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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/29/2015 6:45:12 PM

Jagdtiger14

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By Hendaye October 23 1940, you mean the Germans make it there at that date with the army?

I'm not really interested in what Hitler and the Nazi's decided to do...they chose, and that is history. We all know from history that political decisions in war are a bad idea. The Nazi's actual decided on plan to pursue the belligerent Brits post France was based on politics while they ignored able commanders' advise. The logical choice is to listen to those able non-political commanders and that is the direction I'm sure you would take as well. Lets assume Hitler is assassinated post France and an able commander acceptable to the Nazi party is appointed new leader (Rundstedt?).

Diplomacy can occur while the army marches.

Your number 3 is not at all obvious to able non-political commanders, and the idea that Hitler would even listen to Goering after Goering's failed Dunkirk operation is just crazy. If your air commander promised you something on a very important and critical mission and he embarrassingly failed at it, would you trust him a second time (even right after that failure) with a very big and important operation?...no you would not. You would have sacked him post Dunkirk.

The Germans hardly stood a chance at any kind of Sea Lion with no lift...sorry, but Dutch canal scows were not going to do it for Germany. Germany's only chance (assuming we are in command) would have been if they had captured those Brits at Dunkirk, got the US involved in diplomatic talks with the Brits for the return of those troops, including fair and free international monitored elections for the nations recently conquered (Poland Mosavian rump, Alsace Loraine from France with a 5 year withdrawl and some demilitarizing program). If the Brits reject the offer, Germany continues to go after their strategic possessions within Axis grasp (clearing and controlling the English Channel, and the Med strategy) with the above option remaining on the table.

What I would like to look at is what was realistically possible after June 25 '40 (ie...what would 'you' do) and what the British response could/would have been and how far the Axis could have taken it using the tools that were available to each side as the time table moves along. Try to divorce 20/20 hindsight by taking the advise of rational commanders comments and objections in real time to what actually happened.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/29/2015 7:14:19 PM

warspite1

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No, you asked where and when the meeting was.

I think the problem is, if reality is suspended too much it no longer becomes an interesting exercise that explores the outer limits (but still within the limitations of the personalities involved) but just an Axis wet dream.

So Germany defeats France and then:

- No Battle of Britain with none of the losses to the Luftwaffe that incurred.
- The Axis deciding to work together in an organised, thought out logical manner - so no half-arsed premature 'invasion' of Egypt.
- Spain joining Germany (whether by choice or forced choice - makes no difference).
- No half-arsed ridiculous invasions of Greece.

In the meantime what mistakes are the Commonwealth allowed to rectify?

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 9/29/2015 8:30:55 PM >

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/29/2015 7:49:09 PM

Jagdtiger14

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What mistakes did CW make post June 25'40? Can you give me a list?

I thought this discussion was about Spain, Franco, Gibraltar, and what that could/would have meant going on from there.

The mistakes you list:
1. Battle of Britain was argued against when it went beyond the English Channel...by valued commanders with tactical experience. I'm ok with a limited Battle of Britain that at most goes to the British shore line perhaps knocking out (daily?) the radar towers (even though the Germans didn't know what they were, but did know there was some kind of military significance to them).
2. I don't have a problem with Italy making their historical bone head moves, so long as they agree to lend Germany useful tools the Germans can use to good effect at the time they need it.
3. Franco being forced to make a decision asap is a no brainer and where I thought this discussion was headed.
4. Go ahead with the historical Greece invasion.

I agree with anyone that after the historical Battle of Britain, its pretty much over for Germany with the time/pilots/resources lost doing something suicidal and idiotic that clear minded commanders knew was a mistake. Germany was not ready for a 1941 Barbarossa...its amazing they did as well as they did. Forget Spain and Franco...too much lost time and resources, and the Med/Italy/Africa would eventually be lost without Gibraltar in Axis hands even if Rommel had taken Egypt. This outcome can be directly traced to the Battle of Britain. And what would the Battle of Britain result in if Germany had "won" it? Still no invasion without the proper lift...Battle of Britain/Sea Lion was lost 1. without long term prep, and 2. Allied troops evacuated from Dunkirk (plus other parts of France after Paris fell). So, if you want to include the historical Battle of Britain, I will agree with what ever negative German/positive CW outcome you want to get at.

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Post #: 33

RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:20:47 AM

warspite1

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quote:

What mistakes did CW make post June 25'40? Can you give me a list?

No - there was a smiley there.

quote:

I thought this discussion was about Spain, Franco, Gibraltar, and what that could/would have meant going on from there.

Yes it is. But in so doing I cannot see how its reasonable to expect Franco to accept Germans on Spanish soil - and that means invasion. But I simply don't see Hitler invading his fellow fascist for a project that he really has little interest in.

Look at it from Franco's point of view.

As said, the country is one %^&&*^% mess thanks to 3-years of civil war. His position is not exactly the strongest.

His 'friend' Hitler meets him to seek Spain's price for joining the war. Franco's response is not just about military hardware - Spain also needs little luxuries like food! Then there is the thorny issue of French Morocco.

So, having had the meeting, Hitler decides (quite reasonably) that Spain is too much trouble for what he gets back and leaves well alone - albeit with a promise by Franco to join the war when Spain is in a position to do so, and in the meantime will do whatever he can e.g. U-boat bases, Spanish Blue Division and resources.

So what happens in this alternative scenario? Hitler says 'to hell with that - I'm invading'.

quote:

Franco being forced to make a decision asap is a no brainer

The point has been made - and not just by me, what does any country do when threatened with invasion?, not only invaded but invaded by a friend? (shades of 1809.....) Franco meets Hitler as a friend and an equal and suddenly he gets threatened with invasion. This is anything but a no brainer. There is honour, even amongst thieves...

But....Suspending belief and assuming Hitler makes that decision:

With the army the Spanish have I have no idea how difficult the Spanish could make life in the Pyrenees mountains for the invaders, but the Germans are going to take losses - and use up time - and Gibraltar is a long way from the French border.....

As said, if the Germans invade Spain, Gibraltar is gone - the questions are only:

- How much time does it take?
- How much loss can the CW/Spanish inflict on the Germans in marching down the peninsula and attacking the rock?
- How much do the CW put into the defence - using airbases in Spanish Morocco?
- Do the Germans or Italians try and bring their fleets into play? Do the Germans get through? Does the appearance of the RM finally give Cunningham or Somerville the chance to smack Campioni into the next world without the Italians running away?

I will see if I can track down a Spanish OOB - but not hopeful.

Any other thoughts out there?

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 9/30/2015 7:42:31 AM >

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Post #: 34

RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 7:24:09 AM

Orm

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Is this a historical 'what if' discussion or a discussion about a strategy in MWIF?

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 12:45:29 PM

Klydon

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A couple of things to add to the conversation.

First, in historical terms, the Axis would have faced a lot of logistical issues in Africa even if Malta was taken. The issue is the port capacity available. According to a book I have, General von Thoma went to Africa after the Italians joined and did a study along with inspecting the Italian installations/troops. He came to the conclusion that with the logistical limits about the max that could be supported would be 4 panzer divisions and that force should be just big enough to get the job done against the CW. He insisted on using the highest quality of troops and that meant no Italians, which was not acceptable to the Italian government. In MWiF, the logistical limits are not really that closely reigned in, but just some back ground.

No Battle of Britain for the Luftwaffe (or at least a reduced version more over the coast and channel) would have been huge for the Axis. The early Luftwaffe was a heavy short puncher with a glass jaw. The Germans had over 2500 aircraft to start with and by the time it was done, they had lost almost 1900 planes along with the cream of their aircrew and pilots. Given German aircraft production during this time period, those losses were never made good and it was never really made good on the aircrew-pilot side either in terms of quality and quantity.

When the Germans invaded Russia, they had maybe 2700 aircraft committed to the eastern front. (So barely more than what was available for the Battle of Britain). By 5 July 1941, the Germans had suffered the loss of nearly 500 aircraft with another 300 damaged.

One can only imagine what another 1000 aircraft would have meant to the Eastern front along with having a sizeable reserve for employment elsewhere (say the Med).

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 3:29:24 PM

Centuur

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I agree on the analysis of Klydon regarding the German Luftwaffe. But there is another, not well known fact also. During the paradrops in the Netherlands, the Germans lost 50% of the Ju-52's they had at the time (mainly due to AA fire over the The Hague airfields).

This hampered the build up of the Fallschirmj�ger for almost a year due to aircraft shortages. Also, these losses might have been avoided if the German Luftwaffe command wasn't so stubborn again. They had already seen high losses of the Ju-52's in Norway before, so they should have learned to prevent this...

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 4:24:37 PM

Jagdtiger14

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Orm: Historical what if.

Klydon: I agree with everything you wrote. Thanks for the info, and what is the name of the book?

Warspite: Oh, ok on the smiley...I didn't think the Brits made many if any mistakes after the fall of France. Kinda hard to do anyway when you can read your opponents orders in real time.

I agree with you concerning Hitler, and I am divorcing Hitler from this discussion since we already know his decisions. If I'm the Fuhrer, and I hear Franco needs food...I got him. I'll be happy to help feed his people, and if its French Morocco he wants to clinch the deal, he's got that too! Spain with German help could probably defend it better than Vichy did anyway.

Please, if it could mean the difference between possibly winning or losing a war (or improving the chances for each), to hell with honor. F that! Are you telling me if you were faced with this decision, you would choose to give up going after Gibraltar because Franco was your political buddy and you are filled with honor about it? After everything Germany and Italy did to bring him to power (blood and treasure), Franco is complaining about this "tough" decision? I would have been tempted to pull out my pistol and shoot Franco in the head right then and there. Suspending belief for me would be the actual decision and outcome Hitler came to. Perhaps I'll chalk it up to my American "sensibilities", but Hitler was a psychopathic idiot, and this decision of his is another point proving that was true.

Tracking down the OOB and as you mention the capabilities of the Spanish armed forces at that time would be big. I will add that there are other factors to look at as well: Morale...the Germans coming fresh off their victory in France...and its not just any victory, but the one sought a quarter century prior and everything that would entail (1919, revenge, euphoria, etc...) vs the Spanish morale...tired and weak after the civil war, facing a powerful foe that just kicked the hell out of two powerful nations in just several weeks. Then there is also propaganda: Hey Spain...we just want to come through your country to take Gibraltar from Britain and eventually give it back to you...you know...that rock you've been complaining about not having since the 1700's? We don't want to fight you...just let us come down there and take it...we wont stay long after that...by the way...here is food and French Morocco.

I think for this discussion it would be more interesting to assume Franco says no to the Axis, and the Axis invade. You bring up good points on the questions if Germany invades. On the last one (naval) I think we should assume no naval activity by Germany or Italy since I think that would be suicidal and unnecessary...besides, Gibraltar is more valuable when you can base a real fleet there afterwards.

On your other points, I think the first one (time) is the most important. The second point (German losses), keep in mind the CW lost a lot of its equipment at Dunkirk. What did they escape with after they evacuated France after Paris fell?, and what does Wavell have in Egypt and would CW bring that out (maybe the tools and numbers they brought to Crete)? The third: I think the CW knows how critical this is and puts maximum effort into putting air power in Spanish Morocco...what ever airbase capacity Spain has there plus how much more capacity could be increased in the time it takes Germany to get to Gibraltar. I think CW would make this a big priority and try to work as fast on this as they could...but they cant send everything they have there...there is still the threat and air war over the English Channel. Also, do we assume CW attacks the French fleet on July 3, and if so, how pissed are the French at the CW and are they a threat to revenge attack the CW in Spanish Morocco from French Morocco?...Vichy can not be set up yet, unless there is an agreement to allow German forces and supply through the France part.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 5:17:56 PM

AlbertN

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Raeder was the one pushing for the Mediterranean policy, to help Italy; to seize Canaries or Azores (I think the latter) for a forward submarine base; and push through Egypt for the oil rigs of the Middle East.

In general Raeder's point was that Germany / Prussia always tried to avoid to have 2 fronts at once, and he was firmly against an invasion of Russia until the UK would have surrendered.

With insight both the Vichy Government and Franco did not gave much hopes to the Germans, Vichy defended itself - but also never truly reacted (two minor bombing raids with like 8 bombers each on Gibraltar after the attack of Dakar) to the many aggressions the Brits did, including landgrabs (Syria for example.
But Hitler sought the riches of Ukraine - and his burning desire was to defeat the communism; a political movement he had to quell down in Germany during his ascent to power.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:20:24 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

A couple of things to add to the conversation.

First, in historical terms, the Axis would have faced a lot of logistical issues in Africa even if Malta was taken. The issue is the port capacity available. According to a book I have, General von Thoma went to Africa after the Italians joined and did a study along with inspecting the Italian installations/troops. He came to the conclusion that with the logistical limits about the max that could be supported would be 4 panzer divisions and that force should be just big enough to get the job done against the CW. He insisted on using the highest quality of troops and that meant no Italians, which was not acceptable to the Italian government. In MWiF, the logistical limits are not really that closely reigned in, but just some back ground.

warspite1

Yes. The problems of the Germans were twofold - Egypt was of secondary importance and Rommel wouldn't obey orders. He suffered losses the Germans could not afford to replace - and even if they could AND build up his fighting strength - supplies for those units was always the limiting factor.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:20:56 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

A couple of things to add to the conversation.

First, in historical terms, the Axis would have faced a lot of logistical issues in Africa even if Malta was taken. The issue is the port capacity available. According to a book I have, General von Thoma went to Africa after the Italians joined and did a study along with inspecting the Italian installations/troops. He came to the conclusion that with the logistical limits about the max that could be supported would be 4 panzer divisions and that force should be just big enough to get the job done against the CW. He insisted on using the highest quality of troops and that meant no Italians, which was not acceptable to the Italian government. In MWiF, the logistical limits are not really that closely reigned in, but just some back ground.

warspite1

Yes. The problems of the Germans were twofold - Egypt was of secondary importance and Rommel wouldn't obey orders. He suffered losses the Germans could not afford to replace - and even if they could AND build up his fighting strength - supplies for those units was always the limiting factor.

warspite1

Something to factor into any invasion of Malta.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:24:13 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cohen

......to the many aggressions the Brits did, including landgrabs (Syria for example.

warspite1

You wouldn't say that the Vichy authorities allowing the Italian and German airforce to use Syria as a base to attack CW units was a reasonable excuse to invade?

Syria was not a CW land grab.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:30:41 PM

Jagdtiger14

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I don't know if I would put Spain and Vichy outlook on Germany quite like that. Vichy was never really into the Germans for obvious reasons. Spain was highly influenced by Canaris...which is the reason Franco had that view...without Canaris, who knows what might have happened.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 6:49:42 PM

Jagdtiger14

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That whole CW campaign in Iraq and Syria was very interesting...too bad info was withheld on some of the actual fighting and its not been released (or lost).

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 7:29:59 PM

warspite1

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quote:

and if its French Morocco he wants to clinch the deal, he's got that too! Spain with German help could probably defend it better than Vichy did anyway.

But that means a) weeing in Petain�s cheerios. That is going to potentially influence a lot if not all Vichy colonies to defect to the Free French. b) Why do you say defend better than Vichy? The whole point is Germany has not got the troops available to be garrisoning everywhere. They would want Spain defending her own empire.

quote:

Please, if it could mean the difference between possibly winning or losing a war (or improving the chances for each), to hell with honor.

But again, this is hindsight. To Hitler in 1940, a southern strategy was not necessarily a war winning one. Taking out the UK? Now that is a war winning strategy. And if you are travelling from New York to Los Angeles, why fly via Buenos Aires?

quote:

F that! Are you telling me if you were faced with this decision, you would choose to give up going after Gibraltar because Franco was your political buddy and you are filled with honor about it?

Yes, a) because as said above, it would not have been so readily apparent that this was the difference between winning and losing the war and b) EVEN Hitler � yes EVEN Hitler proved that he could pay a debt of gratitude. After Mussolini allowed Hitler to bag Austria Hitler swore he would never ever forget Il Duce. Even after everything that the preposterous windbag did to try and lose the war, Hitler was true to his word, even rescuing him from his mountain prison in 1943.

Don�t get me wrong, if Franco or Mussolini was getting in the way of Lebensraum then that would be different. But not the Mediterranean � which didn�t feature highly on Hitler�s radar.

quote:

Also, do we assume CW attacks the French fleet on July 3, and if so, how pissed are the French at the CW and are they a threat to revenge attack the CW in Spanish Morocco from French Morocco?...Vichy can not be set up yet, unless there is an agreement to allow German forces and supply through the France part.

Interesting. No idea how feasible it is for the Germans to go through the unoccupied zone i.e. down the west coast, but even if possible, presumably they would need to attack from all along the border i.e. within Vichy. Does that effectively make Vichy a member of the Axis?....

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 8:02:38 PM

Jagdtiger14

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I never studied the particulars of how Vichy was set up and how those negotiations went...seems like it happened fairly quickly? The events of July 3 I think would play into the hands of Germany's negotiations to have access along the entire Spanish border (necessary in my opinion) until the operation is completed. Perhaps even to goad the French in Morocco/Algeria to attack into Spanish Morocco...this could be a good test for Germany to see if the Vichy forces and spirit are enough to work with and how reliable they might be...on the other hand, CW might just slap Vichy and take all of Morocco and perhaps Algeria.

As for Petain and weeing in his Cheerios, other than North Africa and Syria there isn't much value. Spain would need some tools and advisors (not whole units)...and I think they would/could do a better job than Vichy...besides, powerful Axis forces would be in Gibraltar and would have to be accounted for if a Morocco "Operation Torch" would be attempted in 1942.

That's why I put in parenthesis (or improving the chances for each)...I'm not convinced taking Gibraltar would win the war for the Axis, but it sure would increase their staying power and give them opportunities in other theaters. As CW possessions and strategic positions fall like dominos, diplomatic efforts by a reasonable leader (not Hitler) might be able to end the on-going Anglo-German conflict. Which in my opinion is the primary objective of all this.

The debt of gratitude in this case was Franco's to pay to the Axis.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 8:02:51 PM

warspite1

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Does anyone know how to get this thread moved from the War Room to the General Section below?

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RE: The Italian Spear - 9/30/2015 8:22:34 PM

warspite1

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quote:

Perhaps even to goad the French in Morocco/Algeria to attack into Spanish Morocco.

This is another area that � in my opinion - goes beyond what I think is feasible given what we know. Unless there is a coup and Petain gets ousted by, for example, Pierre Laval, why do you believe that the Vichy French are going to become a full ally of Germany � for that is what they would be?

quote:

CW might just slap Vichy and take all of Morocco and perhaps Algeria

With what? They need to reinforce Egypt, possibly Malta, definitely Gibraltar and still keep some troops in the UK. They do not have the forces for all this - remember we are talking a month or so after Dunkirk in your scenario.

quote:

other than North Africa and Syria there isn't much value.

Quite the contrary. Algeria and Tunisia turning Free French is going to completely undo any positive the Germans have just received for being in a position to take out Gibraltar. Will the French fleet sail from Toulon in support of De Gaulle?

Furthermore, distractions such as Madagascar or Syria do not happen either, saving more CW losses. There was no love of the British in France � but there was less for the Germans � especially if an unlikeable opportunist like Laval or maybe even Darlan takes over from their 'saviour' Petain.

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 9/30/2015 9:24:13 PM >

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/1/2015 2:19:10 AM

Jagdtiger14

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I'm not suggesting Vichy becomes anything more than what they were...what I am suggesting is that the Germans might suggest to Vichy that they hit something CW in Spanish Morocco once the march to Gibraltar is on...not saying they would do it, but they did hit Gibraltar a couple of times.

I know about CW being stretched, and that's why I'm ready to hear how they might assist the Spanish delay the Germans. It might be too early to discus this aspect since we need more info...what did CW get out of France after Paris fell?...what were the forces sent to Crete(probably all the CW could safely remove from Egypt/N. Africa)...and would they have sent those forces/equipment into Spain/Spanish Morocco? How much airpower from UK? Probably all CV's for sure? In my opinion the only thing CW could probably do for Spain in Spain in front of the Germans is lay minefields, destroy RR tracks, and other infrastructure...if Franco is ok with that, which he might not be. I don't think the CW sends in units. CW would probably test the German air cover, and test any supply lines behind the main German body with spec ops.

If I'm the CW, I would not reinforce Malta. Perhaps put units in front of Gibraltar to delay for enough time to destroy in case the Germans are moving too quickly south...but engaging the Germans would be suicidal and exactly what the Germans would want to have happen. In the best case scenario for CW, they evacuate a completely destroyed (facility wise) and booby trapped/mined land and sea Gibraltar...harass the Axis from Spanish Morocco for as long as they can hold out from there which could be for a long while.

If you read again what I wrote (could be the way you read my American English), but I meant that North Africa and Syria are the most important and valuable parts of Vichy. As for Madagascar, that is another discussion perhaps, but I never understood why the Japs didn't go into the Indian Ocean with more vigor (even in 1942 with the Gargoyle's fleet). Imagine if they could have taken over Madagascar like they did FIC in Summer of '40.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/1/2015 3:21:29 AM

Braig

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Check You Tube for series called "The Road to War". It's pretty well done and discusses Italy's problem fairly thoroughly for the time allotted.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/1/2015 5:26:58 AM

warspite1

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quote:

I'm not suggesting Vichy becomes anything more than what they were...what I am suggesting is that the Germans might suggest to Vichy that they hit something CW in Spanish Morocco once the march to Gibraltar is on...not saying they would do it, but they did hit Gibraltar a couple of times

There is a difference between a retaliatory airstrike on Gibraltar post Operation Catapult, and what you have suggested.

Until June 1940 Spain is neutral. She announces non-belligerency but, in your scenario, that is not enough for Adolf who declares war on Spain in order to get to Gibraltar. Spain is now effectively on the Allies side. To invade, Vichy France has to let German troops through the country and invade Spain from her sovereign soil. Whilst this is happening you are suggesting that Vichy either attacks �into Spanish Morocco� or attacks CW units that are based in Spanish Morocco for the purposes of defending her ally. Any such move would of course only aid Germany in her move through Spain.

I don�t see how world opinion (and of course the US who had been doing its own behind the scenes 'stuff' to keep Vichy and Spain onside) sees this any other way than Vichy is now firmly in the Axis camp.

quote:

but I meant that North Africa and Syria are the most important and valuable parts of Vichy.

No misunderstanding. In your other scenario the Vichy regime simply �gives� French Morocco to the Spanish because Hitler orders it. Okay�. What do the French in Morocco think about that? What do the French in Algeria and Tunisia think about that? Hell, what does Mussolini � who is already mighty pissed that he wasn�t given Corsica, Nice and Tunisia as part of the peace deal with France � think about this? He is denied while Franco clicks his fingers and gets given Morocco.....

All this is without what Petain thinks. The whole point of Vichy � the very heart of what Vichy was created for is now being destroyed. Vichy was created as the �best way� to save France and her empire. If her empire is going to be carved up, what was the point? Even Petain couldn�t stand by and see this happen because if it does � his whole game plan is for nothing and he is proven not to have been France�s saviour � but the man who presided over the carve up of the French Empire.

quote:

As for Madagascar, that is another discussion perhaps, but I never understood why the Japs didn't go into the Indian Ocean with more vigor

How many reasons do you want?

The Japanese only had so many troops, so many naval assets. They could not do everything. Remember too that from a political point of view the army were not going to provide troops to make a navy operation look good. The distance between Madagascar and the nearest Japanese base would make re-supply challenging to say the least. With the assets available to the IJN they could not be everywhere at once � and destruction of the American carriers was still top priority � but then came Midway and all bets were off�..

quote:

Imagine if they could have taken over Madagascar like they did FIC in Summer of '40.

I suspect that the French would have at least put up a fight � and would also have thought that the British would turn a blind eye and allow the French to garrison and supply the island from West African ports and even Vichy itself. Hitler would not have been happy with his Japanese friends. Would the British allow the fleet to sortie from Toulon? What an interesting scenario that would paint!

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 10/1/2015 6:46:08 AM >

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Post #: 51

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/1/2015 6:45:55 AM

Jagdtiger14

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Ok, maybe we didn't discus the creation of Vichy and when and how that would happen. As it was historically, I don't think there was ever any actual peace treaty, but only an armistice. The French did not like the terms, but were told they had no choice considering the military situation they were in...so Germany was dictating the terms with Hitler trying to not be too harsh because he wanted this to work out (concerned about French fleet and continued French fighting from north Africa/Med). July 3 kinda took the French fleet issue off the table of concern. I think it was some time in mid-July that the Vichy government was actually formed. I highly doubt the new Vichy government would have objected to Germany making use of the entire French/Spanish border. The actual "Zone Libre" was a creation of Germany, not a demand of Vichy, so it could have taken a different shape to reflect Germany's needs vs Spain/Gibraltar (rail and road access to the entire border). I'm sure there was a rail/road line from Bordeaux to Perpignan, or from Bordeaux to Bayonne to Perpignan.

Germany's suggestion they take action vs Spanish Morocco is only that...a suggestion, not a demand. We can drop it other than to say that perhaps CW should be somewhat concerned that Vichy could and might do something concerning revenge for the actions of July 3 and should establish a defense for that possibility in Spanish Morocco when they get there...we can say it never happens. Vichy was still making a revenge attacks on Gibraltar in September.

As for French Morocco being given to the Spanish in exchange for Spain joining the Axis...that is worth far more than what ever benefit Vichy can give the Axis. I would be happy to make that trade. In this discussion however, I already conceded that Germany would go to war with Spain since its more interesting. As for Mussolini, he has already accepted the fact he is a junior partner to Germany and will do Germany's bidding...with maybe verbal complaints and the occasional temper tantrum (Greece). The Mussolini of 1938 was no longer the Mussolini of 1934...I'm referring to Austria...you can see a big difference. He can be secretly promised N. Africa when the time comes...ala...London Treaty 1915.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/1/2015 8:12:03 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Vichy was still making a revenge attacks on Gibraltar in September.

warspite1

You make it sound like the attacks were regular. The French made a couple of desultory attacks following Catapult, and then made a few more - larger raids but little more successful - in response to Menace.

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Post #: 53

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 3:28:48 AM

brian brian

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German war aims, and the planning for them, were a mess. I think Hitler had a single goal - carving out a new German Empire in one direction: East. The West putting up roadblocks to that idea flummoxed him, though not so much that he didn't mind fighting the war on the western front one more time.

But then the collapse of France seemed to catch Hitler, and OKH and OKW by surprise. OKH even demobilized some army divisions in the summer of 1940 I believe. It was also widely expected that a rapprochement could be settled with the English somehow, especially considering how hated Communists were.

I don't think any strategy except a massive build-up in Poland was ever really considered seriously by Hitler OKH, and OKW never seemed to generate much pull on anything. It always seems to me that every German decision in the Mediterranean theater was them reacting to events initiated by others - Mussolini's attacks, CW responses, the coup in Yugoslavia.

But they did commit one major asset to the Med - Fliegerkorps X - and that would have been nice to have for Barbarossa also.

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Post #: 54

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 6:05:02 AM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I agree on the analysis of Klydon regarding the German Luftwaffe. But there is another, not well known fact also. During the paradrops in the Netherlands, the Germans lost 50% of the Ju-52's they had at the time (mainly due to AA fire over the The Hague airfields).

This hampered the build up of the Fallschirmj�ger for almost a year due to aircraft shortages. Also, these losses might have been avoided if the German Luftwaffe command wasn't so stubborn again. They had already seen high losses of the Ju-52's in Norway before, so they should have learned to prevent this...

warspite1

I just realised I replied to the wrong post in Post 41

. Post 41 doesn't therefore make any sense. Glad to see people are reading this tripe

Anyway, as it should have been

quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I agree on the analysis of Klydon regarding the German Luftwaffe. But there is another, not well known fact also. During the paradrops in the Netherlands, the Germans lost 50% of the Ju-52's they had at the time (mainly due to AA fire over the The Hague airfields).

This hampered the build up of the Fallschirmj�ger for almost a year due to aircraft shortages. Also, these losses might have been avoided if the German Luftwaffe command wasn't so stubborn again. They had already seen high losses of the Ju-52's in Norway before, so they should have learned to prevent this...

warspite1

Something to factor into any invasion of Malta.

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Post #: 55

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 6:06:27 AM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

That whole CW campaign in Iraq and Syria was very interesting...too bad info was withheld on some of the actual fighting and its not been released (or lost).

warspite1

Out of interest what does that refer to?

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Post #: 56

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 5:31:09 PM

Jagdtiger14

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It had something to do with not wanting reports of the fighting there to get out and effect the rest of Vichy and/or world opinion.

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 5:33:50 PM

Jagdtiger14

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Here it is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria%E2%80%93Lebanon_Campaign

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Post #: 58

RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 5:54:00 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Here it is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria%E2%80%93Lebanon_Campaign

warspite1

Okay so you mean released at the time - that's good because I have recently been reading about the war in Syria!

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RE: The Italian Spear - 10/2/2015 5:59:47 PM

Centuur

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I have always found this a somewhat strange campaign, if you look at it from a political point of view.

Here we have Vichy French soldiers fighting against the "rebel Free French" and what happened in Metropolitan Vichy France? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. No propaganda, no reaction, no diplomacy, nothing...

It shows really how disinterested the Germans were, concerning the war in the Med. They didn't even see the opportunity this gave them...

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