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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 1:06:43 PM   
ny59giants


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quote:

A PBY-Recon unit assigned to recon Truk tomorrow


I would have these long range recon planes active from Gilberts over to western Australia just to keep John guessing. Find a base lightly defended and send in 48 B-24s to wake him up and shifting assets.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 1:16:42 PM   
Flicker

 

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CR - I enjoy reading your AAR, thank you.

Looking at the map you posted I notice that you don't seem to have much of a sub presence off the southern coasts of Japan to Okinawa and Taiwan. Is there a prohibitive ASW presence? Does John use those sea lanes?

I like Option #3 - clean up the Aleutians and Marshalls, then move on New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and the Solomons, with an eye on Port Moresby. Not sexy, but it builds on your strengths and current success. I also like fighting the land war in Asia (contra Vizzini since Allies are Asia and you've got a strong position in China), so taking Rangoon and opening the road to China might help keep Japan busy (if you've got the troops after Sabang).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 1:16:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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John is attending to the Solomons and points west. Kaiving airfield went to level one a few days back; SigInt has ships inbound to Aitape on the New Guinea coast. Lots of recent SigInt of divisions bound for Saipan. Etc.

I'm using recon to probe a bit, but to this point the main function has been to keep tabs on the big airfields at Tabituea, Kusaie, Ponape, Kwaj, Roi-Namur and Eniwetok. I've wanted to keep tabs on whether John is reinforcing or drawing down the forward bases and whether combat ships or carriers are inbound. I have enough information now so that I can divert a squadron from time to time to probe deeper for info or to get John thinking. Hence the mission to Truk.

John should have become accustomed by now to the idea that I have a history of striking deep in unexpected, non-reconned areas. Yet, I think he does respond sharply to recon missions.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/21/2016 1:18:20 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 1:25:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker

CR - I enjoy reading your AAR, thank you.

Looking at the map you posted I notice that you don't seem to have much of a sub presence off the southern coasts of Japan to Okinawa and Taiwan. Is there a prohibitive ASW presence? Does John use those sea lanes?

I like Option #3 - clean up the Aleutians and Marshalls, then move on New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and the Solomons, with an eye on Port Moresby. Not sexy, but it builds on your strengths and current success. I also like fighting the land war in Asia (contra Vizzini since Allies are Asia and you've got a strong position in China), so taking Rangoon and opening the road to China might help keep Japan busy (if you've got the troops after Sabang).



1. For most of the game, Allied subs were very active south of Japan and in the South China Sea. But I drew most of them off two months ago as Circus got underway. In part this was because John was giving a lot more attention to ASW in those regions, but mainly it was because I knew KB and Kaigun would be posted in narrowly defined regions - Aleutians and Marshalls. So most subs are now patrolling between the Aleuts and Japan, on the one hand, and in CenPac, on the other. The CenPac concentration will move between KB and Truk if and when there's a big carrier battle.

If the ops in the Marshalls and Aleutians are successful, the Allies will move west and north in CenPac. This fall, Wake, Marcus, Eniwetok and Ponape will be targeted. Then Truk.

A primary objective is going to be to take John's primary ports. So Rabaul and Babeldoab are on the list for late in the year or more likely early '44.

The Allies will not move south from the Marshalls to New Caledonia, et al. Rather, these areas will be rendered no longer viable by the main westward movement. Then, as John draws down his garrisons (this will be inevitable unless the Allies lose a carrier battle), "mop-up" amphib ops from Oz and New Zealand will move north. That's why the East African division is in Australia and prepping for Noumea.

In my WitP game versus John, he took nearly all Australia and held it in a hammerlock well into '43. But when I invaded Hokkaido in great strength it rendered Oz irrelevant. John had to withdraw his entire army from Oz post-haste. He did so too. That's what we're looking at here, though in a more gradual sense. John will be pleased to extract troops from exposed forward positions, feeling that he's succeeded in Dunkirk-type missions, preserving his army to fight another day. But that coin has two sides. I can't fight everywhere. So I want to use the threat of outflanking to persuade John to retire.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 2:06:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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While hoping for victory in a carrier battle, I'm also allowing for the possibility of defeat.

In that case, Allied offensive operations will slow for awhile and the new bases in the Aluetians and Marshalls would have to stand against counterattacks.

The Aleutians are ready. All troops have been redistributed and forts, garrisons and supply are good. John could pick off a few of the weaker or more exposed bases - Ulak and Atka being the most likely - but he's not going anywhere meaningful here.

The Marshalls and Giblerts are another matter. These bases have good garrisons and good forts now, but several bases are overstacked and supply is an issue at more than half the bases. So a major part of the upcoming operation will be defensive in nature. While the invasion of Roi-Namur is underway with the attendant possibility of a carrier clash, I'll also be retrieving excess troops and bringing in alot more supply.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 2:41:44 PM   
Flicker

 

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Your list of targets could point to Luzon. Does John use Manila as a primary port? Or would Manila be even farther away than a bridge?

Can you comment on your thoughts regarding Burma / China? My impression is that you can't support large amphibious operations in the DEI for awhile and that you're kind of strapped for troops to push on Burma. Has John reinforced Burma enough to threaten your 'Imphal' line (for want of a better term).

Are you still thinking about Java or did Sumatra wreck that idea? Where are those Ozzie divisions :)

John's mod seems to beef up everything... Does he get a significant increase in LCUs?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 2:52:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't think Reluctant Admiral beefs up LCUs. IE, I don't think John gets the four extra divisions that come with Scenario 2.

Luzon is something I'm looking at, though its probably a year down the road. Events and cirucmstances could well change the ultimate "big move" target.

I'm working hard in Burma, Assam and China to shore up defenses on the possibility that John might use his Sumatra Victory Dividend (all the troops freed up for use elsewhere). The Assam coast is strongly held. The Imphal line would be vulnerable to a major overland campaign, but I'd have plenty of notice and could shore up the defenses. If John showed signs of moving in strength overland against Imphal or vicinity, my first thought would be that he's trying to draw troops there in order to then invade NE India to cut them off.

There are risks for me in India right now, but I think I'd like to see John do something that has the potential to turn into a Tar Baby for him.

Right now I don't have the shipping or the troops to engage in amphibious operations (or any offensive operations) in SEAC or the DEI the short term. In the long term, of course, that will change.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/21/2016 2:55:36 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 3:33:13 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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quote:

I'm working hard in Burma, Assam and China to shore up defenses on the possibility that John might use his Sumatra Victory Dividend (all the troops freed up for use elsewhere).
I would love to see you re-invade Sumatra, but farther south around Padang and the barrier islands off the west coast of Sumatra. John would have to commit the IJN to the Indian Ocean in order to prevent you from reinforcing and building bases from which you could establish air superiority over oil centers vital to the Japanese economy and war effort. Without a significant Japanese victory at sea, the 2nd Battle of Sumatra would require the Japanese to fight another land campaign in terrain that is worse for them than the 1st Battle of Sumatra.

Just think how much pleasure you would get from exploiting a weakness caused by his attempt to exploit the Sumatra Victory Dividend? It would provide years worth of trash talk material, and render bragging rights from the 1st Battle of Sumatra moot. It would be your "I shall return" moment.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 4:34:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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8/3/43

What? Where? John sent me this cryptic note with the turn: "See whatever you can make of this turn." This suggested that something a bit unusual (but not dramatic or decisive) had happened somewhere. I figured someting like a bunch of TFs bumping into each other and declining to give battle, or the like. So I watched the Replay carefully and didn't see anything out of the ordinary. So then I think, 'Hmmm, perhaps that recon of Truk caught KB in port." I open the file to check. Nothing. So then I scour the map for evidence that a Japanese TF or massive body of troops has suddenly appeared deep behind my lines or something. Nothing.

You want to drive a player crazy? Ask him a vague question when there's nothing to be found. I've scoured the map and I'll keep scouring. But I don't see anything.

Then I saw the title to his latest AAR post: "Knife Fight." So I think, "Perhaps a sync bug hit and I missed something." So I return to the map and look for evidence of a naval battle or a big dogfight somewhere. Nothing.

What in the WORLD is John talking about?

Circus: The only engagement of note on the entire map was a Netty bombing strike on Adak, which was a useless exercise. In return for four hits that were immediately repaired, John lost 10 Netties to flak. Okay, a small victory for the Allies. But that's the kind of little affair that happens a zilliion times during a game. Not something that leads to a "see what you can make of this" comment.

Roller Coaster: No clashes here today, which is exactly what I wanted. That xAK/xAP TF at Jaluit does a great job of loading two units, wieghs anchor, and makes Mili in a single turn. Of course, now it has to make it to Pearl, and that's a long journey. But the garrison at Jaluit is reduced from 20k to 15k, which is a big step in the right direction (the stacking limit is 6k). Another xAK TF unloaded some supply at Mili. But it will cease and move over to Jaluit.

Elsewhere: Nothing seems to be amiss anywhere. So what this about a "Knife Fight" and "see whatever you can make of this."?


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 4:40:08 PM   
witpqs


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Tell him you saw nothing and ask if it was a sync bug???

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 4:48:58 PM   
zuluhour


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Maybe try:
"Hory Crap!!!, I can't believe it!"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 5:05:08 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Maybe try:
"Hory Crap!!!, I can't believe it!"


Head games!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 5:08:38 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Maybe try:
"Hory Crap!!!, I can't believe it!"


Head games!

Yeah, I like his idea better!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 5:32:22 PM   
ny59giants


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+1

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 5:55:34 PM   
obvert


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I like;

"You'll have to do better than that!"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 7:24:11 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I like;

"You'll have to do better than that!"

Good one.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 9:12:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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Perhaps John is referring to NavSearch finding some kind of carrier TF at Rabaul. I saw this the first time I looked at the map this a.m. - the report is a "CVE CA" there. Not a big deal and subject to error. Besides, I"ve had recon on Rabaul many, many times in the past six months. So this shouldn't have come as a shock to John.

In rescouring the map today for whatever might have prompted John to write that email comment, I took another look at that TF. Mouseover shows 55 Fighters, 77 Bombers. That's a big enough presence to suggest this is a fairly stout carrier TF.

Still an odd comment for John to make. I've known the whereabouts of his carriers for most of the game. I'd lost track of them for the past two or three weeks, but my hunch would've placed them at nor near Truk. So there's no great mystery revealed here.

Unless John has something else in mind.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 9:17:31 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Unless John has something else in mind.

Thus the head games to tease John into revealing more!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/21/2016 10:29:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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Speaking of Knife Fights: In planning for Operation Thin Man, I've had to assume that John will react violently with combat ships, carriers and LBA. And I think there's a decent chance that he'll pull the trigger in thinking that the odds may only get worse.

But I think there's a decent chance - at least 50/50 - that John won't pull the trigger to protect Roi-Namur and Kwaj. He may conclude that the environment isn't favorable enough. He may instead hope that subs (and maybe mines and aircraft) can attrition Allied ships so that he'll be in a better position when I venture out further, such as for Ponape.

So, I'm planning for the all-out knife fight in the Marshalls, but something very different wouldn't be a surprise.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 5:50:22 AM   
1275psi

 

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I think he is getting games mixed up with his turns
lots o knife fights in my game against him

following this aar very very closel

man am i sick of banzia

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 5:59:09 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: 1275psi

man am i sick of banzia


It does seem like rubbing salt in the wound!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 5:59:15 AM   
Canoerebel


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We can form Brothers of the Banzai!

I know that I'm a member. Michael (NYGiants) is a member. I think Cribtop would be a member. And I believe Cap Mandrake would be a member. Few might remember that a long, long, long time ago, Cap and John III squared off. I recall something going awry for Cap in the vicinity of Port Moresby, leading to multiple Banzai!s Even the ever-patient Cap got kinda tired of it.

But it makes revenge all the sweeter. Some time, if you'd like, I can tell you how to tell when John is pissed off. In fact, I'll share some now. If you received an email to this effect: "Here you go, SIR." It means something bad happened to him somewhere. If he simply says, "Yours." Ditto. When things are going well for him, he's effusive in his warmth. When things are not going well for him, he's distant, abrupt, etc.

That's just John. He wears his emotions on his sleeve.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/22/2016 6:00:54 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 10:30:41 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But it makes revenge all the sweeter. Some time, if you'd like, I can tell you how to tell when John is pissed off. In fact, I'll share some now. If you received an email to this effect: "Here you go, SIR." It means something bad happened to him somewhere. If he simply says, "Yours." Ditto. When things are going well for him, he's effusive in his warmth. When things are not going well for him, he's distant, abrupt, etc.

That's just John. He wears his emotions on his sleeve.


In this game (assuming he's holding that rabbit's foot tight) he's still going to have to get used to sending about 300 more "Here you go, SIR" notes and another 200 "Yours." If he's also wearing his lucky socks he might be able to get in about 30-40 "BANZAI!"

It's the 5 "BANZAI!!!" he's sure to use that you'll just have to endure. The BotB virtual support meetings should help.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 11:57:29 AM   
Encircled


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Maybe he's seen all the hits on the AAR recently and assumes that you are on the verge of something and is testing the water, via the medium of questioning e-mail?

He's not to know that its been pages and pages on the correct way to say "You lot"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 1:13:17 PM   
Mike McCreery


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Why dont we do another 5 pages on the origin of belly button lint and drive him really crazy? :]

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 1:29:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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These are all good ideas. Keep posting so that we can drive him to distraction.

Correction: rather than Brothers of the Banzai!, it should of course be: Brotherhood of the Banzai!

And, in honor of Greyjoy, we can also have: Brotherhood of the Bushes.

We can also have: Brotherhood of the Shades.

And: Brotherhood of Scoodra.

All of these will make for good conversation that should vex John unendingly.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 2:28:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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8/4/43

No explanation from John about his email comment yesterday.

Roller Coaster: What looks like a strong combat TF is inbound to the Marshalls. I'm clearing out my ships, including the Fletchers, and have pulled back my forward aircraft. The target is probably Ailinglaplap or Jaluit.

Supply at Jaluit is at 19k and not getting sucked down as quickly now that the garrison's been drawn down a bit.

Wasp and Lex ready in 8 days. 18th Canadian Brigade 15 hexes from Pearl.

Circus: Two CAs lead a bombardment TF that does minor damage to Adak. All troop repositioning is complete, except just a few small things needed at Adak and Ulak, the two most forward and therefore dangerous outposts. I'll leave those tasks undone until the carriers arrive.

1st Marine Div.: Three or four days back I paid something like 11 PP to reconstitute the Lost Division at San Fran. It will arrive in about 25 days, will be rebuilt, and will get some important target. This unit fought bravely and gave a good account of itself, yet it shall always carry the taint of Sumatra.

Elsewhere: I'm not seeing signs of an imminent Japanese move. I'm looking. I'm preparing.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/22/2016 2:29:51 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 2:33:24 PM   
ny59giants


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1st Marine Division - You should have enough devices to rebuild. However, if there is one device that you might be short on, it's the 57mm AT guns. I would go into the Intel and then Industry screen and set those to stockpile (Y) so you can micromanage them into this division.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 2:36:47 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

8/4/43

No explanation from John about his email comment yesterday.

Roller Coaster: What looks like a strong combat TF is inbound to the Marshalls.

I'm guessing that John thought that TF was well spotted yesterday.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 4/22/2016 2:51:00 PM   
Andav

 

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Being a Japanese Player, I am not sure I could qualify for the Brotherhood but I will add to the post count because I find the 5" Banzai a bit tedious as well.

Wa

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