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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 4:02:12 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The "Next war" modification is in the works .. in a "Guns of the South" fantasy modification aliens arm the IJN
with Phalanx Point Defense weapons systems


Planned carrier upgrades





Attachment (1)

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Post #: 3931
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 4:04:06 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		That is simply beautiful!!!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 4:17:24 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		Good play on your part.

Carriers in port with a minimal CAP whilst in range of Allied 4Es.........

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Post #: 3933
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 4:30:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here are the implications:

1. Even if no carriers had been damaged, I'd have been delighted to know they were at Singers. It would give me a window to send some supply convoys and combat ship TFs to Sabang with little chance of interdiction by a large carrier force.

2. Since the KB is in damaged state, that window is now considerably bigger. I'll seriously ramp up suppy convoys to Sabang. I may also reinforce with infantry - that's a major step. Supply is currently 250k at Sabang, which is level two port and level eight airfield. So there's no diminishment concern.

3. This should blunt some of the pressure on Sabang by air, at least temporarily. John will post enormous CAP at Singers until he can get his ships repaired or safely away. Too, the raid in the Java Sea and the current raid near Japan (John's patrols lit that one up today) will force him to disperse his air a bit. Every day without massive attacks against Sabang are like gold. If I get days or a week or more it makes a huge difference. Ultimately, I've got to nurse my dwindling fighter corps until April, when Hellcats start to become available. This attack is a big step forward.

4. With the KB whittled a bit - probably for several weeks or more - John will be more concerned about the Allied carriers. He doesn't know exactly where they are, but he does know their aircraft are operating out of Sabang and Burma. He'll be cautious. This buys more time for the Allies in Sumatra - I don't think he can win the campaign without using his carriers to shut down traffic between Ceylon and Sabang.

5. A few days ago I upped Allied chances of winning in Sumatra from 15-20% to perhaps 25%. Perhaps those odds are now at 50%. This means alot as far as my willingness to commit valuable assets forward. I'd be more reluctant in a hopeless cause. But this cause isn't hopeless.

6. The Sumatra Campaign is the primary focus. But the secondary focus has always been to whittle down Japanese naval power. This has been a terrific week with the sinking of CAs Takao and Ashigara and now damage to the KB. I'll continue to work this angle - this is a target rich environment and the Allies have lots of assets.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/7/2016 5:30:17 PM >

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 3934
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 4:36:53 PM   
Panther Bait


Posts: 654
Joined: 8/30/2006
Status: offline 		Nice Job, CR

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:02:43 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I hate when that happens...but it does.

Simply a measure of John trying to juggle three games and save some time on his turn.

Nicely done.




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Post #: 3936
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:29:50 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		I am really waiting for Johns AAR entry.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 3937
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:36:13 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		I may not chanrge John for his next counseling session. This was a big V-8 commercial moment. Duh!!

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Post #: 3938
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:37:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John's work load, family life, and game load are major factors, but his focus on offense (as Bullwinkle noted) is also part of the mix. The two USN DD TFs penetrating to Balikpapan and the near-shore vicinity of Japan over the past three turns without detection are symptomatic. Even though he's distracted and busy, he shouldn't be leaving vast areas unpatrolled. You set up your patrol network and leave it in place with little maintenance required. If you're giving defense any thought whatsoever, that is.

I watched the replay again and then checked all the numbers. He had 20 Tonys at 32k. The B-24s were at 10k. All bomb hits were 500 pounders. As best I can tell, Hiyo was not sunk. She did have at least three bombs penetrate into her interior causing "critical damage." Some of the other smaller carriers had at least one bomb hit with similar reports. But the bigger carrier hits were mostly "flight deck" hit reports.

No unusual numbers of aircraft were lost "on the ground/field," further suggesting that Hiyo is afloat.

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safter port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

What I'll probably do is bring in more B-24s and the few B-17s to Sabang. I'll load up Langsa with B-25Cs. I'll set the 25s at 10k and the heavy bombers at 35k. I might use the P-38G squadron at Sabang (moving it to Langsa for proximity) to sweep. I don't think any other fighters have range, but I'll check.

Any thoughts?

On a separate note, should the fact that John has Tonys at Singapore tell me anything important about the status of his airforce? How good is the Tony? It's been years since I've dealt with those aircraft, so I forget how good they are and when they come online.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/7/2016 7:38:51 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 3939
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:42:40 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I believe in the mod you are playing the Tony gets insanely good, however the first few models are handicapped by high SR and no cl cannons.

It is however, the first armored IJAAF fighter usually encountered and is great for rear area defense, but why at 30K. If those planes were at 10K there would have been very few hits.

I count the latter Tonies as the best bomb killers in the Army arsenal....except for the Frank B which is very difficult to get early.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3940
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:46:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I've been using 4EB in the Burma campaign of late, and nearly always at 30K or thereabouts. I guessing that John took note of that and set his fighters accordingly.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 3941
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:53:28 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.



Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3942
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:54:40 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's work load, family life, and game load are major factors, but his focus on offense (as Bullwinkle noted) is also part of the mix. The two USN DD TFs penetrating to Balikpapan and the near-shore vicinity of Japan over the past three turns without detection are symptomatic. Even though he's distracted and busy, he shouldn't be leaving vast areas unpatrolled. You set up your patrol network and leave it in place with little maintenance required. If you're giving defense any thought whatsoever, that is.

I watched the replay again and then checked all the numbers. He had 20 Tonys at 32k. The B-24s were at 10k. All bomb hits were 500 pounders. As best I can tell, Hiyo was not sunk. She did have at least three bombs penetrate into her interior causing "critical damage." Some of the other smaller carriers had at least one bomb hit with similar reports. But the bigger carrier hits were mostly "flight deck" hit reports.

No unusual numbers of aircraft were lost "on the ground/field," further suggesting that Hiyo is afloat.

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safter port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.

What I'll probably do is bring in more B-24s and the few B-17s to Sabang. I'll load up Langsa with B-25Cs. I'll set the 25s at 10k and the heavy bombers at 35k. I might use the P-38G squadron at Sabang (moving it to Langsa for proximity) to sweep. I don't think any other fighters have range, but I'll check.

Any thoughts?

On a separate note, should the fact that John has Tonys at Singapore tell me anything important about the status of his airforce? How good is the Tony? It's been years since I've dealt with those aircraft, so I forget how good they are and when they come online.

Heartily agree with your plan to double down!
I wonder if John was so over-confident that he put the carriers in Singapore to do upgrades - which should mean they are stuck there until upgrades are done!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 3943
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:58:01 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been using 4EB in the Burma campaign of late, and nearly always at 30K or thereabouts. I guessing that John took note of that and set his fighters accordingly.


That or perhaps just looking for a dive advantage against any sweep attempts.

The first thing I would do as the IJ player is offload all the carrier fighters to the base so they can add to the CAP. If he does that and brings in additional LB fighters he would definitely have an uber CAP.

I agree that you still need to make another run at the port.

If I had a flush pool of B25s I would bring them in at 1000 feet and damn the flak.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 6:59:09 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.



Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.


+1

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:04:44 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So what do I do tomorrow? He may have sent his carriers out of Singers to a safer port, perhaps leaving Hiyo there. He'll ramp up CAP, probably to uber levels. But I've got to give the port another crack just on the chance of getting lucky with another 500 pounder.



Contrary view, FWIW: cash in your chips, take your winnings, and walk away. With his carriers neutralized for a while and more air devoted to Singapore, use your bombers to hit his ground troops in Sumatra, and hit them hard.

Long term, the success of this raid shows how important your position in Sumatra is. The threat or possibility of denying the use of Singapore to him is a game changer. You've got a chance to bring in more reinforcements with much less risk, and much more promise that they will make the difference between losing and holding Sabang.


+1

+2

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 3946
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:15:13 PM   
DW

 

Posts: 161
Joined: 2/14/2008
Status: offline 		This is the second time your heavies have put the hurt on his carriers at a critical juncture in the game.

It happened in your last showdown with John too, when your B-17s forced KB to retire from the waters around northern Japan, allowing your carriers to replenish at Shikuka, and saving your invasion of Sakahlin island.

I follow a fair number of AARs, and yours are the only ones where this ever seems to happen.

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 3947
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:34:01 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		DW has a pretty remarkable memory. What he's referring to is the Invasion of Hokkaido, Sikhalin Island and the Kuriles in November of 1943 in my WitP match with John. That was at least eight years ago. My invasion got on the ground in good shape, but I was hurting. John had responded fully and aggressively. In some kind of last ditch effort, I transfered in a bunch of those naval LIberators - I think to Toyohara, they were PBY4s, or something like that - and set them to naval strike. They hit several enemy carriers. That single event, as DW noted, turned the tide.

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Post #: 3948
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:34:41 PM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Have you been reconing Palembang?

If it appears lightly CAP'd you might get a few TK there?

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Post #: 3949
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:41:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for weighing in with the ground strike idea, gents. Despite the cred of those who suggested it and Plus-Oned and Plus-Twoed it, I'm sticking with the plan to try a port strike, even though the odds are long. Here's why:

1. A single hit on an already damaged carrier might prove decisicve, and a single hit is possible even in an uber CAP environment. Sinking a carrier has immense implications down the road.

2. We have a House Rule against 4EB missions against ground troops in non-base hexes. (I shouldn't have agreed to this; I shouldn't ahve agreed to several of the rules, but I did.)

3. Right now the ground war in Sumatra is a strongpoint for the Allies. So I'd be diverting from a mission that could have strategic implications to one that, at best, would have modest tactical implications.

The mission might be an utter failure, but it's worth a shot.

B-24s (at 32k) and RAF Liberators (at 11k) will fly from Sabang. B-25Cs (at 11k) and P-38Gs will fly from Langsa. It's not going to be a huge raid - I don't have that many bombers available - perhaps 20-25 4EB and perhaps 25-30 2EB.

I considered employing the B25Cs at very low levels (1k as HansBolter suggested), but went with the 11k. But I'll mull that over some more.

By the way, my B25C pools are empty too.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3950
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:42:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Have you been reconing Palembang?

If it appears lightly CAP'd you might get a few TK there?


That's a good idea. I'll save that for a few turns. I'm sure John will think of it and have Palembang capped. But it's worth a shot in a week or so.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 3951
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 7:45:13 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		I admit I wasn't aware of your house rules or their implications. In any case, you're the guy in charge! Good luck with the next raid!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3952
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 9:29:52 PM   
zuluhour


Posts: 5244
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		I was at work when I read the news, that is sure to get into the oompa loompa psych!
KUDOs!

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 3953
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 9:38:48 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Raid Over Singapore. 12 B-24s that made quite an impact on Sumatra Campaign and the war.



Oh, that is bloody brilliant!


+1. And given that the first hit IRL on a Japanese carrier was scored in port by a B-25 during the Dolittle Raid, not gamey at all.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 9:45:20 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for weighing in with the ground strike idea, gents. Despite the cred of those who suggested it and Plus-Oned and Plus-Twoed it, I'm sticking with the plan to try a port strike, even though the odds are long. Here's why:

1. A single hit on an already damaged carrier might prove decisicve, and a single hit is possible even in an uber CAP environment. Sinking a carrier has immense implications down the road.

2. We have a House Rule against 4EB missions against ground troops in non-base hexes. (I shouldn't have agreed to this; I shouldn't ahve agreed to several of the rules, but I did.)

3. Right now the ground war in Sumatra is a strongpoint for the Allies. So I'd be diverting from a mission that could have strategic implications to one that, at best, would have modest tactical implications.

The mission might be an utter failure, but it's worth a shot.

B-24s (at 32k) and RAF Liberators (at 11k) will fly from Sabang. B-25Cs (at 11k) and P-38Gs will fly from Langsa. It's not going to be a huge raid - I don't have that many bombers available - perhaps 20-25 4EB and perhaps 25-30 2EB.

I considered employing the B25Cs at very low levels (1k as HansBolter suggested), but went with the 11k. But I'll mull that over some more.

By the way, my B25C pools are empty too.




For me 32k is a waste of supply and pilot fatigue. 1k would be so disrupted by flak they'd be lucky to hit the hex at all.

I try to keep a formula in mind: five lost 4Es is a lost Fletcher.

But we'll see. I don't remember your HRs on oil bombing, but that's a thing too . . .

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/7/2016 10:45:54 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 10:00:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No strategic bombing until 1944. That was another HR I shouldn't have agreed to.

I think you're right about the B-24s. I may reset them to 20k or 25k.

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Post #: 3956
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 10:17:10 PM   
GetAssista

 

Posts: 2732
Joined: 9/19/2009
Status: offline 		That was a brilliant 12 plane raid, congratulations! Never was so much owed by so many to so few(c)

Luckily you did not have one more house rule preventing 4Es from port attacks

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Post #: 3957
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/7/2016 10:42:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/21/43

Here's the rest of the report on the day's activities:

Raid over Singapore: If you happen to just be checking in, a raid by B-24Ds over Singapore struck paydirt, damaging more than a half-dozen enemy carriers, including Hiyo with a "heavy fires/heavy damage" report. More details on the previous page.

Battle of Sumatra: Some heavy Japanese air raids against Langsa, including a host of Kates (might be carrier squadrons re-based temporarily?). Damage done was light and completely repaired. Langsa is a level four airfield with alot of engineers and aviation support. This will be important for tomorrow's raids vs. Singers.

With the possible window open to bring stuff from India and elsewhere to Sabang, alot of shipping is ready to go (pre-loaded tankers and xAKs will depart Colombo tonight; lots of other shipping will leave a variety of ports all over the place over the next few days). Incoming will be alot of supply, a fair amount of fuel, some AA units, a Carabiner unit (with alot of Stuart tanks), and probably 9th Aussie Division from Aden. I'm also moving forward three AA units from Sabang to Langsa.

What does John do now? Tough puzzle for him to solve. On the ground, he's at least temporarilly blocked south of Langsa. He only has three divisions in the hex. I don't know where the others went. He probably needs six to eight to have a chance here. At sea, he's probably stymied what with KB out of position and possibly damaged for awhile. He can't invade Sabang with it's 960 mines plus ships and aircraft. He might try an invasion of Langsa, but I think that's a tough job what with Allied air and naval power in the vicinity. I'm thinking on that possibility though. The best chance seems to be in the air, so I'll continue to work the fighters as efficiently as I can.

Battle of Burma: John had a good day here. All Allied attacks stymied, including Taung Gyi. John heavily bombed the Chinese unit and air transported in part of 2nd Raiding Regiment. The disruption to the Chinese was high enough to halt the attack. The effort expended here by John tells me he didn't notice the approach of the Chinese and that he doesn't want to lose this base. Most favorable for the Allies was the attack in the hex south of Magwe. This came off at 1:1 and destroyed 94 Jap squads. That's a high number and indicates problems. No attacks slated for tomorrow. The Allied units in that hex are low on supply.

Raiders: The four USN DD raiders that hit Balipapan started their sprint for safety and weren't molested. One is already in the IO and possibly out of danger. The other three will exit the Java Sea by Bimi tonight. Over near Japan, the three USN DD raider TF was lit up by nav search (10/10 detection). This TF was on patrol just four hexes from the Japanese mainlaind! John's licking his chops, so they'll split up and retire by steaming at flank spead NE of Iwo, hoping to make open ocean. The goal of making John attend to defense and to spread out his air a bit is probably met.

(in reply to GetAssista)
Post #: 3958
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/8/2016 4:41:05 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Whoops

Dan thinks he's bad on a computer!

< Message edited by JeffK -- 1/8/2016 5:54:46 AM >

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Post #: 3959
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/8/2016 4:45:17 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I'd recommend against a major Naval effort, get the ground troops into a threatening position and then see whats at Coal Harbour.

Get too pretty with multiple TF & raids and something WILL go wrong.

I think you intend this for JockeMeister's AAR? Coal harbour is not an issue here.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 3960
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