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Turn 78: 30 December 1944 – 5 January 194

 
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Turn 78: 30 December 1944 – 5 January 194 - 7/20/2015 9:38:11 PM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 78: 30 December 1944 – 5 January 1945

My luck with the weather ran out, return to snowstorms after three weeks of clear skies.



Being used to WiTE, this takes some getting used to. With the Soviets these weather conditions would be time to party and trample all over the German army (esp with the frozen rivers). Here deprived of my aircover its a time to rest and recover.

Supply network is as good as possible, really what matters now is taking and repairing Antwerp.



Very little actual fighting but managed to surround Brussels and Liege. Left all the tactical bombers resting (rebuild morale and limit fuel usage) and did no strategic bombing. Equally, if possible I tried not to move the armoured formations.



Basically, in terms of fuel and ammunition supply to the front line units I’d reached my limits. I was burning off far more than I could deliver so even if the weather hadn’t turned I’d have probably had to scale back the offensive.



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Post #: 181
Turn 79: 6-12 January 1945 - 7/22/2015 8:16:29 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 79: 6-12 January 1945

Weather still dominated by snowfall:



This really limits my airpower but I need to keep some sort of pressure on the Germans.

Supply situation, Brussels and Liege will fall this turn giving me more big depots close to the front, maybe able to encircle Antwerp (which in supply terms is a huge prize)



Leige and Brussels do fall, along with that pocket west of Marche.

Also complete a campaign to reach the Rhine around Belfort, I think I can force the Germans to keep a strong force down here with a minimal commitment for myself. In any case the rail connection at Strasbourg is now the critical focus on this sector.



In the north, in addition to clearing out the pockets, US 1 Army launches a limited offensive south of Aachen. I'd like to reach the open plains behind the Hurtgenwald so that in a clear turn I can really push to the Rhine.



Here's the final position, Antwerp is encircled and my special fort busting XX Corps is in position to attack next turn (it has almost all my very heavy artillery).



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Post #: 182
RE: Turn 79: 6-12 January 1945 - 7/22/2015 1:14:13 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Looks nice; I hope you get Antwerp next turn as you suggested. How is Stalin doing on the other side?

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Post #: 183
RE: Turn 79: 6-12 January 1945 - 7/22/2015 3:58:31 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Looks nice; I hope you get Antwerp next turn as you suggested. How is Stalin doing on the other side?


Aye Antwerp falls next turn, I cunningly left large supplies of Mort Subite where the defenders would find them. As a result they couldn't work out the difference between their hangovers and my heavy artillery so the city fell pretty easily.

Uncle Joe is back on the vodka , well something has meant no progress over there for quite a few turns (I think Dave transferred some units back to the EF box).

< Message edited by loki100 -- 7/22/2015 4:58:46 PM >

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Post #: 184
Turn 80: 13-19 January 1945 - 7/26/2015 11:08:11 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 80: 13-19 January 1945

At this stage of the game I'm checking the air weather chart as the very first thing I do. The difference between snowfall (as again this turn) and clear is dramatic in terms of the effectiveness of my airpower.



VP situation seems to have stabilised. I still think its unlikely I'll manage a draw but to be honest I made a mess of the Italian campaign so I can't really complain.



Supply situation. I'm doing ok as I am prioritising a small number of formations for fuel and ammunition. I think I now have a pretty good grasp of the way the on-map depot system and priorities inter-acts with the supply priority you create within your command chain.

Anyway, this turn, Antwerp should be all mine.



Yep.



XX Corps does what it is designed to do.

Elsewhere, some limited attacks, many of which failed. But I do disrupt the German defences north and south of Aachen. If I can, crossing the Rhine while it is frozen remains my priority goal.



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Post #: 185
RE: Turn 80: 13-19 January 1945 - 7/26/2015 6:12:03 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		I'm wondering how much longer the Germans can hold a decent line. I keep thinking they're about to crumble completely, but it never seems to happen.

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Post #: 186
RE: Turn 80: 13-19 January 1945 - 7/27/2015 7:36:58 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I'm wondering how much longer the Germans can hold a decent line. I keep thinking they're about to crumble completely, but it never seems to happen.


the problem with the allies is that you can't really overwhelm them as you can with the Soviets at this stage. But its a case of creating more and more crises, forcing the Germans to plug gaps. Even with reduced interdiction due to the weather, there is still quite a cost to be paid every time they need to redeploy.

so it is possible for the Germans to keep recreating a defense but each is that bit weaker and more vulnerable than the last.

also in 1945, German NM tumbles so the infantry become increasingly useless

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Post #: 187
Turn 81: 20-26 January 1945 - 7/27/2015 7:39:51 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 81: 20-26 January 1945

Snowfall ... very pretty and all that but I would prefer clear skies:



I've been mentioning the importance of managing supply. Here are two essentially identical units



Note that 2 Canadian has almost all the ammo it needs while 1 Canadian has about 60%.

1 Canadian was in a different corps (one with low supply priority) and you can see the impact on both supply and ammunition levels, and thus on the effective combat value.

The rule book states:

quote:

"a unit loses 1 percent for each 1 percent they are short of their ammunition needs. Next motorized units lose 2 percent for each 1 percent they are short of 50 percent of their fuel needs."


So I Canadian has lost about 40% of its notional combat power. Both have enough fuel so that part of the malus doesn't apply. But this is not enough to explain the full reasons for the variation in effective combat value.

Supply shortages also hit indirectly and has an impact on combat efficiency. 1 Canadian has more missing parts to its TOE as its been on a lower supply priority, so has weakened in that respect as well, note that it is much weaker in key parts such as rifle squads.

The wider gain for letting some units run down is I am mostly keeping my armour at near full strength. Do need to pull divisions out of the line to recover and tend to have the equivalent of at least one corps not committed at any stage. The result is being able to exert continuous pressure, even on turns when I don't gain very much.

On the ground, some small scale attacks on the Dutch-Belgian border and a frustrating set of attacks to the north of Aachen. I really mismanaged this as I could have forced the Germans to retreat away from that empty hex.



It then took 3 attacks to dislodge it due to reserve reactions (my idea of starting with an infantry attack on the original target was to use up the German reserves)



Anyway, with the gap finally made, created a large hole in the German defences.



In turn, then made more gains to the south of Aachen.




To try and disrupt the German defences, landed a couple of paratroop regiments well behind the front, I'm hoping this will force a general retreat around Bitburg.



I'm not sure that was such a good idea, but the potential losses are very limited.

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Post #: 188
Turn 82: 27 January – 2 February 1945 - 7/28/2015 7:13:29 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 82: 27 January – 2 February 1945

Snowfall continues, so no really effective use of airpower. I decided to set most of the airforce to rest so that it would be available when there are clear skies.



Supply situation, note that that nice huge black line at Antwerp.



On the ground, the Germans pulled out of Aachen, so most of that apparently impressive advance was uncontested. The fighting was limited to battles around Maastricht which is now cut off. That will add nicely to my supply network.



I now think I will be able to gain the east bank of the Rhine before the weather warms up. But that is dependent on a few clear weather turns when I can pound particular targets and generally plaster the area behind a planned attack with high levels of interdiction.

Denmark

I've had US 5 Army sat in UK ports since I withdrew it from the Med in late 1944. Originally it was targetting NE France in the hope of generating a pocket if the Germans tried to hold the Seine too long. I then had the idea of testing out the viability of invading Denmark instead.

My other idea was simply to commit it to the main fighting. Now I hold Antwerp I no longer need to fear a global supply shortage for my forces, merely the regular problem of supply delivery to key formations.



My gamble is that these units have been refitting in the UK for about 4 months, are at full strength and should be able to force their way ashore. Air support is coming from Bomber Command and US 8 Air.

I should have kept to my other (far better) idea.

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Post #: 189
RE: Turn 82: 27 January – 2 February 1945 - 7/28/2015 12:28:42 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		I assume (??) even in the best case you won't be able to break out of Denmark to the south with those guys. But it's cool to see a new front opened up.

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Post #: 190
RE: Turn 82: 27 January – 2 February 1945 - 7/28/2015 12:44:20 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I assume (??) even in the best case you won't be able to break out of Denmark to the south with those guys. But it's cool to see a new front opened up.


well I know that Dave is having to send more units east to play with Uncle Joe et al, so to create a decent plug on the Danish-German border would pull another 6-8 divisions away from the main fighting. Probably not much difference on the front lines but its another significant reduction of his ability to pre-prepare new defensive lines by leaving units to the rear to dig in.

Also the VPs for the Danish cities would be nice.

of course this masterplan depends on the initial landings not showing all the planning skills of a lemming when presented with a nice juicy cliff ...

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Post #: 191
RE: Turn 82: 27 January – 2 February 1945 - 7/28/2015 10:25:44 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

of course this masterplan depends on the initial landings not showing all the planning skills of a lemming when presented with a nice juicy cliff ...


Not an auspicious metaphor -- I hope your fate is better than that!

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Post #: 192
Turn 83: 3 – 9 February 1945 - 7/29/2015 7:34:15 AM   
loki100


Posts: 10920
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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 83: 3 – 9 February 1945

Ok, fans of suspense narratives may be disappointed, as despite all my subtle hints in the last post, the Danish gambit actually was a total disaster. I mean everyone wants to burn off 90 spare victory points for no advantage?



And a few losses, just to rub it in.



Oh, and a particularly jolly email from my opponent ...

Anyway, I decided nothing cheers up an allied player like dropping bombs. Just to help with this therapy, the weather turned clear, and I have a lot of well rested tactical bombers.



A lot ...


(I have stopped most Strategic Bombing – apart from 15 Air – and am using the 4 engined bombers for interdiction behind the lines).

This went a long way to cheering me up ... note I have actually bombed one German unit to 0-0 status.



The inital attack saw US 1 Army reach the Rhine but an attempt to take Cologne off the march failed:



As a bit more therapy, I decided to rout out that Pzr Division as I want to reach and cross the Rhine rather than accept the slowing of my movement due to its zone of control



Anyway, in the end I couldn't actually cross the Rhine, though I have control of a hex on the east bank. I've also redeployed the unused units of US 5 Army to the main front, the damaged ones are in the UK recovering. I've abandoned the successful landing at the north end of Jutland, as I really can't see the advantage to trying to hang on up there.



So lets see if my post-Danish therapy will see me over the Rhine next turn?

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Post #: 193
RE: Turn 83: 3 – 9 February 1945 - 7/29/2015 1:45:35 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		Too bad about Denmark. Live and learn. Good luck as you head toward the German heartland.

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Post #: 194
RE: Turn 83: 3 – 9 February 1945 - 7/29/2015 2:27:19 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
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From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		What happened exactly in Denmark? I assume the southernmost landing vs. that port was repulsed; landing on a fort is never a good idea, I bet that failed. What happened to the others? Weather? I wouldn't expect a ton of resistance on the beach.

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Post #: 195
RE: Turn 83: 3 – 9 February 1945 - 7/29/2015 3:46:08 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Too bad about Denmark. Live and learn. Good luck as you head toward the German heartland.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

What happened exactly in Denmark? I assume the southernmost landing vs. that port was repulsed; landing on a fort is never a good idea, I bet that failed. What happened to the others? Weather? I wouldn't expect a ton of resistance on the beach.


it was all an experiment, as you say the attack on the port was high risk. In a way the whole thing was an experiment - if you use very rested and well supplied troops can you do an invasion in poor weather and/or get away with a direct port attack. If I'd waited a turn (for cold skies) I meant have learnt more as at the least my bombing would have been more effective.

but I think all 3 landings failed so badly that the relative gain/loss for effective bombing wouldn't have rescued the invasion.

so I think that convinces me that you really can't do naval invasions in worse than light rain/light mud, which is handy for the wider planning of the war. In that case, I'd have been better letting 5 Army sit in the UK till my continental supply was ok and then add it to bring more pressure on the main front.

we're a few turns ahead and if I can redeploy, I have a chance of attacking around Frankfurt/Fulda which is actually quite a good way deep into the Reich. But I need lots more units to be able to have both a powerful spearhead and guard my flanks.

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Post #: 196
Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945 - 7/30/2015 7:25:04 AM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945

My weather obsession carries on, snow on the ground and cold skies means lots of bombing.

Here's the supply situation after last turn's gains. As you can see I'm retaining some of the rear depots (to support my airfields) but setting their priority to #1 so that the bulk of the supply goes as close to the front as I can.



Practically, I am really noticing the advantage of Antwerp. Units in my supply priority #3/#4 formations are now fairly well off if I leave them out of combat for a turn.

Bombing is aimed solely at helping me over the Rhine. Its hard to see but in there is a mix of multi-hex interdiction attacks and single hex unit attacks.



And we are over the Rhine ...



And Bonn was captured



So there we are, the gains around Eindhoven were where the Germans fell back. The critical bit is I have a stack of 3 armoured divisions (about 45cv) over the Rhine, given the interdiction levels around there, I don't think the Germans can muster the power to drive me back over the Rhine.




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Post #: 197
RE: Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945 - 7/30/2015 12:43:27 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
The critical bit is I have a stack of 3 armoured divisions (about 45cv) over the Rhine, given the interdiction levels around there, I don't think the Germans can muster the power to drive me back over the Rhine.



I hope you're right ... if so, you should be able to spread out from there and force him to fall back across the front. With the Rhine crossed in force that should (??) get rid of the last really strong defensive barrier.

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Post #: 198
RE: Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945 - 7/30/2015 4:27:31 PM   
Seminole


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quote:

but I think all 3 landings failed so badly that the relative gain/loss for effective bombing wouldn't have rescued the invasion.


Is your intel correct that some of those landings were unopposed, and yet the landings themselves failed because of the snow?

Contending with a Danish Gambit in my game as the Axis (July '44 now).
My opponent (S2Tanker) got at least two weeks unopposed as I didn't realize where the invasion had happened until he showed up almost at the German border!
That region offers some interesting possibilities for counter attack...

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Post #: 199
RE: Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945 - 7/30/2015 7:15:11 PM   
ivaldi

 

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Status: offline 		Very nice AAR.

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Post #: 200
RE: Turn 84: 10 February – 16 February 1945 - 7/30/2015 9:13:47 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
The critical bit is I have a stack of 3 armoured divisions (about 45cv) over the Rhine, given the interdiction levels around there, I don't think the Germans can muster the power to drive me back over the Rhine.



I hope you're right ... if so, you should be able to spread out from there and force him to fall back across the front. With the Rhine crossed in force that should (??) get rid of the last really strong defensive barrier.



He'd need around 90+cv and that would be a real challenge, not least they would have to wade through a couple of hexes of #3/#4 interdiction and it would undermine the rest of his defensive line.

This was my core goal for the winter campaign, so I'm pretty content I've played this phase fairly well (if we ignore Denmark that is)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole

quote:

but I think all 3 landings failed so badly that the relative gain/loss for effective bombing wouldn't have rescued the invasion.


Is your intel correct that some of those landings were unopposed, and yet the landings themselves failed because of the snow?

Contending with a Danish Gambit in my game as the Axis (July '44 now).
My opponent (S2Tanker) got at least two weeks unopposed as I didn't realize where the invasion had happened until he showed up almost at the German border!
That region offers some interesting possibilities for counter attack...


one thing I find a bit frustrating is that you can't see the detailed reports for one of your invasions, I guess as it happened in the German turn?

3 of the landings were contested, not least Dave was suspicious as to what I was up to and it was either there or NE of Amsterdam (and I wouldn't want to upset my mother in law by invading there). With hindsight, I think that the north end of Jutland offers potential to consider in another game. You can generate a few rail depots with careful selection, its going to be unopposed and the terrain allows some rapid exploitation.

so its a trick I'd try again, just better executed next time. I don't think its ideal for a primary invasion but late game to stretch the axis it could pay off

quote:

ORIGINAL: ivaldi

Very nice AAR.


thank you .. glad its useful (despite my errors and mistakes)


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Post #: 201
Turn 85: 17-23 February 1945 - 7/31/2015 7:21:06 AM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 85: 17-23 February 1945

Weather watch volume #85 ... cold skies

I'm actually starting to run out of planes. I've had losses at around 200-250 a turn for the last couple of turns (which I can cope with) but around 2,000 per turn damaged. At this stage those are a bigger concern as it wrecks the morale of my air units. Low morale units are just not very efficient at anything (apart from taking more losses), something that anyone who has played the Soviets in WiTE will have observed.

Even lowering the morale level at which I'm flying (from my usual 70 to 60), I only have about 60% of the sorties of a few turns ago.

Also the front line combat units are suffering a bit with fatigue and ammunition. So an attempt to cross the Rhine south of Cologne fails.



But I do manage to broaden my bridgehead to the north.



This was actually a frustrating turn, the result of pushing units hard over the last two turns was lower MP and CV values and I kept on finding I lacked the movement points to attack.

Still, my grasp on the east bank of the Rhine is secure. I've made more gains around Strasbourg and am slowly building up for a secondary offensive towards Frankfurt (this is where I am moving most of the 5 Army formations).






< Message edited by loki100 -- 7/31/2015 8:24:04 AM >

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Post #: 202
RE: Turn 85: 17-23 February 1945 - 7/31/2015 1:12:16 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		Not much time left ... in view of that, can you afford to take a one turn break, an operational pause, and let your men and equipment recover before pushing hard? Or do you have to go all out every turn now?

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Post #: 203
RE: Turn 85: 17-23 February 1945 - 7/31/2015 9:05:18 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Not much time left ... in view of that, can you afford to take a one turn break, an operational pause, and let your men and equipment recover before pushing hard? Or do you have to go all out every turn now?


I think its a constant trade off and one reason why playing the Allies is so interesting. There are turns when you might as well give everyone a weeks leave - one is coming up that was heavy rain and heavy mud. But with random weather you don't know when those will fall.

Unlike my AI game I'm being more rigorous about reserves, letting units rest and pulling them off the line. I think WiTW does an excellent job of capturing the 'hurry up and wait' mindset of a lot of military planning. I've just sent back a turn (about 4 ahead of the AAR) where I really gained a reward for being pretty methodical at letting units rest and refit.

But its hard when you know that bad weather eliminates my only real force multiplier so it is tempting to overdo it on the turns when you can operate without too many constraints.

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Post #: 204
Turn 86: 24 February – 2 March 1945 - 8/3/2015 7:29:06 AM   
loki100


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Status: offline 		Turn 86: 24 February – 2 March 1945

Weather watch – heavy rain/heavy mud. Yuck

Well that limits things but also gives my airforce a much needed rest. I've done some thinking about the high number of 'damaged' planes and one major problem is the level of German flak in this area. My solution from this point on was to make much more use of single hex air directives which limits the chance of planes bombing cities as part of a wider pattern (and taking heavy losses due to low altitude). Its not a perfect solution, but it does help a bit.

Here's the big map, Uncle Joe lumbers west every now and then. Also as you can probably see, the Germans have just pulled back in the west as a result of my gains last turn.



Since not much combat happened, seemed a good chance to review some metrics. The Germans carry on losing afvs (both losses and failure to produce replacements):



Their fuel store is also running down



East Front (not sure why this always shows as a single data point)



On the ground just one combat, but an important gain as it gives me a second bridgehead over the Rhine.



Other than following up the German retreat around Koblenz, not much else happened.

In terms of VP points, it is varying between no change and a small loss for me each turn. Still around -650 so no reason to think this will end with anything other than a deserved German marginal victory.

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Post #: 205
RE: Turn 86: 24 February – 2 March 1945 - 8/3/2015 1:40:50 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		Looking at the map, I see the Allied threat in Denmark has been contained.

Maybe you can offer a virgin tank to the weather gods and get a break next turn.

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Post #: 206
RE: Turn 86: 24 February – 2 March 1945 - 8/3/2015 6:04:01 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Looking at the map, I see the Allied threat in Denmark has been contained.

Maybe you can offer a virgin tank to the weather gods and get a break next turn.


yep, in my fantasy version of that map there is a green line somewhere near the Kiel canal and lots of German units forced to redeploy to contain it ... ah well

I just keep on pointing out to Dave that I am very reliant on him producing the weather I need to beat him with ... I'm sure he understands the importance

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Turn 87: 3-9 March 1945 - 8/4/2015 8:24:01 AM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		Turn 87: 3-9 March 1945

Weather watch: cold skies and snow (not sure how the snow arrived but I'm not complaining) ... so lets go back to bombing

The Dutch have decided to celebrate the German retreat by blowing things up



VP score, as usual for the turns when I do very little, its better than when I am active:



All the bombing is in support of the Rhine battles or at Strasbourg (where I am also trying to push for a bridgehead). Usual pattern of relatively few planes shot down (319) but a lot damaged (1981). Even being very careful about the shape of the bombing boxes, there is so much flak in the Ruhr that this seems to be unavoidable.

In view of the discussion in LiquidSky's AAR about the impact of differing air strategies, here's the air loss screen up to this turn:



Anyway, pretty decent interdiction where it matters



Supply net is looking healthy after the recent gains. Cologne now is critical, unless I actually capture the Ruhr, its the only rail bridge that will allow me to extend my depot network onto the east bank of the Rhine.



Attempt to force the Rhine near Strasbourg fails.



But at Cologne I managed to surround the city



I also start to make some gains towards Wiesbaden, well I do till the French decide not to really help out



Still between following up the German retreat in the Netherlands and gains at Cologne, a pretty good turn



The Cologne encirclement has weak spots but those are partially protected by high levels of interdiction. I think the Germans can break through but will pay a price for interdiction. Equally, as the fighting this turn was very localised I have a substantial armoured reserve that has been resting for the last 2-3 turns.

So the weather next turn could be very important.

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Post #: 208
RE: Turn 87: 3-9 March 1945 - 8/4/2015 1:21:59 PM   
jwolf

 

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Status: offline 		Good luck with Cologne. And the weather. How are the Germans getting any fuel for their tanks?

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Post #: 209
RE: Turn 87: 3-9 March 1945 - 8/4/2015 2:06:57 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Good luck with Cologne. And the weather. How are the Germans getting any fuel for their tanks?


I don't think they do have much fuel left, I've used the fuel filter a few times (realise its not very accurate) and the Pzrs are often orange/red. Also I am now seeing very few reserve reactions, some of this maybe interdiction but I wonder if he is short of movement points as well

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