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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/5/2016 11:25:05 PM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
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Status: offline 		So much of it depends on the Japanese defense it is hard to identify a winning strategy every time.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/6/2016 4:40:45 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I like Raboul because he can spread out in all directions and clear up his sea lanes.



I think any level seven port is key. Marcus, Rabaul, Truk (6-?) I prefer Marcus but Dan has not taken much in NG and the Solomons to back it up. I you are going up NG or through the Central Pacific then sooner or later you will really need to take Manila. Late game play really demands a major advanced ship yard. Manila, Hong Kong or Singapore. One of them must be taken.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/6/2016 5:19:35 PM   
BillBrown


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Status: offline 		You typed Marcus, but I think you mean Manus(sp?)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/6/2016 8:50:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, gents, just checking in during vacation. Here in North Myrtle Beach, SC, its raining, but me and the kids are heading down to the beach to ride the waves. In between, I ponder ways to vex John III. So far, I haven't dreamed about him, thankfully.

One of you guys seems to be inside my head. I won't mention who, right now, so that I don't give things away.

Big Tent has been "locked in" for about a month now, with lots of troops prepping. Thus far I haven't seen worrisome SigInt or base-building activity, so it should be good to go. But nearly every place you guys have mentioned (plus a few others) were considered before I made the selection.

You gents enjoy a nice Monday evening.

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Post #: 6724
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 1:49:52 AM   
alaviner


Posts: 764
Joined: 3/8/2007
From: Blacksburg, Va
Status: offline 		Enjoy N Myrtle. Its one of my old stomping grounds

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 4:43:45 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.



Hmmm..this is fun.

Assuming the US Navy/Army have not yet instituted random operation naming, what could "Big Tent" mean?

1) The author has secretly wanted to join the circus and bring his contortionist act to the world but his parents wanted him to be Atticus Finch

2) FDR is secretly going to use the military to take out his GOP rivals

3) The name refers to the scope of the operation, perhaps implying multiple targets collected under one geographic area

4) It is someplace with elephants

Now, FDR did try to pack the Supreme Court and incarcerate thousands of US citizens in internment camps but option 2 seems over the big top

For option 1 you would think we would have seen at least some pictures along the way or some mention of "limbering up".

For option 4..where are the nearest elephants? Thailand? Why would you start at Pearl Harbor.

That leaves option 3.......

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 6726
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 4:55:45 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Also, the capture of Wake is said to be "useful" ....removal of a land based air threat...removal of recon...staging of land based planes to move on to captured airfields during Big Tent?

Well, you don't need Wake to go after the Kuriles..unless the whole thing is a huge diversion. What is the next "Big Tent" of real estate? The Marinaras!

Of course, that could just be what we are supposed to deduce. The comment about "no recent building or recon" suggests a more ambitious plan with poorly guarded targets. This might mean the smaller islands of the Marinaras, Rota, Pagan, Anathan..or...

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 6/7/2016 5:09:20 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 5:12:24 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake



quote:

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.



Hmmm..this is fun.

Assuming the US Navy/Army have not yet instituted random operation naming, what could "Big Tent" mean?

1) The author has secretly wanted to join the circus and bring his contortionist act to the world but his parents wanted him to be Atticus Finch

2) FDR is secretly going to use the military to take out his GOP rivals

3) The name refers to the scope of the operation, perhaps implying multiple targets collected under one geographic area

4) It is someplace with elephants

Now, FDR did try to pack the Supreme Court and incarcerate thousands of US citizens in internment camps but option 2 seems over the big top

For option 1 you would think we would have seen at least some pictures along the way or some mention of "limbering up".

For option 4..where are the nearest elephants? Thailand? Why would you start at Pearl Harbor.

That leaves option 3.......

Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....

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Post #: 6728
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 5:17:57 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.

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Post #: 6729
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 5:27:11 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		We should handicap it:

Morning Rine, Hirohito Handicap:

Marinaras: 8:5

Bonin Isrands: 3:1

Kurires: 4:1

Truk Ragoon: 5:1

Rabaurh: 20:1

Phirripines: 50:1

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 6730
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 5:34:41 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We should handicap it:

Morning Rine, Hirohito Handicap:

Marinaras: 8:5

Bonin Isrands: 3:1

Kurires: 4:1

Truk Ragoon: 5:1

Rabaurh: 20:1

Phirripines: 50:1


Truk + Pelelieu & Babeldaob: 14:3


_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 6731
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 5:53:40 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		Observing CR's play, it appears to me that he favors strategies that lead him nearer the Japanese Home Islands over strategies that isolate Japanese forces via flanking maneuvers. So if I were setting odds on the target for Big Tent I would make the Marianas the favorite. I really went out on a limb there, didn't I?

As atonement for my reluctance to expose my posterior by making a bold prediction, I'll offer my concept of operation, Poodlebrain's Big Tent Proposal. Capturing the entire island chain in a single swoop is not a realistic possibility with the forces available. So I propose to do so in stages. The first stage would involve a main invasion of Tinian with a supporting invasion of Pagan. Stage 2 of the operation would be to secure the lines of communication and develop Tinian and Pagan into bases capable of supporting the stage 3 invasion of Guam and Saipan. I would expect the entire operation to take as much as six months to complete.

While Big Tent is being conducted I would be making thrusts at economic targets elsewhere that would require the Japanese to commit the IJN, and the KB in particular, for the Japanese to have a favorable chance of repulsing. Lots of fun to be had with the Allied navies in 1944, and much of the forces lost on Sumatra will have been replaced and needing something to do.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 6:00:32 PM   
poodlebrain

 

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From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
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quote:

Truk + Pelelieu & Babeldaob: 14:3
Truk is a tough nut to crack. I was going to propose going after one or more of the bases on the northwest coast of New Guinea, as an alternative to Truk, in combination with Pelelieu and Babeldaob. But I gave it less likelihood given my observation that CR prefers more direct approaches toward Japan, and the lines of communication would be long and exposed.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 6:03:17 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Observing CR's play, it appears to me that he favors strategies that lead him nearer the Japanese Home Islands over strategies that isolate Japanese forces via flanking maneuvers. So if I were setting odds on the target for Big Tent I would make the Marianas the favorite. I really went out on a limb there, didn't I?

As atonement for my reluctance to expose my posterior by making a bold prediction, I'll offer my concept of operation, Poodlebrain's Big Tent Proposal. Capturing the entire island chain in a single swoop is not a realistic possibility with the forces available. So I propose to do so in stages. The first stage would involve a main invasion of Tinian with a supporting invasion of Pagan. Stage 2 of the operation would be to secure the lines of communication and develop Tinian and Pagan into bases capable of supporting the stage 3 invasion of Guam and Saipan. I would expect the entire operation to take as much as six months to complete.

While Big Tent is being conducted I would be making thrusts at economic targets elsewhere that would require the Japanese to commit the IJN, and the KB in particular, for the Japanese to have a favorable chance of repulsing. Lots of fun to be had with the Allied navies in 1944, and much of the forces lost on Sumatra will have been replaced and needing something to do.


I'd say Bonins because they may be easier. They'd also trigger kamikazes, right?

What about the Kuriles? You don't necessarily need all of the Aleutians to snag the Kuriles (can't remember if CR has them or not).

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Post #: 6734
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 6:38:10 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		It's only October 43 so in terms of long range fighters we have:

P-38 G/H

P-51A and P-47D2 just starting to arrive.

Iwo Jima is 15 hexes from Yokahama. How much good does Iwo do the Allies in October 43?

On the other hand Etorofu, Toyahara, Shikuka, Uruppu Jima you can really start to pour it on.

(in reply to Mike McCreery)
Post #: 6735
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 6:45:47 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		You take Shikuka for the airfield (clear hex) and snatch some of the Kuriles and start building. You bring 10+ AKE/AE, AO's and a ton of surface combatants to protect the nascent bases. The carriers hang out in the Sea of Okhotsk or the Northern Pacific and you load a few CVE's with P-38's and P-47's so they can fly off to any AF you capture.

It's nice to have a level 5 AF at Shemya but not absolutely necessary

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Post #: 6736
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 7:05:08 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
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From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.

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Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 6737
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 7:10:17 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		IWO is of limited use even later in the game. It's annoying, but just not big enough to base a significant number if heavy bombers. Also, not much of a port. The other options would provide better strategic support

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 6/7/2016 10:22:29 PM >

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Post #: 6738
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 7:22:47 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Hmmmmm.... I am starting to get a feel for Dan. He likes to drive deep and grab something big where he can develop multiple supporting bases. Knowing the weakness of KB at this stage, (refitting and repairing) I am betting that he packs up everything he owns in his old suitcase and heads for the PI. That ole boy likes drama. I know he will try something new and big. We are not dealing with a "girly man" here. So, I will take the 50 to 1 bet......

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 7:24:22 PM   
Insano

 

Posts: 228
Joined: 7/23/2009
From: Joplin, Missouri
Status: offline 		Put me down for Ulithi / Yap and the base west of Truk in the middle of nowhere - can't remember the name right now.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 7:42:24 PM   
Flicker

 

Posts: 229
Joined: 11/24/2011
From: Rocket City USA
Status: offline 		I'd like to change my guess from Guam and the Marianas to Guac and the Mariachis.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 8:08:55 PM   
BillBrown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.


He was just checking out the heavenly bodies about.

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Post #: 6742
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 8:34:06 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
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From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.


Speaking of Black's Beach, I wouldn't complain if I had to attend Point Loma Nazarene University. Aside from the prevalent religious fanaticism, if Nazarenes can be called fanatics, there is something to be said for a small private school located so close to the beach with a better than 2:1 ratio of female to male students.

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 6743
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 8:56:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

IWO is of limited use even later in the game. It's annoying, but just not big enough to base a significant number if heavy bombets. Also, not much of a port. The other options would provide better strategic support


The value of many islands in the Pac is not in having them but in him not having them.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 9:15:28 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.


Yes, but there aren't any kamikazes yet.

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Post #: 6745
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 9:24:44 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.


Yes, but there aren't any kamikazes yet.



The farther Kuriles and Sakhalin don't trigger kamis. Only the islands closer to Hokkaido. It's measured from Tokyo, 20 hexes I believe (although I think when I drew this several years ago I thought it was 21).

It's notexactly accurate, but it's pretty close, anyway.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 6/7/2016 9:31:48 PM >

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Post #: 6746
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 9:55:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hello, Gents. I've been at the beach today, where we were under a "tropical storm warning" with sunshine and nearly calm seas. Okay.

Once, many years ago, I went for an early morning jog heading northeast towards the rising sun (not that rising sun!). Far in the distance I saw two young men walk onto the beach, strip off their clothes, and run into the ocean. Just my luck. Men.

I'll give one answer regarding Big Tent. NoPac was eliminated immediately. Operation Circus (the invasion of Hokkaido re-routed to the Aluetians) lit a fire under John's seat. For months afterwards, SigInt was lit up with troops diverting to the Aluetians, Hokkaido, etc. Hokkaido is a run target to hit, but only when the enemy isn't expecting it.

I've look at nearly every other possibility out there, from Sumatra to Oz to New Guinea to the Home Islands. I don't think there was a perfect target, but I came up with two the I looked at longest before finally selecting one. You guys are doing a decent job of discussing (and sometimes eliminating) places that are/were under consideration.


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 6747
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 9:56:51 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline 		Kamikazes are triggered when the Allies capture a base within 20 hexes, by sea, of Tokyo, Takao or Saigon. So only the inner Kuriles will trigger Kamikazes, and only on or after 1Jan1944.

_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

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Post #: 6748
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 10:21:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		Hush Dan, Operational security and all

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6749
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/7/2016 10:42:13 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		"YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE....please...please FOR THE EIGHTH RACE, THE HIROHITO HANDICAP, HORSE NUMBER 3, PARAMASHIRO HONEY IS SCRATCHED. THANK YOU...you...you"

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 6/7/2016 10:44:58 PM >

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Post #: 6750
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