJA reserves is the Philippines. At least 10 divisions are required (14th Area Army, 14th and 21st Armies with 4 armored divs).

Developed bases and aviation support must be present in the three DBAs to support rapid deployment. The Marianas and the Kurils are almost fully developed. The Philippines are not and will receive the bulk of the engineering force. The plan is to create 2-4 lvl 9 AFs behind the front (Panay and central Luzon) and many small lvl 2 AFs at the front (Mindanao, Samar, Leyte, southern Luzon), with medium AFs in between.

Other forces: 30 fleet submarines, 50 midget subs, 50 MTBs, 50 subchasers, the entire fleet of fast transports. 2000 mines will be stockpiled to be used in the crucial sectors just days before the invasion.


< Message edited by Olorin -- 12/4/2013 11:45:49 AM >

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Post #: 199
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 12/10/2013 5:05:22 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Jan 23, 1944

SE Area:
Umboi and Finchaven were lost a few days ago. 2/3rds of the 18th Army are still out of position, but the 58th Div has reached Lae. Its other two divisions will continue their march through the jungle until they reach Madang and Hansa Bay. So far, enemy bombers have ignored them and are solely concentrated on keeping Rabaul closed. The 21st Div is at Saidor with only 50% strength. The other half was destroyed at Umboi.

My air transports are constantly evacuating troops from Rabaul, which is overstacked and its supply stockpile is dwindling (currently 33k tons).

In northern Australia, a minor tactical mistake by Michael was exploited by my two mobile regiments. They destroyed an enemy tank unit, but Michael reacted by committing 4E bombers to close Darwin. The rest of the 1st(?) Aus Corps is now inside Darwin.

Burma:
A minor air-naval offensive was launched, involving KB2, Haruna & Kongo plus 4 cruisers and 16 destroyers. The recuperated 3rd Air Div & 22nd Air Flotilla also took part in it with 500 aircraft. The objectives were:
- Resupply Rangoon. Achieved with the delivery of 20k tons of supplies, bringing the total to 35k.
- Withdraw 3rd Tank Div from Rangoon. Achieved.
- Lay minefields around Rangoon. Partially achieved, 3 out of 5 intended minefields were created.
- Compel the enemy to stop using Pegu airfield. Achieved by BB night bombardment.
- Compel the enemy to spread his fighters to cover rear bases. Achieved by a KB2 raid near Akyab and Nells attacking airfields at Ramree and Akyab.
- Sink the enemy cruisers that were bombarding Mulmein constantly. Not achieved. Thunderstorms made my combined KB2+Nell naval strikes very inefficient, as half the bombers lost their way. CA Hawkins is reported sunk by one torpedo and one bomb hit.

My air losses were double the enemy's, but his bombers took a hit when they tried to bomb Rangoon before Michael's fighters arrived.
Overall, a productive operation, which will be repeated in two weeks. Main objective will be resupplying Rangoon.

On the ground, I unexpectedly lost the hex SE of Mulmein, which is not good at all. Constant bombing by enemy bombers disrupted my forces, but still, it was unexpected. Forces rushed to halt enemy advance successfully, but Michael now controls the hexside to Mulmein. The Southern Army reserve (25th Army, at Singapore) is ordered to retake the hex asap. The 3rd Tank Div is reassigned to the 25A HQ for this operation.

China:
Strategic bombing continues, weather permitting. Chinese industry in Sian and Kumming is completely destroyed.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 12/10/2013 6:08:50 PM >

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Post #: 200
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 1/18/2014 10:02:27 AM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		Feb 17, 1944

Almost another month has passed, time for an update.

Burma:
- 20k tons of supplies were delivered to Rangoon, at the expense of 10 xAKs.
- The counterattack by the 25th Army is partially successful. One hex is gained, but the Allies repelled the attack in another (SE of Mulmein). 100 Franks were lost while strafing. The enemy is temporarily out of supply in this hex.
- In order to bolster the above attack, Mulmein was weakened. Michael took advantage and reduced the forts to size 2, in a series of deliberate attacks. I reinforced and stabilized the situation there.


SE Area:
- My defenses are rapidly disintegrating! After taking Umboi Island and Finschaven, the Allies landed at Hansa Bay and took it within a day. The 18th Army is trapped! I must evacuate the 75.000 troops by air. The trouble is that the 17th Army in New Britain and Manus is also essentially cut off and is just waiting for its supplies to run out. 4 DDs were lost while trying to deliver supplies to Kavieng.
- Michael could exploit this success all the way to Mindanao if he wished it. I only have small units garrisoning the northern coast of New Guinea. Hollandia is my strongest point with 200 AV. Three infantry brigades are headed to Cenderawasih Bay.


Future Plans:
Anywhere I look I see potential for disaster. A shake up of Japanese defense plans is needed urgently.

In Burma, the current lines must hold for as long as they can, because there isn't a really suitable place to defend further back. At the moment, there are 2 1/2 divs at Rangoon (28th Army), 3 divs at Mulmein (2nd Army), 5 divs from Mulmain to Rahaeng (25th Army) and 4 1/2 divs around Chiang Mai. I plan to evacuate the 28th Army from Rangoon in mid March, buy out one division from Manchuria and withdraw the 25th Army from the Area completely. This will leave the Burma Area Army with 11 1/2 divs to man the line Mulmein-Rahaeng-Indonesian border.

In the Southeast Area Fleet, the 180.000 troops of the 8th Area Army must be evacuated by air transports and destroyers running fast transport missions wherever possible. At a rate of 3000 per day, 2 months will be needed to transport all of them. Priority is given to the 18th Army at Lae-Nazdab-Saidor-Madang. All these troops are essentially irrelevant for defensive plans in the short term.

In the eastern DEI (2nd Area Army), the frontlines are manned by the 14th Army and the second line by the 19th Army. Darwin is still defended by one reinforced division, which will have to be withdrawn to Timor by the end of March at the latest.

The 21st Army will redeploy to Mindanao and Luzon.

The offensive I had planned in southeast China is canceled.



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Post #: 201
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 2/10/2014 10:52:11 AM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		March 1, 1944

SE Area

- After taking Hansa Bay, Michael descended on Madang and took it with ease. No matter...my float transport planes can rescue the survivors from a coastal hex without a base. The 21st, 42nd and 47th divisions are at 30% strength, and almost entirely transfered to Hollandia and Sami. There is a full strength division still at Lae that will be evacuated last.

- Manus was invaded and the 1st Guards Division crumbled easily under the weight of the combined sea-air-land Allied assault. Elements of it were rescued, but it will be a few months before it's back to full strength again.

- Supply at Rabaul is now in the reds. The SE Area Fleet HQ and the 17th Army HQ are flown out.

- Hollandia is the only forward airfield (size 3). Naturally it attracted the attention of enemy 4E bombers and was closed easily.

- 10 DDs were lost in a botched fast transport mission to Hollandia.

- Michael capture a small dot base NW of Kavieng, to complete the encirclement of the 8th Area Army. While his CVs were busy supporting the landing...

- ...KB attacked allied shipping at Hansa Bay and Manus. Several APs, AKAs and LSTs were sunk but I was hoping for more carnage. The damage dealt by this strike is difficult to assess. I lost 50 attack bombers and Akagi took a torpedo (she will heal in 3 months).


Burma

- The combined British-Chinese-Indian Corps at Mulmein reduced the forts to size 1, but took heavy casualties (500 disablements).

- Half of the 25th Army's strength is withdrawn to Singapore, after its counterattack SE of Mulmein failed.

- The operation to evacuate every soldier from Rangoon (and every kilo of supplies) will commence in 10 days. The IJAAF is kept on the ground until then.


Other stuff

- The IJ Airforce is undergoing a critical expansion in several air groups. Lots of size 49 groups are created.

- Building up the Philippines is proceeding nicely. Manila AF is at level 6.55, Iolio at 3.6.

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Post #: 202
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/5/2014 6:18:07 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		The game is still on, but pace has been very slow recently, because of me (laptop dead for two months, summer vacations).

The date is May 29, 1944. I'll do an update later.

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Post #: 203
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/5/2014 7:28:19 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		May 29, 1944

First the short version:

Burma/Siam:
Rangoon and Mulmein have fallen. Junyo, Hiyo and Zuiho were sunk, while evacuating Ranggoon by sea. 10 IJA and 6 Siamese divs hold the Allies in Tavoy, Pisanoluke and the jungles around Bangkok.

SE Area Fleet:
New Britain and New Guinea were cut off by deep Allied offensives, all the way to Hollandia and Sami. 100k Japanese were evacuated by air. Kavieng still has two infantry regiments supplied by subs. 3 Unryu-class carriers were sunk in exchange for an equal amount of Allied deckspace (CVEs only though).

Eastern DEI:
Dobo and Taberfame have fallen. Darwin was evacuated by air. Sorong, Babo, Saumlaki and every base in between are my next MLR.

Victory:
I am now behind in VPs, having only 46k while the Allies have 6k more than me.

Other news:
Yamato took two torpedo hits while redeploying to Singapore. Flotation damage is 40. It will have to spend the next 270 days in the shipyards of Kure.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 9/5/2014 9:04:52 PM >

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Post #: 204
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/5/2014 7:59:27 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		And now the long version:

With post #187 as reference, I’ll try to give you an overview of the current strategic situation. Overall, I am not happy about any of the two hot theaters (Burma, SE Area Fleet). Both are on the verge of collapsing.

The New Britain/New Guinea area has fallen, mostly by Allied penetrations of the 8th Area Army’s operational depth, cutting off 100k Japanese troops. Most of these troops were evacuated by air quite successfully. What is more disconcerting is that the Allies have managed to obtain a foothold in the Eastern DEI (Dobo, Taberfame), without taking any losses, because I was too fearful of facing the Allied juggernaut directly. Darwin was evacuated by air. Certain oil centers are now within range of the dreaded B-29. Balikpapan, Samarinda and Tarakan are now defended by 50 Nicks each. That is how many I can spare at the moment. I’d like to buy out and convert all 2E bombers lying around in Manchuria and the Home Islands, but I lack the PPs.

Next line of defense in the Eastern DEI is…everwhere. Every front line base has a brigade equivalent, all the way back to Mindanao, where my main stand is going to take place. The reason for choosing to spread out my infantry is that Michael likes carefully prepared and massively escorted, single-axis, short offensives. He likes to have at least 30 planning points, lands with two-three divs only, but I think he has more in reserve in case the first wave fails. As I see it, there is no point in offering serious resistance yet. Anything I can master right now will surely be destroyed without achieving much. So for now, I’m on delay mode.

On the other hand, the Allies will find it easier to advance westward to Java, since there are no ground units behind Koepang. I don’t believe I can defend this region if he chooses to go that route. In any case, I think I will have Palembang in my possession long after its oil fields are torched by Allied bombers. Right now I place that event in late ’44. After that, my economy has 10 months before my oil and fuel reserves are consumed. And after that, the 2m HI points that I managed to save will have to be managed carefully for the remainder of the war. Not looking very bright. This is my main motivation for seeking a decisive battle in order to compel the Allies to sue for peace before the Japanese economy crumbles.

In Burma… there is no Burma any more, at least not in red color. Rangoon and Mulmein have fallen. I committed a strategic blunder here… I lost Hiyo, Junyo and Zuiho while trying to evacuate Rangoon by sea. It would be far cheaper to evacuate by air, as I have done in the SE Area Fleet, or just leave those troops to delay the enemy from descending to Mulmein too early. Anyway, what’s done is done.

The Allies are now bogged down in the jungles around Bangkok. Tavoy still holds, but is subjected to daily naval bombardments. In total, 10 IJA divisions are defending this area. There is also the Siamese Army, but it will inexplicably withdraw in three months or so. That’s going to be critical. Once my forces break there is little to stop the Allies from advancing to Saigon and Hanoi. I am using all PPs to redeploy more divisions from Manchuria.

Regarding the Decisive Battle Area of the Philippine Islands: as per post #187, a LBA reserve of 1900 airplanes is already assembled in Panay and Luzon under the HQs of the 14th Air Fleet and the 1st Air Army, well ahead the target date of the 1st of July. This force is excluding all air formations currently at the front. When the times comes these formations will concentrate at the Decisive Battle Area. There is also the Kido Buttai which can master 850 carrier based aircraft.

July is no longer the target date for the Decisive Battle of the Philippines, it’s too early. It looks like the Allies will reach the area in the fall of ’44. Until then, the air reserve will have reached a strength of 4000 aircraft.

On the ground, the target is still 15 divisions. Currently there are only 10 equivalents in place.

At sea, the Yamato will be out of action for the rest of ’44 at least, but the Musashi was finally commissioned just in time to replace the Yamato. The IJN will be preserved until the right moment comes. Then… it’s all in.

< Message edited by Olorin -- 9/5/2014 9:19:51 PM >

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Post #: 205
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/6/2014 2:25:22 PM   
MrBlizzard


Posts: 636
Joined: 4/16/2012
From: Italy
Status: offline 		Another game that goes to the end, nice!
How are your supplies-fuel stocks?

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Blizzard

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 206
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/6/2014 3:56:08 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		I just managed to get the tracker in working order again.
Fuel reserves are 4 million.
Oil 2m.

Supply is critically low, only 300k in the Home Islands, but I can ship just enough to keep the front units in fighting condition. There was a bug that cost me around 250k :(

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to MrBlizzard)
Post #: 207
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/17/2014 2:22:47 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		We are in June '44.

In Burma, Tavoy fends off another allied assault but it will soon fall if I don't reinforce.

In Eastern DEI, Sorong's airfield is pasted by naval bombardments and 4E bombers. I lost 200 aircraft and the airbase is now closed for good.
An invasion of Kaimana follows, with the usual Allied Death Start in support.

As Kaimana garrison was retreating, Michael sent two bombardment TFs to Sorong. I spotted them one day earlier off Biak and decided it was a good time to employ the KB. I deployed 6 subs on the expected enemy route in order to spoil the bombardment TF and it worked. They bombarded the base but didn't manage to head back to safety when the sun arose.

Thus, the full might of the KB was unleashed against a handful of allied light cruisers and Fletcher DDs.
The result?
1 CL and 2 DDs sunk, 50 attack bombers shot down.


quote:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Sorong at 82,107
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 9 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Mobile, Torpedo hits 1
DD Hazelwood
CL Columbia

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x G3M3 Nell launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 83,107
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y1 Frances x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y1 Frances: 5 damaged
P1Y1 Frances: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Biloxi
CL Santa Fe

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x P1Y1 Frances bombing from 6000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Sorong at 82,107

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 54
B6N2a Jill x 69
D4Y1 Judy x 28
D4Y2 Judy x 10
D4Y3 Judy x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2a Jill: 8 damaged
B6N2a Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 2 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 4 destroyed by flak
D4Y2 Judy: 2 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
CL Cleveland, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Montpelier
DD Cony, Bomb hits 1
CL Columbia, Bomb hits 2
DD Marshall, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Mobile, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Miller
DD Heermann
DD Claxton
DD Hazelwood
DD Healy

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
11 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
10 x D4Y2 Judy releasing from 3000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
19 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
8 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
18 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
11 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DD Marshall
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 83,107
Weather in hex: Heavy rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 10
B6N2a Jill x 77
D4Y3 Judy x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2a Jill: 14 damaged
B6N2a Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 10 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Birmingham, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Biloxi
DD Reid
CL Santa Fe, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Downes
DD Shaw
DD Case
DD Perkins

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
3 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
25 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
26 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
9 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
13 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 83,107
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M3 Nell x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 9 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
DD Perkins
CL Biloxi
CL Santa Fe

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x G3M3 Nell launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sorong at 82,107
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 64
B6N2a Jill x 92
D4Y3 Judy x 41

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2a Jill: 9 damaged
B6N2a Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 5 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Columbia, Bomb hits 3, on fire
DD Claxton
CL Mobile, Bomb hits 1
CL Montpelier, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Marshall
CL Cleveland, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Cony
DD Healy
DD Colahan, Bomb hits 1
DD Miller
DD Hazelwood

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
23 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
18 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
17 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
9 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
19 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
7 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
11 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
3 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Columbia
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Montpelier
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 83,107
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2a Jill x 46
D4Y3 Judy x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2a Jill: 9 damaged
B6N2a Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
CL Santa Fe, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Shaw
DD Flusser
CL Birmingham
CL Biloxi, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Downes

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
12 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
26 x B6N2a Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
2 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CL Biloxi
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


How to explain these results? Is this what the Kido Buttai can offer in '44?
Bad weather alone can't account for the poor aiming of my bombers. The Fletcher-class destroyers must be very good at avoiding torpedoes. Flak was lethal. My bomber pilots were not the absolute best I could deploy (those are kept in reserve until I decide to have a carrier vs carrier battle).

Thoughts?

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 208
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/17/2014 9:07:01 PM   
Yaab


Posts: 4552
Joined: 11/8/2011
From: Poland
Status: offline 		Yep, DDs are expert at avoiding torpedoes. DDs combine high manoeuvrability + high max speed, and sometimes, numerous heavy DP guns. Torpedoes are nasty for ships with low manoeuvrability (CAs, BBs, xAKs, xAPs etc.).

Additionally, bad weather really ruins torpedo runs.

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 209
RE: Japanese Defense, '44-'45 - 9/17/2014 9:39:13 PM   
setloz

 

Posts: 97
Joined: 1/14/2013
From: Romania
Status: offline 		I believe there are several factors here:
- relatively small and very fast/very maneuverable ships
- very heavy FLAK will light-up a lot of planes and damage even more because none of the IJN DB/TB have armor. DBB increases FLAK values and it adds up to the change Michaelm did in one of the patches that also increased FLAK efficiency.
- pilot quality - and I may stand corrected here - I'm under the impression that great DB pilots launch at 1000ft, good ones launch at 2000 ft and average ones launch at 3000 ft. And I noticed a large number of DB launching at 3000 ft (which means less accuracy).
- weather.

Oh, and I almost forgot. DDB has reduced Torpedo Accuracy for the Japanese..by quite a lot comparing to stock. And a bit lower accuracy and effect for the bombs as well iirc.

(in reply to Yaab)
Post #: 210
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