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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 3:48:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		One time I ran the game on my work computer and had a sync bug. Then I re-ran the turn on my home computer and didn't have the sync bug!

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 6091
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 3:49:05 AM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termite2


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

quote:

ORIGINAL: Termite2

Question on the sync problem, how do you know you are running the same version?


The version is printed on the main menu page.


Would that mean that the database is the same also?



That version number follows the format of a game version. I have not played scenarios and dont know if there are also scenario versions although it has been mentioned multiple times in this thread that the scenario 'cannot be updated' midstream so I dont think so.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 3:50:12 AM   
Mike McCreery


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Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One time I ran the game on my work computer and had a sync bug. Then I re-ran the turn on my home computer and didn't have the sync bug!


The problem is that it does not seem to be easily repeatable. I think it must have to do with the random number generator and the seed it uses but that is just a SWAG...



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Post #: 6093
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 9:11:49 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

100% prep helps, but it isn't essential in every case (though it was in this case, where the enemy is well prepared and has many forts). If you can catch the enemy by surprise so that a base isn't adequately garrisoned, or if you have so much time that you can blugeon it to submission, then it's okay to to go in with substandard prep.


The thing with prep is you pay now or you pay later. You can wait for 90-100% and be fine in exchange for the time cost, or you can go early and get disrupted/disabled on the landing, and pay later to recover. Atolls are a bit different in that you can go in with regiments, but to the west are islands that take multi-divisions. I've often disabled circa 150 squads of an ID landing with 60-70 prep. And even with massive supply and rest it can be two months to put the ID back to battery.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/43

Thin Man: Raw AV of the Allied troops on Kwaj increased from 44 to 58. That's decent. If Kongos don't bombard it might well be possible to try another attack a turn after the next bombardment (the turn after will allow me to verify that the bombardment was sufficiently disruptive).

So, unless Steroid KB shows up, the Allies intend to push forward at Kwaj.


As Bullwinkle points out, the difficulty in not getting a 1:1 at least in an atoll invasion is the heavy disablements you incur from a negative shock.

What was the starting AV and what was disabled of the Japanese units there? He'll be recovering too, and against 6 forts, attacking with heavily disabled troops may end up putting you further behind.

In my current game the Japanese thwarted two separate atoll invasions at Marcus Island with 6 forts and a few naval guards against much heavier troops, even including tanks and engineers. No idea on prep, but what I know is that attacking quickly again, even with a higher AV than the Japanese troops, and with heavy bombardments from sea and air, they did not take the base.

I'd advise letting the troops slowly heal disabled squads, pounding any nearby airfields, controlling the sea approaches as you've been planning with mines, subs, and Fletchers, and hitting the Japanese with constant bombing pressure from waves of 2E. Even 4-5 disabled squads adds up quickly if they can't recover. Hitting and closing fields and port so he can't easily send troops/supply in or pull useless troops out would help too.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 1:03:34 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		Why don't you and John upgrade to the 3 April 2016 beta patch? This would ensure you are both on the same version. Upgrading to the newest version of RA shouldn't cause a sync issue as that just data.

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Post #: 6095
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 5:59:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/4/42

Thin Man: The pressure cooker is bubbling away. No sign of Steroid KB, but it looks like a big combat TF is at Eniwetok, with Mini KB posted a hex to the east. Meanwhile, the Allied BB TF replenished at Jaluit (using half of the AE's supply). So the Allied carriers and combat ships will move north to near Ailinglaplap. Depending on what happens with enemy forces tomorrow (could be fireworks, could be quiet), the BBs will bombard Kwaj day after tomorrow.

The troops at Kwaj continue to recover - raw AV now at 66 and each unit behind a fort (except 3rd 'chutes, which is behind three forts).

The Allies may complete troop retrieval tomorrow; the last piece to the puzzle being the loading of 7th USA Div. aboard transprorts for delivery to Pearl. That unit was carved up and sent to many islands as reinforcements during the Roller Coaster invasions. But it's prepped for Ponape and will reassemble at Pearl in preparation for that move.

Allied ASW hit another IJN sub hard.

Circus: SigInt that 14th Div. is aboard marus bound for Ulak. I don't see it on the map, but it could be close. I'm sending in DMs and the Fletcher TF. All aircraft squadrons at Ulak and Adak are on standby - lots of naval strike squadrons, lots of good fighters for escorts. I assume Johh will bring a huge covering force of combat ships and possibly some carriers. I'm sortying the "Northern Carrier Fleet": three CVEs at Prince Rupert - just in case John doesn't have carrier support.

It looks like the next few turns could be very interesting in both areas of the Pacific.

But where is Steroid KB? I'm guessing in or close to the Marshalls. I just wish I knew.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 6096
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 6:14:52 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
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From: Alberta, Canada
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

In my current game the Japanese thwarted two separate atoll invasions at Marcus Island with 6 forts and a few naval guards against much heavier troops, even including tanks and engineers. No idea on prep, but what I know is that attacking quickly again, even with a higher AV than the Japanese troops, and with heavy bombardments from sea and air, they did not take the base.


In your/our game, the Marcus Island invasion by the Allies was pretty much doomed from the start. Prep on the two divisions was 60-80% while the smaller tank and base forces were at 100%. I think when I took over the overstack was 17k+ on a 6k atoll, not good. What was it Historiker allowed to happen, 4 straight shock attacks? He wiped out the 25th Infantry Division which had 0 infantry squads left when I took over. I don't know if he ordered those shock attacks himself, or if they were a result of that division unloading all four days. Either way, he burned through his combat troops, suffered massive disruption due to over-stacking and had zero supply. It was clear to me he didn't understand atoll invasions. If at first the attack goes badly, you either cut and run, or you do what you need to do to relieve over stacking or low supply. Definitely stop unloading fresh troops or ordering attacks until you stabilize the situation. If you can control the sea zone for some time, you attack with air and naval forces to keep the defenders worn down until your forces have recovered. Then you attack.

That whole operation was an atoll too far and bungled right from the get go.

Trust me, you won't see that again from the Allies.


< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 5/10/2016 6:20:50 PM >

_____________________________

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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 6097
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 6:33:54 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

In my current game the Japanese thwarted two separate atoll invasions at Marcus Island with 6 forts and a few naval guards against much heavier troops, even including tanks and engineers. No idea on prep, but what I know is that attacking quickly again, even with a higher AV than the Japanese troops, and with heavy bombardments from sea and air, they did not take the base.


In your/our game, the Marcus Island invasion by the Allies was pretty much doomed from the start. Prep on the two divisions was 60-80% while the smaller tank and base forces were at 100%. I think when I took over the overstack was 17k+ on a 6k atoll, not good. What was it Historiker allowed to happen, 4 straight shock attacks? He wiped out the 25th Infantry Division which had 0 infantry squads left when I took over. I don't know if he ordered those shock attacks himself, or if they were a result of that division unloading all four days. Either way, he burned through his combat troops, suffered massive disruption due to over-stacking and had zero supply. It was clear to me he didn't understand atoll invasions. If at first the attack goes badly, you either cut and run, or you do what you need to do to relieve over stacking or low supply. Definitely stop unloading fresh troops or ordering attacks until you stabilize the situation. If you can control the sea zone for some time, you attack with air and naval forces to keep the defenders worn down until your forces have recovered. Then you attack.

That whole operation was an atoll too far and bungled right from the get go.

Trust me, you won't see that again from the Allies.



No doubt Joseph!

The first attempt was more in line with prudent atoll policy. A regiment and some other bits. Tried to find the CR but don't think I saved them so far back and it's only just mentioned in m AAR.

Anyway. It takes some doing if the defenders are behind big forts, and if the landing doesn't get the base, then patience and methodical attrition is the way forward.

_____________________________

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Post #: 6098
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 6:57:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John and I have been discussing updating to the 4/03/16 beta. Then he sends this email, revealing his hand:

"I just downloaded and installed it. Took about 1 minute from start to finish. Go ahead and do the same while I run the turn. Let’s just do that.

"There will be heavy action coming and I want it done without issue."

That's a nice tip-off.

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Post #: 6099
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 7:10:40 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
The first attempt was more in line with prudent atoll policy. A regiment and some other bits. Tried to find the CR but don't think I saved them so far back and it's only just mentioned in m AAR.

Anyway. It takes some doing if the defenders are behind big forts, and if the landing doesn't get the base, then patience and methodical attrition is the way forward.


You mean this was try number two?

Ha, I'll have to try for three, it being the charm and all that.

I think the key to atoll invasions is the unloading. If you can reduce or remove any disruption from unloading over the beach you are that much better off. Softening up the defenders is key, but I think getting your attacking troops ashore in one piece is more important.

I'll get lots of practice at least, or maybe not.

Sorry for the hijack CR.


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 6100
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 7:34:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John and I are continuing to have sync issues. I've installed the 4/3/16 beta (and it shows on my main screen). But when he sent the turn files, I once again got the message that both were saved under an old version. So somehow I think John started using an old version yesterday. I'm not sure how a player does that without knowing, but that's my best guess.

So, I watched the replay, which had some action (I'll post the usual report later) that seemed to favor the Allies. Then I opened the turn file, accessed the internal combat report on the screen, and found that the action was different but still favored the Allies.

But I'm a little bit leery of relying on this, because John's AAR title and his email included phrases that suggested he was pretty excited by the action...which doesn't jibe with what I've seen and just described. So either I'm really getting synced in new ways (unlikely - I think I know what happened now) or John is jazzed because he used his combat ships to soak off some sorties in preparation for employing Steroid KB.

As you can see, the combination of sync issues, mutliple combat reports, and comments by John that seem inconsistent with reality have left me in a bit of a muddled state.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 6101
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 8:33:24 PM   
Andav

 

Posts: 474
Joined: 5/8/2007
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If you are still seeing an earlier version in the turn, there is something wrong. More then likely, John has multiple installs and is not changing the directory properly when applying the patch. I know it helps me a lot to include a screen shot of the version after an update. It makes me double check things and gives witpqs a visual of what I am playing so he can double double check. We also follow the age old process where the Japanese player runs the turn to produce the combat results and saves the turn. Japanese player updates to the new version and then issues orders. Allies run "the movie". Allied player then updates before issuing orders. This might not be required any more but we have never had an issue upgrading.

Wa

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 8:37:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/5/43

I have the combat text report from John. It matches the "internal combat report" on the game screen. So I know what happened now. It was a good day for the Allies - nothing decisive, but a solid start to what's coming.

Thin Man: John sent the Kongos SE from Eniwetok to a point west of Kwaj (probably preparatory to bombarding Kwaj the following turn). His BBs were under LRCAP, but not strong enough to ward off sequential strikes by LBA and Death Star's strike aircraft. Unfortunately, LBA strike aircraft (including TBFs and more than a score Beauforts) went in first and mostly unescorted (had they gone in later after the CAP had been dealt with, John might be yowling). These unescorted strikes got chewed up (on the day, I lost 35 TBF, 21 SBD3, and 15 Beauforts - nearly all of these were LBA). But some large strikes from Death Star followed, easily handled the CAP, and targeted the Kongos. Kongo took 3B, 2TT. Hiei took 6B, 1TT. Haruna took 3B. Kirishima took 2B. All of the bombs were thousand-pounders.

So, John can justifiably feel like he got off pretty light. And yet, let's did deeper.

There are major questions now - was the main purpose of this mission to soak off sorties at an acceptable cost? I don't think this was John's goal, but if so the he might think he's accomplished it. Yet Death Start sorties are still solid - ranging from 88% to 97% for all except CV Victorious, which is in her own little TF. She's at 79%, which is funny because she's only equipped with fighters. Anyhow, Death Star is still good to go.

Or was John's goal to bombard Kwaj the following day? I think this was his objective. If so, he's a bit chastened. I hope he'll choose to retire - it's likely as he might fear that I'll give chase. (I won't.) Two of his BBs will need yard time. Here's hoping an Allied sub gets lucky.

Mini KB was posted west of Roi-Namur, still in an exposed position (as were the Kongos - John thinks he has shields of some sort; a feeling perhaps merited because he's gotten away with so much, due partly to me sticking to mission here). But where is Steroid KB? SigInt reported heavy signals traffic at Truk, so perhaps that's a clue.

Here's what I think will happen tomorrow: John will pull back Kongos and Mini KB. Here's what might happen: If his mission is to soak off sorties, he might try this again before sending in the Steroid Pack. Anyhow, I'm giving it one day to see how things develop. All carriers and all combat TFs will rendezvous one hex west of Maleolap. This includes all BBs replenished at Jaluit plus reinforcing Oklahoma.

If John pulls back, the Allies will bombard Kwaj tomorrow. Raw AV of troops there is up to 79 - a pretty solid recovery.

Supply looks really good now: Tarawa 20k; Mili 40k; Jaluit 67k; Maloelap 55k; Ailinglaplap 6k; Wotje 15k. Supply distribution can be handled now by LSTs and barges, so that part of the Thin Man is over. But loading of 7th Div. cadres at Mili continues to drag, so that part isn't quite over.

Circus: It looks like enemy ships are moving east from the Attu region in large numbers. DMs laid 120 mines at Ulak. The Fletchers and PT boats will stay at Adak, the main airfield, to protect against bombardment missions.

The Pacific seems to be catching fire.

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Post #: 6103
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/10/2016 10:33:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/6/43

Thin Man: Kongos retired as did Mini KB. This and John's email comments make it clear that he expected me to move aggressively against his damaged ships. So there was no contact, and I think John is now out of position to protect Kwaj. However, there may be mines there now and I know subs are posted there. But the BBs are going back in - two TFs of two slow BBs each.

There is friction involved in such close contact, but if these bombardments go off well, the Allies might try an attack at Kwaj day after tomorrow (after another bombardment, this time by fast BBs). AV is up to 88 - not enough to get risky with, so I'll only order an attack if the bombardments seem truly devastating.

The bombardment runs will be preceded by two combat TFs and a minesweeping TF probing the base.

All troop retrieveal TFs have fully loaded now. They will depart Mili and make NNE. This is the first step towards a withdrawal of many of the supply and troops ships used (to this point most effectively) in Thin Man. Some supply ships continue to unload, so the area should be truly flush by the time this wraps up.

No sign of Steroid KB.

Circus: John unleashes a pretty stout CA bombardment at Ulak Island. His combat ships are preceded by three DMS, which clear a few mines and get beat around a bit by shore guns. My Fletchers don't react from nearby Adak, to my surprise. John crossed me up here; I thought the target would be the much bigger airfield at Adak; he ships do moderate/heavy damage to Ulak's facilities. More SigInt that 14th Div. is aboard ships bound for Ulak. I believe he's coming. This is not a freebie for him by any means.

But I'm not overly concerned about Ulak. My path to victory (IE, the course I plan to take in the coming months) does not depend on who holds Ulak. My course is in CenPac. So that's where I'm concentrating at the moment. John realizes this and is strongly reinforcing.

But it really depends now on the carriers. We're at a standoff at the moment. That suits me while my focus is Kwaj and Roi, which are really on my porch rather than on his. And I won't be too concerned when I take on Wake Island and/or Amchitka and/or Kusaie. But going further than that will pretty much necessitate having accomplished a carrier clash and emerging victorious.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 12:03:06 AM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
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From: United States
Status: offline 		To react they have to have a patrol order for the hex they are in or be in transit. Stationary, without a patrol order seems to have the same effect on reaction as a do not retire setting.

I have experimented heavily with this and stand by it, although I have never had it verified by a dev.


< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/11/2016 12:05:07 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 12:05:37 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		They are on patrol at Adak. Arleigh Burke would usually react, but this time he chose not to.

It's not all bad. An LST TF will arrive at Ulak tonight with much-needed supply. The Fletchers will come over to provide protection. But I think the coast is clear since the IJN combat ships are low on ammo and heading west.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 1:37:35 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

To react they have to have a patrol order for the hex they are in or be in transit. Stationary, without a patrol order seems to have the same effect on reaction as a do not retire setting.

I have experimented heavily with this and stand by it, although I have never had it verified by a dev.



Thank you Hans, very interesting findings.

Will a ship with remain on station react during transit?

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Post #: 6107
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 1:44:14 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/07/43

Thin Man: Both Allied bombardment TFs go in without opposition. The effects of the bombardment don't seem dramatic. Tomorrow, Washington and Alabama will lead another bombardment TF in. That will be followed by a bombardment attack to get a feel for the defenses. Over the next few days, I'll decide whether to keep up the pressure this way or whether to retire to Pearl. In that event, I'd allow the Kwaj troops to recover disruption (they are currently at 95 AV) and gain prep points. I'll have to leave some combat ships in theater to guard against counter-tactics.

No sign of Steroid KB or Mini KB. My working hypothesis is that the great deal of time shipping spent in the Marshalls has persuaded John that the area fairly bristles with big bases. Under this hypothesis, John remains reluctant to push too close (a feeling reinforced by what he probably thinks is a lucky escape from disaster). But this working hypothesis is balanced by the belief that Steroid KB is out there and John wants to pounce.

All troop-recovery TFs and empty merchantmen are now east of Maloelap and will make the break for Pearl. Mini KB is out of sight. But I am somewhat concerned that KB might have swung wide. I don't think this likely (my patrols should give notice, and John has to be worried about fruitless expenditures of fuel). So I think the coast is clear, but I'll shepherd the TFs as carefully as possible.

Circus: Quiet here today. Ulak has 193 mines and 7k supply. Adak has 167 mines and 14k supply. I think an invasion TF is inbound, but I can't see it yet. CL Honolulu and another Fletcher have arrived at Adak. This CL doesn't have torps, so I wonder if I shouldn't pull her back?

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Post #: 6108
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 2:08:13 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		John is playing multiple games simultaneously plus doing development work - he must have multiple game installs.
It would be very easy (if he is tired, late at night) to put the game file in the wrong install. For that matter, if YOU have multiple installs you should check which one the game is now saved in.

RE: the AE - it can replenish your BBs but expect it to take several days. The problem is Ops Points. The AE can only transfer so much ammo per turn and BBs typically need an AE all their own to get replenished in one turn. If you have smaller ships also being replenished by the AE, the BBs get pushed back even further in the queue. And once the BBs are all loaded up and heading out to do dastardly deeds, the AE has to load up more ammo from the port. At a level 4 port with 99 naval support figure 3 days to reload ammo.

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Post #: 6109
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 2:33:22 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		BB, that's what I'm seeing. The AE reloaded two BBs completely in one turn, then 1.5 BBs the next turn. That left it at 25% supply. It's taken two days to reload the supply (would've taken three had it been empty, just as you say). Now the BBs are returning for more. This will be a wearying cycle, and there's always the threat of subs or pouncing combat ships or carriers.

I only have the one game installed. This is the only game I've played since around 2012. So I think the confusion arose on John's part; again, probably as you say.

And you bring up another good point. John is dividing his attention between three games. I am solely focused on this one. I think he's giving a disproportionate amount of attention to this game, given the razor's edge we've been on since we resumed, but I do have a time and attention advantage on him.

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Post #: 6110
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 3:57:36 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

And you bring up another good point. John is dividing his attention between three games. I am solely focused on this one. I think he's giving a disproportionate amount of attention to this game, given the razor's edge we've been on since we resumed, but I do have a time and attention advantage on him.


I count 4 turns for you today. I usually get one and once in a blue moon I get a second. He lost today's so I just got it back to him. As far as I know, Herbie gets one per day. He has about a month before ours gets suddenly very busy.

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Post #: 6111
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 4:53:59 AM   
SierraJuliet


Posts: 2319
Joined: 2/23/2009
From: Brisbane, Australia
Status: offline 		Where does someone like John III get the gaming staying power from + hold down an important job and maintain his role in the family. The personalities who play this game are fascinating. I share those sentiments about getting in a turn a day and fully second the time and attention advantage that focusing on a single game will provide.

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Post #: 6112
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 11:41:41 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/8/43

Thin Man: On the bombardment run to Kwaj, BB Washington takes two TTs from a sub. She's moderately-heavy damaged and can only make 8 knots. She'll limp to Maloelap (following an ASW TF), disband, and pump out water. Since she's in a high-friction area and far from the shipyards, she's out of the war for a long, long time. Her bombardment TF (reduced to Alabama and Indianapolis and DDs) bombards Kwaj, focusing on the infantry (meaning, I think, that the CD unit is highly disabled).

Both sides then engage in ground bombardments to get a measure of the other side. Both seem to have raw AVs of 100, though some of the information during the battle sequence suggests that John's troops may be reduced to about 25 effective AV. The Allied units have 93 raw AV. I'm going to let them rest and remain on defense for the time being.

All troop-retrieval TFs are loaded, meaning the last of the merchantmen (with the exceptions of a few supply ships) will depart the Marshalls tonight, joining a train that began leaving the station two days back. So far the egress has gone smoothly.

The carriers and combat TFs will remain on station at least another day and perhaps much longer. I'm weighing between a number of options. Fuel levels are good; sorties are good; and I can probably replenish sorties at Jaluit; and two big AO TFs are on call if needed. So the carriers can remain on station or they can retire to Pearl, depending on circumstances as I'll explain further.

The big decision is whether to focus on the Marshalls and vicinity or whether to focus on Amchitka. The weather will close down operations in the Aleutians in less than three months, so that's a factor. If I want to head north, I can't spend the next two months in the Marshalls. Too, where is Steroid KB and Mini KB? No sign of them today. If they pop up in the Aleutians, I'll probably jump at the chance to expedite things in the Marshalls. If they show their ugly selves in the Marshalls, I'll probably stick close in order to protect the troops at Kwaj. But if John manages to extinquish the troops at Kwaj (that's not likely, but not impossible), I might move to Amchitka. I have ten days or so to decide, mainly the period in which troops ships will retire to Pearl, unload, and then reach the stage of being ready to re-load.

CV Bunker Hill and a CVL will be ready to depart Balboa tomorrow. BB South Dakota will be repaired at Pearl in about 40 days. I "found" a RCT 100% prepped for Eniwetok up at Anchorage (had forgotten about it), so it's now en route to theater. So the Allies will have units fully prepped for Wake and Eniwetok (both 6k limits), highly prepped for Roi-Namur (6k limit), and 100% prepped for Ponape and Kusaie (high limits). I'm inclined to focus on this theater unless something happens to change my thinking.

Japanese air sortied from Roi-Namur today and overwhelmed decent CAP at Ailinglaplap, sinking two supply xAK and a supply xAP. 20 Judys were downed during this clash.

Circus: Big enemy combat TF seems inbound for Ulak or Adak. I think John may try to cross me up here and hit Adak, so the Fletchers will stay put. I received interesting inconsistent SigInt today - that parts of 14th Div. are aboard ships bound for Ulak...but that 14th Div. is prepping for Adak. No way John lands an unprepped unit, so I think Ulak is not a target. Adak might be, but given the size of its garrison (632 AV behind five forts with 160 mines), it would take an all-out effort. The might include Steroid KB.

On the chance that John might also try a raid into the Gulf of Alaska to pick off some of the shipping there, I'm reconfiguring the picket-ship arrangements and pulling back some of the better high-value shipping, including the CVEs.

(in reply to SierraJuliet)
Post #: 6113
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 5:07:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		9/9/43

Thin Man: Four Fletchers probing Kwaj find an unescorted barge TF bringing in troops. All the barges are sunk - the combat report showing 125 combat squads destroyed plus some engineers. There are no new units ashore, so either all the troops were destroyed or any survivors belonged to units already there.

Enemy fighters from Roi-Namur sweep Ailinglaplap, the Allies coming out slightly ahead.

Heavily damaged BB Washington disbands at Maloelap. My working plan is to let her lie at pierside to recover damage. I think John has subs between the Marshalls and Pearl, so I'll let the glut of merchantmen reach Pearl before sending damaged ships home. Speaking of which, there is a long train of merchant TFs from near Johnston to a point east of Maleolap. The egress movement is going well so far. It's actually a crucial mission as it includes lots of empty APAs plus ships carrying most of 7th USA Division. Reach Pearl in good shape and the Allies will be ready to move again in short order.

The combat ships and carriers remain "inside" the Marshalls, and will stay there at least another turn or two. As summarized yesterday, the ships are in great shape. Another indicator is SYS damage - I don't think there's a single ship with more than "1" reported.

A few lagging supply TFs are unloaded. Some bases are more than flush. A few are less than flush. But, overall, the mission to address supply and overstacking concerns at these hard-won islands has been a rousing success. Thus far, the Allies have suffered one meaningful loss - the heavy damage to Washington. Against that, the logistics items just mentioned have been addressed and the troops are ashore at Kwaj with what seems to be a fairly good foothold. On the other side, John has seen two BBs and a CV take torpedoes; he's used a fair bit of fuel. On the credit side, he's still holding Kwaj and has a chance to defeat the Allied troops there.

No sign of enemy carriers.

CV Bunker Hill arrived today, so that CV/CVL TF departs Balboa today for Hawaii.

Circus: Sharp engagement between enemy CA bombardment TF and six Fletchers at Adak. I lose DD Renshaw. John has one DD showing "heavy fires/heavy damage." Then the enemy encounters PT boats (I lose four for no gain). The bombardment is strong, doing moderately-heavy damage to the airfield; enough damage that my strike packages their decline to fly against the enemy TFs, which only made it one hex out. B25s from Umnak sortied wtih some P-38 escorts but fail miserably against stout LRCAP. All things considered, the Japanese came out ahead in this exchange.

SigInt reports 14th Div. and 116th Div. prepping for Adak. This is probably the real thing. If John wants Adak, he has to hammer it mercilessly by air and by sea. So that suggests the possibility that he might pivot and bring in Steroid KB (or at least big BB TFs that can get cover from LRCAP). Adak is strong - the only concern is the 16k supply. John will want to impose a blockade to prevent more coming in. So I'll probably send more combat ships to theater. Right now I have a slow BB, CL Honolulu, and six Fletchers (two or three of which need a few days of repair).


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6114
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 5:36:43 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		What are your air transport assets, which should be considerable by now, up to?

Are the bulk of them committed to the Hump?

There reason I ask is that setting up a daily air supply run to the Aleutian Islands where naval transport may have to fight its way in makes good sense.

It may be a trickle, but a steady daily trickle can make a difference, especially if it is happening before he comes ashore and the land combat increases the usage rate.

A wing or two of transports running from Dutch Harbor to Adak (if they can reach) could help fill the gap between naval supply runs.

_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6115
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 6:34:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'd guesstimate that 60% of Allied air transport squadrons are flying the Hump. But there are others currently in service: three or four squadrons in the Aleutians flying supply from Umnak to Ulak (which actually had a more pressing supply situation than Adak), several at Alice Springs flying supply to the stalwart Aussie conquerors at Tennant Creek, and several more in the Marshalls that were most recently used for the para-assault of Kwajalein on D-Day. There are number of other units in Hawaii and on the West Coast.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 6116
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 6:48:43 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		Should have known you would already have assets at work in the theater.

Adak may be shaping up to become their next preferred destination.

_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6117
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 7:02:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yeah. They'd been flying supply to Ulak, which was down to 3k. But a recent LST TF bumped supply there to 9k. So Adak, the real prize (and with but 16k) in the region, is the higher priority now. I'll switch it over.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 6118
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 7:37:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Ships Lost Screen shows that 33 Japanese subs (not including SSX) have been sunk thus far. Of that number, more than half (17) have been sunk in the past two months. The action has been hot and heavy in the Marshalls and, to a lesser extent, the Aleutians.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6119
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/11/2016 9:09:44 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		How are your pickets in the area north of Wake? John likes to spring surprises so I would not discount a KB semi-circular move from Rabaul to north of Wake and then down toward Johnston Island to catch your transport stream. Much depends if he really knows where your carriers are. If he only has a low D/L on them he can infer carriers from the D/L on his nearby subs, but won't know if they are CVEs or the Deathstar. If your CV D/L is more than about four he will have it pegged and might get adventurous in your rear areas before he goes North to Alaska.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6120
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