yvesp
Posts: 2083
Joined: 9/12/2008 Status: offline
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This second impulse is a nightmare of possibly ugly decisions for Japan, none of which looks remotely able to stop the allied onslaught. This is David against Goliath, but David is getting bashed... Choices: - Do nothing and preserve the forces for some serious opportunity, such as trying to prevent the invasion of Japan, or reinforcements there - Move the fleet in the 1 or even possibly 0 box and hope to find the 0 box allied fleet bringing in reinforcements ; if found by the fleet in high waters, somethinf bad may happen, although Japan now has a 8 land based fighter squadron. Is it enough ? The US just have the copy in Korea... - Move the fleet in the 0 or 1 box of the Bismark Sea and hope to engage the US fleet there which is at a disadvantage. So what ? The damage (Rabaul) has been done. And even if the US lose 2 or 3 carriers, the main fleet still stays out of reach. And of course, if the fleets fail to meet, the British fleet and its host of carriers is sure to move. What then ? - Move a host of cruisers in the Pacific to try and disrupt the reinforcements ? They are far and screened ; chances are minimal to achieve anything. Of course, this is not extremely risky, but it would actually look like being doing somethig while really doing nothing. - Bring in reinforcements from Japan to Mandchuria ? Whoa... Considering the sizes of the US and Russian armies there, its like sending cows to the butcher ; not metionning the nice US fleet that would have a 30% chance of sinking everything. - Try and disentangle the army in China and bring it near the coast to rapatriate whatever can be salvaged ? Sounds good. But oh, the coast really looks far away ; and first, we must bring in supplies. So it requires moving a convoy, pray that it is stealthy enough and that it stick to the next impulse. And that there is nothing more important than a land move to do on the next impulse... And under the rain, we are going to move what ? one hex ? gorgeous... For Germany, things are simpler. Considering that there is no space to move around, and anyway nothing smart to do, it pass, pass, pass... except once in a while where moving a unit looks smart. Not moving the fleet looks smart. In the Sea of Japan, the chance of finding the US fleet under the right conditions are about 7%. But the US will find the Japanese fleet on 30% chance. Over two impulses (before the fleet can possibly move back ?), that gives about 50% chances to the US for destroying the Japanese fleet, against barely 15% of achieving anything serious against the reinforcement fleet... Which is itself would only be a small blow. In the Bismarck sea, the odds are better ; but the uselessness of it smells bad ; not to mention that the oil reserves are only good for one move now... That would look like a waste... The other options suck as well. So, "passing" (almost) seems the smartest thing to do, apart for trying and moving a unit by rail in Canton, if one such unit can be found... It looks like Japan will become more and more passive to preserve their forces After all, ther are only 6 turns left!
< Message edited by yvesp -- 10/11/2014 5:24:15 PM >
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