jmax
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Joined: 12/5/2016
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I'm rebuilding this scenario from scratch since I made a lot of rookie mistakes the first time through. "I'll just start with a small scenario", I said. Whoops...
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This scenario assumes an erratic Trump presidency and seemingly intractable conflict in the Middle East have drawn substantial US forces away from the Western Pacific, emboldening the PRC to pursue an aggressive policy aimed at regional hegemony.
Alarmed by events on the mainland and rocked by scandal at home, the Taiwanese surprise everyone by abandoning the established Pan-Blue and Pan-Green coalitions and delivering a landslide victory to the New Flower Party (NFP).
Though Taiwan’s new President denies any designs on a formal separation, she proposes an amendment to its constitution officially changing its name to the Republic of Taiwan, which the People’s Republic maintains is the functional equivalent of declaring independence.
The amendment passes a referendum and is enacted into law, but the mainland does not take the news sitting down. Citing “internal chaos” arising from the NFP’s provocative rejection of its ‘One China’ principle, and with reference to its 2005 Anti-Secession Law, China declares the airspace over Taiwan a Total Exclusion Zone (TEZ) and announces its intention to mine Taiwanese shipping lanes.
Miscalculations on all sides with respect to US public opinion, political will, and ambiguous policy regarding Taiwan's defense, have led to a staring contest where neither side is willing to blink first. The PLA mobilizes, while US Carrier Strike Groups are dispatched to defend the country formerly known as the Republic of China…
******************************TOP SECRET (Z)*******************************
FM: NCA WASHINGTON DC
TO: CDR USPACOM
INFO: CNO WASHINGTON DC
PREC: FLASH
SUBJ: TAIWAN STRAIT
I. SITUATION:
SIGINT suggests PRC attack on Taiwan imminent. For political reasons we must not be seen to fire first, but you are authorized to conduct limited strikes on southern mainland should hostilities erupt.
A. ENEMY:
PLARF possess vast arsenal of SRBM and MRBM, mostly aimed at ROC, and smaller number of IRBM. Maximum range of PLARF ASBM capability unknown but expected to encompass Guam, however most long-range assets likely to be deployed as far from coast as practicable.
PLAAF preparing to launch UAV strikes from coastal bases in Fujian. Long-range bombers operating from underground facilities inland. Regular air patrols operating from bases in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces.
East Sea Fleet assembling large SAG at Zhangjiang—disposition uncertain, likely intended for close blockade. Preparations for amphibious assault underway but not far advanced. North Sea Fleet dispatching ASW task force comprising at least 2x Sovremenny-class DDG and 2x frigates of unknown type, along with unknown number of corvettes and other small craft.
Upwards of 20x SSK and at least 2x SSN thought to be operating in littoral areas, some armed with YJ-18 ASCM posing serious threat to surface forces. PLAN may deploy SSN in Philippine Sea, either as passive sonar picket or to attack your CSG, however this is considered unlikely. IMINT shows large numbers of older SSK leaving port yesterday loaded with mines.
PLANAF bombers and multirole aircraft operating from surface and underground facilities in Hainan, Guangxi, and Zhejiang provinces. Disposition uncertain—likely mix of standoff-capable LACM and ASCM in preparation for strikes on ROCN. Regular air patrols and interceptors operating from bases in Hainan.
B. FRIENDLY:
Armed forces of the Republic of Taiwan, formerly Republic of China, are well prepared and motivated but resistance to full-scale invasion expected to last no more than 30 days absent foreign intervention. For sake of convenience, old acronym 'ROC' will remain in use.
Australia, New Zealand, and all ASEAN member-states except the Philippines disavow any support for the unilateral and destabilizing actions of Taiwan's government. Philippine government has yet to make official statement but permits overflight for now.
PRC applying significant diplomatic pressure to forestall Japanese intervention. Japan's Prime Minister expressly forbids attacks from bases on Japanese home islands, but overflight is permitted and ground-based radar and maritime patrol aircraft are closely integrated into Blue air defences.
C. WEATHER:
Temperature 28° C, high humidity, moderate low-level clouds and light precipitation over target areas. Sea state 3 (Slight).
II. MISSION:
Defend Taiwan while screening withdrawal of vulnerable forward-deployed forces in Japan.
III. EXECUTION:
A. CONCEPT OF OPERATION
Neutralize PLA A2/AD capabilities in western Pacific prioritizing SSM and ASBM reconaissance-strike complex by destroying or disabling key C4ISR nodes.
B. MANEUVERS
Mass defensive firepower of surface units and standoff from coast as far as practicable, using air-refueling tankers to extend range of carrier-based aircraft. Maintain continuous CAP over USFA Sasebo and Kadena AFB.
C. TASKS
2x SSNs and 1x SSGN of SUBRONs 15 and 19 tasked with disabling OTH radar sites.
1x DDG and 3x LCS to maintain passive radar picket off Ryukyu islands.
CSG 5 to assist in defense of Taiwan at commander's discretion.
D. COORDINATING INSTRUCTIONS
2x B-2A Spirit of AFGSC chopped to your command for use against hard targets.
Possibility of preemptive ROC attack on PRC forces
V. COMMAND AND SIGNAL:
A. FLAG: USS Blue Ridge
B. SIGNAL: EMCON State B - Limited Emissions
< Message edited by jmax -- 12/23/2016 12:00:58 AM >
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Breaking the Chain: Western Pacific, 2020 [WIP] - 
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