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RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/12/2015 8:05:41 PM

operating

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Hmmm! Turkey's population 74.93 million (2013)...

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 31

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 1:51:07 AM

warspite1

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From: England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Unpracticed, unrehearsed, conscript-heavy, "unblooded" amphibious landings in the face of an uninhibited enemy fleet? That's got disaster written all over it.

warspite1

Oh I don't know. Sealion was going to be a doddle according to some. Perhaps Putin should order some Rhine river barges, a few thousand loud hailers and, what was it? Artillery ships and porcupine barges.

And as for training and practising before hand? Not needed.

They will be ashore in no time.....

A WWII Kriegsmarine Porcupine Barge.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 10/13/2015 3:02:27 AM >

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Post #: 32

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 7:48:14 AM

Jagdtiger14

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Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
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Wow Chickenboy...you way under estimate Russia. FYI: in a matter of hours Russia can turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military.

Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border.

70% of Turkey's population is Turk. 20% Kurds...many sharing the Iranian border area...going well into the interior of Anatolia.

I have no love of Putin or the Russians (love the Ukrainians and hate what's happening there), but in Syria right now, Putin has taken off his shirt to show off his new tattoo...a big S on his chest. The west is retreating. China is present and showing support for Russia. Saudi Arabia seems to have taken the lead in opposition to the Russians, and a new alliance has formed between the Kurds, Arabs, and Christians. The Kurds however have an understanding with Asshad...so I think its strictly an anti-ISIS alliance.

In the cold war years, Nixon was able to wrest China away from the USSR orbit. Today, Russia and China are back together. That's a pretty tough combo.

< Message edited by Jagdtiger14 -- 10/13/2015 8:48:43 AM >

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Post #: 33

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 8:07:31 AM

Jagdtiger14

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No need to consolidate gains in Crimea, that happened quite a while ago. As for eastern Ukraine, there is now an official truce with the Ukrainian government, and Russia has moved in some heavy artillery.

Their economy is not well, but that's not going to stop them...and I don't see it crashing other than their stock market. Resources are a valuable commodity, and Russia has lots of everything.

Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment...the Russians would look at least in some way justified. The Turks need help if they can get it (doubtful...I see the same pre-WWII promises from the west), and shooting down Russian aircraft venturing into Turkish air space would even be a mistake, but at least world opinion would be with them (for what its worth...2 cents?).

Russian Army is about 500,000 including paratroopers. Add to that political correct Russian "rules of engagement" = slaughter.

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Post #: 34

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 2:44:17 PM

Chickenboy

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Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Wow Chickenboy...you way under estimate Russia. FYI: in a matter of hours Russia can turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military.

Doubtful. I've no doubts that the Russians could mount a largely successful surprise attack on Turkey's infrastructure, including their electrical grid. But 'turn out the lights in all of Turkey...including their entire military'? Really? I think that's unrealistic.

An hour after the lights get turned out "in all of Turkey", the straits of Bosporus and the Dardanelles get shut down to all Russian traffic. The Russians can forget about any further movement out of the Black Sea. They can't force the Dardanelles or the Bosporus strait. That's completely insane.

So all they have would be their air bridge. Across Turkey. The country they just attacked. Yeah. Good luck with that.

Or a circuitous land route through Iran? Through Georgia? Through...where exactly...to Syria? Yeah. Good luck with that.

quote:

Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border.

I actually laughed out loud when I read this the first time.

Since when does Iran's recent love-fest with Russia (and their attendant arms sales) extend to allowing a major Russian expeditionary force to base in Iran in order to resupply Syria? Iran does share a northern border with Iraq and Turkey, but to resupply the Med. forces, they're going to cross-trek the mountains of Eastern Turkey, Iraq and / or Syria to get there? Land resupply across 300 miles of treacherous roads within interdiction distance of Turkey? Talk about a logistical shoestring!

quote:

but in Syria right now, Putin has taken off his shirt to show off his new tattoo...a big S on his chest.

The Superman myth is only suitable if one believes in the supernatural. Putin is doing a good job of driving the wedge between increasingly tentative alliances and testing the waters. But recognizing where the international sensitivities are and how to poke at them does not mean he's super man by any stretch. No more so than Kim Jong Il is a magnificent statesman because he constantly exploits the South Korean / Chinese / Japanese / American status quo on the Korean peninsula.

I'll be interested in watching this "Superman" pull off an multi-year expeditionary force without cutting off his nose to spite his face. I'll be interested in seeing how the omnipotent Russian forces deal with inevitable losses, challenges to morale, uncensored news leaking back into the Russian mainland and other threats to Putin's brand of realpolitik. Under very narrowly controlled conditions, he's done OK. But this is a much bigger challenge.

quote:

The west is retreating. China is present and showing support for Russia.

Retreating? Not hardly. Just not as vociferous in power projection in the 'near frontier' states as we once were. Where has "the West" (and who does that include, by the way?) retreated from?

But there is a growing national / international feeling of not isolation exactly-but a reluctance to engage abroad in areas that aren't our primary national interest. Strictly speaking, the United States can most 'afford' this world view. The Europeans and Saudis least.

China has an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean, true. Do you really think the Chinese will stick around if any shooting starts? Sure, I get it, they're 'flying the flag' and observing. This is akin to their recent foray to the Aleutians and transit through American territorial waters. They're reminding the world about their growing naval power and nationalism. I get it.

But the Chinese are absolutely pragmatists and focused on their own pre-eminent national interests. First, foremost and always. There is no Chinese critical national interest served by getting dragged into a shooting war over Bashar Assad's regime in Syria. None. So they won't. It doesn't 'cost them' any blood to 'observe'. But that hardly makes an ally. Putin knows this and won't / can't rely on them for anything but putting on a brave face.

quote:

Saudi Arabia seems to have taken the lead in opposition to the Russians, and a new alliance has formed between the Kurds, Arabs, and Christians. The Kurds however have an understanding with Asshad...so I think its strictly an anti-ISIS alliance.

Saudi Arabia is going to be interesting to watch. As much press as the Russian military expenditures have been, take a look at what the Saudis have done in the past decade. Depending on which survey you follow, they are spending more in nominal dollars (and 2-3x more in %GDP terms) than the Russians! They can match the Russians dollar for dollar and then some. And they have to.

They are very skeptical of the Russians' foray into the region and, I believe, will work hard to make the Russians' time in Syria as miserable and bloody as plausible deniability will allow. TOWs to the FSA (via Turkey) are just the start. If the Russians push things too far, the Saudis won't be afraid of equipping these same guys with more capable MANPADs. They don't want to do so today, but the Russians have to mind their 'Ps and Qs' in the area. Bombastic displays of Superman emblems will likely come at a cost in Russian blood and treasure.

quote:

In the cold war years, Nixon was able to wrest China away from the USSR orbit. Today, Russia and China are back together. That's a pretty tough combo.

It would be if it were true. See my previous comments. The Russians and the Chinese are no more "back together" now than they ever were.

The Chinese are pursuing their own self-interests. At this time, the Chinese are interested in serving notice and by flying their flag globally. That's it.

Militarily, the Chinese capabilities are growing, but are still not in a position to be an expeditionary force outside of the South China Sea. What do you think they can accomplish by an under-armed, limited capability second-hand aircraft carrier and support group in the Med?

China's interests are not served by being embroiled in a war in the Med. or by tweaking the nose of their oil supply (Saudis) coming out of the Persian Gulf.

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Post #: 35

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 3:07:14 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
No need to consolidate gains in Crimea, that happened quite a while ago. As for eastern Ukraine, there is now an official truce with the Ukrainian government, and Russia has moved in some heavy artillery.

I believe the Russians will need an occupying force in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine for the foreseeable future, particularly the latter. True, Putin 'wins' by having the Ukranian situation smolder while his gaze goes abroad.

Suppose the Ukranians were to get a gift of 500 TOWs from Saudi Arabia, their freedom-loving Allies? Maybe some MANPADs too? Awww...heck...the Saudis can send 'em some M1A1s also. Why not?

Militarily, there is merit in stoking the embers of this cease fire. Russian blood and treasure would be needed to regain the status quo if the Ukranians were reinforced and properly supplied. Ukranian pressure would require a committed response by the Russians. Their Syrian forays would have to be put on hold or scaled back in order to avoid active participation in a two-front expeditionary war.

quote:

Their economy is not well, but that's not going to stop them...and I don't see it crashing other than their stock market. Resources are a valuable commodity, and Russia has lots of everything.

The collapse in the price of crude oil in the last year has been devastating on the Russian economy. The problem with the Russian economy is that they haven't had the foresight to diversify from the oil heyday after 2008. Sanctions have caused some pain as well.

Russians are now spending 45% of their income just on foodstuffs! That number-thanks to 15% inflation-will go up. I've seen estimates that will be 55% in the next year.

The ruble has been cut in half and is a laughing stock for the international carry trade. Despite Superman's railings against the Dollar / Euro and other reserve currencies, they've held up. The ruble? Not so much. Being as oil exports are denominated in dollar terms, that's doubly damning for the Russians in particular.

quote:

Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment

Not that the Russians have ever *really* needed a prevarication to attack, but how-exactly- would they rationalize a Turkish incursion into Syria as a matter of national life or death? This would be / could be / should be between Turkey and Syria.

Syria has been involved in several regional wars as a belligerent. Mostly involving Israel and / or Lebanon. Did that serve as prevarication for the United States to enter the fray? To simplify it further, if Syria is a vassal state of the Russians, isn't Israel largely considered a vassal state of the United States? If "their" vassal state attacked "our" vassal state and we did nothing overtly in the past, why would they have any realpolitik cause to immediately get personally involved?

quote:

...the Russians would look at least in some way justified. The Turks need help if they can get it (doubtful...I see the same pre-WWII promises from the west), and shooting down Russian aircraft venturing into Turkish air space would even be a mistake, but at least world opinion would be with them (for what its worth...2 cents?).

Russian Army is about 500,000 including paratroopers. Add to that political correct Russian "rules of engagement" = slaughter.

So? The Turkish army is 402,000, including a number of special forces. You think the Turks would give a rip about rules of engagement and PC values if the Russians shoot first?

The Russians' overflights are probing Turkey's resolve. The Syrians have done this from time to time as well. Result? Downed Syrian MiGs.

From the Turks' perspective-you cannot allow your national airspace to be overflown by foreign combatants with an unknown agenda. Full stop. The Russians would be foolish to press their luck, but it wouldn't surprise me if they did.

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Post #: 36

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 3:36:40 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
Turkey would not dare lift a finger in Syria. They will smartly stay on their side of the border as they have thus far if they know what's good for them. Going into Syria would give the Russians casus beli to give them a good whipping and dismemberment

With all due respect, you have no real clue about Turkish capabilities. Russia moving on Turkey would be a complete, total, unmitigated disaster for Russia. And that is excluding the very high (read almost certain) probability of engaging NATO in broad if not direct terms.

(in reply to Jagdtiger14)

Post #: 37

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 5:33:18 PM

Jagdtiger14

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Lecivius: I am fully aware of NATO's obligations to its member states. I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved. If Turkey makes a move into Syria against the Russians, I highly doubt any NATO member would come to Turkey's assistance.

Do you have a clue about Turkish capabilities (other than internet research)? So you think one on one Russia could not defeat Turkey? I see Colorado has collected 100M in pot tax revenue.

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Post #: 38

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 7:39:54 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Lecivius: I am fully aware of NATO's obligations to its member states. I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved. If Turkey makes a move into Syria against the Russians, I highly doubt any NATO member would come to Turkey's assistance.

Do you have a clue about Turkish capabilities (other than internet research)? So you think one on one Russia could not defeat Turkey? I see Colorado has collected 100M in pot tax revenue.

1) Yes, yes I do. First hand, albeit my information is @ 35 years old. And what I saw was impressive. Obviously you do not, other than texts and games or you would/should know better.

2) Russia probably could defeat Turkey. If it went all out, bankrupt their country, risked ostracizing itself to the entire world, risked crippling their military, risked all out war with the west (and all that entailed, and the risk IS there), and was prepared to be an occupying force (with all that entails) for as long as it stayed and with so little to gain. Russia today is a world power, make no mistake. But it is not the Soviet Union any more than the U.S. is what it once was.

3) Just WTF does that have to do with the price of tea in Mexico? Shall I make inane jokes about Florida? Because I can, and I guarantee you won't find them amusing.

Enough. I already started one, I'm not gonna start another.

(in reply to Jagdtiger14)

Post #: 39

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 8:05:04 PM

Jagdtiger14

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"doubtful" Chickenboy? Ever hear of CHAMPS? Russia has something similar that they sold to Syria back in 2012...created a stir in Israel when it went public thanks to Assad bragging about it...and that's just to target specific areas. An EMP burst in the atmosphere can cover a wider area...back in the cold war (60's I think) both sides were experimenting with Starfish E1 EMP's (low yield but intense)...I don't really know the particulars, but I did hear that back in the early 90's when Russia was more cooperative with the US sharing their own data.

What is your fascination about the Bosporus and the Dardanelles? That's two or three times I've read you mentioning that. Why are the Russians supposed to force their way through? Don't assume your opponent will make bad decisions. The Russians have other navies, and I don't think the Black Sea fleet is all that anyway.

Laugh it up Chickenboy. Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, Shiites in Iraq (militia's and government) are all cooperating. In 1979, the USSR was the first to recognize Iran's new government, USSR supplied Iran with weapons to fight Iraq and weapons sales have continued to this day. Russia assisting Iran in its "peaceful" nuclear program, Iran dislikes Turkey, Shanghai cooperation agreement, trade, etc...and now Syria. Yes, if this civil war blows up to include larger nations, Iran will side with Russia. The back door will be open.

Retreating...well, lets see...USS Theodore Roosevelt has recently left the theater (replaced by the Chinese carrier (lets see if they launch any strikes...that would prove one of us wrong)). We've been doing next to nothing vs ISIS (the JV team) for a while now. The 60 nation coalition is a paper tiger coalition with no one doing much of anything including the US...even UAE decided to call it quits because they do not think we are serious. The US has postponed reviving the Geneva Framework (power transition in Syria)...no longer calling for Assad to step down, there is not and never has been a plan. The US is no longer leading anything much less the "free world". Putin is filling this vacuum. Israel is even coordinating with Russia and even cozy-ing up with Russia according to a recent article in the Economist (there is even a vacuum in the Israeli-US relationship).

I don't think the Russian force in Ukraine is an occupying force at all...I think its offensive. The vast majority of eastern + Crimea people are pro-Russian...its as much Russia as Russia is.

Valuable commodities = currency. Putin has been stockpiling gold as Russia prepares for economic war...as gold prices have been falling, Russia has been buying. 55 tonnes in the 3rd quarter this year alone. I think Russia has about 1,150 tonnes (or this is what they hoarded in the last 10 years in total, I cant tell which). As far as I know, Europe is still dependent on Russian gas...so the Europeans will be buying...and if its a colder than normal Winter...

If Turkey really wanted to do something vs Syria, why hav'nt they until now? Doing it now is provocative vs Russia, and I was responding to your suggestion they might want to take out the Russian bases. Not going to happen. Its not about "vassal states" or client states...Russia is there now, and increasing their footprint.

Turkish Army: 77,000 professionals, the rest conscripts. I don't think the Turks would have any "rules of engagement" either...I think that is purely a US invention. My point however to put it bluntly, the Russians are professional butchers.

Big difference between downed Syrian MiGs and downed Russian aircraft. There will be punishment...question is, what happens after Russia punishes Turkey?

The funny thing is I hope you are right. I would like nothing more than to see Russia and Putin go back home with their tail between their legs, and for the Turks to kick butt vs any provocative invasion of their territory. I want to see a strong NATO. However I see massive weakness on the part of the west, combined with a 15 month window for the bad guys to get their goals accomplished (what ever they may be). Underestimating your opponent and over estimating your side...as you like to say: "good luck with that".

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Post #: 40

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 8:37:52 PM

Jagdtiger14

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From: Miami Beach
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Relax Lecivius: Make all the jokes about Florida you want, I'll laugh with you. With me you have to target Wisconsin since that's where I'm from originally (notice my avatar)...and besides, there is probably far more material to work with (I'm a cheese head). Actually I would be proud that Colorado has raised 100M in taxes from pot. You made it sound like Turkey would defeat Russia, so that was the direction of that comment.

Your information goes back to the cold war...35 years ago. Ok. You should know better that a lot has happened since Turkey was on the front line of the cold war...today they have an army of 77,000 professionals...not very impressive to me. Why would Russia have to occupy Turkey? They could destroy their military, set up the independent minded Kurds in the Kurdish areas (most of Anatolia)...perhaps assist the Kurdish area with a defensive force, and watch the rest of Turkey cry in their collective Raki. No going bankrupt (too much gold and other valuable commodities for that to happen...and plenty of buyers), Ostracized from the world...not any more than now, and they have their fans. No crippled military since most everything can be done at a distance. No war with the west since the west has been proven to be impudent (but yes, there is always risk)...but it takes a strong and willing leader to make the bullies back down...we don't have that at the moment.

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Post #: 41

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/13/2015 8:39:08 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

What is your fascination about the Bosporus and the Dardanelles? That's two or three times I've read you mentioning that. Why are the Russians supposed to force their way through? Don't assume your opponent will make bad decisions. The Russians have other navies, and I don't think the Black Sea fleet is all that anyway.

Ummm...because that's the only way practical way that Russia can supply, equip and reinforce their toehold in Syria? That's the way their ships are routing now and the only practical way that their existence in Syria can be supported. Other than an absurdly circuitous route through Iran, how else were you thinking of them getting men and material into theater?

quote:

Yes, if this civil war blows up to include larger nations, Iran will side with Russia. The back door will be open.

And if the Russians cheese off the Saudis and Turks enough, the front door will be closed. Witness their greater cooperation in supplying and equipping the rebels in Syria's north. While the US has vacillated, these two have filled much of the vacuum.

quote:

Retreating...well, lets see...USS Theodore Roosevelt has recently left the theater (replaced by the Chinese carrier (lets see if they launch any strikes...that would prove one of us wrong)).

Do you really believe that the USN will not be sending a replacement carrier group to the Med in short order? Really? Do you think that the departure of the Theodore Roosevelt was in response to Russia's build up in the area? That we're running from a Russian "carrier" group? I see no evidence of that.

I'm a betting man, Jagdtiger14. So let's put up some money. I'll bet you a bottle of your favorite beverage ($40 USD max) that the Chinese aircraft carrier leaves the area without launching a strike in Syria. You up for a little friendly wager?

quote:

If Turkey really wanted to do something vs Syria, why hav'nt they until now? Doing it now is provocative vs Russia, and I was responding to your suggestion they might want to take out the Russian bases. Not going to happen.

You mischaracterize my remarks. My remarks about a Turkish incursion into Syria were in response to your thoughts about Russia's recognition of a new Kurdish homeland in the area. Them's fightin' words for the Turks.

The Russians agitating for a breakaway section of an independent Kurdish state whilest at war in the neighboring country? That would be hugely provocative on the part of the Russians. It would be akin to them being in Mexico suppressing guerrillas and stumping for the "reconquista" of the Southwest United States.

Turkey could (would/ should?) respond to this provocation with force, if and when it comes. The Russians in Syria wouldn't be in a position to stop a full-throated Turkish attack. That such a blatant provocation hasn't yet occurred is fortunate.

quote:

Underestimating your opponent and over estimating your side...as you like to say: "good luck with that".

I too see weakness in some quarters in the West. But Russia and China aren't "all that and a bag of peanuts" either. Overestimating their capabilities in expeditionary warfare, political dirty tricks, subterfuge and staying power isn't helpful either. Putin=Superman? Absurd fanboi nonsense.

In a way, I'm going to appreciate watching the new Turk/Saudi/Kurd/Sunni coalition come together and solve at least one of their region's problems. When it inevitably gets bloody for the Russians, they won't be able to control the narrative any more. That's when it will start to get interesting.

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Post #: 42

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 1:42:07 AM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

Oh. Right. There's these two news items that are germane to the conversation.

It seems that the Theodore Roosevelt is busy with war games in the Bay of Bengal. I suspect these had been planned for many moons and are a likely explanation for her departure from the Med. Love the title too.

http://www.voanews.com/content/india-us-japan-kick-off-naval-drills-likely-to-annoy-china/3002450.html

Also, I had thought that China's aircraft carrier wasn't ready for prime time yet. They only recently did the first carrier landing and are mostly using this vessel as a test bed for carrier naval air operations.

Some internet news spoof site (these whack-a-moles are everywhere) called DEBKAfile claimed EXCLUSIVE (yeah, right) information about the Liaoning passing through the Suez canal on the way there. The UK Defence Journal had this to say:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/china-have-not-sent-an-aircraft-carrier-to-syria/

So, Jagdtiger14, I would like to repeat my offer for a bet. I reiterate that there will be no Chinese aircraft carrier strikes on Syrian soil this month or next. If I'm wrong, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Will you?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 10/14/2015 2:42:32 AM >

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Post #: 43

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 7:41:05 AM

Jagdtiger14

Posts: 1686
Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
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Make a wager, huh? $40 USD max? Does that include delivery? Thanks for sharing the info on no carrier in Syria, and you are correct about those crazy sites especially Debka. At the moment the port in Syria where the carrier would dock is empty, and it hasn't been revealed where it currently is...could be off the coast of Syria, could be operating near the Spratley's? Those in the know have not reported anything...although I would think a Suez transit would be obvious to everyone...so I retract my previous statement that the Chinese carrier has made its appearance as was the talk of the web these past few days (I personally am not privy to top secret info and can not see for myself all the way from Miami Beach). Personally I think it would be a good move for the Chinese to make. The Chinese have warships operating in the Gulf of Aden (anti-piracy?)...and probably at least one of them has made its way to the Med. If the carrier does make its way to the Med, perhaps it might be transporting air assets to a Russian or Syrian base, where they will carry out strikes from there. My broader point is the Russian/Chinese alliance and possible cooperation in Syria. Would you like to make a bet that China launches strikes in Syria? Before you take that bet, check this out:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/610286/China-preparing-to-team-up-with-Russia-in-Syria-Boost-for-Putin-in-battle-against-ISIS

No, the Bosporus/Dardanelles is the MOST practical way (not ONLY way)...which by looking at a map is obvious. The Russians now have a base in Iraq. The Syrians still control most of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria and its airport, and have recently attacked and expanded in the area north and south against ISIS. The Syrian army is on the outskirts of Palmyra, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take the airport there soon. Then there is the Al-Tanf-Al-Walid (Iraq/Syria) crossing near to the Jordan border held by ISIS, along with the ISIS held towns of At Tenf and Jabal at Tenf all of which are isolated and tenuous. Taking these would create a land bridge from Iraq and the Russian base in Iraq to the Syrian air base at Sayqal. You may think an Iranian/Iraqi route is absurd for Russia, but Russia does not.

"The rebels in Syria's north"...well, the Kurds have an agreement or truce with the Syrian government...that's why there has been no fighting between them in Qamishli and Al-Hasakah. The new rebel alliance that includes the Kurds (YPG) I doubt will fight the Syrian Army and will probably only be aimed at ISIS. There is a report today that the Syrian Army together with its allies (thousands of Iranian troops plus Hezbollah) are getting ready for an offensive in Aleppo. This could be dis-information for an offensive elsewhere...but will be interesting to see what happens.

I didn't say the US carrier group was running from anything, but it was removed from the theater at a very curious time. Don't we have a permanent fleet based in the Med? Carriers are on rotation often, but why not make sure you have one in theater at all times? Did I say the carrier ran away because a Russian fleet appeared?...you should really stop setting up straw men Chickenboy. Retreat meant in a political and leadership way. A US carrier strike group could devastate anything in that area, but it requires leadership to use it correctly. I think this is all part of the US/West lack/vacuum of leadership.

And my response for Russia supporting the Kurds in Turkey if Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft. Russia/Putin tends to be very provocative...nothing new there.

Russia getting too close or violating Turkish airspace, Turkey shooting down Russian aircraft, Russia calling for a Kurdish state = Turkey invading Syria to get at the Russians? No. Russia testing Turkish resolve can only mean they are testing NATO resolve. Russia would like to see NATO go bye-bye. This has been their best chance so far. If everything devolves including the Turks foolishly deciding to go after the Russians in Turkey (which I do not think they are that stupid to do) then we have a possible WWIII scenario, and NATO (or anyone) is ill prepared at the moment for that. It will be "diplomacy" at all cost for the west unfortunately.

Unfortunately Putin is Superman compared to any leadership coming out of the west...its the west that has allowed him to become Superman. At one time the US was the leader of the free world. No more at least for now it appears. I'm not a fan of Putin, and I am certainly not a boi.

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Post #: 44

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 9:21:19 AM

Aurelian

Posts: 3916
Joined: 2/26/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Oh. Right. There's these two news items that are germane to the conversation.

It seems that the Theodore Roosevelt is busy with war games in the Bay of Bengal. I suspect these had been planned for many moons and are a likely explanation for her departure from the Med. Love the title too.

http://www.voanews.com/content/india-us-japan-kick-off-naval-drills-likely-to-annoy-china/3002450.html

Also, I had thought that China's aircraft carrier wasn't ready for prime time yet. They only recently did the first carrier landing and are mostly using this vessel as a test bed for carrier naval air operations.

Some internet news spoof site (these whack-a-moles are everywhere) called DEBKAfile claimed EXCLUSIVE (yeah, right) information about the Liaoning passing through the Suez canal on the way there. The UK Defence Journal had this to say:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/china-have-not-sent-an-aircraft-carrier-to-syria/

So, Jagdtiger14, I would like to repeat my offer for a bet. I reiterate that there will be no Chinese aircraft carrier strikes on Syrian soil this month or next. If I'm wrong, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Will you?

Yeah, I'm sure the USN is just shaking in their boots over a mobile ski jump that would need extensive ground support

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Post #: 45

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 9:27:58 AM

Orm

Posts: 22154
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline

Off Topic.

You mentioned Chinese anti-piracy mission in Aden, and that reminded me that three Chinese Navy ships recently visited Stockholm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atKQ29FFCcI

http://stockholmtoday.se/chinese-war-ships-in-stockholm/

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Post #: 46

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 1:14:17 PM

Lecivius

Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Relax Lecivius: Make all the jokes about Florida you want, I'll laugh with you. With me you have to target Wisconsin since that's where I'm from originally (notice my avatar)...and besides, there is probably far more material to work with (I'm a cheese head). Actually I would be proud that Colorado has raised 100M in taxes from pot. You made it sound like Turkey would defeat Russia, so that was the direction of that comment.

Your information goes back to the cold war...35 years ago. Ok. You should know better that a lot has happened since Turkey was on the front line of the cold war...today they have an army of 77,000 professionals...not very impressive to me. Why would Russia have to occupy Turkey? They could destroy their military, set up the independent minded Kurds in the Kurdish areas (most of Anatolia)...perhaps assist the Kurdish area with a defensive force, and watch the rest of Turkey cry in their collective Raki. No going bankrupt (too much gold and other valuable commodities for that to happen...and plenty of buyers), Ostracized from the world...not any more than now, and they have their fans. No crippled military since most everything can be done at a distance. No war with the west since the west has been proven to be impudent (but yes, there is always risk)...but it takes a strong and willing leader to make the bullies back down...we don't have that at the moment.

Screw U. Your the one who mentioned Colorado pot in an inane attempt to discredit my opinion & slander my character.

My personal, on hand, feet on the ground experience is Turkey would not be a walkover. Your gamers opinion, made from the comfort of your PC looking at stats, is that Russia would give Turkey "give them a good whipping and dismemberment". You will have to excuse me if I look back on recent American History to know what a soldier from 35 years ago thinks of THAT opinion.

Your the one who, rather improperly, stated "Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border. ". That's occupation. If your talking about aerial interdiction, you better go get a map. And learn to read it.

"Today, Russia and China are back together.". That's insane. China is shopping for resources. Period. The thought that China's group in the med is there to reinforce Russia is mind boggling. They are looking at Africa, not the Middle East, and are projecting in that direction.

Your description of the Russian army "about 500,000 including paratroopers" may or may not be accurate. Who cares. A trained and motivated Russian soldier is someone to be respected. Most Russian soldiers, however, are not. The Turkish army is second only to the Russian army. Again, a lot of conscripts, but they will be fighting on their home ground. The Red Army never tried to take on the Turks at the height of their power, when they were FAR more powerful than the Russian army of today.

You pontificate a lot. You have zero experience, little real knowledge, and damn all little character. Fortunately, there is this little green button. The best web tool ever. So I don't have to be the little kid on the fighting on internet.

Attachment (2)

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Post #: 47

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 1:27:53 PM

Orm

Posts: 22154
Joined: 5/3/2008
From: Sweden
Status: offline

Be nice, please.

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Post #: 48

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 1:42:20 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
so I retract my previous statement that the Chinese carrier has made its appearance as was the talk of the web these past few days

No bet.

China may, in the indeterminate future, elect to get involved in Syria. They are seemingly identifying ways to show (at no cost to themselves) alignment with Russia. They've yet to put their money where their mouth is. I don't know if they will. Flying the flag with Russia (for Russia) seems to mollify the Russians for now, so that's probably all they'll do.

But the supposition that the Chinese were going to start launching anti-ISIS/FSA strikes from their carrier in the Med was clearly premature. That was the bet I was trying to solicit. Not what they'll do 6 months or a year down the road.

I found this to be an interesting and even-handed review of the modern Russian army: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/motherland-land-forces-russian-federation/

As befits so much of Russia, the Red Army is a study in contrasts. An amalgam of Soviet dogma, class struggle, corruption, furtive modernization efforts and clinging tendrils of history.

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Post #: 49

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 3:30:11 PM

Erik Rutins

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
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Keep it civil please, or we'll have to lock this one up.

Regards,

- Erik

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Post #: 50

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 4:00:08 PM

Aurelian

Posts: 3916
Joined: 2/26/2007
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I found this to be an interesting and even-handed review of the modern Russian army: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/motherland-land-forces-russian-federation/

Good read.

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Post #: 51

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 4:12:15 PM

CarnageINC

Posts: 2208
Joined: 2/28/2005
From: Rapid City SD
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Keep it civil please, or we'll have to lock this one up.

Regards,

- Erik

I for one, wish you would. Opinionated 'experts' desiring to giving their opinions on political/military matters on a gaming forum, for what end??? X military is better then Y military for Z reasoning...

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Post #: 52

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 6:53:38 PM

operating

Posts: 3158
Joined: 1/19/2013
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Some may not agree with previous posts in this thread, there's always apposing position to any position it does not make a difference if the thread actually has beneficial information for the greater good. If you do not like it, then don't read it and move on, instead of being a stain

or whatever. The discussion here very well could be the nexus for a ME game development, that involves all aspects of the discussion to consider, aside from any particular perspective. I'm pretty darn sure game developers have similar discussions that go on here. Yes, I like to see the conversation stay civil and keep with valid content, let's face it: Nobody is perfect folks (can't wait for the comments on this.

). I don't know about other members, I learn something new just about everyday here, be it educational or "just for the fun of it stuff". There's plenty of non-game related posting.

(in reply to CarnageINC)

Post #: 53

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/14/2015 9:21:50 PM

rhondabrwn

Posts: 2570
Joined: 9/29/2004
From: Snowflake, Arizona
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: operating

Some may not agree with previous posts in this thread, there's always apposing position to any position it does not make a difference if the thread actually has beneficial information for the greater good. If you do not like it, then don't read it and move on, instead of being a stain or whatever. The discussion here very well could be the nexus for a ME game development, that involves all aspects of the discussion to consider, aside from any particular perspective. I'm pretty darn sure game developers have similar discussions that go on here. Yes, I like to see the conversation stay civil and keep with valid content, let's face it: Nobody is perfect folks (can't wait for the comments on this.). I don't know about other members, I learn something new just about everyday here, be it educational or "just for the fun of it stuff". There's plenty of non-game related posting.

Agreed... this thread has been very informative and I would hate to see a brief temper flare result in a "lock up". Lighten up a bit on the disagreements guys

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Post #: 54

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 4:00:08 AM

Jagdtiger14

Posts: 1686
Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
Status: offline

Now the Cubans are in Syria:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/14/cuban-military-forces-deployed-to-syria-to-operate-russian-tanks-say-sources/

Would it be conspiratorial to ask if taking Cuba off the list of state sponsors of terrorism has anything to do with them going into Syria?

More and more things seem to be adding up between US actions and the actions of the Russian alliance...is it coincidence? My thinking is that it isn't.

Are Cubans really more experienced operating Russian tanks than Russians? I'm sure the Russians would rather Cubans die is my guess.

< Message edited by Jagdtiger14 -- 10/15/2015 5:05:36 AM >

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Post #: 55

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 10:57:31 AM

operating

Posts: 3158
Joined: 1/19/2013
Status: offline

Yes, there have been other hints this past week in the news that Cuba is joining the fight. I would not be surprised that if Venezuela decides to send "advisors" to gain experience on how wars are fought in the ME. After all Venezuela is chafing with it's neighbors for what could be a fight of it's own over recently discovered oil deposits. Maybe others countries are getting prepared to join the Russian Coalition in Syria....

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Post #: 56

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 1:25:54 PM

Jim D Burns

Posts: 4013
Joined: 2/25/2002
From: Salida, CA.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved.

Have to agree, this is another "red line" issue. If Obama doesn't lead NATO into battle, no other NATO member will lift a finger militarily even if another member is invaded. Like it or not the NATO alliance has devolved into a US and its minor allies alliance. No other NATO member but the US has the strength and capabilities to take on Putin and Putin knows it.

Putin fears no one except the US on a military standpoint, and for years that fear has held him in check. He no longer fears the US and his current actions prove it. I would expect to see many new moves by Putin into the Middle East before the next election (leased naval and air base from Iran on the Persian Gulf, land forces in Iraq, return to Afghanistan if the US leaves, etc.). If he can get his toe in the door before a new administration then the US will be seen as the aggressor if it makes moves to try and expel him later.

Jim

< Message edited by Jim D Burns -- 10/15/2015 2:27:14 PM >

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Post #: 57

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 3:33:16 PM

Jagdtiger14

Posts: 1686
Joined: 1/22/2008
From: Miami Beach
Status: offline

Burns, I completely agree! I've been mentioning that Putin, et al...have about 15 months left to do their dirty work (third week of January 2017), then it depends on who the next President is if that 15 months is expanded into another 4 years or not.

It's better to be feared than loved. Peace is a great thing, but you can only have it if you are strong...and willing to use that strength.

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Post #: 58

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 4:04:50 PM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved.

Have to agree, this is another "red line" issue. If Obama doesn't lead NATO into battle, no other NATO member will lift a finger militarily even if another member is invaded. Like it or not the NATO alliance has devolved into a US and its minor allies alliance. No other NATO member but the US has the strength and capabilities to take on Putin and Putin knows it.

Putin fears no one except the US on a military standpoint....

Jim

warspite1

You make it sound like this is a recent development which seems a little strange. This has always been the case. Take NATO, remove the US, and what do you have?

Do you think that any nation is going to undertake serious military action (home soil + possessions excepted) without the full agreement of the US? Remember Suez.

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 10/15/2015 5:15:17 PM >

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Post #: 59

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/15/2015 4:15:21 PM

operating

Posts: 3158
Joined: 1/19/2013
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Ya, now you are showing your age!

That was joint effort by both Great Brittan and France to take back the Suez Canal until the USA pulled the rug from under the whole deal IIRC. My third grade class had quill pens then.