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Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 3:24:12 AM   
chaos45

 

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So decided to do some digging and also testing the game engine some- The issues is both of what I stated in my AAR

The game is first off giving the Germans way more replacements than historical, and secondly casualties are much to low for combat/attrition.

Total replacement manpower for Germany on hand from June-December 1941- only roughly 650k manpower- From doing test runs the game is giving the axis 910k manpower by end of december 1941.....so thats a free extra army of Germans right there they never had.

Im guessing the manpower total includes all Axis Allied as well- but highly doubt Romania/Hungary/Slovakia/Finland/italy generated 260k Replacements in the June-December 1941 time frame.

Secondly casualty rates are much to low compared to historical- by December 31st- Total casualties and sick for the German army- approx 1.2-1.3 million- even when you count replacements and returning wounded/sick the overall loss of frontline strength to the German army was approx 200-300k by December 31,1941.

Now this is just German losses the game includes- Italian, Romanian, Hungarian, Finnish, and Slovakian losses in the Axis totals. This is also no major catastrophes for the German army at all just normal combat operations/frontline attritional losses.

Romania Alone historically lost 120k Men in 1941.....

As the Germans lose even more men in January/February 1942- almost 400k more men lost in those 2 months alone according to the Germany Armies own paperwork. With virtually no replacements available except for returning wounded and new divisions being transferred east. As the German government didnt put the next Army training class into basic training until December when they realized they werent winning the war.

So between the Germans taking about 500k Fewer losses than historical and getting an extra 200k+ replacements that didnt exist thats how the German Army has 3.5M in March instead of the Historical 2.5M

Now how do we fix the game to make that doable? First and easiest fix is reduce German manpower replacement rates it would seem. Secondly both attrition and battle losses should increase.

Sorry even a good player cant generate a million more men than historical thats pure game mechanics causing those issues.

I know im beating a dead horse Im sure but the manpower reduction is an easy fix, the battle losses harder to find the right balance im sure.
Post #: 1
RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 6:31:18 AM   
Denniss

 

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In a .05 AI vs AI testgame (Axis at 110%) GER built 410k manpower (excluding reinforcements) by the first turn of 1942. FIN 20k, ITA 230k, ROM 75k, HUN 60k, SLO 13k, CZE 36k, POL 110k. Overall 950k manpower produced. Note the theater limits apply to all nations so not all manpower is available in-game.
In campaign games Axis minors except ITA have 100% available. Available CZE/POL manpower gets moved to GER pool at below 10%.

(in reply to chaos45)
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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 6:52:07 AM   
Blubel

 

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The Soviets take several million men less losses in 41 than historical. Honestly, I think it is more a problem of ahistorical play by both sides than the game engine. I had a game with hoooper, in which I made reckless attacks and he defended in hopeless situations. This did make for a great game and also produced more historical loss rates. I think in december we were by about 950k / 4.2m. As I understand it, the game does not count lightly wounded men which would be able to recover within a week as wounded, so I think it is possible to get to "realistic" casualties figures.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 7:44:55 AM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Denniss

In a .05 AI vs AI testgame (Axis at 110%) GER built 410k manpower (excluding reinforcements) by the first turn of 1942. FIN 20k, ITA 230k, ROM 75k, HUN 60k, SLO 13k, CZE 36k, POL 110k. Overall 950k manpower produced. Note the theater limits apply to all nations so not all manpower is available in-game.
In campaign games Axis minors except ITA have 100% available. Available CZE/POL manpower gets moved to GER pool at below 10%.

This matches with the OOB numbers, in chaos vs pelton game I think the German casualties were around 400-450K by the start of december, with around 400K replacements this explains why the German OOB stayed fairly constant at 3.4million.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 7:56:29 AM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Blubel

The Soviets take several million men less losses in 41 than historical. Honestly, I think it is more a problem of ahistorical play by both sides than the game engine. I had a game with hoooper, in which I made reckless attacks and he defended in hopeless situations. This did make for a great game and also produced more historical loss rates. I think in december we were by about 950k / 4.2m. As I understand it, the game does not count lightly wounded men which would be able to recover within a week as wounded, so I think it is possible to get to "realistic" casualties figures.

I think there is an element of truth to this but it is not a wholly adequate explanation. In their AAR both sides fought very hard, the soviets didn't retreat easily at all. There are some instances (lvov pocket and more generous .03 logistics) that allowed easier progress and might have reduced casualties, however it's not enough to fully account for the discrepancy, under heavy fighting both sides should be losing more men. Be interesting to see what extent the .05 rules redress the situation.

(in reply to Blubel)
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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 11:14:53 AM   
chaos45

 

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Well despite soviet losses being less than why are soviets ending up with a more historical OOB in 1942?

1942 start soviets have abit over 6M men most games where the soviets survive 1941 they end up with around 6M men. So it doesn't look or sound like a soviet play/game mechanics issue.

The German army is the side ending up with an extra 1M men in just about every game posted in AARs in .03/.04.


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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 11:41:53 AM   
Peltonx


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Bah bah bah for the 1000 time.

This is not a book or a movie.

You are not Stalin and I am not Hitler.

Once turn 1 starts you can throw out what you think you know.

The game clearly models replacements and attrition losses.

In the old war reports wounded include lightly wounded that return to the front.

Just because players choose to do things in a diffent way does not make things broken.

Your a newbie this has all been talked about more then once in the past 3 yrs and things tweaked closer and closer to historical as possible.

If players don't have good skills vs a highly skilled player things will not follow historical patterns

This is why I play 4-6 games under each patch as I get a true feel for the game.

You are simply not as skilled a rkimmi, smokendave and Brian which is why your OOB is 500,000 lower and I have taken less losses.
They know which areas of the front are more important and how and which units to attack.

You should have 450 AP banked before summer of 42 and you have ZERO which is a huge mistake.

The game is not broken you simply are new and learning.
Your a quick learner and I expect you will be one of the top 10
players very soon, but you simply don't understand the game as good as the other 3
players which is clear based on the data an not politics.


Turn 38 March 8th 1942

Pelton vs smokendave Russian OOB: 6,978,000
Pelton vs rkimmi Stavka OOB: 6,924,000
Pelton vs Chaos45 Stavka OOB: 6,449,000


< Message edited by Pelton -- 7/4/2015 12:50:16 PM >


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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 12:03:37 PM   
Blubel

 

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First of, I really like your AAR and think you are doing quite well, especially against Pelton, who is both the best Axis player, as well as probably the best one at gaming the system.
On the matter at hand: I would question that this is actually the case. Your game vs. Pelton and rkimmis game ended up at about same soviet OOB. Dave on the other hand had about 7.7m men at the beginning of the summer campaign against Pelton and M60 has already about 6,7m men in February 42 against Dave. One would have to study all recent AARs to be certain.
Also, the faster one retreats, the fewer manpower one generates in 41. This might actually lead to a similar situation. Moreover, if the Soviet player doesn't defend the bigger cities, he does not evacuate as much manpower, because there are two evacuation rolls, one when there is fighting in the hex and the other one, when the hex is captured.
Lastly, the Soviet player might get to few replacements in 42, but to many in 43-45. If you look at the 43 campaign, the Soviets have about 6.9m men. I don't know of any AAR, in which this is the case. Also, if one plays the campaign, the Soviet player gets so many replacements, that his OOB will soon increase. The 44 campaign on the other hand starts with about the same OOB size.

(in reply to chaos45)
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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 1:08:44 PM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Bah bah bah for the 1000 time.

This is not a book or a movie.

You are not Stalin and I am not Hitler.

Once turn 1 starts you can throw out what you think you know.

The game clearly models replacements and attrition losses.

In the old war reports wounded include lightly wounded that return to the front.

Just because players choose to do things in a diffent way does not make things broken.

Your a newbie this has all been talked about more then once in the past 3 yrs and things tweaked closer and closer to historical as possible.

If players don't have good skills vs a highly skilled player things will not follow historical patterns

This is why I play 4-6 games under each patch as I get a true feel for the game.

You are simply not as skilled a rkimmi, smokendave and Brian which is why your OOB is 500,000 lower and I have taken less losses.
They know which areas of the front are more important and how and which units to attack.

You should have 450 AP banked before summer of 42 and you have ZERO which is a huge mistake.

The game is not broken you simply are new and learning.
Your a quick learner and I expect you will be one of the top 10
players very soon, but you simply don't understand the game as good as the other 3
players which is clear based on the data an not politics.


Turn 38 March 8th 1942

Pelton vs smokendave Russian OOB: 6,978,000
Pelton vs rkimmi Stavka OOB: 6,924,000
Pelton vs Chaos45 Stavka OOB: 6,449,000


German casualties in 1941 (before blizzard) are all caused by attrition from fighting, there are no Stalingrad or blizzard type strategic reverses for the germans to confuse the situation.

From every AAR I've seen German casualties for this period are much lower than they were historically, If the result was based on player skill then it should vary above or below the actual total depending on what happens/skill etc, but it is always significantly below the real figure.

This consistent and significant deviation is clear evidence that casualties from fighting are too low (this applies for both sides), and is supported by the fact that the German OOB is always able to remain steady or increase, instead of decreasing like in reality.

I believe you wrote somewhere that the game relied too much on pockets instead of fighting to account for casualties and I agree with that assessment. I think with some tweaking the game can be made more realistic in this regard, it will be very interesting to see the effect of the changes in the upcoming patch in this regard.

(in reply to Peltonx)
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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 2:37:01 PM   
heliodorus04


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bob12

German casualties in 1941 (before blizzard) are all caused by attrition from fighting, there are no Stalingrad or blizzard type strategic reverses for the germans to confuse the situation.

From every AAR I've seen German casualties for this period are much lower than they were historically, If the result was based on player skill then it should vary above or below the actual total depending on what happens/skill etc, but it is always significantly below the real figure.

This consistent and significant deviation is clear evidence that casualties from fighting are too low (this applies for both sides), and is supported by the fact that the German OOB is always able to remain steady or increase, instead of decreasing like in reality.

I believe you wrote somewhere that the game relied too much on pockets instead of fighting to account for casualties and I agree with that assessment. I think with some tweaking the game can be made more realistic in this regard, it will be very interesting to see the effect of the changes in the upcoming patch in this regard.


Lvov pocket on Turn 1 in AGS area is a HUGE difference in German casualties.
GHC players use minimum force necessary to eliminate T1-T6 pockets, to the point of letting the Romanian army destroy the Lvov pocket over a couple months of time. Surrounded units are very weak in the vast majority of 1941 cases. These have a direct impact.

You seem fixated on getting agreement that the status quo is unacceptable. You're not going to get it. Other respectable minds feel very differently.

It's a simulation not a recreation.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 3:21:36 PM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bob12

German casualties in 1941 (before blizzard) are all caused by attrition from fighting, there are no Stalingrad or blizzard type strategic reverses for the germans to confuse the situation.

From every AAR I've seen German casualties for this period are much lower than they were historically, If the result was based on player skill then it should vary above or below the actual total depending on what happens/skill etc, but it is always significantly below the real figure.

This consistent and significant deviation is clear evidence that casualties from fighting are too low (this applies for both sides), and is supported by the fact that the German OOB is always able to remain steady or increase, instead of decreasing like in reality.

I believe you wrote somewhere that the game relied too much on pockets instead of fighting to account for casualties and I agree with that assessment. I think with some tweaking the game can be made more realistic in this regard, it will be very interesting to see the effect of the changes in the upcoming patch in this regard.


Lvov pocket on Turn 1 in AGS area is a HUGE difference in German casualties.
GHC players use minimum force necessary to eliminate T1-T6 pockets, to the point of letting the Romanian army destroy the Lvov pocket over a couple months of time. Surrounded units are very weak in the vast majority of 1941 cases. These have a direct impact.

You seem fixated on getting agreement that the status quo is unacceptable. You're not going to get it. Other respectable minds feel very differently.

It's a simulation not a recreation.

There is no fixation on consensus, I'm simply stating my opinion on his response based on my interpretation of the evidence, others will disagree but that's the point of the forum.

I agree the Lvov pocket (a whole topic of debate in itself I gather) has a big impact, but I don't think this is entirely sufficient to account for the Germans very consistently going into summer 1942 with 3.5M+ men.

(in reply to heliodorus04)
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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 3:54:43 PM   
chaos45

 

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Pelton show me the money on less losses for the Germans-----

I inflicted substantially more losses on you than smokindave and you never posted your losses vs Rkimmi.

Also look at M60s current game with normal blizzard even German OOB over 3.5M in March 1942.....

Game mechanic issue is at large for losses period and it substantially benefits the Axis side.

As to old war reports they recorded any injury resulting in the Soldier out of action for basically 1 month or more. Typically 50% of wounded returned to duty within 30-60 days the other 50% up to 12 months or became permanent losses. Also returned to duty can be very losely defined as that could mean a job/light duty back at the replacement unit in Germany not back at the frontline.




< Message edited by chaos45 -- 7/4/2015 5:06:18 PM >

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 4:19:54 PM   
HITMAN202


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Chaos, your game skills and insight are remarkable for a Noobie (no disrespect intended) and strong criticisms of WITE five years from now will rage. For all of the reasons above and more, endure the historical differences. You are a delightful addition to this particular wargamg community.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 4:46:58 PM   
morvael


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We will have to assess losses with the new patch as it can lead to increase for both sides, but more for the Soviets.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 5:27:13 PM   
Callistrid

 

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Higer casulties on both side, like +25-40, and will be done. On 1.08.05. the soviet transport capacity vs. german supply will be the next issue :)

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/4/2015 7:26:53 PM   
chaos45

 

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Was chatting with Pelton via email and this insight hit me lol...

The combat engine is more modeling a vicious day of fighting than a vicious week of fighting I think might be the issue. Each battle to the game engine is short sharp engagement and one sides wins/losses- maybe the fix is adding in a combat intensity modeling to the combat system...in other words if the battle resloves at low odds its a longer more drawn out bloody affair than an overwhelming attack and the losses are multiplied to both sides.

Thus if you barely win at 2:1 or fail your losses are hit with a multiplier since it most likely took you several days of hard fighting. would make those large battles over heavily fortified locations that are often only won with 2:1 or at best 3:1 odds alot more costly to the attackers and defenders both.

If you win with higher odds it was a quick short engagement with only a couple hundred losses or so as the other side broke and ran and take retreat attrition.

Hopefully the next patch increased losses for Axis as well....as thats the side ending up with a much larger OOB than historical by massive margins....your talking on average is 25%+ more germans available, the Soviet OOB seems to be much closer to historical- roughly 10% margin by early/mid 1942.



< Message edited by chaos45 -- 7/4/2015 8:35:12 PM >

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 2:34:26 AM   
chaos45

 

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So your saying a 1942 historical start = Soviets win by 1943 I doubt it.

Starting 1942 OOB is 2.5M Germans vs 6.1M Soviets. Which when you add Axis allies to the mix means 3.5M-4M vs 6.1M Soviets....yep the Germans actually have to use the allied armies to make up for manpower.

My point of contention on this whole issues is why are German losses ridiculously lower than historical yet Soviet OOBs remain only slightly larger? If say the German player is going to end up with an extra 1 million men then the average Soviet OOB in 1942 would have to be roughly 8M+ for any type of parity in combat value to historical. Then you run into issues of supply an such until Soviet industry gears up in 1943. Yep my OOB was alittle lower but some of that is also the way I guess im building my army as I never have armaments and it seems alot of stupid squad swaps require extra armaments so I have alot of guys on leave for some reason because they arent using the latest and greatest ToE lol.

IDK the perfect answer but it really would seem that higher casualties for both sides would fix it....Im guessing higher attacker losses period would be a big fix...as it would cause the Axis to burn more men in 41/42 to get closer to actual loss rates if they want to take alot of the Soviet union...and then when the Soviets counterattack/go over to the offensive in 1943 it would reduce their ability to keep a massive army as attacking would burn up the army over time.

Perfect example in me an Peltons game in march 1942- first off axis on the offensive in march is a joke when you look at their capabilities historically.....that aside....

We have been fighting a massive battle over voronezeh or however its spelled lol...Anyway Titanic amount of combat with basically 2-3 panzer armies slamming headlong into a full soviet front w/about 5 full armies+ defending a fortified river line and backed by 4 entire shock armies(16 strong Cav Corps+infantry divs). Over the so far two week struggle losses have maybe been 20-30k per side.......thats stupidly low for the amount of forces involved. So far over the 2 weeks of actual fighting im talking both sides threw 5+ attacks each on their turns with 3+ divisions/corps involved in each and every assault and the defender about as stong typically 2-3 divisions.....The losses should have been staggering and most likely debilitated both sides for some time....instead most the units involved took less than 10% losses and are basically fine for further combat. An lets not forget the thousands of aircraft involved from both sides...each combat 150+ aircraft from each side and bombing units each turn as well.

Having 6+ corps of Soviets w/armor support slamming into 2-3 German panzer divisions in full on drive mode should be a bloody bloody affair for both....end results ends up being like a couple thousand losses for the loser and a 1-2K losses for the winner.

As I have said the game treats combat like a bad day of fighting which is the issues as a turn is a week of fighting a deliberate assault takes most of a units movement thus even in movement percentages = more than 1 day of fighting. Maybe hasty attacks = 1 day fights and a different more bloody chart for deliberate assaults. IDK the answer just suggestions.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 3:18:59 AM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

So your saying a 1942 historical start = Soviets win by 1943 I doubt it.

Starting 1942 OOB is 2.5M Germans vs 6.1M Soviets. Which when you add Axis allies to the mix means 3.5M-4M vs 6.1M Soviets....yep the Germans actually have to use the allied armies to make up for manpower.

My point of contention on this whole issues is why are German losses ridiculously lower than historical yet Soviet OOBs remain only slightly larger? If say the German player is going to end up with an extra 1 million men then the average Soviet OOB in 1942 would have to be roughly 8M+ for any type of parity in combat value to historical. Then you run into issues of supply an such until Soviet industry gears up in 1943. Yep my OOB was alittle lower but some of that is also the way I guess im building my army as I never have armaments and it seems alot of stupid squad swaps require extra armaments so I have alot of guys on leave for some reason because they arent using the latest and greatest ToE lol.

IDK the perfect answer but it really would seem that higher casualties for both sides would fix it....Im guessing higher attacker losses period would be a big fix...as it would cause the Axis to burn more men in 41/42 to get closer to actual loss rates if they want to take alot of the Soviet union...and then when the Soviets counterattack/go over to the offensive in 1943 it would reduce their ability to keep a massive army as attacking would burn up the army over time.

Perfect example in me an Peltons game in march 1942- first off axis on the offensive in march is a joke when you look at their capabilities historically.....that aside....

We have been fighting a massive battle over voronezeh or however its spelled lol...Anyway Titanic amount of combat with basically 2-3 panzer armies slamming headlong into a full soviet front w/about 5 full armies+ defending a fortified river line and backed by 4 entire shock armies(16 strong Cav Corps+infantry divs). Over the so far two week struggle losses have maybe been 20-30k per side.......thats stupidly low for the amount of forces involved. So far over the 2 weeks of actual fighting im talking both sides threw 5+ attacks each on their turns with 3+ divisions/corps involved in each and every assault and the defender about as stong typically 2-3 divisions.....The losses should have been staggering and most likely debilitated both sides for some time....instead most the units involved took less than 10% losses and are basically fine for further combat. An lets not forget the thousands of aircraft involved from both sides...each combat 150+ aircraft from each side and bombing units each turn as well.

Having 6+ corps of Soviets w/armor support slamming into 2-3 German panzer divisions in full on drive mode should be a bloody bloody affair for both....end results ends up being like a couple thousand losses for the loser and a 1-2K losses for the winner.

As I have said the game treats combat like a bad day of fighting which is the issues as a turn is a week of fighting a deliberate assault takes most of a units movement thus even in movement percentages = more than 1 day of fighting. Maybe hasty attacks = 1 day fights and a different more bloody chart for deliberate assaults. IDK the answer just suggestions.

I do believe pelton himself stated at one point stated that when it comes to damaging the soviets in summer 42 the Germans in game are much more reliant on forming pockets than in reality, where most of the losses were simply caused by devastating attrition from combat and most german pocket attempts failed.

< Message edited by Bob12 -- 7/6/2015 4:19:34 AM >

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Post #: 18
RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 4:51:38 AM   
morvael


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IMHO the patch will adjust losses in proper direction, and the debate should be postponed until then. We will have to find out whether new level of losses will be OK or not enough yet.
Interestingly the bigger armies involved and longer period of time, the lower the percentage of losses. And this doesn't come from my head, but from col. Dupuy, who spent his life analyzing battles.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 5:21:05 AM   
Bob12

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

IMHO the patch will adjust losses in proper direction, and the debate should be postponed until then. We will have to find out whether new level of losses will be OK or not enough yet.


Fair enough.

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 12:45:28 PM   
chaos45

 

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Next patch it is then

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 5:55:19 PM   
rainman2015

 

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Morvael, what changes in the new patch will make losses higher?

Randy
:)

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RE: Casualties- dead horse? - 7/6/2015 8:12:07 PM   
morvael


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Reworked "too many attackers" penalty, which allows more attackers to fire in certain circumstances (good defensive terrain & forts, more defenders) and also allows defenders to fire more in similar circumstances (good defensive terrain & forts, more attackers). And "more" is men-based thus higher quality units (looking at you, Germany) benefit more than high count but low quality forces.

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