RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 5:55:29 PM

Lecivius

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I'm not saying John can't do it. I'm saying it's gonna hurt. And it will. Yes, he is close to his core supply & fuel lines. But he is not hauling the right way. Plus John will be on the offensive in mid 43 trying to maintain the initiative with an amphibious operation. That costs. This is a good thing but it can make his economy come completely off the rails in 45, unless he is pretty careful. Plus Dan has John reacting to him, not the other way around. This can only be a good thing.

I've lost count of Japanese divisions in play. How many would be available for a landing if John goes for broke?

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Post #: 4651

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:01:56 PM

Canoerebel

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I think John has at least 10 divisions in Sumatra. Five of those are currently accounted for on the front lines. So he has at least five available in the immediate vicinity for amphibious operations. And I'm sure he has more than that close by. If he does come, he'll want to bring a great deal. He knows Langsa and Sabang both hold a great many troops. I'm sure he likewise knows that alot of these units are support units. He'll also know there are fighting units and forts involved and that disruption will be an item to contend with. Not to mention stacking limits. I think Sabang is 75k. Langsa is probably the same or less. (I need to check these as that's a serious consideration - he probably can't invade with six divisions if he goes seriously over the stacking limits.)

John said a long, long time ago that this whole thing was like pealing away layers of an onion. That was an apt description.

He also said on the February 15 turn that he could "safely say" that the fate of Sumatra would be decided by March 1. I didn't particularly appreciate that comment at the time but I won't remind him of it. Better to just hunker down and fight and see how long the Allies can drag this thing out. I think the odds of the Allies holding are pretty slim, but I think the odds of holding long enough to matter are pretty high.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:01:58 PM

witpqs

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quote:

I've lost count of Japanese divisions in play. How many would be available for a landing if John goes for broke?

Don't know but I was just thinking that given those 4 units on the west turned out to be 2 divisions (not 4), he has 2 more than previously thought, whatever ones they might be. Interesting times!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:06:42 PM

Canoerebel

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One of those two is 2nd Tank Division. I have the ID of the other in my notes. It's one of the infantry divisions.

SigInt keeps showing 15th Div. inbound to Medan, which would mean at least 11 divisions on the island (five front line, six further back). 15th was at Changsha in early January. So he bought it and has (apparently) committed it to Sumatra. For reasons you readers know, I prefer seeing it go there than Java or New Britian or New Guinea. Sumatra may be a lost cause. But if it is a lost cause it had better be a time-sucking, energy-sucking, resource-sucking, manpower-sucking black hole.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:09:06 PM

poodlebrain

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius
A direct assault via an amphibious operation will also use up a very large portion of his shipping, which in '43 should be better used to feed the war machine. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. And his bonus is long gone. It will hurt, even if it goes flawlessly.

For Japan, even with DBB Limits, there are ample big fast xAP/xAK/AMC/LSD ships available at this stage. I haven't checked to see if the IJN gets additional of these in the mod, but he should have no problem with lift since these are not the ships you use to haul resources/fuel. After the first year mine are mainly hauling units back to defensive positions from forward areas or bringing new units from the HI out. The economy won't be affected even if he needed to haul 6-8 division equivalents, although that would stretch his best options a bit past the limit, most likely.

Not to mention the IJN isn't going to be using them for very long for such an operation and it sits very close to Japanese fuel and supply lines. This isn't like launching a multi division assault deep in the South Pacific.

While all of the above is true, it still requires time to assemble all of the forces necessary to conduct such a massive operation. It would be next to impossible to prevent the Allies from gathering intelligence of an impending amphibious operation of the proposed scale.

Assume for the moment the Japanese can pull off a successful amphibious operation and capture Sabang within the next 30 days. How long will it take the Japanese to eradicate the remaining Allied forces on Sumatra, refit the units on Sumatra, and then redeploy them as needed? The transport shipping for redeploying 10+ divisions and support troops to other forward locations will not be insignificant, nor will be the time and fuel required for the transport. Simultaneously, the IJN will have to stand down for some long deferred maintenance and upgrades to ships that participated in the Battle of Sumatra. If the Japanese desire to use the forces in an offensive capacity, then they will also have to allow preparation time. While this is occurring the Allies' strength will be growing.

I think it okay for the Allies to be more than cautiously optimistic at this point in the game. It will take a catastrophic blunder for the Allies to lose the game. I have confidence Canoerebel will avoid such a blunder given the quality of his play thus far.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:13:23 PM

Canoerebel

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Poodle, thanks for the vote of confidence. As you might imagine, my fond thoughts run very much along the lines you describe - that John faces big logistical hurdles that will take time and use resources. It's probably not nearly that rosy. Things can turn pretty quickly, John might be screaming "Banzai!" for weeks, and then he might be able to move with alactrity to tend to untended matters. But the clock is ticking. The calendar pages are flipping. Things that seemed impossibly far off on January 25, 1943, no longer seem impossibly far off. Or, for that matter, impossible.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:27:34 PM

Canoerebel

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While looking for a point of information pages back, I came across this in the post for the January 26, 1943 turn:

Hunting Grounds: Sumatra is a tough and tight and dangerous place to be right now. Things look increasingly dark, though not yet hopeless. It's January 26, 1943. Keep fighting!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:38:42 PM

Canoerebel

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Stacking limit at Langsa is 55k. Sabang is 95k.

So John could comfortably invade Langsa with four divisions (or is it just three)? I don't think that's enough to pose a credible threat to the base. At least short term. Perhaps over time with bombardments and bombing it would work. Maybe. But that could also just mire down.

Sabang, on the other hand, might hold five divisions (or could he shoehorn in six)? That's enough to pose a credible threat, especially with bombardments and bombing. So I'll make a few tweaks to deployment status. I have 600 AV 100% prepped fully supplied with four forts and SWPac 100% prepped. To offset that, John has been prepping divisions and HQs for quite some time.

So, unless I've made a miscalculation, John's best and perhaps only route to victory within a reasonable time frame is to invade Sabang.

The one thing I like about that is it should mean he'll keep the KB handy to block attacks by the Allied carriers.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/23/2016 6:39:12 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 6:39:32 PM

witpqs

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I also think this operation has been fantastically successful. I'm not suggesting that some sort of failure is imminent, rather I am 'actively reading' (participating in) the AAR and wondering what is going to happen next!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 7:16:53 PM

Lecivius

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Man, a 6 division amphibious assault would be in line with Overlord

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/23/2016 7:46:35 PM

crsutton

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You should have the MK12 mine by now. The route to bombard Sabang is fairly straight forward. Use your subs and plop a few for him to run through on his way to Sabang. I find that if they are in the target base they are all but useless as they never seem the hit a bombardment TF. But if a TF has to run though a minefield-even a small one, then that is a different story. Mk12s are ship killers. They will degrade fast in non base hexes but if he is running almost daily, it won't matter.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 4:48:57 AM

Canoerebel

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4/9/43

Battle of Sumatra: The pattern continues - no enemy ground attacks, no additional troops in the two contested hexes, lots of bombers, and capital ships bombarding both Allied bases.

John must simply be waiting for his invasion force to prep enough to chance an amphibious assault. This may have been his plan all along - just punish through air and sea power while waiting until the time is ripe to strike. That's a pretty good plan - he punishes and, in return, the Allies get some time. But something's going to have to give soon I think. I can't see John letting this continue another month.

KB moved a bit closer to Sabang and 100+ Jills flew ineffective strikes against 1st Marine Div.

It's a tough, challenging, protracted campaign.

SWPac: Peanuts 2 and 3 will reach Capetown in a few days. Peanut 4 will leave Chittagong for Bombay tomorrow. Peanut 1 left Capetown quite some time ago. SigInt over the past few weeks has shown John reinforcing Tabituea, Ocean Island, and Munda with brigade-sized or smaller units, while enemy divisions are at Soerabaja (4th), Rabaul and Lunga. Exmouth is held by a brigade. Enemy ships sighted at some of the islands near Milne Bay. And John is actively looking for further Allied moves in the Ellice Islands (a sub sank a supply xAKL inbound to Vitupu).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 2:15:10 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Man, a 6 division amphibious assault would be in line with Overlord

I got to thinking on this last night (I have no life). This would be huge, vast, overwhelming...

And exactly what John is known for

Let's think on this.

1. He knows he can't come up the east or west side, stacking limits would kill him (as discussed).

2. There are at least 6, and probably more, divisions unaccounted for and at hand.

3. He has the shipping, and the resources, and very close at hand ( I did not think Japan had that much capacity until reading this AAR).

4. He can't leave you here.

5. From his various bombardments, recons, etc, he has a very good idea what you have here, and can plan accordingly.

6. An amphibious attack is brief, and for a short period can discount the stacking limits (many AFB's do it on island assaults).

7. He's running out of time. A long ground campaign is his enemy, and he knows it.

8. John always attacks. Always.

To quote another invasion "They're coming". He has to.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 2:20:22 PM

Canoerebel

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I agree. I've known that was his best shot for months. But it really hit home yesterday when discussing the stacking limits. I'll discuss this more in just a moment.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 2:29:57 PM

Canoerebel

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4/10/43

Battle of Sumatra: More bombardments, a host of bombing, but no sign of imminent large campaign for the contested hex on the east side.

On the west side, a new IJ units is northbound - probably a division that will give John three in this hex. 1st Marines, reinforced by tanks and the picket RCT could hold against three divisions in this terrain, I think, if supply were only reliable. But it alternates - good one turn, bad the next.

So, do I pull back 1st Marines a couple more hexes closer to Sabang, thus perhaps increasing supply and drawing John's units that much closer to Sabang? That, in turn, puts the units closer to the key base if John does elect to massively invade. But it also enhances the possibility that John could combine a ground force with an invasion force, should he be able to blow through the blocking forces on the west road. This is a delicate proposition, because if John does manage to take the hex in battle, the Allied units will probably be badly roughed up.

I'm not sure which way to go yet, but a protracted ground campaign is still preferable to a coup-de-main, assuming it was successful.

KB vs. Death Star: This was a signal day for the US Navy. Saratoga swapped out F4Fs for Hellcats. The Allied carriers will soon move into attack position to seek opportunities should any arise. But, for now, the KB remains close by Sabang, with Jills flying daily bombing missions. (None of John's strike missions are effective against ground troops in jungle terrain, but I think this are supply-usage missions.)

SWPac: A host of assault ships (including AK, AP, and some APA) have moved into theater in recent weeks.

Operation Circus: This could get underway in as soon as 40 days and no later than 60 days.

SoPac: SigInt that an IJ amphibious brigade is inbound to Vitupu in the Ellice Islands. The base was recently taken by about 4 AV from a Marine CD unit. It was meant as no more than a way to draw some of John's attention and assets out to this flank, which I think has been modestly successful.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:17:14 PM

witpqs

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CR,

This is just a snippet of a bit on supply that originated with the developers. Basically, take the supply cost for each hex from the unit in question to the base (from the terrain chart in the manual, see attached below) and subtract them from '100'. Do account for the lesser cost of roads (that's in the chart). The total you are left with determines whether the unit is at short range, medium range, or long range.

quote:

Short range is trace value of 89 - 100 and is used 4 times per week.
Medium range is trace value 49 - 100 and is used 2 times per week.
Long range is trace value 10 - 100 and is used 1 time per week.

Here is the trick: the above are cumulative. So a unit at short range gets a supply 7 days per week (4 + 2 + 1), a unit at medium range gets one 3 days per week (2 + 1), and a unit at long range gets a supply pull 1 day per week.

Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:28:04 PM

Canoerebel

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Interesting. I'll do the exact calculation when I open the game, but my west coast defenders must be at medium range, drawing supply three times a week. The "good road" is a few hexes to the north and would probably put them in range to draw every day.

Conversely, John is dealing with one jungle-rough hex and a bunch of yellow road hexes. He might only be drawing once a week already, but drawing him further up the road could cement that (I'll do that calculation too).

So it may make sense for 1st Marines to retire to the gray road (and I believe there is a jungle-rough gray road about three or four hexes SW of Sabang). They can probably fight more reliabably and effectively longer than further down the road, meaning the actual defense of Sabang would be more protracted.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:37:58 PM

paullus99

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I agree that a tighter perimeter makes it easier for you to defend from multiple axis....given John's propensity for the "coup de main" it doesn't really make sense to me that he'd continue to push for a protracted campaign fighting overland - especially since it would just push your troops back to Sabang anyway.

An amphibious assault is the only thing that makes sense, since it is the only thing you "can't" see coming.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:40:48 PM

Canoerebel

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The one drawback to retreating a bit (to get closer to reliable supply, as explained above) is that it opens up the possibility that John could then cross the island to sever the road between Langsa and Sabang. This would take time, and I should be able to move to block it, so it's not a major concern.

I'm leaning towards starting 1st Marines up the road (in combat mode, so it'll take awhile) while leaving the picket RCT and the tanks right where they are, at least temporarily.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:43:53 PM

witpqs

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When it comes to holding Sabang, Langsa is a distraction for you.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 3:51:26 PM

Mike McCreery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

When it comes to holding Sabang, Langsa is a distraction for you.

If he pulled out of Langsa wouldnt it give John just one area to focus on rather than two?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 4:03:15 PM

paullus99

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Probably not a bad idea to have both....but obviously, if you lose Sabang, you lose the campaign anyway.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 4:53:22 PM

Canoerebel

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Right now Langsa is very helpful. It creates a defense in depth, it's strongly held, and it divides John's attention. He has to stay on his toes (a bit) to keep both airfields suppressed. He already slipped once in doing so, resulting in effective Allied air strikes against enemy shipping at Sinabang. And it just creates a more menacing appearance, so that the campaign seems bigger and the Allied lodgement more menacing. If John takes Langsa, suddenly the Allies look like they're facing a Dunkirk, and perhaps John enters a wind-down phase. I don't want that. I want him fully engaged. I want 10 divisions tied down. And I want the KB posted in that blocking position as long as possible.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:02:27 PM

Canoerebel

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Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:08:49 PM

Mike McCreery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

You have done everything you can to prepare.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:22:11 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

If they are 100% prepared - and that's a big 'if': my middle name is Clueless

- they will not be badly disrupted due to landing. The length of time they spend in ships and the type of ships will factor greatly in how disrupted they are. I don't know what the mod holds, but generally after the amphib bonus is gone Japan has mostly ships that will cause disruption to amphibiously loaded troops.

However the stacking limits might not hinder recovery as much as it sounds like you think. The degere of over stacking matters a whole lot. 110% of the limit? Nothing. 150%? A little. 200%? Some for sure, but not horrible. 300% (200% over the limit)? Under very good conditions (which he will have) you would have trouble getting some units below the teens % in disruption. Supply consumption far higher than usual. Might not pay to go that high, but would he have to? BTW the level of supply on hand figures greatly in troop recovery. If he knows that he will bring plenty.

My AAR has a number of island/atoll invasions where the stacking limit made a difference and was discussed.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:33:55 PM

HansBolter

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I beg to differ a bit on the overstacking issue.

I THINK factors such as terrain type and relative scale may have impacts here that I can't quantify well.

I have had a siege going on a city in Manchuria for about 3 months wherein I initially overstacked 75K troops in a 55K limit hex.

I had such serious trouble recovering disruption and fatigue after deliberate assaults, stretching out interminably the duration between assaults that I eventually relived the overstacking and can now attack about every 7 days instead of every two weeks.

20% overstack on a 6K limit atoll is negligible.

20% overstack on a 55K limit city in a woods hex is not negligible.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 2/24/2016 5:34:39 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:45:26 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

I beg to differ a bit on the overstacking issue.

I THINK factors such as terrain type and relative scale may have impacts here that I can't quantify well.

I have had a siege going on a city in Manchuria for about 3 months wherein I initially overstacked 75K troops in a 55K limit hex.

I had such serious trouble recovering disruption and fatigue after deliberate assaults, stretching out interminably the duration between assaults that I eventually relived the overstacking and can now attack about every 7 days instead of every two weeks.

20% overstack on a 6K limit atoll is negligible.

20% overstack on a 55K limit city in a woods hex is not negligible.

Jump into my AAR & let's discuss the (former) situation at Lang Son, with ~100% over stacking (~200% of limit). I say jump in there only so the discussion can include opsec sensitive items.

Also, the context here is an invasion with a relatively short-term of battles after (if the sledgehammer was used to swat the fly, so to speak). I agree that over stacking does matter and matters a lot, both strategically and tactically. For a limited time and if enough supply is provided, it can be endured when needed.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 5:47:22 PM

Canoerebel

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Since Sabang is close to John's ports of embarkation, time in transit shouldn't be a problem. Neither should supply.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/24/2016 6:15:12 PM

Lecivius

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I admittedly don't know enough about Japanese amphibious operations mid war. That said, he is putting all his chips on the table in this. I don't think 500 AV behind lvl 4 forts is gonna be enough. And you might not get more than a day to react.

It sure as heck would (and will) give me ulcers. And it's not even my game!

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