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Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 12:31:33 AM   
Seathom

 

Posts: 12
Joined: 11/20/2015
Status: offline 		I am still in the process of starting my first game, which will be the campaign game as the Allies. It seems from what I've read on the forums, giving up the Philippines is part of standard play. Does anyone feel that the Allies can hold it? IRL, it certainly seemed plausible if the Americans had reinforced the area (especially with aircraft) right away as I believe they slightly outnumbered the Japanese forces.
Post #: 1
RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 12:57:23 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Seathom-

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game, I'm starting a game as Allies (ugh...) against the AI (double ugh )

My goal is to break the AI and win the game (for the Allies) in 1942. Anything short of that is a failure for me. I'm playing scenario 1 with 'historical' difficulty.

My goal is to massively reinforce Java and hold it at all hazards. If I can get past the Japanese amphibious bonus expiration, I think I have a fighting chance.

Already, as of January 10, 1942, Soryu, Hiryu, Zuikaku, a CVE and Zuiho are gone. Kaga, Akagi and Shokaku's airgroups are shredded. I've lost Hermes. Japan is already down 1200 planes (to about 400 for the allies).

Singapore is firmly held and supplied. The AI squandered its initial attacks and is badly damaged there. I believe I can hold it through April.

Rabaul has been assaulted, but I had a chance to reinforce it beforehand. It's holding-albeit just. It is the site of numerous naval battles.

In spite of everything going well for me, the Philippines are *still* in difficulty. Mindanao has caved and Luzon only holds at Bataan, Clark and Manila. The AI attack here was also poorly organized and I've managed to beat away the daily air attacks sufficiently well to not suffer disruption.

Supply is the biggest issue, as I'm sure you can imagine. With the Sulu Sea and southern Philippines falling rapidly, there's really no way to get supply up there any more. The N. Borneo route is Nettie heaven and Kuching, Brunei and Miri are gone. The Southern Borneo route has to go past recently captured Tarakan and a heavily enemy presence at Jolo (not to mention Mindanao on that corner). It may be possible to get supply in from the East across the Philippine Sea, but I would need to sail directly into Manila harbor to unload. In so doing, I either have to go south of Formosa (and get Nettied to death) or S. of Luzon and hook up around towards the north.

In order go the southern route to Luzon, I'd have to have massive naval superiority to fend off interdiction efforts once I'm spotted. Based on the rapid dismantling of Kido Butai, this may be possible in a few months-but very risky. It's also unlikely that most other players would have this option-particularly against a more capable human opponent.

IF I can hold the Philippines, Luzon makes a perfect strat bombing base and site of interdiction against the IJN. It would easily afford me the opportunity to auto-vic the IJ in 1942. But it's oh-so-tenuous until I can get a bunch of supply (and some reinforcements would not hurt any) there.



< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 10/23/2016 1:00:25 AM >

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 1:07:48 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Seathom

I am still in the process of starting my first game, which will be the campaign game as the Allies. It seems from what I've read on the forums, giving up the Philippines is part of standard play. Does anyone feel that the Allies can hold it? IRL, it certainly seemed plausible if the Americans had reinforced the area (especially with aircraft) right away as I believe they slightly outnumbered the Japanese forces.


If you can let the disorganized Philippine army regroup and work off some of it's initial disruption-this helps. Supply is critical (as mentioned above). If you can keep the level bombers off of your airfields and / or ports, you can build forts and the engineers won't be busy filling in bomb holes on the tarmac.

Having functional fighter airframes is important too. See if you can 'upgrade' one of the P-40 groups to P-39s while you have supply. You're diversifying your airframe demands that way.

Get rid of the B-17s-they're largely worthless there right now. Send them to the DEI and train 'em up. Once Luzon is surrounded, you can also get rid of the patrol planes. You don't need to keep close tabs on enemy surface ships that you can't do anything about anyways.

Clark has terrain advantages and is a great airfield for your primary fighter base. Dig deep. Manila is nice, but is 'light urban', so doesn't afford quite the terrain advantages. Hold Bataan lightly, IMO. The Japanese cannot assault it by amphibious means because of Correigador.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 8:54:46 AM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		You might want to have a look at Leandros' "Rookie AAR". He starts with the premise that the Allies should have put every effort into keeping the Philippines from being overrun. His strategy (based on actual war plans) was to develop a line of communication from Australia up through the Moluccas to Mindanao.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3840708


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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 9:19:25 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Seathom

I am still in the process of starting my first game, which will be the campaign game as the Allies. It seems from what I've read on the forums, giving up the Philippines is part of standard play. Does anyone feel that the Allies can hold it? IRL, it certainly seemed plausible if the Americans had reinforced the area (especially with aircraft) right away as I believe they slightly outnumbered the Japanese forces.


The Philippines were, after all, held for five months with very little assistance from the outside. Mindanao, in particular, has potential for reinforcements. The Japanese problem on the Philippines was that the same forces were planned in a row of consecutive operations. Stop it in the beginning and they are stalling. You need to keep the route through the Moluccans open. Ambon and Menado.

Fred

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 10/23/2016 9:38:02 AM >

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River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 9:25:17 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You might want to have a look at Leandros' "Rookie AAR". He starts with the premise that the Allies should have put every effort into keeping the Philippines from being overrun. His strategy (based on actual war plans) was to develop a line of communication from Australia up through the Moluccas to Mindanao.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3840708


Thank you, BB - not "every effort" - about one third of the Dutch air and naval and what was available of the Australian. Little British until after Singapore fell.

Dutch ground forces were only withdrawn to Denpasar, Bali, after Sumatra and Java for the most part were "gone".

It took many months before I "touched" Burma and China. I see now that I could have made a lot of additional problems for the opposition if I had.

Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 10/23/2016 9:52:25 AM >

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River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 2:06:28 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game

Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 3:06:18 PM   
HansBolter


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Status: offline 		Java is not the place to hold. Southern Sumatra is far better. Less invasion beaches and Palembang is swamp terrain. I'm playing scenario 40 and Palembang just fell on September 3rd, '42.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 3:36:36 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Seathom

I am still in the process of starting my first game, which will be the campaign game as the Allies. It seems from what I've read on the forums, giving up the Philippines is part of standard play. Does anyone feel that the Allies can hold it? IRL, it certainly seemed plausible if the Americans had reinforced the area (especially with aircraft) right away as I believe they slightly outnumbered the Japanese forces.


Not against a good human player. Vs the AI, I don't know.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 5:06:50 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Seathom

I am still in the process of starting my first game, which will be the campaign game as the Allies. It seems from what I've read on the forums, giving up the Philippines is part of standard play. Does anyone feel that the Allies can hold it? IRL, it certainly seemed plausible if the Americans had reinforced the area (especially with aircraft) right away as I believe they slightly outnumbered the Japanese forces.


Not against a good human player. Vs the AI, I don't know.

It depends a good deal on the version of AI you are playing - vanilla stock AI is not good at concentrating forces to overcome resistance so when you contest one of its targets it throws in reinforcements piecemeal and often with inadequate escorts. Pax Mondo plays Ironman Nasty Nasty version and says it gives a real challenge - and he is a very experienced player.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 5:39:58 PM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
It depends a good deal on the version of AI you are playing - vanilla stock AI is not good at concentrating forces to overcome resistance so when you contest one of its targets it throws in reinforcements piecemeal and often with inadequate escorts. Pax Mondo plays Ironman Nasty Nasty version and says it gives a real challenge - and he is a very experienced player.

Actually, I'm quite impressed by the AI. The way he continued to press the defenses of PM both on land and at sea. The drawn-out struggle in the Malaccan Strait, he is
just coming back again and again. Presently, he is losing his bite, May '43, but he really should with the number of airplanes and ships he has lost and the blockade of the South
China Sea and The Philippines. I agree on his often lacking in escorts. OTH, in RL, the covering escort forces were often kept in the background. I have inflicted much
of his losses by sudden attacks on his transports. Destroyers are the most efficient but it must be checked that they have their torpedo armament intact before going in.


Fred


< Message edited by Leandros -- 10/23/2016 5:52:09 PM >

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River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 5:49:44 PM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Java is not the place to hold. Southern Sumatra is far better. Less invasion beaches and Palembang is swamp terrain. I'm playing scenario 40 and Palembang just fell on September 3rd, '42.


I saw to withdraw Dutch forces to Denpasar, Bali, before it was too late and reinforced with Anzacs and some US. Still holding in May '43 and he has seemingly given
up. I didn't touch the British forces for a long time, resulting in reserves building up in India. I then reinforced Sabang as much as I could and he never managed
to take it. Churchill would have loved that. Sabang was his pet child but his generals never allowed it. Now the British forces are soon half-way down Sumatra.

"Hit them were they ain't."

Fred

< Message edited by Leandros -- 10/23/2016 5:52:35 PM >

_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 6:44:37 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Java is not the place to hold. Southern Sumatra is far better. Less invasion beaches and Palembang is swamp terrain. I'm playing scenario 40 and Palembang just fell on September 3rd, '42.


Interesting observation about Sumatra being superior as a place to hold. With all due respect, I think there are a number of redoubts that can be carved out of the DEI.

Java has a number of advantages that Sumatra does not: repair shipyard, two good sized ports and airfields, two hexes of non-malarial terrain, a good port on the IO side from which to transship fuel to Australia and import troops and material, access to HQ units, etc.

We'll have to see if I can hold Java past September, 1942. I think I shall.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 6:45:49 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game

Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.


Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 7:53:10 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		If you have the correct assets in place, you can really take it to early Japanese aggression in the DEI




Attachment (1)

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 7:58:08 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
If you have the correct assets in place, you can really take it to early Japanese aggression in the DEI

Ouch! how did he even fit this many troops on these ships )

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 10:38:26 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		I think that was an entire infantry division carried in strategic movement on xAPs. They were big 'uns. Were.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/23/2016 11:04:39 PM   
rustysi


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quote:

Not against a good human player.


Nuf said.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 9:48:53 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?
Canoerebels are always good and his current one is no exception. Jockmeisters too. Both of them have moved in fits and starts but seem to be pretty steady of late

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 10:01:38 AM   
sprior


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< Message edited by sprior -- 10/24/2016 10:03:15 AM >

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 10:02:47 AM   
sprior


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game

Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.


Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?


What's wrong with our AARs? We even won a game.

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"History started badly and hav been geting steadily worse."
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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 10:37:13 AM   
Shark7


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

If you have the correct assets in place, you can really take it to early Japanese aggression in the DEI





This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same bad results.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 11:05:42 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7

This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close
to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same
bad results.

Much like the Japanese did in real life, then.......which wasn't always exploited properly by the Allies...Guadalcanal, Port Moresby.

Why give the AI a chance? Much of the Japanese successes came about because they WERE given a chance. But, that is just my opinion.

Fred


_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 11:06:20 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: sprior


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game

Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.


Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?


What's wrong with our AARs? We even won a game.


Absolutely nothing wrong with your AARs, mate. Especially since they're the self-professed "worlds' worst AARs". I love 'em.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 11:18:17 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7
This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same bad results.


Technically, this was the AI's first effort to take Ternate with two IDs worth of troops.

But it's exquisitely germane to the OPs question. Against a human opponent, this would likely never happen. Against the computer, it's possible to drop the entirety of the DEI invasion on its head. Which makes it possible to salvage the Philippines for the vast majority of players (those that exclusively play against the AI). The first thing I have to do to salvage the Philippines is to delay and / or deflect additional southern Japanese expansion in the DEI.

I also differ from the 'play as historical as possible' for the AI to have a chance. It's the whole butterfly effect writ large. If I get a lucky roll on a surface intercept and wipe up KB accidentally, should that be my problem? If, in my game, an old S-boat puts 2 tin fish into Zuikaku and she explodes in early January 1942, should I feel ashamed? Should I permit ahistorical IJN Kido Butai thrusts at random points in the Pacific? Must I not touch the game controls until Japan's full expansion in May 1942?

Other than learning the game interface, the raison d'etre of the AI is to get beaten. Badly. HOW badly one can brutalize the AI is the active question. I intend to find out.

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RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 11:37:53 AM   
Leandros


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


Technically, this was the AI's first effort to take Ternate with two IDs worth of troops.

But it's exquisitely germane to the OPs question. Against a human opponent, this would likely never happen. Against the computer, it's possible to drop the
entirety of the DEI invasion on its head. Which makes it possible to salvage the Philippines for the vast majority of players (those that exclusively
play against the AI). The first thing I have to do to salvage the Philippines is to delay and / or deflect additional southern Japanese expansion in the DEI.

Ref you mentioning Ternate (Moluccans?), I experienced the same but only after he was denied taking Menado. You, know, in RL much of the same forces were supposed
to be used against the various Moluccan Allied bases. If you destroy the Menado landing force (and the one invading Davao before that), he won't have anything left
to take Ambon. Ambon and Menado are crucial. Would have been the same in RL. He would have to do the same as he did when the taking of Bataan was stalled, wait till
he can take forces from else-where. Same with the forces that finally took Bataan, they were transferred from Malaya after the fall of Singapore. If Singapore had
held up these forces would not have been able for the capture of Bataan - and Corregidor.

And Mindanao was not attacked in earnest before after Bataan fell. Talking about Domino effect....

Just my opinion.

Fred






< Message edited by Leandros -- 10/24/2016 12:03:26 PM >

_____________________________

River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D34QCWQ/?ie=UTF8&redirect=true&ref=series_rw_dp_labf

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Post #: 26
RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 2:59:01 PM   
Macclan5


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

My goal is to break the AI and win the game (for the Allies) in 1942. Anything short of that is a failure for me. I'm playing scenario 1 with 'historical' difficulty.



Curiosity from a newish player ?

Not to critic just an understanding.

You exactly mean: Invade the Home Island and occupy Tokyo by the end of 1942 ? No Atom Bomb will be available of course.

You are not referring to a victory point margin ?

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Post #: 27
RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 3:18:30 PM   
Macclan5


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leandros


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shark7

This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close
to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same
bad results.

Much like the Japanese did in real life, then.......which wasn't always exploited properly by the Allies...Guadalcanal, Port Moresby.

Why give the AI a chance? Much of the Japanese successes came about because they WERE given a chance. But, that is just my opinion.

Fred




I fully agree with Ser Chickenboy and Leandros.

To play passively through 1942 would frankly be extremely boring for either side.

As the Allies : To sit back and take it on the chin, underestimate your opponents, adopt unrealistic tactical plans with political considerations (i.e. ABDA), etc, etc, ad naseum. Why?

The purpose of the AI (regardless of level) is to be defeated by the application of superior supply management, exploitation of weakness, and better combined tactics.

All of course with a slight advantage called "perfect hindsight"

--

I may be a bit of an apologist for the AI but frankly I think it is wonderful in light of the "slight advantage" of perfect hindsight.

Is it linear ? Yes - its a script. It will try to achieve the same objective over and over till it cannot.

But it manages hundreds of orders each turn with thousands of variables. Its has 13(?) random levels of aggressiveness that you will not be sure of till into the game. It can / should be exploited in its linear thinking; however it will effectively punch and counter punch / raid to your own objectives ~ at least in my experience.

(August 1943 - PDU off - Historic / Hard difficulty alternating month by month)

Can you hold the Philippines ?

Evidently yes (but I cannot yet).

In fairness to the real world situation at the time; this would be an 'all in gamble' in supporting MacArthur and company with most or all available US assets months after Pearl Harbor. Ships scattered. Merchant Marine prepared to risk their very lives every run. Even with PDU on you would only have limited assets that were available and production was not ramped up. Your enemy has air superiority qualitatively at the very least.

If CICPAC won that "all in the Philippines' argument with the combined Joint Chiefs of staff I would think a 2000 Political / Victory Point penalty would be an appropriate expenditure of achieving that consensus ???




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A People that values its privileges above it's principles will soon loose both. Dwight D Eisenhower.

(in reply to Leandros)
Post #: 28
RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 3:27:15 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5
You are not referring to a victory point margin ?


I am referring to a VP 3:1 (Allies: Japanese) margin by the end of 1942. This in and of itself will be challenging. If I lose either Luzon's LCUs or Singapore's LCUs, that's a chunk of points that I have to treble to offset. If I lose those, it may *not* be possible to get 3:1 Allies: Japanese VP margin even if I hold Java-I'm not sure.

The invasion of the home islands and their successful occupation by the end of 1942 may be asking a bit much-even against the AI. I'll keep you posted though.

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(in reply to Macclan5)
Post #: 29
RE: Holding the Philippines - 10/24/2016 5:05:21 PM   
Alpha77

 

Posts: 2116
Joined: 9/24/2010
Status: offline 		Chickenboy I know you are much better and experienced commander, but I tell ya even in my 1st game I was able to win vs. the IJ AI, I believe the message came in 43 tho. But you can do it in late 42 you are right. The AI will "lose" it after the offensive actions are done for the Japanese then it will become "clueless" what to do so to speak But it still can be fun to reach a certain goal vs. the AI too. Also I suck mostly in nav combat (as my current PBM shows) but I can not remember to have lost many cruisers let alone BBs or CVs vs. the AI

In my 2nd game IJ vs. Allies I can only remember to have lost 2 CAs vs the Force Z (which was NOT sunk by planes) right at turn 2 or 3...the AI would even save its ships somehow they got back to Aden, but also somehow the AI never managed to repair them fully and they never were seen again (I mean POW and Repulse)...

Btw. to defend the Phils send supply and fighters there, the AI will send waves of bombers even if escorted you can shoot them all down. Edit2: Also it is possible the AI will not move its stack as "one" but the faster units (tanks) move ahead. You can beat those singly units if you use ALL of yours to sally out of Manila or Clark etc. Then move back in fast ofc.

Edit3: I do not wish to bash the AI in this game so much, after all any strategy game out there has the main problem with the AI and it is really good for beginners or to have a faster game :)

< Message edited by Alpha77 -- 10/24/2016 5:41:22 PM >

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 30
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