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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 4:11:17 PM

obvert

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The USN would have been just as vulnerable as any other ships in the DEI, and there was a lot of fear that Hawaii, possibly even the West Coast would have been targeted after PH, so it is very unlikely after losing all of those ships, planes and most importantly men at PH that they would have committed significant forces forward into the PI. Even very mobile assets like the B-17 that didn't need sea transport were held up at Pearl to be used in defence of that region, delaying necessary crews and newer airframes to the groups fighting in the PI.

Small ships did make it though in the war, and can in the game too. It's these larger forces that would pose a real threat threat that I believe the Japanese would have responded to very aggressively, and yes, quickly. The AI cheats, but a human opponent would get there just as fast. Many have tried to do more in the DEI against the Japanese, and some have done well, including slowing the invasions to the point of throwing off the schedule, then building a fortress on the edges in Java or Sumatra, where resupply can happen for several months, that becomes a real thorn.

The issue with the PI is that it's right in the center of Japanese activity. They're moving this way already. They're planning to move into the Moluccas and have forces assigned to those areas. As the Allies found out many times, it was possible to stage strikes in and surprise the Japanese well into the late spring, but not to stick in any one destination regularly. The B-17s and other bombers running these missions were based in Australia, around Darwin, by spring 42, using Del Monte and Kendari and other bases to stage strikes. Japanese fighters had a range advantage and their bombers also had long legs, and there were a lot more of them.

quote:

Particularly the carrier war shows that the USN wasn�t behind the Japanese in that respect. Just my opinion. But in the beginning they wasted much time cruising
around the Pacific attacking small Japanese island garrisons. But, I�m sure it was good training.

I would disagree. The USN fought most battles on its terms in 42. At Coral Sea the strategic victory went to the Allies, but still the Lex was lost. It's important to remember that 4 USN CVs were lost in 42 in spite of Midway, and some even after airframes, experience and tactics improved.

Going deep into Japanese held territory turns the tables and suddenly the IJN has an intelligence advantage, a logistical advantage, LBA to supplement and weaken USN CVs and much closer repair and replenishment facilities. Try it in game even leaving out a third of the KB against three USN CVs (basically a Midway set-up) and I think it'll end up going badly for the Allies in early 42. The air groups are not adequately trained, there are still Buffaloes and TBDs on CVs and the USN knew these were obsolete, but didn't have anything else ready. Sub torpedoes don't work but no one knows that. Most cruisers are treaty classes and these suffered in close night engagements in the Solomons. The radar and AA weren't upgraded, ship crews were marginally experienced, and there was no precedent for a CV led amphibious operation. Even two years on Tarawa was a mess, and it's not like you would be able to sail right up to the docks of Bataan as you can in game.

quote:

Surely, but looking at each encounter there was as much the question of numbers and materiel that counted. A main part in my scenario is to get the numbers forward.
On Bataan the numbers were to US advantage. RL also shows that the Japanese were quite hung up in their original planning. They had to give up the (first) planned
occupation of Mindanao because some of the forces there were also meant to be used on the southbound advance through The Moluccans. The same happened in the game,
the AI actually withdrew completely from Davao, only to come back later. I wonder if the game is considering the number of potential Japanese conscripts in the
Davao area? Morrison, if I remember correctly, sets the number to 7.000.

There are good troops in the PI, but this is a new kind of war and the air power of the Japanese was a deciding factor. Why did the Allied forces get pushed back to Bataan in the first place? Why not keep Clark open and why give up Manila? Part of that is political, trying to save lives, part strategic, but it's not like the Allied forces were pushing the Japanese anywhere here.

Even if they had to leap frog, thus giving up rear area territory, it just didn't matter. What do you do when you have that territory as the Allies? You wait for them to come back and whoops, you're already encircled under an enemy air umbrella, just like on Mindanao. After Singers falls there is a whole bunch more to pour where it's needed.

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Post #: 121

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 4:16:36 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Have a look at the Wargmr vs njp72 game right now. The PI is not taken and it's into mid-42. Wargmr may have some insights for you about the possibility or impossibility of reinforcing/resupplying the PI.

I think this is an exceptional game where njp72 tried a very aggressive start with expansion in every direction but did not have enough to secure everything behind his perimeter, and Wargamr is especially good at taking advantage of that. I don't think the AI would ignore the programmed targets for long.

Exactly. But why has Wargmr decided not to reinforce the PI? That's the question that is relevant.

NJP did not attack the Philipines until late in the last game. In fact, I think I still held Singapore. Check the AAR "What could possibly go wrong?" for a very detailed AAR from the beginning till January 1945.

In my opinion the supply of the Phillipines is not sustainable and throwing good ships after lost troops is foolish. The only advantage of trying would be that I would divert some of his assets to sinking cargo ships and I do not need to draw his attention/forces in that direction at that cost.

NJP will shortly finish taking the Philipines. He has lost some fuel but otherwise strategically it has not hurt him IMO.

It would be interesting to see how you played a game under these conditions Obvert.

I would be crapping my pants!

You're doing very well in my opinion!

I am against the idea that the PI could possibly resupplied, either in game or that it could have been effectively enough done to at all change the outcome. I was hoping you'd simply give your perspective from experience, which is spot on. Not worth it.

_____________________________

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Post #: 122

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 4:33:47 PM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Baah, it is only a flesh wound!! The Allies are currently marching on Adelaide and Brisbane as we speak!!

Good luck with that! Depends perhaps if the Japanese have taken a liking to kangaroo meat and Aussie Geishas...So, you shall soon relieve the Philippines, then...?

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/4/2015 5:35:58 PM >

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Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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Post #: 123

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 4:37:55 PM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I am against the idea that the PI could possibly resupplied, either in game or that it could have been effectively enough done to at all change the outcome. I was hoping you'd simply give your perspective from experience, which is spot on. Not worth it.

Against the idea (which can have a somewhat dual meaning?) or possibility...?...

..

Fred

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Post #: 124

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 4:44:37 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I am against the idea that the PI could possibly resupplied, either in game or that it could have been effectively enough done to at all change the outcome. I was hoping you'd simply give your perspective from experience, which is spot on. Not worth it.

Against the idea (which can have a somewhat dual meaning?) or possibility...?.....

Fred

I don't think based on my interest in this period (but admittedly imperfect knowledge) that the PI could have been reinforced significantly enough to make any difference in the outcome.

You seem to be saying the US did not do enough there, but not examining the reasons why they didn't do enough.

_____________________________

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Post #: 125

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 5:00:22 PM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The USN would have been just as vulnerable as any other ships in the DEI, and there was a lot of fear that Hawaii, possibly even the West Coast would have been
targeted after PH, so it is very unlikely after losing all of those ships, planes and most importantly men at PH that they would have committed significant forces
forward into the PI. Even very mobile assets like the B-17 that didn't need sea transport were held up at Pearl to be used in defence of that region, delaying
necessary crews and newer airframes to the groups fighting in the PI.

Small ships did make it though in the war, and can in the game too. It's these larger forces that would pose a real threat threat that I believe the Japanese would
have responded to very aggressively, and yes, quickly. The AI cheats, but a human opponent would get there just as fast. Many have tried to do more in the DEI
against the Japanese, and some have done well, including slowing the invasions to the point of throwing off the schedule, then building a fortress on the edges in
Java or Sumatra, where resupply can happen for several months, that becomes a real thorn.

The issue with the PI is that it's right in the center of Japanese activity. They're moving this way already. They're planning to move into the Moluccas and have
forces assigned to those areas. As the Allies found out many times, it was possible to stage strikes in and surprise the Japanese well into the late spring, but
not to stick in any one destination regularly. The B-17s and other bombers running these missions were based in Australia, around Darwin, by spring 42, using Del
Monte and Kendari and other bases to stage strikes. Japanese fighters had a range advantage and their bombers also had long legs, and there were a lot more of them.

Thank you for your extensive reply. There is no discussion on what happened, or the probability of a different path staked out by Washington - but what could have
happened if they did. An aggressive US leadership and an extensively revised ABDA cooperation with the Aussies and Dutch doing their part in The Moluccans.

I'll use some time on this. So far the game has been fully up to my expectations as a possible databank for my project. Under the right circumstances I might even
let it decide the outcome of my project...

....

Fred

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Post #: 126

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 6:05:34 PM

Buckrock

Posts: 578
Joined: 3/16/2012
From: Not all there
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

You're welcome.

But given it's "crucial" role in your hypothetical scenario, it would still be interesting to hear from you on how exactly the Pensacola Convoy could have arrived
at Brisbane up to a week earlier if the historical high level command indecision that occurred after Dec 7th does not take place. As stated previously, I'm only
seeing the "being kept in limbo" aspect putting the convoy about a day overall behind schedule.

But, wasn't the convoy ordered several times to reverse its course? Did they make up for it?

Fred

The first OPNAV order to return to Honolulu was logged by the convoy at 2400 on the 9th Dec '41. By that time, one of the transports
had a shortage of water while another needed to conduct boiler repairs. A decision was therefore made to continue south and stop over
in Samoa before making the 2000nm+ trip back to Honolulu. Next day, the OPNAV order was cancelled (before Samoa was reached) and the
convoy was to instead make for Brisbane with the stop over now at Fiji.

A second "return to Honolulu" order from OPNAV was received on the 12th, specifying the convoy could continue to Fiji first for water
and needed repairs. But within a day, the convoy's final destination (after Fiji) was again changed back to Brisbane.

The end result was that the convoy never actually turned back at any point but rather kept a generally southward heading which led to
it arriving only about a day late for its originally scheduled stop-over (in Fiji).

This information is from the Pensacola's deck log as well as from the Nov/Dec '41 records of the 14th Naval District (Hawaii). Williford's
"Racing the Sunrise" also suggests the convoy never reversed course to return to Hawaii despite OPNAV's alternating orders.

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Post #: 127

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 8:08:41 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The USN would have been just as vulnerable as any other ships in the DEI, and there was a lot of fear that Hawaii, possibly even the West Coast would have been
targeted after PH, so it is very unlikely after losing all of those ships, planes and most importantly men at PH that they would have committed significant forces
forward into the PI. Even very mobile assets like the B-17 that didn't need sea transport were held up at Pearl to be used in defence of that region, delaying
necessary crews and newer airframes to the groups fighting in the PI.

Small ships did make it though in the war, and can in the game too. It's these larger forces that would pose a real threat threat that I believe the Japanese would
have responded to very aggressively, and yes, quickly. The AI cheats, but a human opponent would get there just as fast. Many have tried to do more in the DEI
against the Japanese, and some have done well, including slowing the invasions to the point of throwing off the schedule, then building a fortress on the edges in
Java or Sumatra, where resupply can happen for several months, that becomes a real thorn.

The issue with the PI is that it's right in the center of Japanese activity. They're moving this way already. They're planning to move into the Moluccas and have
forces assigned to those areas. As the Allies found out many times, it was possible to stage strikes in and surprise the Japanese well into the late spring, but
not to stick in any one destination regularly. The B-17s and other bombers running these missions were based in Australia, around Darwin, by spring 42, using Del
Monte and Kendari and other bases to stage strikes. Japanese fighters had a range advantage and their bombers also had long legs, and there were a lot more of them.

Thank you for your extensive reply. There is no discussion on what happened, or the probability of a different path staked out by Washington - but what could have
happened if they did. An aggressive US leadership and an extensively revised ABDA cooperation with the Aussies and Dutch doing their part in The Moluccans.

I'll use some time on this. So far the game has been fully up to my expectations as a possible databank for my project. Under the right circumstances I might even
let it decide the outcome of my project.......

Fred

It's an interesting question on the PI. I'm sure the US government and military leaders thought long and hard about having to abandon those forces, those men, there. That side I haven't read as much about but I have stumbled on many indications that the pans were there quite late to get some kind of help there.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Leandros)

Post #: 128

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/4/2015 9:09:53 PM

Mike McCreery

Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Baah, it is only a flesh wound!! The Allies are currently marching on Adelaide and Brisbane as we speak!!

Good luck with that! Depends perhaps if the Japanese have taken a liking to kangaroo meat and Aussie Geishas...So, you shall soon relieve the Philippines, then...?

Fred

The Phillipines are not on my radar in August of 1942. However, several island groups in the south pacific are certainly targets.

My plan is to split the board in 1/2 with the Phillipines being the northern part. Once a naval blockade is well and truly in place then I can consider the Phillipines. All this is dependent upon what kind of a fight and where NJP decides to defend.

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Post #: 129

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 7:26:13 AM

Leandros

Posts: 1740
Joined: 3/5/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

The end result was that the convoy never actually turned back at any point but rather kept a generally southward heading which led to
it arriving only about a day late for its originally scheduled stop-over (in Fiji).

This information is from the Pensacola's deck log as well as from the Nov/Dec '41 records of the 14th Naval District (Hawaii). Williford's
"Racing the Sunrise" also suggests the convoy never reversed course to return to Hawaii despite OPNAV's alternating orders.

Thank you very much for your extensive reply. I shall incorporate it in my schedules. Good judgement by the the convoy leader.....

Fred

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Post #: 130

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 7:40:48 AM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

The Phillipines are not on my radar in August of 1942. However, several island groups in the south pacific are certainly targets.

My plan is to split the board in 1/2 with the Phillipines being the northern part. Once a naval blockade is well and truly in place then I can consider the Phillipines. All this is dependent upon what kind of a fight and where NJP decides to defend.

Has there at all been any fighting around the Philippines?

Fred

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Post #: 131

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 8:17:09 AM

wdolson

Posts: 10398
Joined: 6/28/2006
From: Near Portland, OR
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Thank you for the tip. You have to consider my pre-requisite that the USN was wholly used for US purpose and not ABDA�s. Even several transports got through both
ways, none (that I know of � other than singular submarine missions) had any USN support. As late as the beginning of April a final mission was planned � Operation
PLUM � to supply Bataan by three inter-island freighters, supported by B-25�s and B-17�s flown up from Australia. Only the AAC was involved in supporting this. It
failed, partly because of a too tight schedule of the bombers meant to participate. Included in that force was a number of B-25�s. Imagine if Doolittle�s planes,
among others, had been used for such purposes instead. Surely, Doolittle�s raid was good for the domestic morale but it didn�t help the poor guys at Bataan very
much. I'm just hinting at actions taken that didn't do any good where it really mattered.

In the last year World War II magazine had an article about the planes that flew raids from Mindanao in early April 1942. The base they were flying from had not been discovered by the Japanese yet and some limited supplies had been stockpiled there, but there were only enough bombs for fly a few missions before stocks were exhausted. They did inflict some damage on Japanese shipping, but really all they could do was a pinprick.

I suppose the Doolittle Raiders could have been diverted to Australia aboard the Hornet, but really another 16 B-25s would not have made that big a difference. Supplies of spare parts and bombs in Australia were thin and even thinner in the Philippines. There was only one base left on Mindanao capable of operating them and once the Japanese put their mind to taking it down, there wouldn't have been much the US could have done to stop them. The base had virtually no AA and no fighter protection. The most likely outcome would have been a few missions, then the B-25s would have either been destroyed on the ground or flown back to Australia as soon as the Japanese started concentrating their bombers on the field.

At the time the Philippines fell, the USAAF in the region really hadn't worked out their best tactics yet. Fighter pilots were still falling back on training based on WW I experience and knowledge gained by the British fighting the Germans. Nobody had yet figured out the best way to defeat Japanese airpower was with kinetic tactics.

The B-17 was still believed to be the super ship killer weapon it had been hyped to be. Nobody had considered that it takes time for bombs to fall from altitude and a ship can simply move out of the way if it is underway. The B-25 and B-26 were brand new and completely untried. It was a big concession to sell some of the first B-25s to the Dutch. Similarly, the A-20 was a plane the USAAF hadn't really wanted and didn't really know what to do with it. It had been designed as an export attack bomber for the French and later British.

Pappy Gunn is the genius who made the B-25 and A-20 famous and useful with his field modifications, but he was in the Philippines and Java until those places were over run. He had retired from the Navy in the 1930s and ran a small airline in the PI. US use of their airpower in the SW Pacific was going to be somewhat awkward for a while yet.

Bill

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Post #: 132

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 8:37:23 AM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

In the last year World War II magazine had an article about the planes that flew raids from Mindanao in early April 1942. The base they were flying from had not
been discovered by the Japanese yet and some limited supplies had been stockpiled there, but there were only enough bombs for fly a few missions before stocks were
exhausted. They did inflict some damage on Japanese shipping, but really all they could do was a pinprick.

Bill

There's a book on it, too - Operation PLUM. Depressing reading, really.

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/5/2015 10:28:09 AM >

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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 8:39:43 AM

obvert

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Sorry. Above I mis-titled the book on B-17s in the Pacific. The correct title is "Fortress Against the Sun."

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fortress-Against-Sun-Flying-Pacific/dp/1580970494/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1430814122&sr=8-1&keywords=fortress in the pacific

As most reviewers on Amazon state, this is the most complete book on B-17s in the early days of the Pacific war and thus gets really detailed about the missions Bill mentions above. The limiting factors for missions flown were numerous in the PI and DEI. Airframes, parts, bombs, crews and crew fatigue, ground crews, field protection, fighter support, distances involved, ineffective equipment (Bendicks ball turret unuseable, on board oxygen systems often faulty or misplaced in the plane), equipment as yet untested in combat and found wanting when it was. The B-17C/D used early had almost no frontal protection and the Japanese figured that out pretty quickly, os field mods had to be made to these planes. In Java they found the fuel type used by the Dutch gummed up the engines and they had to ship fuel in rather than use the local stuff!

As Bill states the tactics known and expected to work at the time didn't. The air groups that were able to field planes and fly missions were only sporadically successful because they hadn't been in these situations before. They learned a lot, kept the Japanese on their toes but actually didn't slow their progress much at all.

_____________________________

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Post #: 134

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 8:45:49 AM

Leandros

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I have decided to continue my first game against the Japanese AI a couple of more weeks. I just have to see what the opposition does with my strengthened defense
line Timor-Saumlaki-Ambon. I shall be shorter and more intermittent in my reports than before. The general situation up till now is described in a previous posting.

A little update:

March 3rd 1942

Ambon/Namlea is heavily defended, Timor and Saumlaki not so much. Saumlaki shall have an airfield up and going in a few days. A second airfield is being upgraded
on the eastern part of Timor. The AIF is on its way from Aden. The 19th Brigade has already landed in Koepang.

The Japanese have taken Zamboanga � in one day! It was defended by the remnants of three regiments but to no avail, the enemy was ashore with 17.000 troops on the
first day if my information is correct. That leaves only two feeble resistance pockets on Zamboanga. Should I use resources to supply them?

There is enemy carrier plane activity in the Java Sea north of Soerebaja. I expect that TF soon to enter the Banda Sea from the west. I shall concentrate a
submarine force in its western approaches. There are also indications of carrier activity west of Jolo and east of Davao. The �inside� of the Moluccan Sea, with
its many weak Japanese garrisons, is practically in our hands. Every night half a dozen CL/DD forces are �doing the rounds� picking off transports and support
vessels wherever they find them. Happy hour for as long as it lasts.

It shall take a few more days before all the ground forces have unloaded in Namlea and Ambon. In the meantime I�m running the present fighter forces on maximum
readiness to cover the ships. The enemy has been flying bombing sorties out of Menado. Both Namlea and Ambon now have SCR-270 radar setups. As have Koepang and
Saumlaki.

The pressure on PM is increasing with daily bombings originating out of the Lae area. An Aussie Kittyhawk squadron is due in Brisbane shortly. I shall have it
transferred to PM ASAP. That shall be the first real fighter defense there. So far, the US is only participating in the PM defense with a Coastal Defense regiment.
Some of it is already ashore.

The newly-lost islands in the Pacific is a drag - much work with rerouting convoys.

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/5/2015 10:02:06 AM >

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Post #: 135

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 9:03:42 AM

Leandros

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Joined: 3/5/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Sorry. Above I mis-titled the book on B-17s in the Pacific. The correct title is "Fortress Against the Sun."

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fortress-Against-Sun-Flying-Pacific/dp/1580970494/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1430814122&sr=8-1&keywords=fortress in the pacific

Looks good - thank you! I've put it on my list.

Fred

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Post #: 136

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/5/2015 5:32:33 PM

Buckrock

Posts: 578
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From: Not all there
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros
There is no discussion on what happened, or the probability of a different path staked out by Washington - but what could have happened if they did. An aggressive US leadership and an extensively revised ABDA cooperation with the Aussies and Dutch doing their part in The Moluccans.

Just as an historical observation and not as a comment on what should or shouldn't happen in AE......

An "aggressive US leadership" that has the Philippines as its only priority is not going to find it easy to convince the historical Dutch and Australians to get into step. The Dutch wanted direct military aid to hold onto the most valuable parts of the DEI. The Aussies wanted the US Navy to defend Rabaul and they also wanted to receive US fighter aircraft, preferably several hundred of them to protect Australian population centres from air attack. And they wanted it now.

Unfortunately, the US just promising to make a better fight in the Philippines wouldn't be that convincing a deal given the concerns in both Australia and the DEI about the threat from possible Japanese advances into the South China Sea and the South Pacific.

And why this US focus on the northern Moluccas? It only seems likely with hindsight. Manado was not a key defence point for the Dutch. They already had their planned defence line of Samarinda-Kendari-Ambon with Tarakan as the primary forward staging base. The US was aware of this and had indicated during the Singapore Conferences that any of its own air and ground forces deployed to the DEI would likely reinforce the planned Dutch line, with Tarakan also acting as the linking airfield for ferrying US aircraft to the Philippines.

As for the Aussies, they had sent their precious forces to Ambon and Timor because a) it was part of a pre-war regional defence agreement with the Dutch and British and b) it ensured that two sizable airfields that were only 500 miles from Darwin would not easily fall into Japanese hands. I'd be very interested then to hear what would convince the Australians to suddenly throw away their previous deployments (some were already on the ground in Timor) and instead rush them more than 400 miles further north (of Ambon) to some place they'd likely never done any planning for. Did the Australians in 1941 ever really consider the US holding the Philippines (as opposed to the US sending reinforcements to Australia and the DEI) to be vital for Australia's defence?

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Post #: 137

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 12:58:53 AM

wdolson

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Another problem that faced anyone proposing an aggressive defense of the Philippines is the very real problem of forces being cut off. One of the first things taught in any military's staff colleges is to keep your lines tight and prevent your forces getting cut off and isolated. It has happened many times in the history of warfare, but it's almost always considered a disaster.

The Allies had very few resources to go around in the early going. Pushing all in in the PI robs forces from other places in between rear areas that could be defended like Australia and the PI. If one or more islands in the PI proved initially to be too well defended, the Japanese had the option of bypassing them and going to softer targets on Borneo and to the south. This pushes Japanese forces closer to Australia sooner, probably forces the DEI to collapse sooner, and ultimately traps a large force deep behind enemy lines.

The US did the same thing to Japan, isolating and cutting off many islands held by the Japanese that were either too tough to tackle easily, or not worth the effort. To prevent starvation of their garrisons, the Japanese had to convert most of the submarine fleet into transport boats and at that they could barely keep the garrisons fed a starvation diet.

Following good staff college practice, the Allies had to write off the garrisons too deep in enemy territory and concentrated the bulk of their efforts on strengthening the line they felt could be defended. Thus while the PI was disintegrating the US was reinforcing island garrisons in the South Pacific and moving war goods to Eastern Australia. I'm sure it was a hard decision to make, but it was ultimately the best one for winning the war.

Bill

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(in reply to Buckrock)

Post #: 138

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 6:55:51 AM

Leandros

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Sorry, guys - but if I was to start discussing, and justifying, the pre-requisites I have set up for the subject of this thread I won't have time to actually go
through with the "experiment" this is supposed to be. It's time-consuming enough as it is. I'll only say that it was not a law of nature that the Philippines
should be cut off, there were two parties to decide on that. OTH, if my theory is verified it is the Japanese that shall be cut off - in the game...

... Then
we can discuss.

You guys feel free to discuss this but I am not going to participate in that for now. I simply do not have the time.....

...

Fred

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Post #: 139

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 7:02:37 AM

Mike McCreery

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I am not sure anyone was asking you to justify your pre-requisites.

What you found out is the river is wide and deep in this forum ;]

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Post #: 140

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 7:16:02 AM

wdolson

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People don't learn things without some experimentation and research. It's worth a shot.

Bill

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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 7:47:45 AM

Buckrock

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Sorry, guys - but if I was to start discussing, and justifying, the pre-requisites I have set up for the subject of this thread I won't have time to actually go through with the "experiment" this is supposed to be.

Apologies if that's the case but a public AAR that comes complete with opinions on real war possiblities may attract comment.

I thought it had been an appropriate time to question the plausibility of your historical assumptions as you'd announced the end of your current AAR and plans for another in the future. I unfortunately then missed seeing your recent post stating the AAR was being resumed.

Please continue.

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Post #: 142

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 9:39:53 AM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

Please continue.

Thank you - appreciate it...

Fred

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Post #: 143

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 9:50:49 AM

Leandros

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Discovered that I have missed three sources for supplies of men and materiel, Cape Town, Abadan and the West Coast. As of yet, I have not drawn on any of those.
This is remedied now and men and materiel are put on trains from the East to the West Coast.

March 6th 1942.

The enemy has control of almost all of Java. Sumatra is pretty much ignored.

CL Dragon was torpedoed after a nightly bombardment of Menado. I was stupid enough to keep it hanging around. It got away, but damaged. Menado airfield was bombed
during its withdrawal process but not very heavily.

At the same time a bombing mission was sent against Ternate. Zeros flying from there have been over Ambon. 6 B-17E�s and 3 Aussie Hudsons went in at 15.000 feet
and 3 of the first B-26�s in the area at 1.000 feet. All escorted by P-36�s flying out of Namlea. Not much damage on the airfield but one Zero was destroyed on
the ground by the B-26�s. 4 B-17�s were damaged and one Hudson lost.

More enemy transports sunk during last night and day.

Continuing the build-up of the Moluccan strongholds and the preparations in Darwin for a Menado amphibious invasion force. 6 AP�s have been assembled so far. Maybe
I should go for Ternate first? Good airfield there now.

CV Saratoga never came within range of the alleged enemy CV TF north of Soerabaja. I believe these are CVE�s. Now I have positioned the Saratoga TF just south of
Bima so it can make another foray into the Western Banda Sea tomorrow, coordinated with Dutch bombers flying out of Denpasar and Makassar. Hopefully, Saratoga�s
planes shall catch it then.

CV Yorktown, fully repaired, has left SF together with three old battlewagons - Idaho and Mississippi among them. The TF shall skirt PH to pick up another squadron
of fighters for Yorktown and a TF carrying a Marines detachment heading for Christmas Island. This has been in Japanese hands for some time now. After supporting
the landing the battlewagons shall return to the West Coast. Some deliberately sloppy radio communication and domestically planted press releases shall hopefully
result in some wasted use of Japanese resources.

A 6-ship APD TF that just came through the Canal has been routed via SF for refuelling for the onward jouney to PH. I shall connect them with an oiler in PH. These
ships are meant for future landing operations in the Moluccans. They shall probably not get that far before I start a new game.

The first Aussie Kittyhawk squadron has arrived in Port Moresby.

I don�t know why he is doing it but day after day the enemy is bombing Iloilo from Luzon and Jolo. Is it because he is out of ground forces, having used his
resources against Zamboanga? He is spreading himself terribly thin now, putting units in at every small town and island. Anyway, that large Zamboanga force shall
probably soon be directed southwards again. Concentration is everything. That said, I have concentrated a submarine force in the western and NE approaches to the
Banda Sea. Some Dutch among them.

As long as I have Ambon and Namlea his Moluccan Sea operations shall cost him dearly in transports and support vessels. That is, as long as I can keep up my CL and
DD forces there for their nightly forays. Some of them are quite damaged and out of ammo. 1 CL (Dragon) and 4 DD�s are sent to Darwin for repairs. Four ships I
reckon are too damaged to go.

Fred

The �ships sunk� statistics are holding up well:

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/6/2015 10:53:03 AM >

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Post #: 144

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 12:12:21 PM

BBfanboy

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That bombing attack on Iloilo sounds like the AI getting "stuck" and not moving on with its program for those air units. Some players have reported that when the AI gets stuck they have to do something deliberately stupid to get it unstuck - like give the IJA air groups on Luzon a small TF to attack.

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(in reply to Leandros)

Post #: 145

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/6/2015 12:32:56 PM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

That bombing attack on Iloilo sounds like the AI getting "stuck" and not moving on with its program for those air units. Some players have reported that when the AI gets stuck they have to do something deliberately stupid to get it unstuck - like give the IJA air groups on Luzon a small TF to attack.

Not me....

...I don't have one in the vicinity, anyway.

Fred

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Post #: 146

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/7/2015 8:03:10 AM

Leandros

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Strange things happen in-between in the game play. I mentioned, and got a response to, the daily repeated Japanese bombings of Iloilo from Luzon and Jolo. While
they have taken Mindanao no effort has been made against the other, Visayan, islands. Otherwise, they are spreading themselves thinly all over the map.

I see air units that have been stood down still fly offensive sorties. On the last turn all the Wildcats of Saratoga were missioned on �CAP�, not LR CAP, still
they operated over a couple of my ships way up in a Celebes bay, far away from the carrier.

A planned escort of a large fighter unit with pilots of high morale never showed up even if they were planned towards the same target and flying on the same
altitude.

Of a new bomber unit �in town� only 3 of 12 showed up over the target even if the target was quite close to their departure point. Well, thinking about it, these
last points may be caused by wx�s. But, the inexperienced dive bombers which were slaughtered by the Zeros reached their target.

But, sometimes, it feels like the game takes a little too much control over matters of which there are facilities in the game meant to control it. Not really
complaining, though. This is quite interesting.

March 8th 1942.

My planned ambush of the enemy CV TF north of Soerebaja did not come off as I had hoped for. I�m afraid I could have fared quite badly if I had been closer to it.
It started with recce reports that CV Zuikaku was sighted. After that, a Hiryu class CV. Then the Saratoga TF�s �tail�, at that time it was heading east again, was
attacked by carrier planes with no ill effects.

BB Royal Sovereign, with a couple of destroyers, that has been �loaned� from the British (some hard pushing by Roosevelt on Churchill to achieve that) after having
escorted an AIF convoy down from Aden, was bombed outside Macassar. Luckily, some Wildcats from Saratoga were in the area. Cost the enemy 4 destroyed and 1
damaged Betty out of 6. Later in the day the old battlewagon hit upon a Japanese transport convoy in the middle of the Banda Sea. No idea what it was doing there
but the Royal Sovereign and her cohorts made short process of it. More than 3.000 Japanese perished.

The enemy Bettys have indeed been remarkably ineffective lately. Several attacks against shipping in open sea have resulted in little but destroyed and damaged
Bettys.

Dutch DD Piet Hein was attacked by torpedo-armed Bettys in the same area as the Royal Sovereign. Claimed 6 out of 6 by AA.

Dutch CL�s Java and Sumatra with two destroyers were attacked by 6 Bettys escorted by Zeros outside Ternate. 6 Bettys damaged, no hits. The Dutch obviously have
good AA equipment and crews. In PM, however, 15 Bettys were successful in torpedoing an Aussie AK and damaging an AP during unloading.

All Saratoga�s VS�s and VB�s, the Devastators loaded up with bombs, were searching in the west to no avail. It ended with that. Pulling the Saratoga TF south now.

The nightly rounds to the occupied ports of the Moluccan Sea bagged a number of transport and support vessels.

An A-24 dive bombing attack on Ternate ended in disaster in spite of a planned escort of 20 P-36�s. They never showed up in the combat reports. The 13 A-24�s were
jumped by 10 Zeros. All A-24�s went down.

As new P-40 squadrons have arrived in Australia I have initiated a withdrawal of worn-out squadrons to the airfields around Darwin. They have all been driven hard and are
getting very low on morale. I wish I had more P-36�s.

Shortlands has been occupied. Batavia is under attack but the defenders are giving the aggressors a hard time. Not everything is going the Japanese way, however.
The defenders of Sabang, on the northern point of Sumatra, beat back the invaders - those Japanese having come ashore surrendered.

The Aussie Kittyhawk squadron in Port Moresby have made their first sweep over Salamua even if they have not been ordered to do so. On the contrary.

Horn Island in the Torres Strait is being bombed by Bettys flying from Rabaul. Is this just to show off? Probably a good idea to put a section of P-40�s there�

The Aussies are eagerly waiting for a squadron of Beaufighters arriving in two weeks� time. That shall be interesting. B-25�s in a month.

Fred

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Post #: 147

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/7/2015 8:38:20 AM

obvert

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quote:

I see air units that have been stood down still fly offensive sorties. On the last turn all the Wildcats of Saratoga were missioned on �CAP�, not LR CAP, still
they operated over a couple of my ships way up in a Celebes bay, far away from the carrier.

A planned escort of a large fighter unit with pilots of high morale never showed up even if they were planned towards the same target and flying on the same
altitude.

This is called 'bleeding CAP.' The planes set likely had CAP and a several hex range set. They will defend distant targets on this kind of setting if able to make it in time. This works especially if the attacked ships have radar.

LR CAP is very finicky. We'd have to see your actual settings to help. Sometimes if you set them to 100% LR CAP they will wear out and come back to the CV to refuel before the actual battle occurs. I prefer a percentage LR CAP.

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Post #: 148

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/7/2015 9:43:47 AM

Leandros

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is called 'bleeding CAP.' The planes set likely had CAP and a several hex range set. They will defend distant targets on this kind of setting if able to make
it in time. This works especially if the attacked ships have radar.

LR CAP is very finicky. We'd have to see your actual settings to help. Sometimes if you set them to 100% LR CAP they will wear out and come back to the CV to refuel before the actual battle occurs. I prefer a percentage LR CAP.

You may be right about this, I think maybe I had forgotten to adjust the hex range. I agree on your comment on the LR CAP percentage. It's shaping up...

Fred

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Post #: 149

RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR - 5/7/2015 9:46:06 AM

Leandros

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There is an (obviously) important side of the game I have only recently involved myself fully in � that of repairs. I�ve done superficial adjustments on ships in
Darwin and Sydney, and Yorktown in SF, but none in PH. I see how important this is now. Reading the manual and going through PH ships in repair gives me 3 SS�s,
2 DD�s and 3 CL�s in less than two weeks, as opposed to indefinite.

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 5/7/2015 10:44:38 AM >

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