Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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7/16/43
Roller Coaster: Maloelap fell today on a 2:1 shock attack (the defenders there had some kind of mojo or moxie or something). The operation is winding down now - all eight primary targets have been secured, the Allied position is strong, and all ships have broken contact and are well en route to Pearl Harbor or already there.
Enemy subs are still lurking, and plenty of Allied ships are still at sea, so there may be additional losses. In particular, I have my eye on two damaged APA (one heavily, one moderately), hoping that they can limp home safely. Four Allied capital ships were damaged by single torp hits: CA Indianapolis is in the yards at Pearl and needs about 27 days to repair; BB South Dakota is too, and needs 90+ days. Washington will arrive in a few days and shouldn't need a great deal of time; BB Resolution suffered moderate damage and will probably require something on the order of SD's work.
This op was not without cost: I lost CA Portland, an APA, two AO, and two DE. Those were the most costly losses and will be missed the most. There were also a modest number of xAP, xAK, and other small craft. I did not lose any men or aircraft to speak of.
In return, the Allies took eight enemy bases, including three or four with shore guns (Jaluit, Wotje, Mili, and I think Ailinglaplap or Maloelap had them). The garrisons were not particularly strong - Tarawa with two naval guard units was the stiffest. Altogether, John might have lost 20k men. He only lost a couple of small craft and I think five or six subs suffered heavy damage.
John's greatest cost was in aircraft - he lost 500+, mainly Zeroes, Judys, Jills, Kates and Netties. The Allies lost less than 50 - maybe considerably less (and most of those to ops).
To my way of thinking, the Allies successfully and at an most acceptable investment made the important opening leap across open water to encroach upon John's defensive perimeter. I now have a strongly held position close to additional important enemy bases. This opens up good possibilities for future attacks that don't require moving deep into enemy territory. The Allies also have multiple vectors of attack avaialbe - south towards the Solomons and adjacent territory, west towards Ponape and Truk, or northwest to Wake and Marcus. The closer targets - Kawj, Roi, Eniwetok and Kusaie - will be hit, probably relatively soon.
Ross made the point that the Marshalls and Gilberts are not intrinisically vital ground. But they can be. First, any terrrain anywhere can become critical if one or both sides deem it so. In this case, if John is willing to fight hard over his remaining Marshalls holdings, the terrain is de facto critical. I think he will, but he may also pull back, in which case the Allies move forward in small steps until eventually John does fight. That's a viable path to victory, I think.
Importantly, Roller Coaster served me well because it worked so well in tandem with Circus. I was able to move rapidly from one theater to the next (Circus landings began in late May, Roller Coaster in late June) before John could bring his battewagons to bear (they were still committed in Sumatra). And I was fortunate that I knew the exact location of Half KB North throughout the campaign and had a strong (and I think accurate) idea that the other Half KB was in port upgrading. Roller Coaster would not have gone forward into the unknown. Instead, I would have waited another eight weeks, when Death Star would have been ready to take on the unknown.
Now, instead of leading a big amphibious op into a nest of enemy held islands, Death Star will lead a big amphibious op into a concentration of friendly islands to pick off vulnerable (though dangerous) enemy bases. The difference in risk level is enormous.
So, yes, Roller Coaster has been remarkably successful.
Circus: Unless John bombards Adak tonight, forts will go to level four. The Allies are about ready to insert the Fletcher TF there and then to re-load the airfield to resume working on Amchitka Island (whcih has been reinforced). At the moment, I'm leaning towards returning to the Marshalls prior to moving on Amchitka, but I'm not positive.
Dutch Harbor garrison down to 38k. I'm pulling out one USN base force and I'll pull out a few more AA units, and then Dutch can stand on its own without overstacking worries. The port is currently at 4.54. It will be built to six (with an AE and Naval Support, that should be sufficient for replenishing even BB main guns). Then I'll build the 0(0) airfield to level one.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/14/2016 4:37:39 PM >
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