Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
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One of the perils every player must contend with is Victory Disease. We all have a general idea as to what it is: the idea that, after a victory or series of victories, further success is almost inevitable so that we let down our guard or forget to take the precautions necessary to avoid defeat and disaster.
Nearly every writer of an AAR is accused, from time to time, of suffering from Victory Disease. It can be a particularly noxious accusation, for oftentimes it's leveled by casual readers who are not fully aware of all the thinking and planning and precautions that went into the plan that went awry.
The Allies are about to engage in a new offensive operation. Since it follows so closely on the heals of Operation Circus, which I think has been fabulously successful, the setting is ripe for Victory Disease or accusation of Victory Disease. So I wanted to address my thinking as I transition from Circus to Roller Coaster.
The Allies have not become sufficiently powerful yet to meet Steriod KB head on. But the Allies are powerful enough to move strongly in less hostile environments, and failing to take advantage of favorable conditions would be counterproductive.
At present, at least seven Japanese BBs and a Mini KB are confirmed posted near Sabang, and a strong Half KB is posted in the Aluetians. This means that the Allies can achieve local superiority by concentrating elsewhere (if I am able to move under the current conditions), which is the plan behind Roller Coaster.
There of course is danger here. John will have interlocking bases with airfields, so enemy strike aircraft are a threat. At the moment, though, the enemy should be at a sizeable disadvantage in surface combat assets, and I don't think there is a concentration of IJ subs in the Roller Coaster area of operations. The Allies will target at least four bases and perhaps as many as seven. If successful, I'll then have my own interlocking network of bases in a position that threatens the flank of major Japanese bases to the southwest and which opens up CenPac to future moves.
We're about to transition into a new phase of the war (though, as any player knows, a defeat or major losses might setback the clock for months). In '42 and well into '43, it's very helpful to essential for the Allies to utilize suprise to attain temporary superiority of numbers at any point of attack. At some point in mid or late '43, however, the Allied OOB is strong enough that surprise, while still beneficial, is no longer critical. The Allies at that point can simply plan well, combine all available forces, and hit the enemy directly and hard. In that situation, using valuable time or bleeding off the assets needed to create feints required to achieve surprise can be counterproductive.
Barring major losses, I think Roller Coaster will be the last "early war" operation that requires surprise. If suprrise is achieved, the operation is worthwile and should succeed, and the risk is worth it. After Roller Coaster, the Allies may soon have enough power to face the enemy head on, as is the plan with Operation Carnival and the invasions of the remaining IJ bases in the Aleutians.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/29/2016 4:54:28 PM >
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