IdahoNYer
Posts: 2616
Joined: 9/6/2009 From: NYer living in Boise, ID Status: offline
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Jul 42 Summary Jul was definitely a mixed month. On the positive side, the Santa Cruz Islands were secured, a number of IJA units destroyed west of Normanton, and the IJA’s 18th Div pushed back to Akyab with heavy losses. On the debit side, the US Navy was decisively defeated off Attu, losing BBs at a 4-1 ratio, and the hammer fell on the last day of the month at Port Hedland. Still, I think this is still a month of transition - I think the time of Japanese offense has indeed ended. Port Hedland could be the last successful offensive -other than China of course. Not that I expect a full transition to the defensive, but any other serious attack I think I can credibly contest (fingers crossed as I say that). Time will tell of course. As for Allied ambitions, the only major offensive is going to be Attu for the next 30 days, likely longer. I don’t have the resources for an offensive - not to mention the KB is still intact. With luck, L_S_T will try something ambitious that will cost him - but for the most part, it’s time for the Allied cause to gather resources - begin to gain airframes to start challenging the Japanese in the air more aggressively as 1942 progresses toward 1943. Not there yet, but gaining strength every day - and the primary goal will be to preserve that strength, not risking capital ships or excessive air loss. With luck, L_S_T will give me the breathing space to keep things relatively quiet for a while. Naval losses for the month were rough, IJN reported losses for the month were a BB, CA, 4DD and 2SS as compared to the Allies losing a 4BB, CL, 4DD and 11 PTs. Not a good month for the Navy. Air losses stay in the Allies favor, 364 for Jpn to 309 Allied. Screenshot shows Allied Forces disposition - Notes: 1)Ships are in service, not under refit or stood down. 2) a/c shown are combat available, not trainers or deployed on CVs. 3) CENPAC subs are those against IJN shipping, other Theater subs shown are “in close” for defense of that Theater. 4) En are Construction or Port Maint Bns. I decided to add AR as armor or recce units, and BF as baseforces or basegroups. INTEL: I truthfully think other than the ongoing Port Hedland operation, I won’t see another major amphib assault. I could be wrong - Carnarvon or Exmouth come to mind, but if he was landing on NE OZ, Ceylon, or India, I think he would have done so by now. I do think he’ll try and seize Tennant Creek over land, and of course continued pressure on China from all sides. The KB has been quiet - I’m surprised he hasn’t done more raiding, I still think having the KB hit Noumea or Luganville or some other busy port area is a good possibility. SUBWAR: With the exception of putting a fish that actually exploded into CV Zuikaku, subs continue to disappoint. Will continue to keep them at sea and focus more on shipping lanes. Have diverted a number of subs to the west of Attu, and will continue those boats there until Attu is taken. Will also maintain a number of boats in support of CVs off Carnarvon and in the New Hebrides/Solomon areas at the expense of hitting shipping routes. Japanese subs continue to be a nuisance, despite increased air ASW capabilities. While I continue to aggressively hunt down IJN subs that are spotted, surface escorts remain at a premium, and I’m reluctant to devote DDs to convoy escort work. Lastly, with L_S_T effectively using AMCs as raiders, major convoys (read troop and tanker) will require not only ASW protection, but at a minimum of surface protection - either an old CL or AMC. West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Pretty much up to date on ship refits across the board - catching some odd merchants and tankers that were on convoy, but for the most part - upgrades are current. Of capital ships, only Lexington did not get her scheduled upgrade, she’ll wait for the 10/42 upgrades - which will sideline pretty much the entire fleet over a period of a month or so. Pilot pools look good across the board, although with the bomber squadrons going from 8 to 12 planes in August, I’ll be short bomber pilots again. I’m still short planes in any case, and will be for the next few months. NOPAC. Losing 4 BBs at Attu has put the breaks on wrapping up the Aleutians early with minimal forces. Now, NOPAC will be the focus of Pacific Operations in August, including committing two carriers to support the invasion of Attu - which looks to have at least an SNLF defending it. It’s a good place to attack (assuming the KB isn’t committed) as it’s an isolated Japanese outpost, difficult for L_S_T to maintain an effective presence. Just can’t afford another battleship quaqmire…. CENPAC. Once Attu is secured, will likely focus on Baker Is, but that is more likely in Sep at the earliest. Don’t expect any enemy activity in CENPAC either. SOPAC. Goal in SOPAC in the next 30-60 days is to hold and expand bases at current gains. Bring Luganville on line to support B-17 raids on Tulagi and establish Ndeni as a forward air base. Last goal here is to establish enough LBA to provide deterrent against a raid by the KB - that is still a big concern. SWPAC. With the IJA force at Normanton destroyed, I’m now pretty confident there will be no invasion of NE Australia. Not that it couldn’t be done, but now, the costs I think would outweigh the gains by far. NE OZ still needs more airfield capability as well as aircraft, and that will be the priority over the coming weeks. Depending on the situation in WAUS, will attempt to start raids on Moresby and Horn Is by month’s end. WAUS. With the landing finally taking place at Port Hedland, I expect WAUS to be the main effort for the next few weeks - with L_S_T clearly maintaining the initiative. I’ve been resigned to losing Port Hedland for a while now, so it’s not unexpected. Wish it was delayed a bit longer to get Exmouth up and running, but I’m glad to have Carnarvon functioning. That’s the goal - get Exmouth up. Will keep the the CVs well of Carnarvon in hopes that Carnarvon is targeting by a bombardment TF, which has been the norm for the IJN. Of course, the KB is the wildcard here. The other area of interest to the IJA is Tennant Creek - will make every attempt to maintain control here, although supply will be a challenge. Burma/India. Pushing back the IJA’s 18th Div to Akyab was most unexpected and welcome this past month, but Akyab is beyond reach for now - if I want to maintain my LOCs. As more Indian Divisions become available (both training and equipment fill wise) I can begin to probe the Burma frontier all along the Indian border, and threaten his LOCs for a change. That’s the goal - probe and threaten. Until more a/c are available, that’s probably all I can hope to accomplish. I’m concerned he’s pushing into China through Paoshon, and will focus efforts, both directly and indirectly from the Indian border, to prevent that from happening. China. Although lines have somewhat stabilized in China, it still doesn’t look promising. Overall supply levels have stabilized at about 54k, but supplies are not getting to the perimeter I’m trying to hold in the south - cities are bone dry of supply. The only choice I’m facing I’m afraid is to continue to pull back to more interior lines - that perimeter is getting VERY small IMO. Will continue to preserve the force. In the air, more fighters are needed as more and more IJA planes are being used in ground attack - likely pilot training, but 80+ Sonias on a strike still do damage (and make an inviting target if I can get past the preceding sweeps). To that, the Chinese AF will slowly return from India to China, re-equipped with better planes and better trained. This of course will be a slow process.
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