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Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 4:56:12 PM   
Max 86


Posts: 699
Joined: 11/6/2007
Status: offline 		With the spread of Ebola and the Enterovirus here in the US and with Ebola expected in the UK and France in about a month I was wondering if our planet has reached a population tipping point to where Mother Nature steps in and delivers a rather brutal 'population readjustment' with plagues and the likes.

http://news.yahoo.com/high-risk-ebola-could-reach-france-uk-end-113015476.html

As one doctor said, any person can get on a plane and be anywhere else in the world in 24 hrs and that levels the playing field, biologically speaking.

I would like to think we are better prepared to handle a virus versus the black plague back in the day but how well is your area prepared? Are any of us really ready for such an event? Are any of us more prepared that the native Americans were for small pox?

Thoughts anyone?

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 5:10:31 PM   
bairdlander2


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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 5:31:42 PM   
Josh

 

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From: Leeuwarden, Netherlands
Status: offline 		Don't believe in this "tipping point" ideay myself, seen it too many times so disbelieve starts to creep in.

And concerning ebola and what not, every couple of years there's another "flu" remember the swine flu? So I'm a bit sceptical. Nonetheless, no one saw the Spanish flu coming in '18...and that one cost more lives than WWI itself. So yeah who knows? Better prepared ... maybe, maybe not.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 5:51:48 PM   
Qwixt


Posts: 902
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Status: offline 		I am not too concerned about it. I think it's media hyperbole. For one, it's only contagious in the latter stages. Two, in the current case, the guy flew back from Africa, went to the hospital with the known ebola symptoms (don't forget he just came from africa), then was sent home. A real /facepalm moment in health care.

Ebola has been in African countries for years at this point, and the African people are still around. It's only getting attention at this point because it can happen to us, and the 24 hour news cycle trying to constantly scare people and get viewership.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 6:45:57 PM   
bairdlander2


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From: Toronto Ontario but living in Edmonton,Alberta
Status: offline 		Also it only spread through direct contact with bodily fluids.I assume people not washing their hands after using the washroom.Most likely no place to wash hands or a cultural habit.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 7:00:29 PM   
warspite1


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Status: offline 		....unless it goes airborne.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 7:03:38 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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Attachment (1)

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 10/6/2014 8:04:56 PM >

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 7:15:21 PM   
Jeffrey H.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bairdlander

Also it only spread through direct contact with bodily fluids.I assume people not washing their hands after using the washroom.Most likely no place to wash hands or a cultural habit.


It's been shown to transmit without direct contact in monkeys. Presumeably through indirect means. Also, there are several strains and I haven't heard the specific strain that this current outbreak can be identified with.

Even with bodily fluid contact only transmission, there are a lot of ways for indirect transfer.



< Message edited by Jeffrey H. -- 10/6/2014 8:16:37 PM >

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 8:55:37 PM   
gradenko2k

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
....unless it goes airborne.

The evolutionary trade-offs involved with going airborne would change the virus enough that it wouldn't necessarily be the death-knell that it threatens to be.

Granting that the virus would be able to make that leap at all is already a huge hand-wavy hypothetical in and of itself.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/6/2014 9:44:19 PM   
Max 86


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bairdlander

Also it only spread through direct contact with bodily fluids.I assume people not washing their hands after using the washroom.Most likely no place to wash hands or a cultural habit.


If you look at population density versus availability of first rate medical care, it still comes down to containment. Containment in Dallas is a different type of problem than say, in Mexico city.

Let's all hope this burns out quickly.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 2:53:38 AM   
Orm


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Status: offline 		I wonder if it is likely that someone, somewhere, is trying to make a biological weapon out of this. And if so, I also wonder if terrorists would try to get it in order to use it.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 3:02:45 AM   
bairdlander2


Posts: 2264
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From: Toronto Ontario but living in Edmonton,Alberta
Status: offline 		Comes down to hygiene,I took a taxi this afternoon,the driver had a toothpick and was drooling all over his fingers,I paid with my atm card,which he held with the same fingers he just put his saliva all over,if he had a cold or some other disease he could be spreading it to me.Good I always carry a mini hand sanitizer bottle and used it right away.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 3:23:26 AM   
danlongman

 

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Status: offline 		No need to worry about tipping points as long is there is a careful balance
between right and left. To much of one or the other and over she goes!!

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 3:36:26 AM   
Orm


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From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Do you guys really think that the medical personnel sent down there got infected because of bad personal hygiene?

When talking about diseases such as Ebola it does not only come down to hygiene.

I find it unlikely that everyone behaves rationally when they have been exposed to a deadly disease. I find it far more likely that most would behave irrationally in such situations.

Soon someone who lost their entire family to the disease is going to take all the money available and the go to Vegas and gamble with all his money because he has "always wanted to go to Vegas before he dies". Or visit Paris. Or London. Or Rome. Or go to their last living relative in Stockholm. And since his symptoms has yet to show and the authorities has no idea that he has been exposed he gets to travel his journey. Then he begins to feel sick but he tries to hide it since he doesn't want to spend his last days isolated since he know he is going to die either way. He rather spend it doing things he considers fun...

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 3:49:46 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

I wonder if it is likely that someone, somewhere, is trying to make a biological weapon out of this. And if so, I also wonder if terrorists would try to get it in order to use it.


For whatever my opinion is worth: someone is probably thinking about it, but not very seriously because the long incubation period makes it less useful as a weapon than several other pathogens. As for terrorists, biological weapons don't deliver the immediate, spectacular results that most terrorists seem to thrive on. (Note how few chemical weapons attacks there have been, and it's not much more difficult to prepare toxic chemicals than to prepare explosives.)

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 3:53:21 AM   
Orm


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From: Sweden
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

I wonder if it is likely that someone, somewhere, is trying to make a biological weapon out of this. And if so, I also wonder if terrorists would try to get it in order to use it.


For whatever my opinion is worth: someone is probably thinking about it, but not very seriously because the long incubation period makes it less useful as a weapon than several other pathogens. As for terrorists, biological weapons don't deliver the immediate, spectacular results that most terrorists seem to thrive on. (Note how few chemical weapons attacks there have been, and it's not much more difficult to prepare toxic chemicals than to prepare explosives.)

I actually thought that the long incubation time was an advantage for it as a weapon of terror. But your opinion means a lot to me so now I will be less concerned.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/7/2014 6:00:44 AM   
gradenko2k

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm
I wonder if it is likely that someone, somewhere, is trying to make a biological weapon out of this. And if so, I also wonder if terrorists would try to get it in order to use it.

Tom Clancy did

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Orders

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 12:38:28 AM   
bairdlander2


Posts: 2264
Joined: 3/28/2009
From: Toronto Ontario but living in Edmonton,Alberta
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

Do you guys really think that the medical personnel sent down there got infected because of bad personal hygiene?

When talking about diseases such as Ebola it does not only come down to hygiene.

I never said that,but the fact is hand washing before eating and after use of washroom is the basic common practice to greatly reduce catching a disease.This disease spreads through contact with infected bodily fluids.thorough washing eliminates most of that threat if not all.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 1:02:42 AM   
Twotribes


Posts: 6929
Joined: 2/15/2002
From: Jacksonville NC
Status: offline 		Actually washing the dead bodies is how most get infected. It is a practice in parts of Africa to wash the dead. As for health workers, do you honestly believe they touched infected waste without gloves and masks?

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 1:13:47 AM   
bairdlander2


Posts: 2264
Joined: 3/28/2009
From: Toronto Ontario but living in Edmonton,Alberta
Status: offline 		I never said anything about washing dead bodies,all I'm saying is wash your hands with soap,hold under warm water for at least 30 seconds and it greatly reduces catching communicable disease.Im quite sure the body wash you refer to was not warm water or any soap used.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 2:25:12 AM   
Mobius


Posts: 10339
Joined: 6/30/2006
From: California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm
I find it unlikely that everyone behaves rationally when they have been exposed to a deadly disease. I find it far more likely that most would behave irrationally in such situations.

Soon someone who lost their entire family to the disease is going to take all the money available and the go to Vegas and gamble with all his money because he has "always wanted to go to Vegas before he dies". Or visit Paris. Or London. Or Rome. Or go to their last living relative in Stockholm. And since his symptoms has yet to show and the authorities has no idea that he has been exposed he gets to travel his journey. Then he begins to feel sick but he tries to hide it since he doesn't want to spend his last days isolated since he know he is going to die either way. He rather spend it doing things he considers fun...
Or wants to get even with the world and goes to a few concerts or ballgames.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 10:44:38 AM   
Jamm


Posts: 407
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Status: offline 		Populations are kept in check with predation, starvation and disease.
Of course mankind believes the laws of nature do not apply to it.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 11:44:48 AM   
wodin


Posts: 10762
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From: England
Status: offline 		Mother nature will find away to cut us down eventually. I think the Sun each year provides enough energy for a pop of 2 billion I believe. So once fossil fuels run out and if we don't go nuclear (wind is a joke) we will lose 5 to 6 billion people.

< Message edited by wodin -- 10/8/2014 12:46:07 PM >

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 7:39:16 PM   
Crimguy


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From: Cave Creek, AZ
Status: offline 		Wodin I'm curious how such a thing is calculated.

As an aside, check out a recent book called "Ebola K" by Bobby Adair. He wrote a series of very entertaining zombie novels. Ebola K is about an airborne strain of Ebola being used as a weapon of terror. Will be a trilogy, and the first book is free on Amazon.

It's a thriller, written by a small independent writer. I like his books for the entertainment value. It's not Faulkner.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 10:26:42 PM   
nate25


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Status: offline 		Seems like this comes up every few years, usually because of some new strain of sickness.

As far as energy goes, crude is abiotic.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/8/2014 11:02:56 PM   
wodin


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Status: offline 		Not sure to be honest. Heard it mentioned more than once in different documentaries.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Crimguy

Wodin I'm curious how such a thing is calculated.

As an aside, check out a recent book called "Ebola K" by Bobby Adair. He wrote a series of very entertaining zombie novels. Ebola K is about an airborne strain of Ebola being used as a weapon of terror. Will be a trilogy, and the first book is free on Amazon.

It's a thriller, written by a small independent writer. I like his books for the entertainment value. It's not Faulkner.



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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/9/2014 12:56:37 AM   
Otto von Blotto


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

Mother nature will find away to cut us down eventually. I think the Sun each year provides enough energy for a pop of 2 billion I believe. So once fossil fuels run out and if we don't go nuclear (wind is a joke) we will lose 5 to 6 billion people.


Whereas we could lose the whole 7.2 billion and most of the other indigenous life on the planet if we do go fully nuclear.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/9/2014 3:42:41 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

I think the Sun each year provides enough energy for a pop of 2 billion I believe. So once fossil fuels run out and if we don't go nuclear (wind is a joke) we will lose 5 to 6 billion people.


I'm pretty sure that number is in error. The Earth receives about 1.7 X 10^17 watts from solar radiation, a fabulous amount of energy. Also, don't forget the potential of geothermal energy: we're sitting on an immense ball of molten rock, shielded by only a few miles of dirt. And it's renewable; scientists have calculated that he energy comes from the decay of the heavy radioactive elements at the Earth's core, otherwise it would have cooled off considerably more by now.

That being said, I have heard that the planet can only sustain about 4 billion people in the long run, from other factors like soil exhaustion from growing crops year after year.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/10/2014 10:09:37 AM   
Zap


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Status: offline 		Considering the seriousness of Ebola and I include terrorist threats to need the same action. The US , if it had b#$%s and a sense of protecting its people would stop all incoming flights from the countries of origin.

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RE: Has Earth reached a Population Tipping Point? - 10/10/2014 11:16:42 AM   
MrsWargamer


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Status: offline 		I think terrorists lack imagination.

They all expect to die in their attacks. What would stop them just being willing carriers willing to casually wander around spreading intentionally?

I think it is the same reason they have failed to realize, you can cause plenty of devastation by just detonating nukes in proximity. You wouldn't need to nuke New York, you could probably trash New York rather efficiently by detonating on board a ship in international waters within range of the coast and let the emp wipe out stuff sufficiently well to cause massive damage. Just think, every car in New York City height of rush hour suddenly becoming dead. And that's just cars.

Yep, I think terrorists lack imagination.

Or terrorists might be a bit more hype than we want to believe. Likely it is they lack imagination though.

As for mother nature. Well she's tried to wipe out all life on the planet 11 times that we can point to. Just not recently in human terms. But in planetary terms, 50k years ago wasn't very long ago. Yellowstone doing a Toba, sure would cut down on human population figures rather sudden like. Wouldn't eliminate us, but, it sure would make a lot of society arguments a lot more moot. Politics would sure get interesting. And no, the movie is not how it would go down.

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