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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 2:16:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think next turn is the last one in which John can pounce upon the herd with masses of LBA combined with KB strike aircraft. After that his opportunities are likely only to be KB vs. Death Star, at least for a long time to come.

I thought John might not commit KB because he'd want to see how his hardened targets (Truk, Eniwetok, Ponape, Marianas) handled the invasion without risking KB. I hope this is right. If so, Death Star will move on to a region where John doesn't have any major airfields and which, soon, the Allies should. The region is very important (but not decisive), so John's going to be conflicted: should he commit KB against Death Star when the Allies are sitting there turn after turn, week after week, taking and building a large grouping of interlocking airfields and ports. It's going to be a dilemma for him.

He may commit and he may win the ensuing battle, but I think Big Tent (once safely away from Truk in another two days) is going to put him under immense pressure to do something under conditions that don't necessarily favor him.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7081
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 2:44:19 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		"egress" is slightly purple but an absolutely crucial WWII naval battle word.

I feel sorry for the Free French. They practice for months looking at plaster of paris maps of Satawal and recon
photos, their first chance to regain national honor fighting sand fleas and coconut v head strikes and then you cancel it on D-Day -1.

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 6/25/2016 2:47:50 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7082
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 2:45:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No, the Free French are going in tonight. It's the Americans of the 41st Regimental Combat Team who don't get to assault Wolei after spending a half-year prepping for Eniwetok. They're pretty happy about it.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7083
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 2:57:20 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		<aboard an unnamed APD>

Cpl Cloutier: Henri! Le operation, she is ohn! Today Satawal! Tomorrow Saigon!

<All stand and begin singing>

If you turn me down one more time I'll zhoin ze Franch Foregin Legion
Bet you zey would welcome me wis open arms

First you love me, yes, zen you love me, no
I don't know where I stand.....




< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 6/25/2016 3:02:42 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7084
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 3:07:23 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		John will follow his MO once he identifies your invasions. Multiple SC TFs will be coming to try to disrupt your landings within the first week, me thinks.

_____________________________


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Post #: 7085
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 3:07:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Aboard the USS Overton, a Clemson class APD making 20 knots on a southwest heading, 97 miles WSW of Truk).

Sous-lieutenant Pierre Herve, New Caledonia Detachment, Free French Army: "Je suis fatigué de cette baignoire puante. Mes aisselles odeur comme le fromage de chèvre."

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7086
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 3:44:10 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

Je suis fatigué de cette baignoire puante. Mes aisselles odeur comme le fromage de chèvre."


I like goat cheese. There is always one guy like that complaining about everything.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7087
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/25/2016 4:42:35 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Egress is not a Purple word, it is a Khaki word. Perfectly acceptable in this context.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7088
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/26/2016 1:00:57 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Egress is not a Purple word, it is a Khaki word. Perfectly acceptable in this context.

So, is "ingress" purple?
How about "Congress"??

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 7089
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/26/2016 3:46:10 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Ingress is also Khaki. Congress, however, is usually ineffective and difficult to understand. I wouldn't use that word no matter what color it is.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 7090
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/26/2016 3:59:03 PM   
poodlebrain

 

Posts: 392
Joined: 10/4/2012
From: Comfy Chair in Baton Rouge
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: T Rav

Ingress is also Khaki. Congress, however, is usually ineffective and difficult to understand. I wouldn't use that word no matter what color it is.
You might not understand Congress, but I'm willing to bet you could have easily understandable and effective congress with Natalie Portman while not wearing Khaki.


_____________________________

Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 7091
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/26/2016 10:43:32 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Though Ms. Portman is particularly attractive, the Congress I was referring to is not as much. If you could arrange a congress with Ms. Portman without my wife lopping my head off, let me know.

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Post #: 7092
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 12:59:10 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/9/43

Big Tent: Big Tent finally gets underway with a successful, smooth, uncontested landing at Satawal atoll. PBYs are stationed here to provide boosted nav search. No sign of enemy combat ships or carriers, but I'm pretty sure John is marshalling his forces now. I do think he's going to grow desperate to intervene once he knows what the targets are. He said via email he knows, but I think he's just guessing a bit. Where the herd is huddled now, combined with it's general vector of movement, should lead him to certain conclusions. But he's already boasted before that he knew, plus recon and SigInt give proof to where he thought the invasion would take place. Something big could happen soon, but the herd is moving away from Truk now, so he should no longer have the benefit of massed LBA to supplement his carriers. Things could go sour, but the most dangerous stretch of ocean has now been covered. From now on, I think any battle that happens will be on even turf (or possibly even on turf favoring the Allies.

Partly this is because of "Eldorado." I'm now revealing it (see map, which dates from two weeks back). This base gives the Allies important Nav Search capability and a "home port" designation for all TFs. That way, if battle damage happens, my TFs don't auto-seek some distantly dangerous base like Wake or Jaluit.

The herd should be no more than five days from commencing landings now, beginning with the two most important targets and nearby dot hexes that should be easy to take and which can be built large.

I'm not going to invade Wolei. It's more important, I think, to move expeditiously now. The herd will not retire back the way it came, as originally planned, so Wolei isn't as important as it was.






Attachment (1)

(in reply to T Rav)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 1:00:25 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's today's map showing the taking of Satawal and the movement of the herd west from Truk.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 7094
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 1:05:29 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's a map from two days back (game time) that explains the "Eldorodo" idea in more detail.







Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/27/2016 1:10:01 AM >

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Post #: 7095
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 1:13:29 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's the Strategic Map that tipped off Nabire back in late October.




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 1:16:11 AM   
SuluSea


Posts: 2358
Joined: 11/17/2006
Status: offline 		Very cunning!😃 Enjoying the game play, pops popcorn.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 1:18:27 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

Very cunning!😃 Enjoying the game play, pops popcorn.

Yes, CR is working to make PBM players (of either side) paranoid as to what their opponents might be up to!

< Message edited by witpqs -- 6/27/2016 1:21:02 AM >

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 8:16:19 AM   
JeffroK


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_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 7099
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 9:37:49 AM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		This is because CR does not own a TV. The rest of us are watching Game of Thrones and Dan is studying the map willing magical bases to appear.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 7100
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 2:29:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		11/10/43

Report from Kansas State Archaeologial Expedition, September 12, 1889: In a rock outcropping about three miles south of the Republican River, Professor August Simerle and three students found the skeletal remains of a caucasian male of age 35 to 40. Artifacts found near the bones included a Navy revolver, six bullets, a wooden canteen, belt buckle, shirt buttons, fragments of cloth and leather, and four coins. Etched into the ceiling of the rock outcropping, which formed a sort of cave, were the words: "Clint Baker, Sept. 1868." These are believed to be the remains of Clinton A. Baker, U.S. Cavalry trooper and later civilian scout and wagon train leader. It is believed that he led the so-called McGregor Wagon Train west from Independence in the spring of 1868.

Sumatra Campaign: Today is the one year anniversary of D-Day Sabang, Sumatra, November 10, 1942. When all is said and done, I'm pretty sure that remarkable battle, which ended in an ugly defeat eight months later, was the decisive battle and turning point of the war. Remember Sumatra!

Big Tent: The herd lumbers west five hexes in a tight group that isn't molested by enemy forces. Death Star CAP downs a host of search Jakes. A lone LST arrives at Satawal and unloads supply. The APDs and AP invovled in the landing there rejoin the herd in good order. Additional PBYs arrive from the Marshalls.

Nav Search is not picking up KB or enemy combat ships. They are almost certainly in the area. John is going to feel some pressure to intervene, I think, but he may wait until he sees an opportunity or until he is so flummoxed that he feels he has no choice. But he's lost the advantage of LBA. Truk is now 12 hexes to the rear and the herd is ordered to move six more hexes west tomorrow. The closest threatening enemy airfield now is Babeldaob, which may be as close as nine hexes tomorrow. It won't be any closer. Then, after that, the only decent airfield John has is at Ternate.

SigInt today that 2nd Guards Div. is on a maru bound for Ternate. This is the first item of SigInt pertaining to a base in the general target area. Nav Search from Satawal and Nabire do not show any concentrations of enemy shipping in the area - just a routine TK at Babo, the small oil producing base at the western end of New Guinea. If my information is accurate and properly interpreted, John is just now coming to awareness of what's going on. His emails suggest that is the case. He can move in reinforcements by air, but Death Star could be parked right in the breadbasket in just three days (sooner if I get a sighting of KB at some distant point so that I can detach Death Star and send it out ahead of the herd).

Wolei is weakly defended and could be easily taken. It's tempting to take it for it's size two arifield, but landing troops and enough supply to keep the base running would take at least two days and maybe more. All the while, John would be reinforcing bases that should be basically undefended. Since I don't plan to use Wolei during egress, I won't yield to temptation. Better to move expeditiously to the key targets.

Third Ring: Lots of fuel inbound to support offensive moves following Big Tent, and all troops are now in place with PP accumulating steadly. By the time Third Ring is ready to go, I should have enough PP to buy out at least two restricted Australian divisions (in addition to a great host of unrestricted American and Anzac troops already in place and unrestricted.

Lion Tamer: Judys from Ndeni sink an xAP at Efate today, but enough of a base force detachment comes ashore to give the base some aviation support. Most of the BF was already here, but all the aviation support was over at Wallis Island. Finally I can move fighters to Efate to handle potential operations against Luganville, Vanua Lava and later Ndeni. I'd expected John to detach some combat ships or carriers down here against what he ordinarily perceives as easy pickings, but the threat posed by the herd up in CenPac will probably draw his full attention now.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7101
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 2:35:52 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Don't forget some shiny trinkets for the local headhunters. And a lawyer. You will need some kind of lease agreement, I imagine.

By ra way, the AI will override the home base for severely damaged ships when the base port is very small.

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Post #: 7102
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 2:39:37 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sumatra Campaign: Today is the one year anniversary of D-Day Sabang, Sumatra, November 10, 1942. When all is said and done, I'm pretty sure that remarkable battle, which ended in an ugly defeat eight months later, was the decisive battle and turning point of the war. Remember Sumatra!



So you are saying it was decisive in YOUR favor because it was a diversion
and led to lack of preparedness in the South Pacific?

< Message edited by Cap Mandrake -- 6/27/2016 2:42:26 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7103
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 2:53:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Exactly. I think crsutton put it best a month ago when he said it was "the sacrifice of a queen to achieve checkmate."

P.S. He wasn't saying the game was over - it wasn't and isn't - but just making the point that sometimes the most gruesome-looking defeat can play a key role in victory.

It was obvious to all of us (and John later told me this via email) that he elected to focus on Sabang to the exclusion of most everything else, thinking it was vital to make sure he wrapped it up. While he was focused there, the Allies spent more than four months shifting everything to the Pacific. The move caught John by surprise, prompting him to overreact in alarm, overcommitting in the hot-spot of the moment while of necessity neglecting other improtant locales. And thus the Allies have moved around pretty effectively, whittling away big chunks of the empire. It hasn't always been easy, but it's been possible because of Sumatra.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 3:35:15 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		IS here a plan afoot to run supplies and troops via C-47 from Australia? Or is that even necessary? Can most aircraft types make the jump? Thats part of the beauty of this exercise, you can keep running planes in

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 3:53:12 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		I say, that is an astonishingly good idea you have there...using the strat map to find green dot bases in Injun country.

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Post #: 7106
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 3:55:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Most aircraft can make the jump from Oz to many of the targeted bases. I should end up with multiple big arifields 18 hexes or less from Portland Roads.

In two days, Kanga force will paradrop on the base west of Port Moresby (Terapo), but only if it's vacant. It will be reconned tomorrow. If it's occupied, then I'll look for another possibility. But that would make it possible for even Spitfires to make the jump.

I shouldn't need to bring supply in as the "herd" has plenty of its own to last months. That's one reason Death Star will remain in the theater for so long - to allow base building and supply unloading.

If this plan is successful it not only creastes a strong next of interlocking bases at the edge of the DEI but it also merges to theaters - CenPac and Oz while bypassing a large number of strongly held enemy bases. So Allied forces will end up spending the end of '43 and '44 sniping in the DEI and preparing to move forward instead of getting embroiled in tough fighting at Ponape or Lunga or Rabaul.

And I think John's focus will then naturally turn to the Celebes, Borneo and Mindanao, meaning Ponape, Lunga, Rabaul and other important bases are considerably less important. So at some point - probably in early '44 - the Allies can pick and choose which should be taken for protect the LOC and provide some decent port facilities.

All of this is dawning on John now - and even if he hasn't fully recognized it quite yet he'll intuitively know that it's a dangerous situation. That's why I think he might be desperate enough to commit KB.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 7107
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 4:18:46 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

By ra way, the AI will override the home base for severely damaged ships when the base port is very small.


True, but it is likely (??) that Dan will capture some more useful ports pretty quickly and then they can be used as home port designations. This whole thing is a very bold -- maybe even brazen -- operation that could unhinge the entire Japanese defense.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 7108
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 4:35:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I didn't know the the AI would override base designation. Well, that's something new to fret about a bit.

One of the first targets can grow into a decent-sized port. Two contruction regiments come ashore then. Two more are strat loaded and will begin to land as soon as the base falls. With four regiments ashore, I think base building should proceed pretty fast.

jwolf, my internal debate early on was whether this was far enough (to take advantage of KB's defeat) or whether it was too far. At first I worried it might not be bold enough. But once the op got underway, I worried that it was too bold. I think arguments can be made either way.

Some of the early targets under consdieration were Shokaku, Marcus, Leyte and Mindanao. Those were rejected on the premise that they were too bold - too close to multiple large enemy bases. My main concern about Mindanao was that it had the fortified Marianas to the rear, making the LOC a real problem.

On the flip side, obviously the Solomons, New Caledonia and Port Moresby/Milne Bay were too conservative. They didn't unhinge anything and would allow John to retire in order and build his next line of defenses.

So that pretty much leaves a certain area that seemed the best choice under the circumstances. It isn't perfect - it isn't a fatal blow to John - but it offers the most at the least risk at what is still a relatively early date.

Now that the herd is past Truk/Marianas, the period of greatest exposure to attack is ended. But John will know everything about the herd's location now and has a pretty good grasp on the targets. Any day he can choose to attack. So the focus is on getting the amphibious assaults underway ASAP while attending to defense. If he doesn't molest the herd greatly within the next seven days, the key opening will be secure and the entire front will have shifted west about 2,000 miles.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/27/2016 4:41:33 PM >

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 7109
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2016 6:51:09 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't know the the AI would override base designation. Well, that's something new to fret about a bit.

One of the first targets can grow into a decent-sized port. Two contruction regiments come ashore then. Two more are strat loaded and will begin to land as soon as the base falls. With four regiments ashore, I think base building should proceed pretty fast.

jwolf, my internal debate early on was whether this was far enough (to take advantage of KB's defeat) or whether it was too far. At first I worried it might not be bold enough. But once the op got underway, I worried that it was too bold. I think arguments can be made either way.

Some of the early targets under consdieration were Shokaku, Marcus, Leyte and Mindanao. Those were rejected on the premise that they were too bold - too close to multiple large enemy bases. My main concern about Mindanao was that it had the fortified Marianas to the rear, making the LOC a real problem.

On the flip side, obviously the Solomons, New Caledonia and Port Moresby/Milne Bay were too conservative. They didn't unhinge anything and would allow John to retire in order and build his next line of defenses.

So that pretty much leaves a certain area that seemed the best choice under the circumstances. It isn't perfect - it isn't a fatal blow to John - but it offers the most at the least risk at what is still a relatively early date.

Now that the herd is past Truk/Marianas, the period of greatest exposure to attack is ended. But John will know everything about the herd's location now and has a pretty good grasp on the targets. Any day he can choose to attack. So the focus is on getting the amphibious assaults underway ASAP while attending to defense. If he doesn't molest the herd greatly within the next seven days, the key opening will be secure and the entire front will have shifted west about 2,000 miles.


I was going to say something about that... I think they will sail for the nearest actual port. Even though that dot base is yours, it has no port.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 7110
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