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ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk in 1940 - 12/31/2014 1:19:11 PM   
czert2

 

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how good it is ? i readed that he claim that jerrys should have succsfuly complete invazion t uk and conquer mainland. If they decided to.
How good that claim is ? how much bulletproof ?
Post #: 1
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 1:28:06 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: czert2

how good it is ? i readed that he claim that jerrys should have succsfuly complete invazion t uk and conquer mainland. If they decided to.
How good that claim is ? how much bulletproof ?
warspite1

czert2, there are few things in life that are certain. Death - check, taxes - check, Spurs won't win the Premiership in my lifetime - check. I will never get it on with a playboy model - check.

There is one positive item you can add to that depressing list - a successful Operation Sealion was simply impossible. It would have been a complete and utter disaster for the German armed forces - shame in a way they didn't attempt it. I suspect there would have been no question of Barbarossa in 1941 if they had...



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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 1:45:43 PM   
czert2

 

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well, why it shoudl be comlete disaster ? so that authors claims are totaly wrong ? can you more elaborate pls.

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 1:59:46 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: czert2

well, why it shoudl be comlete disaster ? so that authors claims are totaly wrong ? can you more elaborate pls.
warspite1

Sure. The English Channel - narrow though it is - is a notoriously dangerous stretch of water - storms in the channel are not that uncommon (as the Allies found out just after D-Day). This was NOT the river crossing that some claimed it would be.

After the Norwegian Campaign the Kriegsmarine - that would be needed to escort the barges - were down to a handful of surface vessels.

The Germans did not have air superiority. The slow moving barges (assuming they were not swamped by water) would have been strafed by the RAF and attacked by as many small craft (and there were a lot) that the RN could muster.

Sure the opposition meeting them on the beaches would have been relatively light BUT the German problem would have been landing their troops in the first place, re-supplying those that did make it, and reinforcing those units thereafter.

Apollo 11 (Leo) has a really interesting link on this subject - hopefully he will see this and provide.



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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 2:09:37 PM   
warspite1


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Wrong thread!!!!

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/31/2014 3:11:40 PM >


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 2:42:08 PM   
Barb


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There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 2:52:11 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt
warspite1

I think that is the one - thanks Barb.


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 2:58:51 PM   
Dili

 

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It depends about who was the British leader. With Lord Halifax or other appeaser, maybe it could pulled off. Politics matter.

On paper France also could not be defeated like it was by Germans, a stalemate would be the most expected result. We know how that ended.

< Message edited by Dili -- 12/31/2014 4:01:09 PM >

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 3:04:22 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dili

It depends about who was the British leader. With Lord Halifax or other appeaser, maybe it could pulled off. Politics matter.

On paper France also could not be defeated like it was by Germans, a stalemate would be the most expected result.
warspite1

The comment that is was impossible is based on the actual situation at the time it would have been launched - a weak Kriegsmarine weakened further by Norway, air supremacy not achieved, the BEF not having been destroyed and the sheer size of the RN.

If other counterfactuals are brought in then yes, there may be a different result - although I struggle to see what could have changed the situation sufficiently to allow a successful operation. The deficiencies in German equipment (to enable a successful amphibious landing) were not something that could be fixed overnight and the Germans would have needed to plan for such an eventuality well before 1939.

It could be argued that if Halifax had succeeded Chamberlain then there would have been no Fall Gelb - let alone a Sealion!



< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/31/2014 4:13:43 PM >


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 3:27:46 PM   
Orm


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Germany might have succeeded with a landing without major losses. But such quick, surprise, invasion would have had to be done without heavy equipment. The Royal Navy would surely block the attempts to reinforce the German landing force with heavy equipment.

And Germany had not the capacity to land those tanks and artillery pieces, fuel and ammunition on the beach. So that means that they needed to capture a port fast as well. And that the port remained fairly undamaged. And the port must be open for transport ships. And that means sea and air superiority and Germany had neither.

And lets not forget that the summer would have been over before Germany could have attempted such an invasion. The weather would have made a formidable opponent to the ad-hoc force that Germany could put together. It simply could not have been done in 1940.

Edit: And while Home Fleet did not operate in the English Channel they surely would have done so after the invasion was a fact. And they might have lost a battleship or two but the Royal Navy would have made mincemeat to the German second wave and support fleet. Then they would have pulverized the invasion force with shore bombardment.

< Message edited by Orm -- 12/31/2014 4:32:13 PM >


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 5:32:28 PM   
Dili

 

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It is public psychology more than anything else. A defeatist attitude can change everything. It can transform a victory in a defeat and a defeat into a victory.
After the first bombs in British cities the people could be claiming for peace instead of stiff upper lip depending on "public opinion = aka: what major journalists think = what political current dominates the newspapers".

Over English cities the British had air superiority, but not over the channel, that was contested.

< Message edited by Dili -- 12/31/2014 6:33:27 PM >

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 5:35:10 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dili

It is public psychology more than anything else. A defeatist attitude can change everything. It can transform a victory in a defeat and a defeat into a victory.
After the first bombs in British cities the people could be claiming for peace instead of stiff upper lip depending on "public opinion = aka: what major journalists think = what political current dominates the newspapers".

Over English cities the British had air superiority, but not over the channel, that was contested.
warspite1

Exactly - it was contested. They NEEDED air superiority. The slow moving river barges would have been sitting ducks to aircraft, MTB's destroyers and anything else thrown at them.


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 12/31/2014 6:45:15 PM >


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 6:55:54 PM   
Footslogger


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Here's a thread that discuss it: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3087002&mpage=1&key=Operation%2CSealion�

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 8:48:18 PM   
rustysi


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quote:

I will never get it on with a playboy model - check.


C'mon Warspite it could happen.

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 9:06:30 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

I will never get it on with a playboy model - check.


C'mon Warspite it could happen.
warspite1

Well I guess there is more chance of that than there was of Sealion succeeding

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 12/31/2014 9:14:47 PM   
rustysi


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

I will never get it on with a playboy model - check.


C'mon Warspite it could happen.
warspite1

Well I guess there is more chance of that than there was of Sealion succeeding




_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 9:30:45 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Here's a thread that discuss it: http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3087002&mpage=1&key=Operation%2CSealion�
warspite1

Thanks for finding that Footslogger - made for good re-reading


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 9:40:33 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dili

It is public psychology more than anything else. A defeatist attitude can change everything. It can transform a victory in a defeat and a defeat into a victory.
After the first bombs in British cities the people could be claiming for peace instead of stiff upper lip depending on "public opinion = aka: what major journalists think = what political current dominates the newspapers".

warspite1

On that we can agree. Fortunately by the summer of 1940, with Winston S Churchill at the helm any defeatism was kicked into touch - fortunately the likes of the pathetic and cowardly Joseph P Kennedy (US ambassador who fled to the countryside during the Blitz) were few and far between.


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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 10:09:12 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


I think Sandhurst might be just a little bit of a biased source in regard to Sealion.

What's more, they assumed that the Germans didn't yet have control of the airspace, which is a fairly big assumption concerning the topic. There are various other issues that you can nickpick (like the Royal Navy not commiting major surface ships - the RN destroyers are just going to beat the KM heavy surface units on their own?), but that's the main issue.

Was it possible for Sealion to succeed? Yes.

Was it likely to suceed? That would depend on who won control of the airspace.

@ Warspite: while the odds were stacked against the Germans, the British were far from in the best position to repell an invasion.

Plenty of regular troops, but little artillery, few shells, and hardly any tanks. There was the Home Guard, but what actual military use they would be is questionable. The fact that they were considering schemes like Operation Banquet shows the extent to which Britain really wasn't prepared to fight off a determined invasion.

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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 10:34:56 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


I think Sandhurst might be just a little bit of a biased source in regard to Sealion.

Was it likely to suceed? That would depend on who won control of the airspace.

@ Warspite: while the odds were stacked against the Germans, the British were far from in the best position to repell an invasion
warspite1

Re your first point above - it may be better to read the summary before commenting. Yes those at Sandhurst may be a little biased - if they were all British. The study was HELD at Sandhurst - the panel of umpires were German and British and the results were unanimously agreed.

Re the second point, no sorry. Firstly its is almost certain that even WITH air superiority (let alone just contested) Sealion would still have been a disaster for the Germans. The excruciatingly slow, poorly protected, low in the water, river barges would have been torn to shreds - nothing bigger than a cruiser required. However, even if you chose to believe that air superiority was the only important element, there is still rather a big problem..... The Germans have to gain it. Given that this was something they had been trying to do for many weeks - and utterly failing to achieve - why would it suddenly be possible?

Repel a properly planned, co-ordinated and executed invasion? I quite agree - in no way were the remnants of the BEF, some green Commonwealth troops + whatever else we could throw together - in an ideal position against the cream of the Wehrmacht. Only problem for the Germans was that was not what the British would be facing. Those "lucky" sods that managed to get onto the beaches would have been disorganised, lacking in heavy weapons and have little to no chance of re-supply. Relief at landing would quickly turn to fire, frying-pan type territory......




< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/1/2015 11:40:33 PM >


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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 10:52:24 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


What's more, they assumed that the Germans didn't yet have control of the airspace, which is a fairly big assumption concerning the topic. There are various other issues that you can nickpick (like the Royal Navy not commiting major surface ships - the RN destroyers are just going to beat the KM heavy surface units on their own?), but that's the main issue.

warspite1

Sorry I missed the above points.

I do not understand the reference to assumption and air superiority? What do you mean? At the time the invasion takes place, there is no assumption - only fact. Goering completely mucked up the BoB - German losses of aircrew and planes was already becoming critical by September. There is no assumption here.

KM heavy surface units. Which heavy surface units are you talking about? The RN would have commited cruisers in addition to destroyers, MTB's etc etc.



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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:06:32 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


I think Sandhurst might be just a little bit of a biased source in regard to Sealion.

Was it likely to suceed? That would depend on who won control of the airspace.

@ Warspite: while the odds were stacked against the Germans, the British were far from in the best position to repell an invasion
warspite1

Re your first point above - it may be better to read the summary before commenting. Yes those at Sandhurst may be a little biased - if they were all British. The study was HELD at Sandhurst - the panel of umpires were German and British and the results were unanimously agreed.


My point was more that the premise was biased - with the Luftwaffe not already having won control of the air.

quote:

Re the second point, no sorry. Firstly its is almost certain that even WITH air superiority (let alone just contested) Sealion would still have been a disaster for the Germans. The excruciatingly slow, poorly protected, low in the water, river barges would have been torn to shreds - nothing bigger than a cruiser required. However, even if you chose to believe that air superiority was the only important element, there is still rather a big problem..... The Germans have to gain it. Given that this was something they had been trying to do for many weeks - and utterly failing to achieve - why would it suddenly be possible?


So, what do the crusiers of the Royal Navy do when they're confronted with the heavy units of the Kreigsmarine and the Luftwaffe in the narrow confines of the Channel?

Air superiority is the key element regarding Sealion. With it, the Germans stand a good chance, otherwise they don't.

As for the Germans actually getting air superiority - they were very close to achiving it. The RAF was digging deep into it's reserves, and the bottom of the barrel was in sight. The Luftwaffe failing to gain control of the air was not a done deal.

quote:

Repel a properly planned, co-ordinated and executed invasion? I quite agree - in no way were the remnants of the BEF, some green Commonwealth troops + whatever else we could throw together - in an ideal position against the cream of the Wehrmacht. Only problem for the Germans was that was not what the British would be facing. Those "lucky" sods that managed to get onto the beaches would have been disorganised, lacking in heavy weapons and have little to no chance of re-supply. Relief at landing would quickly turn to fire, frying-pan type territory......


Heavy equipment? The staff study posted seems to suggest that the 7th Panzer Div gets enough across.

I'm really not sure what you're looking for in this discussion. You've evidently watched the Battle of Britain just too many times for you to consider anything contrary to what that film depicted as being plausible.


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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:07:02 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


What's more, they assumed that the Germans didn't yet have control of the airspace, which is a fairly big assumption concerning the topic. There are various other issues that you can nickpick (like the Royal Navy not commiting major surface ships - the RN destroyers are just going to beat the KM heavy surface units on their own?), but that's the main issue.

warspite1

Sorry I missed the above points.

I do not understand the reference to assumption and air superiority? What do you mean? At the time the invasion takes place, there is no assumption - only fact. Goering completely mucked up the BoB - German losses of aircrew and planes was already becoming critical by September.


...and the RAF was exhausted and running out of trailed pilots.

Hardly a done deal.

quote:

KM heavy surface units. Which heavy surface units are you talking about? The RN would have commited cruisers in addition to destroyers, MTB's etc etc.


The Scharnhorst's and the Bismarck's would just sit on the side-lines and watch while the rest of the KM supports the invasion?

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 1/2/2015 12:11:31 AM >

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Post #: 23
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:11:14 PM   
warspite1


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What am I looking for in this discussion? Same as any discussion. To get my view across just as I am sure do you.... Your point that is, not mine

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Post #: 24
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:15:28 PM   
warspite1


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The Bismarcks and the Scharnhorsts - seriously? Sorry mate - have a look at when these were ready for action (in the case of the former) and have a look at Weserubung (in the case of the latter).

As for the "rest of the KM" - have a look at Weserubung.....

I believe the KM was something like:

Admiral Scheer (Pocket Battleship/Heavy Cruiser)
Admiral Hipper (Heavy Cruiser)
Leipzig, Koln and Nurnberg (light cruisers) These are the only 3 I believe that were ready for action
10 destroyers
20-30 submarines.

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/2/2015 12:59:43 AM >


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Post #: 25
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:23:47 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

There was a wargame at Sandhurst Military Academy after the war - its short summary can be found here:
http://mr-home.staff.shef.ac.uk/hobbies/seelowe.txt


I think Sandhurst might be just a little bit of a biased source in regard to Sealion.

Was it likely to suceed? That would depend on who won control of the airspace.

@ Warspite: while the odds were stacked against the Germans, the British were far from in the best position to repell an invasion
warspite1

Re your first point above - it may be better to read the summary before commenting. Yes those at Sandhurst may be a little biased - if they were all British. The study was HELD at Sandhurst - the panel of umpires were German and British and the results were unanimously agreed.


My point was more that the premise was biased - with the Luftwaffe not already having won control of the air.

quote:

Re the second point, no sorry. Firstly its is almost certain that even WITH air superiority (let alone just contested) Sealion would still have been a disaster for the Germans. The excruciatingly slow, poorly protected, low in the water, river barges would have been torn to shreds - nothing bigger than a cruiser required. However, even if you chose to believe that air superiority was the only important element, there is still rather a big problem..... The Germans have to gain it. Given that this was something they had been trying to do for many weeks - and utterly failing to achieve - why would it suddenly be possible?


So, what do the crusiers of the Royal Navy do when they're confronted with the heavy units of the Kreigsmarine and the Luftwaffe in the narrow confines of the Channel?

Air superiority is the key element regarding Sealion. With it, the Germans stand a good chance, otherwise they don't.

As for the Germans actually getting air superiority - they were very close to achiving it. The RAF was digging deep into it's reserves, and the bottom of the barrel was in sight. The Luftwaffe failing to gain control of the air was not a done deal.

quote:

Repel a properly planned, co-ordinated and executed invasion? I quite agree - in no way were the remnants of the BEF, some green Commonwealth troops + whatever else we could throw together - in an ideal position against the cream of the Wehrmacht. Only problem for the Germans was that was not what the British would be facing. Those "lucky" sods that managed to get onto the beaches would have been disorganised, lacking in heavy weapons and have little to no chance of re-supply. Relief at landing would quickly turn to fire, frying-pan type territory......


You've evidently watched the Battle of Britain just too many times for you to consider anything contrary to what that film depicted as being plausible.


Warspite1

That last remark was disappointingly cheap oh well.......


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/2/2015 12:27:50 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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Post #: 26
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/1/2015 11:44:41 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

...and the RAF was exhausted and running out of trailed pilots.

Hardly a done deal


By the end of October 1940 (so within the timeframe of the invasion) the Luftwaffe had lost 3,701 aircraft. It had begun the summer with 3,578. Losses of over 100%, but these had at least been made good in aircraft (if not trained pilots). But worse for the Germans was that production was by then no longer keeping up with losses.

The Luftwaffe's actual combat strength in October was only 75% of that at the start of the battle. Reduction in morale, combat fatigue and exhaustion were not the sole preserve of the RAF.

Furthermore, by now Britain was outstripping the Germans in aircraft production.



< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/2/2015 1:09:53 AM >


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(in reply to mind_messing)
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RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/2/2015 12:08:59 AM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

...and the RAF was exhausted and running out of trailed pilots.

Hardly a done deal


By the end of October 1940 (so within the timeframe of the invasion) the Luftwaffe had lost 3,701 aircraft. It had begun the summer with 3,578. Losses of over 100%, but these had at least been made good in aircraft (if not trained pilots). But worse for the Germans was that production was by then no longer keeping up with losses.

The Luftwaffe's actual combat strength in October was only 75% of that at the start of the battle. Reductions in morale, combat fatigue and exhaustion were not the sole preserve of the RAF.

Furthermore, by now Britain was outstripping the Germans in aircraft production.




The RAF's problem wasn't airframes: it could keep ahead of losses (or at worst break even). It was pilots: in the 24 August to 6 September period it lost 103 pilots KIA/MIA and 128 wounded. Richards gives the losses of pilots from 8th-18th of August as 154, with only 63 replacement pilots put into the frontline.

When you're barely replacing 1/3 of your pilot losses, it's far from a done deal.

It's also worth noting that the production of British aircraft didn't really get ahead of losses till Sept 7th, which was when the Germans made the mistake of attacking urban areas instead.
Of course, the RAF could have went down the Japanese route and threw rookies into fighters, but I doubt that would have worked out well.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 28
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/2/2015 12:27:48 AM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

...and the RAF was exhausted and running out of trailed pilots.

Hardly a done deal


By the end of October 1940 (so within the timeframe of the invasion) the Luftwaffe had lost 3,701 aircraft. It had begun the summer with 3,578. Losses of over 100%, but these had at least been made good in aircraft (if not trained pilots). But worse for the Germans was that production was by then no longer keeping up with losses.

The Luftwaffe's actual combat strength in October was only 75% of that at the start of the battle. Reductions in morale, combat fatigue and exhaustion were not the sole preserve of the RAF.

Furthermore, by now Britain was outstripping the Germans in aircraft production.




The RAF's problem wasn't airframes: it could keep ahead of losses (or at worst break even). It was pilots: in the 24 August to 6 September period it lost 103 pilots KIA/MIA and 128 wounded. Richards gives the losses of pilots from 8th-18th of August as 154, with only 63 replacement pilots put into the frontline.

When you're barely replacing 1/3 of your pilot losses, it's far from a done deal.

It's also worth noting that the production of British aircraft didn't really get ahead of losses till Sept 7th, which was when the Germans made the mistake of attacking urban areas instead.
Of course, the RAF could have went down the Japanese route and threw rookies into fighters, but I doubt that would have worked out well.
warspite1

Whereas the German problem was BOTH airframes AND pilots. British Pilots were likely to be recovered - not so for the Germans. Also the German process for repairing damaged aircraft was woeful. All German Gruppen were operating at depleted strength and this was getting worse each day. If the British had scraped the bottom of the barrel why were those losses not starting to come back for the Germans? Why were things getting worse not better?

The problems the Luftwaffe faced at the start of the BoB were about to get even worse.

With the launch of Sealion, the Luftwaffe are now artillery for the army, they need to pummel the airfields, they are defenders of the river barges and - if they want to throw away the remnants of the KM - their ships too. They are also ordered to attack RN shipping and of course - provide air superiority for the troops that did manage to land. Achieving air superiority was not achieved by the Luftwaffe up to the time of the planned invasion - there was even less chance of that being achieved once the invasion started and the sitting duck barges crept along the channel at 2-3 knots....



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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 29
RE: ot - Kenneth Macksey bok about nazi invazion to uk ... - 1/2/2015 12:40:03 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

...and the RAF was exhausted and running out of trailed pilots.

Hardly a done deal


By the end of October 1940 (so within the timeframe of the invasion) the Luftwaffe had lost 3,701 aircraft. It had begun the summer with 3,578. Losses of over 100%, but these had at least been made good in aircraft (if not trained pilots). But worse for the Germans was that production was by then no longer keeping up with losses.

The Luftwaffe's actual combat strength in October was only 75% of that at the start of the battle. Reductions in morale, combat fatigue and exhaustion were not the sole preserve of the RAF.

Furthermore, by now Britain was outstripping the Germans in aircraft production.




The RAF's problem wasn't airframes: it could keep ahead of losses (or at worst break even). It was pilots: in the 24 August to 6 September period it lost 103 pilots KIA/MIA and 128 wounded. Richards gives the losses of pilots from 8th-18th of August as 154, with only 63 replacement pilots put into the frontline.

When you're barely replacing 1/3 of your pilot losses, it's far from a done deal.

It's also worth noting that the production of British aircraft didn't really get ahead of losses till Sept 7th, which was when the Germans made the mistake of attacking urban areas instead.
Of course, the RAF could have went down the Japanese route and threw rookies into fighters, but I doubt that would have worked out well.
warspite1

Whereas the German problem was BOTH airframes AND pilots. British Pilots were likely to be recovered - not so for the Germans. Also the German process for repairing damaged aircraft was woeful. All German Gruppen were operating at depleted strength and this was getting worse each day. If the British had scraped the bottom of the barrel why were those losses not starting to come back for the Germans? Why were things getting worse not better?

The problems the Luftwaffe faced at the start of the BoB were about to get even worse.

With the launch of Sealion, the Luftwaffe are now artillery for the army, they need to pummel the airfields, they are defenders of the river barges and - if they want to throw away the remnants of the KM - their ships too. They are also ordered to attack RN shipping and of course - provide air superiority for the troops that did manage to land. Achieving air superiority was not achieved by the Luftwaffe up to the time of the planned invasion - there was even less chance of that being achieved once the invasion started and the sitting duck barges crept along the channel at 2-3 knots....


warspite1

Here is stat for the 6th September 1940 - shortly before the proposed invasion.

Fighter Command had over 750 serviceable fighters and 1,381 pilots - 950 of which flew the Spitfire or Hurricane.

This was 200 more pilots and 150 more aircraft than they had in July....

.....and here's another.

At the end of the battle Fighter Command had 40% more pilots than it began July with - 1,796 vs 1,259.

The Luftwaffe? I cannot see aircrew details but between July and December 1940 their fighter strength fell by 30% and bomber strength by 25%.

Ah, here we go.

Bf109 pilots - losses as a % of those operational for the three months:

July - 11%
August - 15%
September - 23%

as I say, things getting worse and worse for the Germans leading up to Hitler crying ENOUGH! After all he had Barbarossa to think about....

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/2/2015 1:50:27 AM >


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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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