Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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As an Allied player who has been in this position (or similar positions) many times, including against John, I can tell you that Michael is not considering Nome. He has two options: make a run for the northeast on the prediciton that John moves W or SW. Alternatively and on the assumption that running NE would be suicidal, making SW in hopes of seeking refuge in Hawaii or points S or SW. Michael should have plenty of fuel, so I'm guessing he'll choose option two. It would be tough for John to chase him down - perhaps impossible. But John has bigger fish to fry, so perhaps John can scare Michael a bit while transitioning his full focus to the invasion of Hawaii. Right about now, Michael should be freaking out. His carriers are in no-man's-land and the enemy seems to be everywhere, particularly SoPac and in the vicinity of Hawaii. It is likely that Michael will decide to move his southern group of carriers to SoPac with an eye towards either picking off enemy TFs in the absence of the KB or, eventually, consolidating his CVs to respond to John's threat(s). (There is a small chance Michael would react to the contrary, by using his southern carriers in the DEI, but I think that's unlikely.) This is not the time for John to go chasing after zephyrs. He has the main ballgame about to get underway. He'd better attend to it fully. He probably can't win the war by taking Hawaii, but he can certainly lose it during the process. But if he takes Hawaii, that alone is such a signal achievement that he can rest on his laurels for quite some time (and John is the kind of player that enjoys that feeling immensely!) and make things rather hard on Michael through the end of '42 and into early '43. But come mid '43, all bets are off. John, you're doing great. Keep it up!
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