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Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 2:38:55 PM   
Lecivius


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Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Reading the "I'm done with this ridiculous time vampire of a game" thread got me to pondering on the random events that changed the course of this theater. Some events that were small at the time had much larger consequences in The Grand Scheme Of Things.

Examples

The Enterprise was not in Pearl Harbor that Sunday, when it was in fact scheduled to be there. If she is sunk, no Midway, and the war goes on a lot longer.

If the Japanese scout submarines had deployed on schedule, there would have been submarines at 'Point Luck'.

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

If Mikawa had come on, instead of turning after Savo. The destruction of troops & supplies would have doomed Shoestring.

If the Enterprise hanger had been stuck in ANY other position other than were it was after Santa Cruz would have left the Japanese in control of the waters around Guadalcanal.

If US Torpedo's had worked, would the war have been anywhere near as destructive as it was?

What others come to mind? It is this "What if...?" that intrigues me about this theater.

Post #: 1
RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 3:37:16 PM   
kaleun

 

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Status: offline 		As far as what if the US torpedoes had worked, that is easy to simulate

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 3:39:22 PM   
Lecivius


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Status: offline 		And while I ponder, I can't think of anything in the other hemisphere that would have been a fulcrum on the same level. Hitler switching the bombing campaign in the Battle of Britain, going into Russia, the constant changing of strategic targets in the bombing campaign, were all decisions, not random acts that may have changed the war.

Perhaps someone better read has information?

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 3:47:24 PM   
Endy

 

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Status: offline 		Well, the weather during critical time of Market Garden operation surely did not help. Though I guess you could argue that the operation was too optimistic and doomed from the begining due to other factors as well.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 4:10:46 PM   
ckammp

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

And while I ponder, I can't think of anything in the other hemisphere that would have been a fulcrum on the same level. Hitler switching the bombing campaign in the Battle of Britain, going into Russia, the constant changing of strategic targets in the bombing campaign, were all decisions, not random acts that may have changed the war.

Perhaps someone better read has information?



If Oberst Brandt doesn't move a briefcase to the other side of a table leg so he can get a better look at a map, Hitler dies on 20 Jul 44.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 4:13:46 PM   
Lecivius


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Status: offline 		That again is a decision. Imagine if you will the disaster that would have been IF (going totally out into dreamland) the POW had been torpedoed by a U-boat during the Atlantic Charter meeting.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 4:36:16 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 4:45:02 PM   
Lecivius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!


Agreed, but it is something to ponder on. perhaps I'm just too bored at work

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 4:54:51 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

If the Tone's scout planes had had no problems, the American carriers might have been detected in time to be struck, as opposed to the confusion & destruction the delay caused.

Shattered Sword concluded that Tone's late scout would not have seen the US fleet on its way out due to weather if it were on time. Probably no change in history, just less material for a movie!


Agreed, but it is something to ponder on. perhaps I'm just too bored at work

So what scenes would the movie Midway have included in place of Tone's late scout?

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 5:10:31 PM   
LargeSlowTarget


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Status: offline 		Bismarck being hit a few feet forward of the actual hit near the rudder, reaching France for repairs and then forming a SAG with the "terrible twins" and terrorizing the convoy routes to the UK.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 5:55:05 PM   
witpqs


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Status: offline 		Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 6:17:10 PM   
Trugrit


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Status: offline 		For me this is largest "what if" of the Pacific War:

What would Japan have had to do to win a negotiated peace?
Was that even possible?

This might interest you:
The below link is for a lecture given about southern war strategy (American civil war)
There are Interesting parallels between the southern and the Japanese war strategies.
They both used the same three strategies to try and win a negotiated peace.

Cordon or Perimeter defense
Offensive/defensive
Gorilla/Attrition

The lecture is the second one in by historian Richard McMurry:
When he says confederate I think about the Japanese.
http://series.c-span.org/History/Events/The-Civil-War-Battle-of-Stones-River/10737436630-1/
As a southerner I can relate since my ancestors traveled the same dark path.

Also this link. What Jon Parshall says at the very end.

Refighting the Pacific War - An Alternative History of WW 2.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I20FWLsq2Qk




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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 6:58:08 PM   
Lecivius


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Status: offline 		European thoughts.

What if Hitler & Stalin actually liked one another?

What if Jodl had released the reserves according to plan.

In any event, a LOT of things went incredibly 'right' for the allies during that war.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 7:00:40 PM   
Dili

 

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Status: offline 		Also this in a less serious note :) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Final_Countdown_(film)



I think overall the biggest what if to Second World War is if Churchill doesn't get to be to be PM. Only a fortunate set of circumstances made it be.



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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 9:44:13 PM   
LargeSlowTarget


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway!


I was of course replying to post #3.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 10:07:13 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway!


I was of course replying to post #3.

Party pooper!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 10:32:26 PM   
zuluhour


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Status: offline 		the monkey selfie is still killing me!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 11:04:37 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

the monkey selfie is still killing me!

He's a good monkey!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/21/2014 11:08:15 PM   
pontiouspilot


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Status: offline 		Now that may be rude….what if not a monkey??….It also may help explain the Ebola jump from monkeys to men!!

What ifs……there are a whole series of books and articles published on this topic. The only one I have on my bookshelf is "What if" by a gentleman named Cowley…a series of articles by authors as well known as John Keegan.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 5:41:31 AM   
JeffroK


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G Washington falls into the Delaware!

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 6:08:53 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

European thoughts.

What if Hitler & Stalin actually liked one another?

What if Jodl had released the reserves according to plan.

In any event, a LOT of things went incredibly 'right' for the allies during that war.
Warspite1

A lot of things went incredibly right for the Axis at the start of the war too.

The Norwegian Campaign was close to being a disaster for the Germans. Admiralty interference saved at least one of the task forces from annihilation. Different decisions by one or two Norwegian commanders could have dramatically altered results too.

The German invasion of the Low Countries and France was a case of everything going right for the Axis - it needed to be too. With the forces at the disposal of each, it would be difficult to replicate that result if you replayed the attack 100 times.

As far as Hitler and Stalin liking each other is concerned, for me that is one "what if" too far. Sure, I could just about buy Hitler delaying Barbarossa in order to deal with Britain (via a Mediterranean strategy) but NOTHING (other than defeat in the west) was going to stop Hiter from undertaking the invasion of the Soviet Union. That was his raison d'être.


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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 6:39:17 AM   
Endy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

As far as Hitler and Stalin liking each other is concerned, for me that is one "what if" too far. Sure, I could just about buy Hitler delaying Barbarossa in order to deal with Britain (via a Mediterranean strategy) but NOTHING (other than defeat in the west) was going to stop Hiter from undertaking the invasion of the Soviet Union. That was his raison d'être.



And if he delayed too much then of course Stalin would attack first as it was already planned. It would begin one way or the other, just a matter who was ready first.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 6:50:18 AM   
warspite1


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Status: offline 		..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 7:11:49 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?

Might they have been sitting in a warehouse, still in transport-mode (not combat ready), like the yet-to-be-assembled Hurricanes?

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 7:30:13 AM   
wdolson

 

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Status: offline 		The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

Bill

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 7:32:57 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?

Might they have been sitting in a warehouse, still in transport-mode (not combat ready), like the yet-to-be-assembled Hurricanes?
warspite1

It depends on whether the British had too many squadrons and indeed armoured units in the UK. We are talking about late 1941. The considered opinion was that the Germans WERE going to defeat the Soviets - and if they did then they would soon be back knocking at the UK's door. So the "what if" is the gamble that some of those troops/airmen were released to the Far East.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 7:35:40 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

Bill
warspite1

I am not talking about US lend-lease, but British lend-lease - or more importantly British units still in the UK.




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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 7:45:25 AM   
warspite1


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Status: offline 		Re the above does anyone have any stats on:

Autumn 1941

How many fighter squadrons were based in the UK?
How many tank brigades?

Need to allow for what was going on in the Middle East too.

Interesting.

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 8:02:00 AM   
wdolson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

Bill
warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1
I am not talking about US lend-lease, but British lend-lease - or more importantly British units still in the UK.



The US did not start direct lend lease to the USSR until sometime in 1942. FDR had pushed through lend lease indirectly through the UK, but that bill didn't pass until November 1941. The first aircraft sent from Britain (P-40Bs) did not arrive until after Pearl Harbor.

The British also had their hands full in North Africa. All their best units and almost all their armor were there. The UK also needed to keep a large number of first line aircraft at home to make sure the Germans didn't try to invade again. The Far East got what could be spared, which wasn't much. If they sent much more to Malaya, it would probably have weakened the situation in North Africa which was tenuous by late 1941. Essentially the British Empire was strung out to its maximum and it wasn't prepared for a 3 front war. It was barely holding together on two fronts (home and the Med).

What tipped the situation in the Far East for the British was the Indians throwing in with them in exchange for post war promises of freedom and the Japanese showing their hand as far worse masters than the British. The Japanese had detailed intel on the positions of all Commonwealth assets at the start of the war because there were a lot of sympathetic Burmese, Malaysians, and Indians willing to sell out their masters for the good of the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Of course massive weaponry along with US forces arriving in India helped a lot too.

Bill

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RE: Pondering on random events - 10/22/2014 8:22:36 AM   
warspite1


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Status: offline 		I think our last two posts crossed.

I will do some digging on the numbers based in the UK. I definitely read recently that the British probably left too much in the UK (of course that is an opinion and given with hindsight as we know the Germans don't beat the Soviets!).

The same is said of the RN and the number of battleships maintained in home waters was too conservative for the actual threat posed (I think that was O'Hara but I may be wrong).

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