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RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 8:46:35 PM

operating

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The Keystone Pipeline from Canada to New Orleans, should it ever be built would reduce oil dependence from the ME. It's been argued as a way for Europe not to be too dependent on Russian oil and gas. This pipeline may not be enough to satisfy all of Europe's energy demands, but certainly a secure supply in Peacetime.

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Post #: 91

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 9:31:59 PM

rhondabrwn

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Great analysis and I think you guys have captured Putin's political fantasies perfectly.

The possibility of all this happening? Doubtful. If the US couldn't dominate after 15 years with a level of financial expenditure that the Russian economy can never match, why would anyone think that all these nations would willingly become Russian satellite states? Their first effort in Afghanistan really worked out well for them (not). How about Russian efforts to control all their breakaway Muslim states as the USSR collapsed? How many of them have rolled over and become satellites again?

Putin puts tanks and attack helicopters into Syria; the US has already started supplying rebel groups with anti-tank weaponry (probably also effective against choppers)... and so it goes, once again. Suicide bombers and IED's work just as well against any invaders, East/West, Good intentions/bad intentions, Arabs and Persians aren't going to sit back and be anyone's lapdog. Hasn't that become obvious?

I'm really not that worried about Putin, just sorry about all the innocent lives being lost in the Middle East cauldron of sectarian, religious, and geopolitical intrigues. I wish I could see a solution, but I'm afraid that the Middle East will to confront their own problems and find their own solutions, however bloody that process may be.

I readily admit to not being anywhere near as informed as the commentators on this thread. I am very respectful of your knowledge and analysis... seriously!

What I offer is more of a cultural/political overview that I have synthesized from my own life experiences and observations over many decades. Call it "feminine intuition" if you like, but I've always had a capacity to see trends and relationships that often seem to escape people's attention. My brain is wired a bit differently. So take my comments for whatever you think they are worth, or not

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My old Piczo site seems to be gone, so no more Navajo Nation pics :(

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Post #: 92

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 10:12:32 PM

Jim D Burns

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rhondabrwn
why would anyone think that all these nations would willingly become Russian satellite states?

Put simply the US is a benevolent power, Russia is not. He won�t be making Satellite states, he�ll be making puppet states. Putin will assassinate any leader he needs to in order to get his man into position of higher office if need be. To reduce attacks in a region Putin will raze entire towns or tribes if he needs to, look at what was done in Chechnya. The world did little to stop what Russia did there, hell the world didn�t even bother to try and find out what was done. The same will happen in Syria and Iraq once Russia closes the borders to the outside world.

quote:

ORIGINAL: rhondabrwn
Their first effort in Afghanistan really worked out well for them (not).

The world and technology has changed a lot since then. Back then the Afghans could hide in the mountains. Today modern satellites and GPS guided munitions means direct confrontation with the military will only be what we faced in Iraq. IED�s and hit and run mortar attacks. These will not deter Russia from controlling a country, to do that you need to cause far more havoc and until the Arabs catch up with education and technology they are far too outclassed today on a conventional point. Don�t make the common mistake of thinking about today�s wars based on yesterday�s wars, things have changed a lot since the 80�s.

Also remember Russia doesn�t need the Arab people, it just needs to control the resources which is easy enough to do if you�re willing to carpet bomb towns and kill innocents. Russia can easily keep a radius of many miles around the oil wells clear of people if it wants to.

quote:

ORIGINAL: rhondabrwn
but I'm afraid that the Middle East will to confront their own problems and find their own solutions, however bloody that process may be.

Wishful thinking I�m afraid, this can�t possibly happen right now. This cannot occur until the Muslim religion goes through a period of reformation and the Muslim people take political power away from the church the way the Christians did. Until then the best we can hope for is a secular military takeover of power as happened in Egypt. If we can secularize all Islamic militaries then there is a chance the world can peacefully co-exist with their theocratic governments. But as long as there are fundamental Islamic militaries in existence like the one in Iran, there is not going to be peace in the Middle East.

Jim

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Post #: 93

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 10:52:59 PM

rhondabrwn

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Good points Jim, especially the last paragraph. Of course, the secular states tend towards dictatorship and brutal suppression of human rights. Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria... while the religious states seem to follow the same pattern: Iran (post revolution), Afghanistan (Taliban era). It seems that eventually you end up with some kind of revolt followed by civil war. Even separation doesn't seem to work: India vs Pakistan (Muslim vs Hinduism). I think the real answer is to eliminate all religions (ala John Lennon "Imagine") but that will never happen.

Mankind is doomed

Oh, and interesting theory that technology has developed to such an extent that rebels have no place to hide on the modern battlefield. They seem to be managing petty well by just making themselves indistinguishable from the general population and that isn't going to change, it's the essence of any guerrilla or revolutionary strategy. I don't think ruthless suppression is a permanent solution. You referenced Chechnya, resistance to Russian rule dates back to 1785. While they did lose militarily to the USSR in the 2nd Chechen War, the fight continues through terrorist attacks and an active resistance movement with bombings in Russia. Suppression isn't winning... it's like a bleeding wound that won't heal... constantly threatening to erupt. Seize the oil fields? Someone will infiltrate and blow up wellheads, pipelines, shipping facilities, and refineries. Keeping many troops on station all over the Middle East to maintain control through sheer might and ruthlessness is going to be an expensive proposition, in money, lives, and materiel. Is the state of Russia strong enough to do that?

I was more worried about how cozy Europe was getting with the new Russian state before Putin's aggressive moves began. The idea of European dependence on Russian oil and natural gas was disturbing (and still is). The steady reduction in military budgets and preparedness over this time was of concern as well. A resurgent Russian imperialist state may reverse those trends and leave Russia isolated economically and confronted by a resurgent NATO.

Just speculation... but I see Putin losing it all in the near future. Just that "intuition" running wild again

Enjoying your input

Let's keep this thread going!

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My old Piczo site seems to be gone, so no more Navajo Nation pics :(

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Post #: 94

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 11:15:24 PM

KISSMEUFOOL!

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quote:

Put simply the US is a benevolent power, Russia is not.

That was partially true 25 years ago but is not the case now.

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Post #: 95

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/16/2015 11:23:11 PM

rhondabrwn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: KISSMEUFOOL!

quote:

Put simply the US is a benevolent power, Russia is not.

That was partially true 25 years ago but is not the case now.

Probably not a subject we can get away with discussing, though I agree with you.

Let's let this one drop, ok?

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Love & Peace,

Far Dareis Mai

My old Piczo site seems to be gone, so no more Navajo Nation pics :(

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Post #: 96

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/17/2015 12:33:55 AM

Jim D Burns

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rhondabrwn
They seem to be managing petty well by just making themselves indistinguishable from the general population and that isn't going to change, it's the essence of any guerrilla or revolutionary strategy.

Russia doesn�t need to control the entire country the way the US did. The US was trying to free Iraq from fundamentalism so they could hold free and fair elections. So the US needed to go into every corner of the nation that was infected with fundamentalists and clear them out. But we did it with an eye towards saving innocent lives whenever possible, so we made sacrifices a country like Russia won�t. Russia will simply obliterate any town that they find occupied with opposition fighters, no need for troops on the ground, they�ll use pure firepower. Once 10-20 towns get destroyed like this, the people themselves will start to drive out any fighters lest they become victims of Russia�s firepower.

Russia only needs to hold government centers, its military bases, the vital strategic resources and transportation routes. The oil in Chechnya has been pumping non-stop and getting out to markets for sale even while the worst of the fighting was going on. So I doubt an insurgency can stop the oil in Iraq either. It might cause pinpricks now and again, but it won�t force Russia out.

Jim

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Post #: 97

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/17/2015 11:20:45 PM

rhondabrwn

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Maybe, but I can't believe they could get away with this level of atrocity... there would be blowback from the rest of the world... economic sanctions, interventions by other world powers, jihadi volunteers...

Of course, look how well ruthless suppression worked for Hitler. Totally crushed all resistance movements by shooting civilians, destroying towns to make an example of them and so forth. Yea, it really worked well... not. Such tactics tend to elevate a people's will to resist. I don't think modern killing technology will change that fundamental factor... methods of resistance will adapt to the new threats.

I remain unconvinced that Russia has the key to dominating the Middle East. Still think they are making a huge mistake to get involved.

We'll see how it turns out, but I think you are overestimating Russian military power, in the same way it turns out that the West overestimated the USSR Cold War threats. Until then, it's all speculation isn't it?

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Love & Peace,

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My old Piczo site seems to be gone, so no more Navajo Nation pics :(

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Post #: 98

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 1:22:56 AM

Aurelian

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Worked equally well for the Soviets in Afghanistan

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RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 4:18:05 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

Egypt, Libya, Iraq, Syria... while the religious states seem to follow the same pattern: Iran (post revolution), Afghanistan (Taliban era). It seems that eventually you end up with some kind of revolt followed by civil war. Even separation doesn't seem to work: India vs Pakistan (Muslim vs Hinduism). I think the real answer is to eliminate all religions (ala John Lennon "Imagine") but that will never happen.

Mankind is doomed

I wouldn't take quite such a pessimistic view. Three years ago a professor of psychology named Stephen Pinker came out with a remarkable book:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143122010?keywords=stephen%20pinker%20the%20better%20angels%20of%20our%20nature&qid=1445140810&ref_=sr_1_1&s=books&sr=1-1
which argued, backed by statistics, that we are in the most peaceful period in recorded history. It's possible that the breakout of violence that is the aftermath of the Arab Spring has pushed the numbers back up a bit, but when you look at percentages we are still not at the level of the Napoleonic Wars, or the Tai'Ping Rebellion and Opium Wars.

And Pinker maintained that things were going to get even better. Here I think he may overlooked a few things. He believed that Islam was going to evolve to a less dominant creed, but he underrated the difficulty of re-interpreting the Quran. (A surprising mistake for a linguist to make; he should have known that Arabic has never fallen into disuse as Hebrew and Aramaic did, so there is a lot less leeway for re-interpretation.) Nonetheless, I have a feeling that by the end of this century there will be an unspoken consensus to ignore the less savory parts of the Quran, just as almost no one pays attention to the unsettling parts of Leviticus anymore.

And the problem of revolutions resulting in chaos has been around for a long time as well. Winston Churchill did a nice passage on the issue in "The River War", his study of the re-conquest of the Sudan after the fall of Khartoum. I don't have the text ready to hand, but he pointed out that first revolutions rarely succeed, but there are generally second movements and even third ones, so that if one measures by centuries instead of decades, significant progress is usually made.

< Message edited by Capt. Harlock -- 10/18/2015 5:19:36 AM >

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Post #: 100

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 5:19:28 AM

Jim D Burns

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

which argued, backed by statistics, that we are in the most peaceful period in recorded history.

For the past 70 or so years the US has acted as the world�s police if you will. We just quit that job, things are going to get more and more chaotic especially as all the small nations of the world start to re-arm, soon everyone will want nukes and will actively seek them out. Once the first true nuclear war breaks out all bets are off and the professors� statistics will go out the window.

I know a lot of people enjoy bashing the US since it has been the dominate force in the world, but the stabilizing force of a free and democratic Superpower has built up a lot of false security in people. Things are going to get ugly as they always have in human history whenever dictators ran the show.

Jim

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Post #: 101

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 5:44:26 AM

Jim D Burns

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rhondabrwn
Until then, it's all speculation isn't it?

Of course it is, that�s what we are discussing what we speculate Putin is up to. As far as Russian military power goes, the US already destroyed the lion�s share of heavy fighting equipment in Iraq, and ISIS has no proficient anti-air capabilities so destroying them will be a cake walk for a few brigades of Russian troops backed up by modern aviation.

I also suspect (speculate) Russia, China and Iran already have a secret deal and a declaration of war on any one of them will bring the other two nations in as allies. Can�t prove it, but all three nations have already publicly stated to their peoples a willingness to go to war with the US, so it makes sense they�d have been holding secret talks in case of an actual conflict.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/31/putin-threatens-nuclear-war-over-ukraine.html

http://tankler.com/war-is-inevitable-china-threatens-united-states-302

Iran needs no link of course. �Death to America�.

Jim

< Message edited by Jim D Burns -- 10/18/2015 6:50:05 AM >

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Post #: 102

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 3:17:29 PM

Jagdtiger14

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Concerning talk of revolution...here is an interesting review on a new book: "Shattered Consensus" by James Piereson.

http://nypost.com/2015/10/17/history-is-repeating-itself-america-is-due-for-a-revolution/

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Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

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Post #: 103

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 3:29:59 PM

Jagdtiger14

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On a news program a few weeks ago I remember hearing a retired US General (don't know his name) mentioning that one national guard US brigade (he didn't mention a particular one, but I'll inject the 32nd Red Arrow into this), in full supply, with air support could completely eliminate ISIS as an organized force in about a month. He also mentioned allied Arab units would have to garrison the various cities and villages afterwards.

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Post #: 104

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 3:35:58 PM

Orm

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

On a news program a few weeks ago I remember hearing a retired US General (don't know his name) mentioning that one national guard US brigade (he didn't mention a particular one, but I'll inject the 32nd Red Arrow into this), in full supply, with air support could completely eliminate ISIS as an organized force in about a month. He also mentioned allied Arab units would have to garrison the various cities and villages afterwards.

He actually thought they would stay and fight?

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RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 3:44:17 PM

Jagdtiger14

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Good point Orm!

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Post #: 106

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/18/2015 5:20:26 PM

z1812

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This article by Kissinger is interesting.

http://www.wsj.com/article_email/a-path-out-of-the-middle-east-collapse-1445037513-lMyQjAxMTI1MjE2NzIxMDcwWj

This one is interesting too.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/16/cuba-is-intervening-in-syria-to-help-russia-it-s-not-the-first-time-havana-s-assisted-moscow.html

< Message edited by z1812 -- 10/18/2015 6:26:03 PM >

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Post #: 107

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 5:36:29 AM

Jagdtiger14

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Anyone know how to imbed a photo? I found an interesting pic!

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Post #: 108

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 7:55:19 AM

rhondabrwn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Anyone know how to imbed a photo? I found an interesting pic!

First, do not use "fast reply"... it doesn't have the embed option.

Do a regular reply or quote and then click the "embed" checkbox and then click on the "upload picture" link. You can upload one to three pictures per post.

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Love & Peace,

Far Dareis Mai

My old Piczo site seems to be gone, so no more Navajo Nation pics :(

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Post #: 109

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 8:22:25 AM

Jagdtiger14

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Oh, ok. Thank you rhondabrwn!

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Post #: 110

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 8:53:33 AM

Josh

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Anyone know how to imbed a photo? I found an interesting pic!

I usually do something like this; right click on pic, then copy the link (usually ends in .jpg or .jpeg or .giff) then paste that line here in your reply like this ; http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfiles/28013/CC4E08CE38EE4ADFA95F2623249A1BE4.gif

and put [img] linky here [/img]

so you get this

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Post #: 111

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 8:55:20 AM

Josh

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If I only knew how to upload an Avatar LOL. Tried it a few times never worked for me

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Post #: 112

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 6:06:02 PM

aaatoysandmore

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If only I could remember how to put a large link into a small one like "Link" nstead of a million letters.

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Post #: 113

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 6:38:09 PM

operating

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Josh

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Anyone know how to imbed a photo? I found an interesting pic!

I usually do something like this; right click on pic, then copy the link (usually ends in .jpg or .jpeg or .giff) then paste that line here in your reply like this ; http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/upfiles/28013/CC4E08CE38EE4ADFA95F2623249A1BE4.gif

and put [img] linky here [/img]

so you get this

Josh, That looks like a blank page to me

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Post #: 114

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 7:22:24 PM

Josh

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Sorry about ruining this thread gents.

@ Operating; oh that's odd. Because I clearly can see JagdTiger's Avatar the BB Wisconsin. Refreshing your page doesn't help either?

@ AAAToysandmore; "If only I could remember how to put a large link into a small one like "Link" nstead of a million letters"
Easy peasy, instead of "img" you use "url". So the link goes: [url=copy link here usually a very long youtube link] then write here whatever you want [ / url ]
The last part [ / url ] needs to be without spaces.
Oh and URL stands for Universal Request Language yeah it's old.

/Still waiting for that "interesting pic" tho

< Message edited by Josh -- 10/19/2015 8:23:53 PM >

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Post #: 115

RE: Syria Civil War II - 10/19/2015 8:45:44 PM

Aurelian

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