With all the talk of Chinese hardware...

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With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 10:50:26 AM

thewood1

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This is what I have been awaiting the results of...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/china-said-to-plan-overhaul-of-military-as-xi-solidifies-power-ie043vht

While they announced over a year ago that they were once again reducing military districts, they also announced they were moving to a joint command for all armed forces. This is bigger than any piece of hardware. It signals that the government is serious about reform and not just using the anti-corruption campaign to clean out political opponents. There has been talk of a 10-20% reduction in ranks as well.

I have traveled and lived in China, in some pretty remote areas. The PLA has its fingers in everything. Hotels I lived in and restaurants I ate at were owned by PLA shell companies where the profits went into the local commanders pocket. It was like the old mob in the US. Every layer took a piece of the action. I am hoping that these reforms put an end to that distraction.

China can buy/build all the fancy new hardware they want, but until the PLA is truly brought under political control, its main focus will continue to be make senior officers rich.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 11:48:31 AM

Dysta

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You cannot make every single military personals to equip with the best weaponries and protections in the state. So the reform is more likely to reducing non-combatant redundancies to make governing the military operation easier, AKA a better grip of military authority.

As for the corruption, it's more likely the personnel aspect of proliferation comes with military funding, and it's a blamable waste. However, it's nothing to do with the misuse of budget which isn't spend into actual defense project and equipment. They still develop advance technology for the actual goal they designated as long as the government pour money into it, and they cannot demand more or less from them.

But I agree with political part, the lacking of regulation is truthfully painful for military advancement.

(in reply to thewood1)

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 1:03:15 PM

thewood1

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The biggest issue is siphoning of budget resources for private use. The last number I saw was the PLA has 40%-60% shrinkage in diesel fuel. That means for every 10 gal of fuel shipped, only 4-6 make it the actual machine/vehicle. And that is assuming the vehicle is being used for PLA business.

And the caste system of promotion makes it difficult for good officers to advance. Many of the best drop out to work for Western companies in China now. Some of that happens in every country to some extent, but in China, it is actually inhibiting effective deployments due to training issues.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 2:24:43 PM

Dysta

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It's hardly conclude a private smuggling and allergically fuel misuse could lead to the military impact. Like I said, lacks of regulation could hinder the military development, but it's still the actual output do the talking. If only 4-6 gal of fuel get to the army, then the govt would just pay for 10 gallon extra to make the army actually have 10 gals. Of course, the rest of the other 10 gals surely belongs to profiteers.

A better eyes to watch over the actual resources placement is the critical part the PLA must go through.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 2:48:51 PM

thewood1

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That is not how a centralized government works. It is allocated annulaly and might be adjust slightly quarterly. No one is going to officially report the fuel missing because people start asking questions about where it went. I ran a plant in Ming Han for a year. I know how the allocation system works in China. We were victims of it. I know several Chinese army officers from the late 1990s who talked about inability to train in tanks because all their fuel was sold off. I know it has gotten better. That is the whole point of the anti-corruption campaign that has been going on. It also why this central command structure is important. They need to undercut the regional feudal system that was part of the military regions. All the corruption stemmed from the regional structures.

Army and Air Force units lacked training because fuel and parts were ending up on the black/grey market. Several of the documents I posted last year showed that internal studies in the early 2000's confirmed it...hence the big deal about going to a central command structure with only four regions.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 3:09:49 PM

Dysta

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It could be much worse when no fuel or no training program get to the soldier, rather than just a handful of them. But as you mentioned, those could be inspected as well. It's unlikely get covered when seeing soldier slacking off due to the lacks of fuel.

Sure, talking such of thing happens in 90s is no surprise, since China is still slowly emerging economically, and even purchasing soviet weapons by low-end trading, and jet fuels are consuming both rapidly and wastefully from obsolete Farmers and Fantans, not even mentioning the training with 'new toys'. But the Taiwan Straits Missile Crisis in 1996 told me completely different story: invasion imminent, nobody would doubt the PLA will run out of fuel if they really launch the attack.

Pre-wartime may surely took most focus on weapon and fuel reserves, but in peace time is not.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 3:17:50 PM

thewood1

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Logistics to this day in China are a mess. In my old plant last year, our new press waited on the dock for nine months to get picked up and delivered. And it only happened when we hired the son of a local government planner to get a train over to pick it up. It has gotten better, but is still a mess. They keep short term fuel reserves within the bases, but I bet if you do a physical inventory annually like in the US, your would find half the fuel missing. Training logs get doctored so that it looks like they are flying more than they are. That is how they hide the fuel shortages. Then when a crisis hits, everyone is scrambling around to find fuel for patrols. It is finely tuned game that starts to fall apart if anyone asks questions or a crisis lasts more than a couple weeks.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 3:48:03 PM

Dysta

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Aye.

The powerful merchant may hire an army, but cannot officially purchase one. Sadly, in Chinese perspective, they cannot 'hire or buy an army' (meaning of technological and military embargos, and also under sub-isolation in global influence). If China had a chance they surely will get their hands of best weaponries, fuel and training included. For nearly 70 years of ruling by CCP, they could manage to get into 80s' of total military development nowadays, and overcome with disasters, a century of industrial lag, revolutions and embargos is still impressive, if not legendarily fast.

If any slower, or corruption reach into the very core of the power, then China would be the second Iraq for sure.

< Message edited by Dysta -- 9/3/2015 4:48:46 PM >

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 8:20:16 PM

Hongjian

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Definitely. A military organizational reform is direly needed. As rumoured, the 300.000 cut in the armed forces are mostly aimed at the huge PLA bureaucracy, and not so much its fighting force.
A unified command and the reduction of 7 Military Regions to only 4 will reduce quite a number of redundant (and inefficient/corrupt) service members in the bureaucracy.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/3/2015 11:20:32 PM

thewood1

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I see the Chinese military as at the same cultural turning point as the US military in the late 80's. Budgets increasing, enlistment stable, but going through some drastic organizational and technology changes. By the time the First Gulf War rolled around, it was a perfect dress rehearsal for seeing how it all worked in real life.

China has no long and painful Vietnam War to learn from and no Gulf War to test the concepts out on so it is all theoretical at this point.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/4/2015 11:09:09 AM

Dutchie999

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quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

China has no long and painful Vietnam War to learn from and no Gulf War to test the concepts out on so it is all theoretical at this point.

Maybe they will invade Vietnam too to get their experience

. Chinese-Vietnamese relations are not the best at the moment!

< Message edited by Dutchie999 -- 9/4/2015 12:09:50 PM >

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/4/2015 11:34:24 AM

thewood1

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They already tried that.

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RE: With all the talk of Chinese hardware... - 9/4/2015 12:25:00 PM

Dysta

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In conclusion: Chinese new weapons are actually non-threatening, because they never score any hit or kill since they never use them to real target.

Ironically, this is how they 'assure the peacefulness' by presenting their indigenous weaponries without using them, and achieve the same result. Of course, you may argue that US's top-notch military power can also 'assure the peacefulness' on the globe, Asia included.

But most of the people suggesting completely otherwise, thinking that making more new weapons means the next war will more likely inevitable.

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Post #: 13