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RE: The Perils of Victory

 
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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/1/2015 10:28:01 PM   
Sangeli


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So I thought about this a bit last night. Here's what I concluded...

I think that ultimately a NA adventure only makes sense if you can get the AV. I fear that any damage you can put on industry, even of very important air frames, won't have a lasting consequence.

On the other hand, I think there is much to be gained by isolating Australia by taking Perth and moving deep into the SoPac. Such a move is possible without PH as well, but with PH in your hands your eastern flank is a lot more secure. You won't need a lot to secure the rest of the SoPac nor will you need a lot to defend it for a long time.

What I'd be interested in seeing is trying to set up a convoy choke-point somewhere in French Polynesia using patrol planes and subs to give you warning of approaching convoys. French Polynesia is one of the few places on the map that goes near the very southern edge; it is theoretically possible to have continuous patrol coverage to the map edge. Yes its a very long supply route but if you are only using the bases for patrol planes it's not a huge logistical requirement. But spotting convoys is only half of it of course; you then have to interdict them. And being able to get the fuel and supply for the interdiction may prove very challenging given the distances involved. Truth be told I'm not sure how viable that plan is. It will depend a lot on how Michael deals with the convoy situation and how early you spot his convoys. If you are able to keep an eye on them with subs and patrol planes as they move through the chokepoints then I imagine you could probably do a lot of damage.

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YUM! - 7/2/2015 1:43:05 AM   
John 3rd


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Just got home and haven't had a chance to read the thread but did run the turn. Had a VERY NICE SS Round:

I-21 SINKS DD Bagley near San Diego with 1 TT
RO-33 CRIPPLES CL Boise with two TTs near Broome. GREAT!!!

...and the BIG one...for the SECOND time this war...

I-21 hits CV Saratoga with a TT near San Diego.


BANZAI!!!





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Lookie #1 - 7/2/2015 1:44:02 AM   
John 3rd


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I KNEW IT!






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Lookie #2 - 7/2/2015 1:45:28 AM   
John 3rd


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I was SOOOOOOOOOOOO right. I know my opponent!





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RE: Lookie #2 - 7/2/2015 1:45:44 AM   
John 3rd


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OK. Time for dinner...


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RE: Lookie #2 - 7/2/2015 3:49:40 AM   
BattleMoose

 

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Couldn't you have a picket lines of submarines based from Fiji for scouting and release interdiction fleets also based from Suva? Or Pago Pago even. After a few successful interdictions he may well position substantial assets to protect the convoys and they can actually be the primary target.

< Message edited by BattleMoose -- 7/2/2015 4:57:16 AM >

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RE: Lookie #2 - 7/2/2015 4:03:15 AM   
John 3rd


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It seems widening the salient by taking Suva--Nadi makes sense.

Taking the Marquesa's would move the air search line significantly eastwards.



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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 4:06:48 AM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait

I'd have to agree that interdicting the SLOC from West Coast to SOPAC to OZ is not terribly useful if you leave the East Coast-Cape Town-Oz route open. Unfortunately, it seems like the Indian Ocean route can really only be closed at either end, Cape Town or Oz. The rest of the route is all open ocean. And I agree with others that taking Perth is not a one-and-done route to closing the Indian Ocean SLOC.

In fact closing (or even just seriously threatening) the Pacific SLOC pretty much removes the usefulness of using Pearl for raiding (you can't raid shipping that doesn't exist) or creating a fleet engagement. If I were playing the Allies, the fleet engagement won't happen until I was ready to counter-invade Pearl, which is probably quite a ways away. That makes Pearl a strategic problem because you either need to maintain lots of surface assets near there almost continuously (meaning they can't be used elsewhere), or inevitably ceding the initiative to the USN when the invasion does happen, probably late when they are at near parity in carriers anyways.

Closing both SLOCs at the same time, if it can even be accomplished, might get you a fleet engagement near Oz, or force the Allies to take single-axis approach (like India-Burma-Southeast Asia) that abandons Oz completely.

My thoughts anyways,
Mike

P.S. My stirring-the-pot, not very practicable, lunatic suggestion would be to invade Cape Town. Really make Michael sweat.


This thinking is pretty seriously good. I WANT Michael using convoys that I can go after and SINK. Taking everything in the far SE of the map would probably preclude that from happening, however, using Pago Pago and Suva as advanced bases makes for a bit of excitement.

The two screenshots above conclusively PROVE where each of the major portions of the American and Allied Fleets. This is a HUGE intel boon. It proves what I already suspected and allows for some serious opportunity...


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RE: Home Islands - 7/2/2015 4:47:15 AM   
Justus2


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Turn ONE looks good. Had to make some minor corrections when I test drove it but now we're OK. SAFETY TIP for new players: Always run your turn a couple of times before you send it for the start of the war. With all those 1,000s of clicks you are bound to miss one or make a boneheaded choice with a another.


Just now trying to get caught up on this AAR! Great to see how you organize Japan's initial forces with a major strategic push right off the bat.

Sorry to quote a post from months ago, but I got to this point and was confused - how do you run a turn before you send it? I thought once you set it up as a PBEM game, you couldn't switch it to vs AI? I've been playing Japan in several scenarios, but haven't tried in a GC yet (that's my next goal). Thanks!

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 11:05:44 AM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd


quote:

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait

I'd have to agree that interdicting the SLOC from West Coast to SOPAC to OZ is not terribly useful if you leave the East Coast-Cape Town-Oz route open. Unfortunately, it seems like the Indian Ocean route can really only be closed at either end, Cape Town or Oz. The rest of the route is all open ocean. And I agree with others that taking Perth is not a one-and-done route to closing the Indian Ocean SLOC.

In fact closing (or even just seriously threatening) the Pacific SLOC pretty much removes the usefulness of using Pearl for raiding (you can't raid shipping that doesn't exist) or creating a fleet engagement. If I were playing the Allies, the fleet engagement won't happen until I was ready to counter-invade Pearl, which is probably quite a ways away. That makes Pearl a strategic problem because you either need to maintain lots of surface assets near there almost continuously (meaning they can't be used elsewhere), or inevitably ceding the initiative to the USN when the invasion does happen, probably late when they are at near parity in carriers anyways.

Closing both SLOCs at the same time, if it can even be accomplished, might get you a fleet engagement near Oz, or force the Allies to take single-axis approach (like India-Burma-Southeast Asia) that abandons Oz completely.

My thoughts anyways,
Mike

P.S. My stirring-the-pot, not very practicable, lunatic suggestion would be to invade Cape Town. Really make Michael sweat.


This thinking is pretty seriously good. I WANT Michael using convoys that I can go after and SINK. Taking everything in the far SE of the map would probably preclude that from happening, however, using Pago Pago and Suva as advanced bases makes for a bit of excitement.

The two screenshots above conclusively PROVE where each of the major portions of the American and Allied Fleets. This is a HUGE intel boon. It proves what I already suspected and allows for some serious opportunity...



Can't say what your opponent would do, but if you went as far as Pago Pago against me that would trigger an abandonment of any effort to get to OZ across the Pacific and divert everything to Cape Town.

Pago Pago is poised to interdict any attempts to get by it further south and would certainly serve as a trigger for me.

Perhaps you opponent will still try to make runs to Auckland from Panama as they enter near the lower map edge and head straight across south of Tahiti.


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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 11:12:33 AM   
BattleMoose

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Can't say what your opponent would do, but if you went as far as Pago Pago against me that would trigger an abandonment of any effort to get to OZ across the Pacific and divert everything to Cape Town.

Pago Pago is poised to interdict any attempts to get by it further south and would certainly serve as a trigger for me.

Perhaps you opponent will still try to make runs to Auckland from Panama as they enter near the lower map edge and head straight across south of Tahiti.



He already has Pago Pago, hence my suggestion to go for Perth and close the Cape Town - Perth option.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 2:03:47 PM   
HansBolter


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Perth doesn't close the Cape Town to OZ route.

Convoys from Cape Town to OZ enter the map edge due south of their destination.

Taking Perth will divert the convoys further east to Adelaide/Melbourne.

This can be obstructed by the KB, but at great cost in fuel.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 2:19:03 PM   
Yakface


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Just take all of Australia - that'll stop those pesky Allied convoys finding a way in

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 2:33:16 PM   
John 3rd


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Still thinking and pondering. Am planning on the Alaskan adventure since I already have the troops up there. The rest is still up in the air.

Just refueled all my CVs (took 40,000!) and they can move out whenever.

AA has seemingly heated up over Pearl Harbor. I had dropped down to 9,000 Ft before the landing and did not take many losses. The last two days have been brutal losing 11 and 16 planes respectively. Back UP to 11,000 Ft! Anything hitting the Port doesn't get much damage but the planes hitting troops and AF are sure catching it.


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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 2:33:41 PM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yakface

Just take all of Australia - that'll stop those pesky Allied convoys finding a way in



Been there and accomplished that Sir!

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 2:59:55 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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Careful with the screenshots. We can see your bank account password.

What is that huge Allied force doing near the Timor Sea? 3 carriers. BB's? Surely that is not simply a reinforcement convoy?

Do you own any of the big oil resource centers near there?

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 3:08:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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You can shut down Oz (or make supply highly risky) by taking bases to each side and then maintining air patrols and combat ships to react. IE, if John holds Perth and vicinity, and also controls the South Pacific, Michael's resupply of Oz becomes problematic. He can use Adelaide, but that route is exposed. It does take alot of fuel to maintin the threat.

John, one thing you might consider doing is employing a strategy in the form of a maximum bluff against North America. If you create the appearance you're about to do something big, and back it up with patrols, taking bases in Alaska (and perhaps down the panhandle into Canada), Michael might freak enough to either make a mistake or concentrate so heavily on defending North America that he throws himself off schedule by a few months. This may be your best option (credible and, since you're already up there in force, efficient).

Micheal's in a tough position for a few more months. If he gets antsy about No Am, he may commit his carriers (unlikely). If he tries to leap forward somewhere in the Indian Ocean, it's too early so that John can jump all over the offensive and kill it (kind of like what he did to my Sumatra invasion in the last game that John and I played). Michael's best strategy is to pick and probe and prepare, avoiding a major offensive that can't be sustained this early in the game.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 3:13:27 PM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You can shut down Oz (or make supply highly risky) by taking bases to each side and then maintining air patrols and combat ships to react. IE, if John holds Perth and vicinity, and also controls the South Pacific, Michael's resupply of Oz becomes problematic. He can use Adelaide, but that route is exposed. It does take alot of fuel to maintin the threat.

John, one thing you might consider doing is employing a strategy in the form of a maximum bluff against North America. If you create the appearance you're about to do something big, and back it up with patrols, taking bases in Alaska (and perhaps down the panhandle into Canada), Michael might freak enough to either make a mistake or concentrate so heavily on defending North America that he throws himself off schedule by a few months. This may be your best option (credible and, since you're already up there in force, efficient).

Micheal's in a tough position for a few more months. If he gets antsy about No Am, he may commit his carriers (unlikely). If he tries to leap forward somewhere in the Indian Ocean, it's too early so that John can jump all over the offensive and kill it (kind of like what he did to my Sumatra invasion in the last game that John and I played). Michael's best strategy is to pick and probe and prepare, avoiding a major offensive that can't be sustained this early in the game.


I like that idea. Since I am present in force it makes a bunch of since...

To answer the earlier Post, I think Michael was setting a trap for me by lurking at the edge of Mavis/Emily range near Timor. Looking for a chance to bushwhack a major force of mine coming into Koepang or heading the NW Aussieland. He has disappeared since I put two fish into Boise. We'll see if there is more here or not.


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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 3:14:03 PM   
John 3rd


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I have all the major oil centers.


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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/2/2015 3:30:13 PM   
Lecivius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful with the screenshots. We can see your bank account password.




\Phhttppp. My kid has more money in loose change than is in there

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 3:52:25 AM   
John 3rd


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Been continuing to think about this today.

The key to maximizing the Japanese position is bringing on a Fleet Engagement at a time and place of Japan's choosing. RIGHT? Sinking the merchants fleet is all well and good. Thrusting north or south or to Australia serves no purpose UNLESS IT BRINGS ON A FLEET ENGAGEMENT.

OK.

Michael has done something interesting. He has combined ALL Allied flattops into two massed Fleets.

1. One sits at the West Coast and has--at a minimum--Saratoga (now damaged), Yorktown, Hornet, and CVL King's Mountain.

2. On the NW Coast of Australia sits Enterprise, Lexington, 2 American CLV, 2 Allied CAV, HMS Hermes, and whatever else British Flattops are present now.

The question now revolves around, with the Fleets separate and unable to support each other, how do we CRIPPLE one or the other?

Thoughts:
1. Michael has already demonstrated a desire to use his CVs up in the Aleutians/Alaska. Would a SERIOUS attack there stand a chance of bringing him out? Doubtful but possible.

2. That Fleet near Aussieland HAS to refuel from somewhere. The answer MUST be Perth. Could Japan--somehow--sneak up on this area and launch a surprise attack? Seems to me the only real option. If one shows up with the ENTIRE Japanese carrier fleet, he will run. What might be done to create an opportunity for a fight?


This is not idle thinking. It is a real pondering of how to force that engagement in 1942 where Japan has a strong chance of a solid tactical, if not strategic victory.

To answer an earlier question. I do NOT play for Auto-Victory. That is an artificial construct. I am playing to WIN. WIN! W I N!!!

BANZAI!


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/3/2015 4:54:06 AM >


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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 4:20:26 AM   
Yaab


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

Los Angeles to Rangiroa (port maxes out a level 5), Rangiroa to Auckland (port maxes out at level 9), Auckland to Melbourne.


The long-legged AK's and TK's can reach Southern Oz via the "polar route" without a stop so you don't even need Tahiti. Now, they have to refuel for the trip back, which is a minor inefficiency but, as there are plenty of long haul TK's and unlimited fuel in the US it doesnt matter.



True, but I can employ my shortest-legged US tankers on LA-Rangiroa route without refuel.Medium tankers service Auckland-Rangiroa, and the biggest ones service Melbourne-Auckland.

It all depends how tankers operate in the game. I am playing against the AI with a self-imposed rule that fuel can only be hauled by TK/AO/YO. I need a route which is safe and doesn't tax escorts much.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 4:38:37 AM   
Sangeli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
The key to maximizing the Japanese position is bringing on a Fleet Engagement at a time and place of Japan's choosing. RIGHT? Sinking the merchants fleet is all well and good. Thrusting north or south or to Australia serves no purpose UNLESS IT BRINGS ON A FLEET ENGAGEMENT.

I have to say I am not a fan at all of this train of thought. You can't plan a strategy around forcing a fleet engagement. Or rather a good one. A well thought out strategy integrates army and navy assets as to support eachother in reaching a common goal. That isn't to say that you shouldn't actively pursue a fight as you are 100% correct that you should. But the IJA need a role in this strategy in some capacity.

I think you are underestimating the impact of putting a stranglehold on Australia. Australia is the only place in the Pacific theatre left where the Allies can really utilize LBA. That's where the Allied counterattack starts. But if you are able to really threaten and disrupt those convoys that's going to seriously hamper the Allies in 1943 and possibly push them into some ill-advised moves without LBA support. Also, I can't think of a better way to force the Allies into fighting then to threaten the lifeline to Australia. If you keep sinking convoys to Australia Michael only has 3 choices:

1. Stop sending convoys
2. Keep taking losses
3. Send in the Death star

Every option sounds pretty good to Japan I think.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 6:29:02 AM   
BattleMoose

 

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Just thinking out aloud here. If you really want to force a CV engagement, your opponent will need to think he can win it. He wouldn't go up against the whole KB knowingly. Maybe you can pursue two objectives, one very minorly. The minor objective can be assisted by a fleet that is "supposed" to look like half of the KB or something similiar. While your main objective will be supported by the majority of the KB. With luck, Michael might resist your main objective thinking he is going up against a much smaller CV fleet.

Personally I don't like this type of a strategy. I prefer the strategy outlined by Sangell previously,create a strategic context where Michael is coereced into fighting a battle that he really shouldn't. And if he doesn't fight, then that in and of itself would benefit Japan.

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RE: The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 2:54:44 PM   
John 3rd


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Don't think I was clear in my Post last night. While his Fleet is divided into there two big parts I need to try and draw him into battle with my WHOLE KB. This would be a certain victory.

Want to focus on bringing this about. All else follows...

Attack into Alaska and have a slight possibility of bringing out the West Coast portion.
Attack/Threaten Perth and face a much stronger probability of fighting the Western Fleet.

One of my ID that took Soerabaja just arrived and will move to Batavia in two days. It will be enough to finish off Batavia. When that happens, I have five ID available. Three of them are prepping for Geraldton and/or Albany. This will be a ground component. Need to get onto the NW Coast of Aussieland soon. Once his CV leave the area, I will use a Fast TF to grab Broome and then Port Hedlund for initial steps in the right direction...


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The Perils of Victory - 7/3/2015 11:01:12 PM   
John 3rd


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I think I developed a plan for trying to force a carrier action in mid-42. With the landings complete at Pearl Harbor I am now relying on LBA and the Battle Line to do the job. The carriers are essentially out of a job presently.

Michael will THINK that I have my CVs near Pearl to make sure he doesn't do anything risky or dangerous.

This creates, potentially, a perfect scenario for an old-fashioned bushwhack!

Next turn will see me form up all the CVs, CVLs, and BCs (7 CV, 5 CVL, and 6 BC). They shall head SE and be SEEN by the PBYs still flying out of PH. As soon as they are seen then we turn SW and head for Soerabaja. I shall make it LOOK like I am incredibly weak and make attempts to get ashore at Broome and other points of Aussieland. This SHOULD entice him to keep his Eastern CV Force nearby. That Force will be our TARGET!

I lured Michael once up in Alaska. Let us see if it can be done again... (EVIL LAUGH!)


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/4/2015 12:02:19 AM >


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Little bit of action... - 7/4/2015 1:42:05 PM   
John 3rd


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April 6, 1942

A Java Invasion Force stumbles onto a large group of HDML and sinks all 11 of them.





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April Update - 7/4/2015 2:06:24 PM   
John 3rd


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Combat Report
April 1-6, 1942
North Pacific


Thought a regional report might be a good idea. Everything has been so focused on Pearl Harbor, offensive choices, and drawing out the Allied CV Fleet that the bigger picture might have gotten lost.

North Pacific
Action here cooled off after the capture of Dora Harbor and Akutan. Michael has troops trapped at Dutch Harbor and is working to build-up Cold bay. A good-sized amount of Allied airpower is up here but is rarely used.

Strength:
1. Ground--Japan has one ID, two full strength Brigades up here as well as two SNLF Assault Brigades. The ID and several TK Reg sit at Adak waiting for orders. An Air Flotilla is landing at Adak presently to add some TT strength here. It will move forward to Umnak once that base expands its AF a bit more.

2. Air--Have about 70 Zeros, 27 Val, 27 Betty, and 24 Emily working out of this area.

3. Naval--Present strength is 5 CL and 12 DD. My CVE TF is about to reach the area. It might be used for LRCAP to cover the next landing.

Plans:
1. Dutch Harbor has just its beginning strength in it. I've bombarded several times and it is easily takeable. Killing off three American units holds some value.

2. Cold Bay shows nine units present. I know there is an Infantry Regiment and CD unit present as well as engineers and base forces.

3. Kodiak is serving as Michael's main base for both air and naval activity. Not much known here other then strong air units present.


The thinking here is to start a summer offensive that stair steps through the three bases listed above. Everything must be planned now so this will move at a slower pace. Want to make Michael divert forces up here and keep his eyes off of other things.

Am presently sending a second ID to reinforce this area and will then work to take Dutch Harbor and Cold Bay.





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/4/2015 3:07:05 PM >


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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 418
April Update - 7/4/2015 2:17:48 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
Combat Report
April 1942
Central and South Pacific


Central Pacific
CenPac has been covered extensively with Eastern Storm but I think it is a good idea to mention engineers and small units are working to develop the 'rear' bases presently: Midway, Wake, Marcus, the Marshalls, and Marianas all have digging and expansion work occurring. Garrisons are in place at Midway, Wake, and Marcus. Have troops and/or CD units presently headed for Christmas Isle and Tabitueau (Sp?).

South Pacific
Base development continues at Pago Pago and Savaii for the possibility of either advancing FROM here or keeping the Americans from capturing the base.

Have a set of bases in the Solomons (Lunga/Tulagi--Munda--Buin) building AF and Forts.

New Guinea is in good shape:
1. Port Moresby is held solidly and a CD units is presently unloading at Milne Bay.
2. Have just finished capturing all the islands in the Coral Sea. Plan to make one a Seaplane Base for early warning of Allied moves.
3. Lae--Wau are developing nicely for my main bases as well as Rabaul.

Not much air or naval down here at present.




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Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 419
RE: April Update - 7/4/2015 4:50:42 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline
Have guests arriving for BBQ. Will update later this afternoon.

Just sent our second turn back. Hope to do four today.


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Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

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(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 420
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