IdahoNYer
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From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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End of May 42 Summary
Another interesting month. As expected, a new front was in fact opened up by the IJA, just not anywhere I expected it, by landing at Normanton, Aus. What was also surprising was L_S_T splitting off Kaga and Akagi to the Mini-KB, and finding that little tidbit out the hard way with the War’s second Carrier Battle, again off Port Hedland. Like last month’s battle, this one was also inconclusive, and with the 2xUS CVs not participating as planned, I was lucky not to have lost this engagement decisively. Also fortunately with this fiasco, was that the British Surface TF near Port Hedland wasn’t clobbered by carrier airpower but managed to inflict some damage on the IJN and withdraw. While Allied naval losses were minimal during the month, IJN airpower mauled two troop convoys, one off Port Hedland and the other in SOPAC. On the positive side, the US CV raid in CENPAC was fortunate to find a small convoy at sea, and made short work of it. Also positive was no major disaster befell the Chinese army, although they are steadily losing ground to the IJA near Sian. At the end of the month, the Allies managed to conduct the first amphib operation by taking back Efate. Naval loss ratio for the month was very positive, of course some of these IJN losses may come back from their watery grave; IJN reported losses for the month were 1BB, 1CA, 4CL, 5DD and 2SS as compared to the Allies losing only 2DD and 1SS. Air losses were also in the Allies favor, 532 for Jpn to 395 Allied. Lastly, two new aircraft were identified - the Rufe was engaged over Attu and the Nick was observed over Burma.
Screenshot shows Allied Forces disposition - Notes: 1)Ships are in service, not under refit or stood down. 2) a/c shown are combat available, not trainers or deployed on CVs. 3) CENPAC and Ceylon subs are those against IJN shipping or those bringing supply to Bataan, other Theater subs shown are “in close” for defense of that Theater. 4) Eng are Construction or Port Maint Bns, not BFs.
So what is next for the mighty Japanese Empire? SIGINT isn’t helping much in that regard. While I don’t think he’s ready to concede the initiative just yet, I don’t anticipate another major landing or offensive - with the possible exception of perhaps, just perhaps - a landing on the coast of NE Australia. That is the only possible reason I can figure for the purpose of the Normanton landing - draw Allied forces off the coastal defenses, then invade the NE coast and trap them. While that may be the most dangerous course of action, its also the most risky, and probably least likely. Still, just the threat of it will tie down troops on the Australian coast. Most likely at this point is the IJA continuing current operations - take Darwin and eliminate the Allied refugee army heading south, secure Akyab and Lashio in Burma, and in China, take Sian and Wenchow.
SUBWAR: Subs haven’t done much the last month for a number of reasons. First, L_S_T has been very successful in his ASW efforts, as well as his convoy routing. Second, I’ve devoted a significant number of subs to resupply missions - Bataan, Darwin and Port Hedland. Third, I’ve kept a number of subs “close in” as part of defensive measure off the NW Australian coast and the New Hebrides which offer good search capabilities and the seldom chance to hit a warship. The most effective sub weapon has been the mine - there just aren’t enough mines in the inventory! Once Bataan and Darwin fall, most fleet subs will go back to hunting the merchant marine.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Will finish out the stragglers for the 4/42 upgrades and start the 6/42 upgrades on BBs as a priority. Will get Sara into the yards for her 6/42 upgrade, then Lex when she finishes. Fuel situation has improved in Australia, but will continue to push tanker convoys out of Cape Town and the US. Pilot training progresses well, and I’m still short airframes more than pilots. P-40s and P-39s are now very low and I don’t have the planes to sustain attritional fighter combat.
NOPAC. Attu remains the only IJA possession and will start to work to change that. Although I see no reason to expect the IJN to appear any time soon, the USN will maintain a fairly robust surface force which will focus on bombarding Attu through the month. The Marine 22nd Reg will spearhead the invasion, and it is due to arrive in about 2wks. So, the target date for invading Attu is the end of June.
CENPAC. Nothing going on here. I’ve pulled most of the warships out to other theaters, and a good portion of the aircraft as well. No plans for any Allied offensive action here for a while, and will continue to use Midway/Pearl as a hub for sub operations.
SOPAC. Looking to sustain the initiative here after taking Efate. First small steps on a long journey have to begin somewhere. Next step is Luganville (defended) and taking back Tanna (undefended). As long as the KB remains away, will continue north. Goal here is also to prevent the KB from raiding the shipping lanes east of Australia. That would be a welcome change. Should the KB come raiding, I’m not ready for a CV fight unless I can ensure I’m in range of LBA out of Noumea. That’s a small window, and I doubt L_S_T will fall into it.
SWPAC. First off, SWPAC is now fighting in two directions, so I’ve created “Western Australia Command” which will be responsible for Tennant Creek west, while SWPAC will focus on Normanton and east, and eventually up into New Guinea. SWPAC will remain the priority of US Army ground reinforcement, and the 40th ID is already enroute by brigades to augment the 32nd ID. The challenge will be to eliminate the landing at Normanton while holding firm on the coast - that will take a lot of troops. L_S_T has shown some interest in Cooktown, and will prioritize getting troops there.
WAUS. While SWPAC will be led by US ground troops, WAUS will be led by Australian troops backed by US troops and support. The US 41st Div will move to hold Tennant Creek, and I fully expect to lose most troops pulling back from Daly Waters. I expect Darwin to fall this month - only being defended by a Bde, out of supply. Carnarvon has been successfully established as a forward base, and Exmouth also needs to be established to support operations toward Port Hedland. The intent is to hold Port Hedland, but to do it without a major naval commitment - the threat is just too high. That will be a challenge.
Bataan. Amazingly, still standing at Bataan going into June! Getting the xAK in really helped the supply situation as the sub runs are just not enough. One more xAK is enroute, and will continue pushing subs in, but with the IJA 56th Div identified, I have to think the ground assault is close. Hopefully, L_S_T will attack while I have some supplies and give his troops a bloody nose before capitulating.
Burma/India. Well, the seaborne invasions in the Indian Ocean did not materialize! Even the expected end-around to grab Akyab didn’t happen - instead the overland slog was chosen. I expect to lose Akyab by the end of Jun, but should have enough troops on the ground to firmly hold Chittagong. I’m going to take some risk in pulling out the British 18th Div from Ceylon, and replacing it with a Bde size Indian Div which is rebuilding after being destroyed in Malaya. The interesting fight has been for Lashio - which I expected to fall quickly, but is still holding out with a mere Chinese Div defending it. Further, the British troops that went into the jungle after the fall of Mandalay, may just make it back to friendly lines. I still have the US 27th ID “training” at Cape Town and will likely commit that division to India at some point - unless something unexpected happens in Australia.
China. I still hate fighting in China. At least I’m learning through hard lessons, and may not lose an army in the defense of Sian. But I will lose Sian. And probably Lanchow as well. Despite the bad terrain, the IJA continues to push the Chinese forces back and cause heavy losses. Lack of supply is becoming more of a problem, and I don’t see any relief to that issue. In the SE, Wenchow continues to be a thorn in the IJA side. While the AVG is still present, planes are few and replacement P-40s are fewer.
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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 4/25/2015 6:46:58 PM >
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