Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've noted the reports of enhanced AA effect as Moose and crsutton point out. And I've seen evidence of that in this game, espeically from ground AA, but also in the few ship actions versus strike aircraft.

One Forumite (he probably wouldn't mind me crediting him, but I don't want to put words into his mouth) pointed out the KB may be a one-shot wonder; that so many strike aircraft would be lost on the opening day of a great naval-air battle that it would be crippled thereafter. That sounds pretty plausible to me (as supported by crsutton's battle report posted just above).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


In the south, Makin should be lightly held, Baker is garrisoned but probably not to the teeth, and Tarawa should be a tough nut, but gets a full division and combat engineers.

In my Loka game my recollection is Tarawa was my "crack the nut" island in the region. Cost me Lexington, but it got done. He had keyed on Tabithea (sp?) which is IMO the correct move defensively. It's a great base to hold on either side. Roi Namur and Kwaj are similar to Dutch and Umnak--you need both to cover air and naval. The sizes are complimentary, but neither is a complete base package. Tabi is both, and it's in a great geographic location for many other after-moves.

If I've truly gotten the drop on John again, catching his carriers up north, then I think I'll be able to come out with what I need to make the effort worthwhile. But the main objective is to persuade John to react strongly (hence having Ponape as a wild card) so that he sends Kaigun and KB sprinting south. Then Allies will switch back north and move on Amchitka and later on Attu. I don't like moving into a concentration of forces. Right now, John has alot of firepower up north, including a host of subs. I think (but I'm not positive) that CenPac is pretty open. I've had a line of pickets ships stretching from Midway to northwest of Marcus (and not really very far from Chichi Jimi). Those ships have been sitting out there for weeks undetected. Some of them are quite close to Marcus and Wake. So I think John has been focusing on NoPac.

In 20 days, two more Essex class arrive. At that point, I'm willing to commit Death Star to a contested action for Amchitka. In the interim, I'd like to see John dashing about wildly. I don't mind if Roller Coaster isn't a smashing success as long as I don't suffer a big carrier battle defeat. But there's a risk of that happening.

IMO the Aleutian chain doesn't need any more of your carriers, and is not great carrier water in general due to the tunnel effect E-W and the blind spots up toward Nome. With 2E and your new fighters you can bleed him on supply to the point the other islands are shells. Not as fast, but you have better uses for your big decks.

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yes, and the AA is deadly. Viberpol and I just had a major carrier fight near Chittagong in lousy weather, and the results were scary. 700-800 total plane losses and I lost two SCs. He might have lost a CVL. Due to clouds the bulk of his aircraft went after my BB task force at Chittagong. Look what my two modern BBs did to his Judy's. He hit me a dozen times and messed up the upper decks a bit but look what the costs were. You AFBs better not delay those upgrades..

I think this is why it no longer pays the Japanese player to conserve his carriers until the end game. If it were me I would want to force a carrier fight as soon as possible.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Yes, and the AA is deadly. Viberpol and I just had a major carrier fight near Chittagong in lousy weather, and the results were scary. 700-800 total plane losses and I lost two SCs. He might have lost a CVL. Due to clouds the bulk of his aircraft went after my BB task force at Chittagong. Look what my two modern BBs did to his Judy's. He hit me a dozen times and messed up the upper decks a bit but look what the costs were. You AFBs better not delay those upgrades..

I think this is why it no longer pays the Japanese player to conserve his carriers until the end game. If it were me I would want to force a carrier fight as soon as possible.

Loka and I have not had a decisive carrier battle, mostly because I keep running away. After one of the battles we have had he commented that the AA changes make IJN air wings one-shot assets. The super-BBs of 1944-45 are monster AA bases.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Moose, the purpose behind the Aluetians campaign going forward will be to goad/lure John into a big naval battle. My assessment is that John is hurting for capital ships (BBs and CAs), which means every loss he takes is critical now. But I want to give a bit of thought as to when to time a carrier battle. I think John may be entering a bit of a lull in carrier production. Those three Shokaku class are relatively recent arrivals. The next group do by date is Katsuragi, Amagi, etc. I don't know how fast John can expedite their delivery. But it would make sense to time a carrier battle before they arrive and after most of the next group of USN carrier reinforcements arrive.

But, bottom line, I don't have to have anything in the Marshalls or Gilberts or Aleutians. If I get them at a reasonable cost, great. But the primary goals are (1) force John to react expensively (in terms of fuel) and (2) efficiently attrit Japan's navy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree that Tabituea is the plum of the area for Japan. I think it's strongly garrisoned, and I think it can be outflanked if the Allies get a strong lodgement in the Marshalls. I also think John is wired to react strongly - he's a navy guy, he always reacts violenty to incursions on his main line of defense, and it's early enough that he hasn't transitioned to a defensive mindset. So I think this will trigger him, creating more opportunities for friction.

Another aspect is the pending conclusion of the Sumatra campaign. John will have 10 divisions and seven BBs available for duty elsewhere. I'd prefer to draw him to the Pacific, where I've concentrated my forces for action the rest of the year.

And I'm losing those seven divisions in Sumatra. That makes a big land-mass campaign much more difficult. So, rather than fighting in Java or New Guinea, I've chosen an island-heavy campaign.

These are just a few of the many reasons I've chosen this course of action. The question now is whether I've correctly read John and his naval dispersion as creating a good opportunity. I'll know soon.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Moose, the purpose behind the Aluetians campaign going forward will be to goad/lure John into a big naval battle. My assessment is that John is hurting for capital ships (BBs and CAs), which means every loss he takes is critical now. But I want to give a bit of thought as to when to time a carrier battle. I think John may be entering a bit of a lull in carrier production. Those three Shokaku class are relatively recent arrivals. The next group do by date is Katsuragi, Amagi, etc. I don't know how fast John can expedite their delivery. But it would make sense to time a carrier battle before they arrive and after most of the next group of USN carrier reinforcements arrive.

But, bottom line, I don't have to have anything in the Marshalls or Gilberts or Aleutians. If I get them at a reasonable cost, great. But the primary goals are (1) force John to react expensively (in terms of fuel) and (2) efficiently attrit Japan's navy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Moose, the purpose behind the Aluetians campaign going forward will be to goad/lure John into a big naval battle. My assessment is that John is hurting for capital ships (BBs and CAs), which means every loss he takes is critical now. But I want to give a bit of thought as to when to time a carrier battle. I think John may be entering a bit of a lull in carrier production. Those three Shokaku class are relatively recent arrivals. The next group do by date is Katsuragi, Amagi, etc. I don't know how fast John can expedite their delivery. But it would make sense to time a carrier battle before they arrive and after most of the next group of USN carrier reinforcements arrive.

But, bottom line, I don't have to have anything in the Marshalls or Gilberts or Aleutians. If I get them at a reasonable cost, great. But the primary goals are (1) force John to react expensively (in terms of fuel) and (2) efficiently attrit Japan's navy.

quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

What would be the goal of a Japanese offensive in CBI? Banzai!!! Any economic benefits would be limited. Would such an offensive induce the Allies into a major fleet action that would have a better than average chance to be of decisive benefit to the Japanese? Banzai!!! I don't think so.

I was expressing my opinion that the resources freed up after the Battle of Sumatra would be better allocated to defending positions critical to the Japanese Empire. This is especially true for the naval forces. Their ability to project power is in decline, and attempts to project power would expose them to unacceptable risk. However, their ability to deny the Allies from projecting power is still extant, and that is a better use for them.