RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/12/2016 11:41:57 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

It looks dangerous but if he moves in you still have ti e to cut him off with your CVs. This is to your advantage either way. If he moves into the Marshalls, you have LBA to support. If he moves to strike Amphibs, he might even get 5-10 but would risk losing the KB in deep Pacific territory. It's not good to have damaged CVs out there for the IJN.

Or you could just sprint the APAs and AKAs and take the system/engine damage in exchange for getting out of danger. Depends on the fuel situation.

Time to move your subs back eastwards as well.

Rushing back to engage KB has the advantage that its strikes will be split among the many targets while yours will not, but then you lose LBA support too. With your fighter groups not replenished yet that could be a problem. So many factors, so little certainty - great theatre!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/12/2016 11:45:38 PM

Canoerebel

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Yup, "the horns of a dilemma," and all that. You do a nice job of articulating the fact that so many variables can enter into a decision. And, by the way, my APAs are all green on fuel, but not quite to the point where they can stand two or three turns of full speed. So, on the possibility that KB might show, I sent a three-AO replenishment convoy south of Pearl a few days back. That way I can run east or southeast at full speed and then replenish fuel. I didn't think it would be necessary, but I'm glad I did.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/12/2016 11:46:48 PM

ny59giants

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We both know how much John loves to go out and sink Allied ships of whatever size even when there is really no strategic or even a tactical one to do so. So, is this move east of Wake Is to go after your LOC between the Marshalls and Pearl? Is it to draw your CV into battle away from LBA that you both have been after in the Marshalls? If so, he will also strike with strong SC TFs in the Marshalls once the Death Star is away. How will you count this? He will believe that all that experience gained in northern Sumatra by his warships will overcome any numerical advantage that you may have left there. Meanwhile, you could use those big, nasty B-24s to cause him some confusion someplace, IMO.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 1:11:10 AM

witpqs

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Sinking APA (and to a lesser extent AKA) is strategic at this point, because the fire hose of APA production does not yield fruit until later on. At this point losing a bunch of APA puts a pinch in your amphibious operations. Not saying it would be fatal, but it is real.

As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 1:20:11 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Sinking APA (and to a lesser extent AKA) is strategic at this point, because the fire hose of APA production does not yield fruit until later on. At this point losing a bunch of APA puts a pinch in your amphibious operations. Not saying it would be fatal, but it is real.

As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

Boy, John is burning tons and tons of fuel and not getting much out of it. If he chases the merchant fleet he may have to expose his AO's . You have more good options than bad, John could make some pretty bad choices here

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 2:20:07 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/13/2016 2:28:43 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 2:43:21 AM

Capt. Harlock

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Yes, I confess to following both AAR's, and never have I enjoyed dueling AAR's more. Win or lose, your insights are a pleasure to read. The one problem is I have to walk on eggshells making comments!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 2:44:00 AM

Canoerebel

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9/12/43

Thin Man: JEB Stuart is in the saddle again. Steroid KB is moving east, fortunately not at flank speed. She made only eight hexes today. My string of merchantmen is still in harm's way, but only if John sprints tomorrow or the day after. Pretty soon they'll simply be too close to Pearl for John to chance anything.

But, goodness, to see Steroid KB moving east is eye-opening. Since the risk to the merchantmen is relatively small, I think John must have something else in mind. Mini KB showed up today, seven hexes NW of Eniwetok and 23 hexes west of Steroid (KB), so not close enough to combine forces for at least two days. Fuel doesn't seem to be a concern for John.

An IJ sub picked off an AK carrying troops SE of Johnston Island - I think part of 7th Div., so the loss there is meaningful.

Death Star took station just east of Jaluit. John got 3/3 detection on one TF and higher detection on the Victorious TF at Jaluit, so he knows Death Star's position. Death Star and Steroid KB are 19 hexes apart - not close enough for battle unless John uses flank speed and enters the orbit of the Allied LBA. Not likely. So perhaps he is making another JEB Stuart ride. I see through a glass darkly.

One Allied BB TF replenished at Jaluit, apparently using the ops points, so Victorious didn't replenish sorties. I'll give the another day. All of Saratoga's Hellcats will be serviceable tomorrow.

Allied AV at Kwaj is up to 123.

Only a few ships with supply to unload in the Marshalls. This part of the operation has been so slow - getting supply ashore at bases with small ports is no quick job. But it's been done. Tarawa (28k), Mili (51k), Jaluit (73k), Maloelap (69k), Ailinglaplap (13k), and Wotje (19k). Of the troops ashore at Kwaj all have 10x to 15x supply, except the 'chutes battalion which for some reason has 5k supply when it only needs 31 supply. The Marines are stealing the other units blind, hiding beer and tins of beef in their jungle dugouts.

So what happens next? Death Star will not sortie - it needs a few days to replenish fighters and address Victorious's sorties. So the ball is in John's court.

Circus: No sign of imminent enemy invasion up here. Was it deception or indecision? My guess is the former. A sub near Agattu Island hit CL Jintsu twice, sending her down. That's a nice little victory. The upgrades by 9th Australian Div. sucked down supply from 16k to 10k (ouch!), but new deliveries have bumped it back to 13.5k.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/13/2016 2:47:08 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 2:49:40 AM

Canoerebel

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JEB Stuart rides again?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 2:53:36 AM

Canoerebel

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Steroid KB, Mini KB and Death Star within sufficient proximity to raise the tension level.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 3:50:14 AM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

I thought you said 9 hexes per day... never mind!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 4:00:12 AM

Canoerebel

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Well, my comments did only specify the nine hexes per day, giving the impression I was "assuming" he'd do that. I took into consideration the possibility of flank speed, though I didn't (and don't) think it's likely given the fuel expenditure and how it would leave KB rather rattled deep inside my perimeter with Death Star between him and home. He might do it, but I don't think he will.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 6:43:54 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
As to CR's earlier comment, if John chooses to sprint KB at high speed that will be 18 hexes per day, though maybe only for one day, perhaps two. I think your calculations about ships being in the danger zone need to be redone.

That's what I said - they could be in harm's way if John's hunting them. But I do think the APAs are too fast and too close to Pearl to be in real danger.

I also agree about their value. The Allies get a ton of them in mid-43, but then the pipeline largely shuts down. I have to shepherd them carefully. They are in harm's way, of course, but thus far in this operation none have been sunk.

I thought you said 9 hexes per day... never mind!

I take 8 hexes to mean Kaga is with Main KB rather than Mini KB. If he had to refuel DDs I would expect fewer than 8 hexes progress.
Of course John could just be setting a trap with Mini KB as the bait and Main KB ready to streak in from the flank, but CR has such great intel on his dispositions that it would not work.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 12:20:32 PM

HansBolter

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He is moving way too tentatively for it to be a move against your transport stream.

He did have glen coverage over the stream to know it basic contents and locale right?

It looks to me like both carrier TFs are strategically positioned to cut off a move to the Aleutians by the death star.

In order to react to an invasion up there you would have to potentially engage both carrier TFs out from under your LBA.

The positioning prevents you from getting to the Aleutians in a position where you would be supported by your LBA there for any head to head encounter.

Could be he is simply moving cautiously in Indian country in his pursuit of prey, which will preclude much success, but it also 'could' be strategic positioning.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/13/2016 12:22:46 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 1:43:06 PM

SuluSea

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This is great reading with the coffee in the morning! Thanks!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 4:27:08 PM

Canoerebel

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9/13/43

Thin Man: KB moves further east - nine hexes today - and is still a modest threat to the lagging merchant TFs en route to Pearl Harbor. But the threat is really minimal and will vanish next turn unless John uses flank speed. The first merchant TFs will arrive at Pearl tomorrow, many others the day after, and only the furthest out are another day back. I don't think these are John's targets, but KB keeps moving east so that I can't quite rest easy yet.

Mini KB is further back near Eniwetok. Who was it (Hans Bolter?) that posted that perhaps John has established a blocking position. Could be. But then I wonder why he would give himself away? It's a long way from the Marshalls to the Aleutians, so anything that's going to happen up there would happen before Death Star could make it (I think?).

Victorious TF replenished ammo and sorites at Jaluit today. The next lowest TF on sorties has 88%. I'll probably go ahead and replenish that TF too while I'm waiting for the two Hellcat squadrons the replaced aircraft to become fully operational again. The Allied carriers are high on sorties, fully refueled, and almost no SYS damage, and there's plenty of fuel in the Marshalls. So conceivably the carriers could stay here for weeks.

6th USA Div. arrived at San Fran today and will prep for Truk. Several turns back, Allied units in Australia switched prep from defensive locations to offensive locations.

Circus: A strong IJN cruiser TF (Maya, Chikuma and three CLs) intercepted an empty LST TF east of Adak, sinking three plus an AM. Then Arleigh Burke's TF (CL Honolulu and five Fletchers) found the enemy, crossed the T, and battered them a bit. Both IJN CAs took some hits, as did several of the CLs, including one that reported "heavy fires." Honololu and one Fletcher took modest damage. In four or five days, Arleigh will have at least six or seven Fletchers at his disposal.

Allied air sortied against the wounded Japanese aircraft, but the latter had heavy LRCAP. So I lost a handful of B25s from Umnak. The enemy ships ended up four hexes from Adak, where I had scores of strike aircraft and fighters set to range three. I keep hoping that "eventually" some good IJN ships will be slowed enough after combat in this area to get hammered. But the LRCAP in this instance was too strong and too close to Amchitka. I'm glad John's ships ended up four hexes away rather than three.

A USN sub put a TT into an AR east of Paramushiro.

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

Map to come later.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 4:48:45 PM

jwolf

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Hmmm,trying to reconcile this with the Japanese AAR latest title "crazy" and I can't see how it's really crazy, at least not yet. I'm not reading the Japanese AAR anymore (so I can comment and speculate more freely here) so I hope the full picture will become more clear soon.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 5:09:26 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

Map to come later.

If he is trying to reinvade, his enthusiasm is getting the better of his judgement here. He knows the Allies will have massive forts, 43 upgrades and lots of Fletchers and PTs, plus mines around here. If he is invading I would say that would be the turning point between a tensely fought mid-game duel to a building Allied rout. I hope for your sake he chooses something more strategically sound so you get a hard fought battle to the end!

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/13/2016 5:11:41 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 5:11:06 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/13/43

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain.

And, to quote a really great series you don't watch, Winter Is Coming.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 5:18:05 PM

ny59giants

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quote:

SigInt once again reports 116th Div. aboard marus bound for Adak. Is John coming after all? I don't want to lose Adak. I know John will bring alot of he's actually coming, so that the contest will be a tense one. But, man, I'd like to see Japan try to dig out 632 AV 100% prepped behind 5 forts in favorable terrain

Were you able to get the fragment for the Aussie division there together with the parent so you could upgrade the '42 rifle squads to '43 version?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 5:35:20 PM

Canoerebel

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Yes, the division is fully upgraded to '43 squads. It's a stout division.

What Obvert says makes sense - that Adak is a bear. John knows pretty much what there. He's no dummy, so probably all of this is deception. Exciting deception, but deception nonetheless.

jwolf, I saw teh "Crazy" title too. I figured it might refer to the outcome of that cruiser battle in NoPac (after all, John seriously outgunned me, but the Allies seemed to be the ones administering the whipping there). Who knows, though. Maybe he's considering some wild plan.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 6:31:25 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm using an older version of Paint for this screen shot, so forgive the lower quality (I seldom use my work computer for screen shots). This shows Steroid KB heading east, but too far behind the merchant TFs to be a major concern. So what's John doing? What does he hope to accomplish? I'm chewing over possibilities.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 6:53:10 PM

BBfanboy

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OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 7:00:47 PM

Encircled

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Think Hans has got it spot on.

He's blocking you from interfering in the Aleutians.

Is it possible that he's got no idea at all what you have up there?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 7:01:27 PM

jwolf

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k

Well that would be pretty exciting.

Seriously, I'll bet he really is trying to find somewhere that all of those Sumatran veterans could make a big splash. But by this time in the war I don't think that is possible.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 7:06:10 PM

Canoerebel

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He's been reconning the closest major bases in the Aleutians for months: Ulak, Adak, Umnak and Cold Bay. He has to know pretty much what's there. Just the size of the stack (more than a dozen units, I think) should be intimidating. He was afraid to invaid Sabang with a huge army and absolute control of air and sea. But maybe he thinks with Death Star in CenPac that he can mercilessly pound Adak with BBs until it submits.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 7:31:55 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

OMG - he's going to use all those troops from Sumatra and invade Hawaii! j/k

Seriously though, how much fighter coverage do you have at Pearl?

How much anti-shipping air platforms?

He might not be going to invade Pearl, but he just might be considering a raid to catch you with your pants down.

How effectively could you counter a strike from 8 hexes out?

Hopefully you have about a thousand AA guns there.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 5/13/2016 7:34:26 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 7:41:35 PM

Canoerebel

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This has occurred to me, too, Hans. Pearl is not armed to the teeth, but I have taken some steps to beef things up. First, three turns ago I upgraded a bunch of old Army fighters used for training. Pearl now has mostly up-to-date P39, P40N, and Thunderbolts. This past turn, I also moved two P38H squadrons from the Marshalls to Johnston, where they can hop either way as needed. If all squadrons report to Pearl, the total defense will be rougly 175 fighters. So it's not strongly defended, but neither does it offer a freebie.

Flak at Pearl is fairly weak, though there is one dedicated AA unit (British, of all things) and quite a few units with organic AA.

But the main thing I'll have to do is run a bluff. If John sees Allied ships sprinting for Pearl, he will likely conclude that I consider Pearl a haven. I don't think he'll risk KB's air arm against a hardened target while Death Star straddles the route leading back home.

So I'm running a bit of a bluff here. At the moment, I think the bluff will work fine.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/13/2016 7:44:45 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 8:18:20 PM

KenchiSulla

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175 fighters @ 100% CAP when you need them will be enough to bleed him.. That is a risk he can't afford to take for a few bomb hits on ships in a big port....

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/13/2016 8:31:50 PM

Canoerebel

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The "through the glass darkly" applies so well here and in every game of AE being played. So many possibilities.

Another is that John was hoping to bag damaged BB Washington on her way back to Pearl, though KB was late in arriving if that was his objective.

I frankly don't know what he's doing, though I will continue to try to figure it out. Importantly, I don't have to know at the moment. Death Star is currently engaged and isn't in a position to give chase, which I wouldn't consider anyhow (unless KB loses alot of aircraft and sorties in hitting Pearl).

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