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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:12:14 PM   
uncivil_servant


Posts: 200
Joined: 2/19/2013
Status: offline 		Attack vs. Lay Back?

Reasons to Attack:
1.) Morale. Enemy morale likely is shaken. Loss of second carrier fleet must hurt.
2.) If you outnumber him in planes you have an advantage (your historical DS numbers versus KB numbers)
3.) If you have the planes and pilots in reserve to attack - will you ever get a better shot? i.e. No/few LB planes to muck up the works.
4.) You are both far from major bases to hide in/repair in. Allied D/C repair gives slight advantage far from home (?)

Reasons to be Cautious:
1.) The cat and mouse 8 hexes versus 7 hexes advantage (???)
2.) You have a victory - don't get cocky. Gods of dice rolls/rng may change sides.
3.) If you don't have sufficient spare planes and pilots a loss, even without flattops, could put back naval air power for quite some time.

Unknowns:
1.) Dice rolls.
2.) Everything else not known...

Verdict: Keep up the Skeer
You'll likely never get a chance again for the enemy carrers to be to your east, with you between it and its home. Unless you lose badly, even if you draw, his wounded must traverse your line of ships to make it home. The same does go for you though.

His ride 'round your lines deserves a good Sheridan counter maneuver.

_____________________________

It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion,
It is by the beans of Java that thoughts acquire speed,
The hands acquire shaking, the shaking becomes a warning,
It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion.

(in reply to Bearcat2)
Post #: 6301
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:12:26 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

That was a massive smackdown - his TF composition was poor IMO - no flak-heavy ships embedded and too many CVEs in one TF. It showed in strike fragmentation. You also got favourable weather for the first few raids and he didn't have success until the big raid found "partial cloud".

Are you sure some of those strikes came from Steroid KB? The numbers seem low for that.
I agree with taking on Steroid KB, but your pilots will have some fatigue and you used some torpedoes, so I can understand if you decide not to.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6302
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:24:19 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		Superb! Absolutely Superb!

Hat's off....

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Hans


(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 6303
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:41:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies will press forward five more hexes. This will interdict any "regular" speed movements by KB to NW or W. If John continues regular speed, he'll have to go S or SE to avoid battle. If he's really desperate, he can order flank speed and steam due west. In that event, he can make it to within his perimeter near Roi and Eniwetok. But if he chooses that course of action he might blunder into the entire Allied navy, including many combat TFs (of course, the blundering might work havoc on my TFs). Another option for his is to steam at flank NW or NNW.

Will he seek battle? I don't think so, but it's possible.

My ships are in fine shape regarding sorties and numbers of aircraft. Probably 50% of TBF squadrons don't have torps. Most TF are high on AA and none are less than 62%.

Enterprise has 24 SYS damage (little other damage) and Hornet has less than that. Both can still make good speed. The AI detached their TF to return to the Marshalls. I belayed those orders, partly because any TF heading into the Marshalls might hit concentrated LBA. Better to stick with Death Star.

Massachusetts and St. Louis can make about 15 mph. I'm not sending them home due to the LBA threat. Instead, they're set to follow a ASW TF to the ENE (KB is east and will move NW or S, so this is probably the safest course). If this TF survives, she'll make directly for Pearl Harbor.

It was a good day. I hope tomorrow is a good day.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 6304
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:45:32 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Nice job.






Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6305
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:51:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Due to sync issues I didn't see the origins of any strike aircraft, but Steroid KB ended up eight hexes from Death Star (yikes!)

The eight CVEs he lost held something like 220 aircraft. He lost 520 on the day. Or so the reports claim. So Steroid KB had to be involved in the strikes unless I'm overlooking something.

I showed John starting with 900 aircraft (to my 1100). Mouseover now shows him with 750 to my 1050. He lost 520 on the day, so at first blush I thought, "Hey, he should only have 480 left!" But he's undoubtedly sent in reinforcements from land-based squadrons).

So it may be 1050 aircraft vs. 750 aircraft. That's a good ratio, especially if a fair percentage of John's squadrons are disabled or fatigued (to match the levels in my squadrons, which are actually in good shape).

(in reply to Lecivius)
Post #: 6306
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:51:56 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		Wow! Congratulations on winning the first round of the fight.

There is a lot of information available from the combat report that can help you determine if you want a second round of fighting. For instance IJN carrier aircraft flew about 700 sorties in attacks against your TFs, split between the morning and afternoon. Taking strike composition and aircraft losses into consideration together with lost deck capacity should give you a pretty good idea of the aircraft left to the KB. Do you have the desired correlation of aircraft available to press the battle? Can you reasonably expect to avoid the 7 hex range curse? If you are not comfortable with the answers to these questions, then there is nothing wrong with retiring toward the Marshalls and going about your business there. Securing Kwajalein and following up with Roi Nemur was the higher priority objective. Has that changed?

ETA: 12 lousy seconds, and my post is moot. Good luck.

< Message edited by poodlebrain -- 5/17/2016 5:58:29 PM >

_____________________________

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6307
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 5:58:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The priorities when Thin Man began were these:

1. Secure Allied bases in the Marhsalls and Gilberts by offloading supply and retrieving units from overstacked bases.
2. Seek advantageous battle versus combat ships or carriers.
3. Amphibious assault on Kwaj and/or Roi.

The first objective has been met.

The third objective morphed into something new that I haven't discussed much. Two weeks back, I concluded that the best way to take some heat of Kwaj and Roi would be to attack Wake Island. The amphibis are already en route. So I have no immediate plans Roi and Kwaj. I will hit Wake soon unless things go awry with the carrier battle.

The second objective is still on the table. There are no guarantees that the Allies will emerge victorious tomorrow (or, for that matter, that a battle will even take place). But the odds have swung decidedly in my favor. It's not 100% to 0%, but I'd guess it is something like 65% to 35% if a battle takes place.

I'm sure John is livid and demoralized - man, it's hard to lose a carrier battle. Another big blow tomorrow and he's really going to be despairing.

(in reply to poodlebrain)
Post #: 6308
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:05:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		CAP percentages during the turn were 40% for Hellcats and 50% for everything else (Wildcats and Martletts).

I've adjusted all of those to 50% now.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6309
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:16:31 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Your CAP held up fantastically well to wave after wave of well escorted raids.

The TBF crews are murder as well. The only reason to not press on is if you don't want him to give up.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6310
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:19:05 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		An invasion of Wake! Oh man, that's absolutely awesome.

Either way, John's got to get his ships out of the way (those that survive), which means that he'll be completely out of position when you attack.

This is a very promising move & one that will definitely be the icing on the cake. Good luck!

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6311
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:25:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Oh, it's me versus him. If I beat him on the battlefields in '45, that's good. If I drive him to despairing surrender in the autumn of '43, that's good. John is my good gaming friend. I even sympathize with him in his feelings right now. But after all these years of "Banzai!" and some painful beatings (six months of daily nuclear bombardments at Sabang! KB hammering underprotected CVs in my first WitP game with him a decade ago), it's me versus him.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6312
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:28:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Consistent recon shows Wake with a garrison of 5.5k, considerably less than all his remaining holdings in the Marshalls and points west. 5.5k is a manageable number.

The Allies have a Candian brigade and a US RCT. Both are 100% prepped. I also have a handful of Sherman tanks from a partial unit that is prepped only like 20%, but I just want to see what they might do.

But if the Allies emerge from this carrier battle in decent shape, and if BB main gun ammo isn't all shot away, the Navy should be able to batter Wake into submission.

That's the plan. The amphibs are lurking west of Pearl - I can't send them too far forward because there's no telling where John might send his carriers if flight is his priority.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6313
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:29:30 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		Well done! Your opponent's play speaks for itself, and I won't pile on. We all knew it was possible with how badly the IJN carriers were being handled.

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6314
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:35:02 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline 		Isnt wake capacity only 6,000 troops? Are you using SL's?

5.5K means he packed everything that it could hold.

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Post #: 6315
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:41:07 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Oh, I know that you & John go way back (and I've enjoyed each of those AARs too).

I just get a little tired of his crowing....about time he was on the other end of a Banzai for once.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 6316
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:45:52 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The eight CVEs he lost held something like 220 aircraft. He lost 520 on the day. Or so the reports claim. So Steroid KB had to be involved in the strikes unless I'm overlooking something.

I showed John starting with 900 aircraft (to my 1100). Mouseover now shows him with 750 to my 1050. He lost 520 on the day, so at first blush I thought, "Hey, he should only have 480 left!" But he's undoubtedly sent in reinforcements from land-based squadrons).

So it may be 1050 aircraft vs. 750 aircraft. That's a good ratio, especially if a fair percentage of John's squadrons are disabled or fatigued (to match the levels in my squadrons, which are actually in good shape).


Yeah, my thinking on the air losses and numbers ran something like this, though not as specific. He lost a lot of planes that turn, say very roughly split between the mini KB and the full KB. Your strike aircraft are still in pretty good shape while his are rather battered, although the Jap fighters should still be pretty strong. This looks like about as good a shot as you'll ever get unless he makes a terrible mistake later.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6317
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:48:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Paullus, oh, I am with you. Very hard to hear "Banzai!" after "Banzai!" and not see it as taunting. I don't think John is aware how it comes across to the poor Allied vicitim who has to mostly endure it for the first 1.5 years of the war.

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 6318
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 6:56:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Wargmr, we are playing with stacking limits, which is a tremendous development in the game. I can't imagine playing without them.

But stacking limits have a mythology about them. My experience with them is that 2x is quite sustainable. The only time I've seen real problems is at 3x.

Now, that's for the Allied player, who generally has alot of supply. Perhaps the Japanese player has to stretch more at 2x. But John has many of the Marshalls at 2x, including Kwaj, Roi, and Eniwetok.

So Wake at 1x is quite alluring. Allied BBs, if not warded off by the enemy, are devestating when bombarding atolls (at least in combination with BBs embedded in amphibious TFs). I think if KB is out of the picture (sprinting away or going somewhere to refuel), the Allies can take Wake with two RCT. I'd embed two slow BBs with the invasion TF and have another BB TF bombard on D-Day. Too, I think John reinforced relatively recently, so perhaps prep and forts aren't that great. With the assault troops 100% prepped, I think the chances of success would be fairly high.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6319
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:05:09 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		Congrats on your victory. The morale of his strike aircraft pilots will be shot to bits and they will turn back in droves against your massed CAP (if they fly at all)! Time to finish him off.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6320
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:06:33 PM   
pws1225

 

Posts: 1166
Joined: 8/9/2010
From: Tate's Hell, Florida
Status: offline 		Ugh! My inner JFB is hurting, but you are to be congratulated for executing what appears to be a nearly perfect ambush. Hats off to you, Sir.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6321
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:19:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This email note in from John, who is about to run the next turn: "...Just back and am running turn. Fully expect to possibly lose the war this turn..."

Probably that won't happen. So many variables can enter into whether there's a clash and how that clash turns out. But I'm hopeful.

I recall a turn back in early January '43 in which KB was making for the Bay of Bengal. Death Star was close to Ceylon. I didn't know what John was doing at the time - I assumed he might be raiding and looking to hit the Allied carriers. As it later turned out, KB was providing a blocking position for Mini KB to escort badly needed supply to Port Blair and Rangoon.

I chose to offer battle, moving to a point SE of Ceylon. KB ended up about eight hexes south, a flew a few weak strikes that managed to damage Wasp moderately.

But what I'll never forget is John's email comment when he sent the turn back: "You could have ended the war today." I didn't know what he was talking about since I hadn't played the turn yet. But later, when I put it all together, I realized he was taunting (not maliciously, but straightforwardly). He was saying that if I had acted more decisively to engage KB, which was reduced in numbers by the detachment of Mini KB to escort the supply ships, I'd have overwhelmed KB and won the war right there.

But, man, don't say those kinds of things.

(in reply to Miller)
Post #: 6322
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:36:51 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I really dislike that the game rides and falls on the survival of the KB in the minds of so many JFBs.

It is a different game without the KB for certain...


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6323
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:42:44 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Losing the KB just ends the offensive phase of the war for Japan....after that, it becomes a chess match to see how many losses the Japanese player can inflict on the Americans and buy as much time as possible.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6324
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:51:12 PM   
KenchiSulla


Posts: 2948
Joined: 10/22/2008
From: the Netherlands
Status: offline 		Well done! Very well done....

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AKA Cannonfodder

"It happened, therefore it can happen again: this is the core of what we have to say. It can happen, and it can happen everywhere.”
¯ Primo Levi, writer, holocaust survivor

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 6325
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 7:51:48 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004
Status: offline 		Better not hear one single “Banzai” taunt outta you to him! “Ooo-rah” … “For Freedom” and “ ’murica!” are all perfectly acceptable taunts, of course 

_____________________________


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Post #: 6326
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 8:03:57 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Just catching up.

Congrats on your victory! Well deserved after all your hard work!

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 6327
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 8:10:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't exepct John to throw in the towel if he suffers a lopsided carrier defeat, but I know that's a possibility. I hope he'll continue. I think he will. And, yes, it's still a long, hard slog with plenty of ups and downs to come.

I think many of us have learned some of our best lessons fighting when we suffered what seemed to be a hopeless war. Nearly every Allied player experiences a crushing carrier defeat as a newbie. Those who stick with the game and figure out ways to advance learn a heckuva lot.

Anyhow, I'll do what I can to steady and encourage John if he does seem downcast.

And, if he is downcast, once he fights through it, he'll be a tenacious defender.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 6328
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 8:11:09 PM   
Flicker

 

Posts: 229
Joined: 11/24/2011
From: Rocket City USA
Status: offline 		Great victory CR! "Preserve untarnished the reputation you have so nobly won." - Forrest.

I wonder if / where his surviving CVE aircraft went? Did they make it to an island, or are they crowded on to the CV's impeding John's coming air ops (although I guess maybe the CV's have room for the CVE survivors). It would be nice if that messed up his air coordination a bit...

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 6329
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 5/17/2016 8:12:53 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's a quick post of the full combat report, just in from John (so that I can check against sync issues). Later on, I'll redact some of the unnecessary, space-filling info. But for now I want to get back to the turn.






This is just how I saw it all in my dreams last night. Except, I was not wearing any pants.... Nice victory. The luck was all pretty much on your side. But nothing wrong with that....

< Message edited by crsutton -- 5/17/2016 8:15:39 PM >

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6330
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