RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis)

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:01:13 PM

timmyab

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Center

The Volga was crossed again this week North of Rshev. This time V corps forced a bridgehead and was fiercely counterattacked by divisions from 30th and 50th armies which again succeeded in driving the Germans back across the river.

2nd PG is in an awkward spot for me because although it appears to be heading for Tula it could easily hook North with potentially disastrous results. Two divisions protecting the Southern flank of 2nd PG are retreated by elements of 3rd and 21st armies so that 2nd PG's supply lines can be attacked. This attack increases the forward pz corps' SP number from 24 to 48 and the rest of the group from 23 to 41. I'm relying on this to take the sting out of them next week but I'm still worried about the hook North because of the ever present uncertainty from HQBU. At one time I seem to remember that you could tell if HQBU had been used because of the bright green fuel indicators but I think that no longer applies. I shall be much happier if 2nd PG continues heading East.

10 arms factories are moved from Tula.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:04:14 PM

timmyab

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South

1st PG captures Kharkov this week by frontal assualt :(( This is a setback for me, not so much because it's a VP location, but more because Kharkov ties the defense together in this sector and can be made a thorn in the Axis side. The city was strongly held by two divisions under Tolbuchin, but they were attacked by superior forces. The usual attacker inflation and defender deflation did the rest.
My priority is to defend the approach towards the Donbass, with 38th (Vatutin) and 16th (Tolbuchin) armies blocking the direct route. The river line to the NE of Kharkov is reasonably well defended, but quite brittle and there is a chance that 1st PG will be able to break through there and get behind 16th army. There are some deep defenses though and as usual cavalry is positioned to attack the flanks if this threat materializes.

Kiev, another VP location, is also assaulted and captured this week.

Further to the South 17th army forced a bridgehead across the Dnepr. True to form this was quickly counterattacked with everything 18th army could throw at it. The result is a little cruel for Bobo. It's particularly so because a reserve cavalry division thrown into the attack probably swung it for us. Anyway the result will hold up 17th army for another week and gives our troops a morale boost.

11th army attacks the Perekop Isthmus but incredibly the three blocking divisions hold, not once but twice :o I expect normal service will be resumed next week. The mech unit behind 11th army is a brigade I think so not very threatening. Famous last words :)

Industry moved
10 arm, 4 HI, 1 IL4

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< Message edited by timmyab -- 2/17/2016 8:07:53 PM >

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:09:21 PM

timmyab

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Turn 12

North

Leningrad is cleared of industry, the last train load left the city this week. Novgorod is captured.
Fanfare....23rd army is now the proud owner of the 1st guards division :))

AGN are still advancing at 10 miles per week. Still no breakthroughs but 4th PG has a lot of potential because the rail head is right next to them so I must be careful. My defense involves getting high CVs in the front line whilst divisions to the rear dig. Just one per hex to avoid routing too many retreating divisions. The higher morale and high TOE ones are in reserve mode.
Of course the great advantage of defending up here is that as you retreat into the wedge formed by the Volkhov and the sea/lake/river to the North your unit density increases and the defense gets stronger and stronger.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:12:12 PM

timmyab

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Center

3rd PG is determined to go North of Rshev. This time in force so there's little to be done except run to the next river line. On the whole I'm happy to see them go that way not least because this turn in particular their SP numbers have risen sharply. The three divisions in Rshev are supplied from the air but I don't expect them to survive the week.
To the North, 5th airborne corps and elements of 11th army block easy access to the Valdai hills. The Germans will have to fight for them.

Further South 2nd PG takes a rest this week. Whether to do HQBU or just to refuel normally I'm uncertain. Either way there's an opportunity to break into the rear from both flanks and isolate the PG so I figure I might as well. Also three HQs are displaced including I think one or possibly both panzer corps HQs. Of course it comes at the price of two more cavalry divisions :(( 3rd army assists by attacking and retreating the German 23rd infantry division.
The Ugra river line is strengthened to three stacks because I'm more afraid of a hook North than I am of a move towards Tula.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:14:21 PM

timmyab

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South

As expected 1st PG does a right turn and heads directly for the Donbas. 38th army did a good job of containing them and next week 1st PG is heading into a river wedge so I'm hoping there will be no breakout next week either. There are some deep defenses just in case.

17th army again attacks and gains a small bridgehead across the Dnepr. 18th army is weaker this week so no CA. In fact I did move most of 18th army to the next river line, but then decided I didn't like the look of it and marched most of them back to the Dnepr again :)) There's a risk that 1st PG could come South through 29th army but I don't mind that so much if it deflects them from the Donbas. Dnepropetrovsk is garrisoned with a division and a brigade under 33rd army.
There's still four turns worth of industry there to move and 15 arms still in Tula so I'm going to lose some for sure. Currently I have 345 arms and 219 HI. I'd like to keep that to at least 300 and 200.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:16:59 PM

timmyab

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Crimea

11th army takes the Perikop isthmus and advances as far as Ishun before a CA drives them back. They have their foot in the door though and this may be the last week 9th army can keep them out.

Industry moved

9 arm, 2 HI, 5 vehicle, 3 T40, 1 U-2VS

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:28:45 PM

timmyab

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Turn 13

North

Yet more grinding.
It's as good as mission accomplished up here. Four more turns before mud so too late to redeploy 4th PG. Leningrad will almost certainly still fall though even if it has to wait for November. The city simply lacks the means of defending itself that it had historically. I'm not sure whether to try anyway or just to put a token garrison in Leningrad and save most of 23rd army. Probably the latter. They've done what was asked of them and I've yet to see Leningrad hold out in an AAR once surrounded.
To give Leningrad a chance to hold out the hex to the East of Pavlova should be swamp and maybe pre-fortified at the start of the game to at least level one. The terrain in that area certainly qualifies for swamp.

Oriniumbuim falls and two divisions are cut off and doomed.

28th army starts what will be a fairly determined defense of the Volkhov river.

To the East of lake Ladoga 7th army is nearly at the Svir river.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:36:31 PM

timmyab

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Center

Rzhev is cleared as expected. 3rd PG doesn't go anywhere but next week they will be fully fueled and rested.
Three options:
1. They could go North (which they seem to like doing) with the intention of making the Valdai hills secure for the winter. I can't really prevent this, but it would at least mean that Moscow is definitely safe. Further North (off screen) the Shlina river is lightly defended to prevent the worst case scenario of 11th army being surrounded (theoretically possible otherwise).
2. They could double back and attack my main line to the South of Rzhev. It would be easy to forget this possibility, but it is still the primary route to Moscow so I must continue to defend it strongly.
3. They could force a crossing of the Volga and continue to push at Moscow from the NorthWest.

I think I would probably do the first option if I was the Axis commander. Time is running short now and I would rather spend that time doing something that is achievable rather than something that probably isn't.

Predictably not much action in 2nd PG's area. My heroic cavalry divisions are not routed out by Bobo which is not all bad news. They continue to disrupt German supply lines and, combined with a counterattack and advance from the North, 2nd PG's SP numbers rise from about 24 to 38. I would guess though that one or both of these pz corps are built up so supply disruption may not be so important.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:39:01 PM

timmyab

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South

1st PG advances 50 miles towards the Donbas this week but it's shortage of infantry support is telling. The consequences of this can be seen in the screenshot. The PG actually looks quite vulnerable in the final position, but it's deceptive, a full scale counteroffensive here would be reckless.
Three separate attacks, the key one being against 14th pz division which is stacked with 3rd and 14th pz corps HQs. In two supplementary attacks two mot divisions are retreated to prevent either of the pz corps HQs retreating into the pocket (in case they are built up) and Grossdeutchland is retreated to break it's ZOC. This counterattack should guarantee at least one more week to rail industry out of the Donbass.

All the arms factories (29) are still in Stalino, but both Tula (15 arm 2 HI) and Kalinin (3 arm 4HI) are threatened so some industry will be lost, it's just a question of how much and which type, where from is unimportant. I'm confident now that I will stay above my target of keeping 300 arm and 200 HI . Even if he locks down all three cities within the next two turns I should still stay just over my target. I will be comfortably over if he doesn't. All assuming there is no last minute disaster in front of Moscow. If Moscow falls or is cut off in Summer 41 all bets are off.

18th army finally gives up the Dnepr river defense and Zaporozhye, which I can't think of a good reason to garrison.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:41:16 PM

timmyab

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Crimea

9th army retreats to the Salagir river. 3rd airborne corps is given the (probably hopeless) task of defending Sevastopol.

Industry moved
8 arm, 5 HI, 1 Mig-3

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:45:14 PM

timmyab

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Turn 14

North

More of the same up here.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:46:31 PM

timmyab

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Center

Interesting developments.
3rd PG chose option 2, doubling back and attacking South of Rzhev. Luckily the base of this penetration was only held by a single motorized division which was easily retreated isolating most of the PG.
North of Rzhev in the Volga bend the German line becomes overextended and realizing there's an opportunity to launch a local counteroffensive Stavka orders an all out attack by all three armies there. One German division is routed and one is surrounded and in need of a rescue operation. The situation is so serious for this division that rescue might not even be possible or at least the operation would derail 3rd PG's push for Moscow.

2nd PG seems to have lost heart and has turned South. I've extended my line South to meet the expected attack on the Oka river line next week. Two of the PG's divisions are isolated by a 3rd army attack which makes me feel a bit more comfortable. I'm expecting Bobo to form some kind of pocket here next week though.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:50:37 PM

timmyab

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South

Once again 1st PG pays the price for it's lack of infantry support. Three separate attacks against the inadequate flank defense opens the gap and the mobility of a cavalry division does the rest. I guess this is the price he's paying for sending 11th army to the Crimea. This must be a bitter blow for Bobo and I expect he is cursing the +1 rule, but I think it does impose some realistic constraints on the Axis player. The real 41 campaign was anything but a cakewalk after all. Actually I don't think any of these attacks needed the +1 rule to succeed as it happens. It's mainly attacker CV inflation that does the trick and of course the Axis get the advantage of that too.

18 arm factories are evacuated from Stalino this week and it looks like I should be able to evacuate most of the remaining Donbas industry next week.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:52:09 PM

timmyab

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Crimea

The forces in the Crimea split in two this week with 4 infantry and 2 mountain divisions heading towards Sevastapol and 8 infantry, 4 cavalry and a para brigade heading for the feodosia bottleneck. The two divisions defending Odessa are shipped out to help out with the Sevasopol defence. I don't see the point of holding on to Odessa any longer. It's only a thorn in the Axis side, it can never be a dagger and these two strong divisions are badly needed in the Crimea.

I did intend to defend further forward here this week but an extensive air recon search for 40th pz corps eventually located it just South of Nikolaev. From there it's just possible for it to get behind a forward defense so I've backed off for that reason.

Industry moved
18 arm

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 7:54:09 PM

sillyflower

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As Bobo predicted at the start: you were able to cut off the panzer blobs many times, and it was a short game.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 8:00:04 PM

timmyab

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OOB

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/17/2016 8:06:31 PM

timmyab

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

As Bobo predicted at the start: you were able to cut off the panzer blobs many times, and it was a short game.

Yes this is his main weakness in an otherwise very good all round game. I recognized his inattention to flank security early on and built my game around it. I'm down 16 cavalry divisions as a result but that's a small price to pay.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/18/2016 4:05:21 PM

sillyflower

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16 more than you need

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/18/2016 6:38:24 PM

timmyab

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Down 'by' not down 'to', but yes point taken :)) If a boxer comes out swinging and lands a knockout in the first round what does he care if he's nothing left for the rest of the fight :)

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/18/2016 8:03:45 PM

RKhan

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I find in my game playing Soviets that I often cut off the mobile spearheads when they get too far ahead. If I understand the supply rules correctly, that essentially means no supplies for that turn even though he is sure to break out. It doesn't take too many lost supply turns to be devastating to his petrol supply.

I also often sacrifice units to ensure that the spearheads must trace supply through ZOC - sometimes more than once. That and a major river can push the supply route over key targets.

I think this approach is working as the German mobile units are well back from where they are in your game. It is interesting to compare as we are on about the same turn.

I don't understand sillyflower's comment on the cavalry divisions. I love them and hate to lose the mobility and ability to wedge myself into the cracks in the German line - but I'm not above the sacrifice to make his supply situation a nightmare.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 1:02:23 AM

timmyab

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You have the same approach as me by the sounds of it. Isolate armor if possible, if not then force it's supply lines through ZOC, across rivers and through marshes.
Keep your cavalry on the flanks of likely penetrations and at low TOE. No point in wasting cavalry elements, it's their mobility that's important not their strength.

I think Silly means that it doesn't matter that I lost a lot of cavalry divisions because the game's over.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 8:14:30 AM

RKhan

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I'm curious about how you seem to split up your armies such that they don't stay in command range of the front. I have been keen to get as many chances for SU allocation as possible, even brining forward STAVKA where it is safe to do so.

Is this simple expediency on your part given the the confused early mix up of Soviet units? Or are you not that bothered?

I'm also curious about the comment that the game is over. Given that the game is almost always going to end in German defeat in a historical sense, what does it mean to be over?

I have held my opponent even further west than you, but we are both noobs and playing German is less forgiving. I expect my less than optimal play is mostly still in the future. I guess I play to win but I have a very situational concept of "win."

I am very envious of your limited counter strikes. I don't have +1 or the experience so I'm stuck defending for now.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 10:37:05 AM

821Bobo

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I must admit that surrendering was a cowardice. I should probably stick with the Soviet side until WitE2.
Regarding my "poor" flank security. It's easy to criticize but Tim always needed at least 1 or 2 successful counter attacks and then unit with enough MPs to cut my spearheads. I am not silly and was aware about the possibility of being cut off. Problem is that the counter attacks were successful all the time. On multiple occasions Tim was able to dislodge whole corps. I am blaming the +1 rule. With +1 good Soviet player knows that the attack will be successful with 100% certainty. Axis player have no such assurance. To counter his expected counter attacks, I had most of the time some units in reserve mode but I got zero activations. Probably because the engine knew it is lost case anyway.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 12:17:17 PM

timmyab

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RKhan I'm curious about how you seem to split up your armies such that they don't stay in command range of the front.

I keep them close if possible but I'm not too worried about it. Most benefits come from a unit's immediate HQ.
Frankly I don't like the senior HQ rules in the game. They're not much more than fluff (imo)

quote:

ORIGINAL: RKhanI have held my opponent even further west than you, but we are both noobs and playing German is less forgiving.

It is easier to play the Soviet side on the whole but as you play more battle hardened Axis players you have to be extremely precise because your defense is only as strong as it's weakest link and a veteran player is sure to find it if it's there. Suddenly your otherwise impeccable defense has got two PGs behind it :) Basically you have to know exactly what the Axis player is capable of. This means that in order to defend against a good Axis player you need to be a good Axis player yourself.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RKhanI am very envious of your limited counter strikes. I don't have +1 or the experience so I'm stuck defending for now.

You don't need +1 for most attacks to succeed. Starting odds of 1.5 to 1 should be enough even without +1. Don't counterattack for the sake of it because you'll weaken your army.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 12:25:06 PM

timmyab

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@Bobo
It certainly is difficult to balance just how hard to push when you play the Axis side. Push too hard and you risk getting cut off, not hard enough and you risk falling behind on a tight schedule.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 1:03:07 PM

chaos45

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+1 for soviets basically = auto game loss for germans under the current patches.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 2:17:45 PM

loki100

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quote:

ORIGINAL: chaos45

+1 for soviets basically = auto game loss for germans under the current patches.

I agree, more than the debate about mild/original winter rules this one is too one-sided at this phase of the war.

My core logic with the Soviets in 1941/2 is that if I can set up an attack at about 1.6-1, I'll win around 90%. The real constraint is if I can cope with the consequence of actually losing which can be deadly in terms of defensive strength. With the +1 rule, this really means if you can set up an attack at .7/.8-1, you have a pretty sure win.

While its true that the German Pzr divisions were badly configured for defensive work, they weren't that vulnerable and the nature of IGOUGO removes much of the command co-ordination problems the Soviets faced in reality.

The problem with no +1 and mild winter is it leads to a weak winter offensive. Less important for terrain recovered, more in terms of creation of Gds formations. But across a longer game that combination seems to work quite well, so ...

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 3:48:09 PM

timmyab

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I'm not convinced of the all conquering power of +1. It's certainly a threat to players that overextend their spearheads, but that's as it should be. If it was an option I would turn it off for the first 24 turns and 75% of my attacks in this game would still have succeeded. Most of the 25% of +1 offenders in this game were not critical attacks anyway, e.g the two pz corps retreats in the North. Those attacks were not critical, just a bonus for me. Same with the attack against the 17th army bridgehead across the Dniper. Not critical, just helpful. Maybe two critical attacks in this game relied on +1 and would not have been tried without it.
+1 is not a game winning rule. The real offensive power of the Soviet armies (and the Axis too) comes from attacker CV inflation. You can almost guarantee x2 or x3. Defenders usually stay at x1 or a little over.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/19/2016 8:52:07 PM

sillyflower

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quote:

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Regarding my "poor" flank security. It's easy to criticize but Tim always needed at least 1 or 2 successful counter attacks and then unit with enough MPs to cut my spearheads. I am not silly and was aware about the possibility of being cut off. Problem is that the counter attacks were successful all the time. On multiple occasions Tim was able to dislodge whole corps. I am blaming the +1 rule. With +1 good Soviet player knows that the attack will be successful with 100% certainty. Axis player have no such assurance. To counter his expected counter attacks, I had most of the time some units in reserve mode but I got zero activations. Probably because the engine knew it is lost case anyway.

I get what you are saying Bobo, but the German has to expect that and adjust his play accordingly. Narrow fingers 2 or 3 hexes wide are always going to be vulnerable in clear terrain and bigger holes need something in the middle of the neck of the thrust to prevent pockets from being possible to create just by knocking back the outer units. If you look at my AAR vs Brian G, you will see that where I didn't/wasn't able to follow these rules, my armour almost always got cut off - and Brian didn't have the +1 advantage.

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RE: Timmyab (Sov) vs 821Bobo (Axis) - 2/26/2016 7:48:44 AM

RKhan

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Any turn updates? Please.

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