crsutton
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quote:
ORIGINAL: obvert
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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
4. Sabang, Sumatra, finally capitulated in July 1943...just after Allied operations commenced in NoPac. The diversion had continued longer than I'd originally thought possible.
Still amazing to me that you now call this 8-10 division thrust into the enemy's centre as a diversion!! 
No need to respond, I get the rhetoric. 
We've been over it before, and so I read back at posts in the days just after you landed in Sumatra. A very different stated intent and tone about the op then. I don't want to start an argument, though. All respect to your play, it was just a risky op. As then, I just want to highlight that good play isn't always fore knowledge of these kinds of very long-term goals, but reaction and adaptation to the opponent. In this you've played a masterful game.
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5. The sequence of operations in the Pacific - Circus, Carnival, Roller Coaster, Big Tent, etc. - has gone exceedingly well. By the four month anniversary of the fall of Sabang, I was back in the DEI in a major way.
6. The Allied position and OOB are both very strong now. I think victory is a matter now of execution. If I flub, or if John can disrupt or prevent execution, he still has a chance. But things look very bleak for him at the moment.
You've played this part of the game very well and exposed so many of John's weaknesses as a player. You set up a game where he could impale himself on your position, then you could rush into the void in strength. 
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7. John is focusing on counter-attacking and cordoning off Big Tent, but I think his focus is pretty narrow. He had a pretty well conceived plan to bushwhack Death Star at the Torres Strait. Had he succeeded, I'd have my hands full. There has been thinking and planning on his part, but I don't think he has the heart (morale) at the moment to give the game the kind of time needed to play effectively. Too many little things are slipping: the failure to identify and eliminate the PBY base at Satawal, his repeatedly sending merchant TFs into harm's way at Ambon and Darwin (admitting, at times, that this was due to oversights caused by work demands).
8. John is aggressive in a way that makes the game wild and fun for his opponent. Early on he keeps an Allied player on his heals as he pushes forward hard. He keeps doing that deeply into the game, reacting offensively to deep threats in ways that offer him high risk/high reward payoffs. When his efforts fail, he's in trouble, because he usually doesn't attend well to defense in depth. He's always reacting to the next emergency, rushing all assets to the latest hot spot. Had he a decided carrier advantage right now, that might be a viable strategy. But right now he's maintaining huge garrisons forward (Port Moresby, Milne Bay, Kwajalein, Ponape, etc.) in places that he can no longer afford to defend. While he might pull and inside straight and crush the Allied forces, it's more likely that he's leaving holes in his interior that can be exploited.
9. It's a heckuva lot of fun as an Allied player to face an aggressive foe who leaves holes in his interior.
10. Where do we go from here? The objectives remain: (1) attrit the IJ Navy; (2) threaten/interdict/sever the Japanese LOC between the Home Islands and the DEI; and (3) take bases from which to commence strategic bombing of the Home Islands.
Your objective 1) I still see more as a consequence rather than a goal. Firstly, knowing your opponent, and being very capable in using your opponent's aggressive carelessness to your advantage, the IJN will continue to bleed even if you do virtually nothing but hold in place.
Your objective 2) will make the first goal accelerate. If there is no fuel for the economy, for the IJN, there will also be no supply to run air strikes or to maintain armies. The remaining IJN will be forced to move back to the HI where there may be some stored fuel, and you'll have free reign to wreak havoc from New Guinea to China. It'd be nice to land on the Chinese coast, supply your massive and intact Chinese armies, and get multiple bases for 3) on a massive landmass you can easily protect, and at a shorter range to the HI.
In the end, I don't think it matters so much what resulted. Sumatra came at a big price but the Allies player's focus should be on taking the initiative from the Japanese player as soon as possible. With John that happened as soon as Dan invaded Sumatra. He never found a way to get it back. That really was the key to this game. Japan is bound to lose the initiative but the aim is to hold it long enough to prepare for the Allies onslaught. John was out of balance and never caught his breath. Against another player Dan's plan might have been a total disaster. But you always play the man, that dictates your reason.
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