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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/20/2016 10:35:54 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		231 Bde scampers back towards the ports! Hopefully will regret (a very little bit admittedly) trying to hold that line on a shoestring. Totally unnecessary when he has so many divisions at hand and he'll have to bring one back now, so one less for the invasion. Small victory, no real chance for a follow up at this point, though if this was in a couple of turns I might have sent some recce to see if everybody else left already and there might have been a bigger opportunity. But he would also have been better dug in. The 1 VP gained from the 625 casulaties is 5mins of bombing points but it tastes sweet.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/20/2016 11:01:24 PM   
Gunnulf


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Helpless

What is current VP status?


Here is the tally. Unless (unlikely) I keep him off the mainland then I suspect this is heading towards a major allied victory. QBall is a savvy operator and has everything pretty locked down, bar the odd chink I have found.

I used the JG300 groups early on a bit over Essen, they seemed to add into the mix ok, but they couldn't run day and night. The number of raids seemed to run up fatigue pretty fast. Now I am so short of day fighters I can't spare them for that role. In other games for sure I have used them to do the proper Wilde Sau role. I tried night intruder a bit early on but zero kills. Maybe I wasn't utilising it enough, or maybe not setting up right.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/21/2016 11:41:37 AM   
Helpless


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quote:

I tried night intruder a bit early on but zero kills. Maybe I wasn't utilising it enough, or maybe not setting up right.


Good recon data on enemy AF is very important pre-requisite for the night intruder mission.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/21/2016 1:34:49 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Aha, that makes sense. We were flying over using maps from Sept 1940. There are a lot of new airfields been built since then. I'll have another experiment soon, hopefully we don't lose too more recon pilots than we shoot down :)

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 9:46:29 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Turn 12 - 18 Sep '43

Invasion count - 0
Weather - Rain, but forecast clear next week
Interesting recon - plenty
Axis - DE IT HU RO BG FI

So, its wet down south which might be delaying him, or maybe its taken longer for him to re-target his preparations than I thought. Or maybe he wants to finish Sardinia before he launches to have those last closer airbases. But too much longer and we are into October with higher chance of worse weather. Not that it will stop him but its a consideration.
This is the first time I've seen him a) do recon on places other than the railyards and airfields he is bombing, but now he looks to be poking around the Rome area and the tip of the boot, and 1 hex in the SE of Corsica which is clearly exactly where I've always suspected he will land here b) do significant interdiction, but now doing some at the tip of the boot. Makes me think he is about to do something that he thinks will make me want to leave Sicily
Also his naval patrols drop right off, except some weird new light naval patrols with 10 Wellingtons north of Bari. I'm sure that will make sense soon, but otherwise I conclude everything that he wants to be shipping around is already in place, and he is resting his air. When it comes I suspect we'll see concurrent invasions in Corsica and Anzio but now I'm wondering whether he spares 1 or 2 TF for the Bari or Brindisi area to mop up down here. He's already shown he is happy to spread out, and if he gets ashore he certainly is not short of divisions to pump in to follow up.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 10:33:09 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Sicily,

Unperturbed he orders a weakened 231 Bde back into the line at 1CV strength. Maybe everybody else already left...

Sardinia

Bit of the breakthrough in the centre, as expected. We have a last defensible (well, clearly it won't hold but you know what I mean) line of of rough terrain outside Olbia. This will fall this week, latest next and our work here is done. Once Sardinia is gone then we will no doubt trigger an Italian surrender roll. Holding out until nearly the end of September was about all we could hope for I think. Better than giving him this unsinkable aircraft carrier in July. I might be able to sneak out a regiment or 2. Other than 90 PzGn no division was fully committed and there remains a cadre to build around on the mainland in the future. Was it worth it? I'd be interested to hear opinions. Mixed emotions myself, but of course it really depends what happens next.

Reich

QBall reaches his 20VP per turn already from bombing. The usual from Bomber command in the Ruhr, and 8th AF hits Stuttgart, Nuremburg, Regensberg, Schweinfurt. This is 8th Air force on the rampage now really, certainly not licking its wounds and switching to France any time soon.
Losses for him pretty negligible; 7 x B17, 14 x B24, 11 x Lancaster 15 x Halifax 5 x P38 2 x P47. Ours 73 x Bf109 8 x Bf110 19 x Fw190. We haven't used any replacements other than trained pilots and numbers looking pretty pathetic now I think.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 11:01:30 AM   
EddyBear81

 

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From: Lille, France
Status: offline 		I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 11:02:25 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Losses

I've been meaning to do this for a while, I have another Axis game running, a little bit further along in early Nov43. I used similar tactics with much better effect. My opponent used a more historic strategy of large raids. He's a good opponent, certainly experienced. Pulling in a respectable 12VP a turn from bombing. But look at the difference in his bomber losses. Its 7 turns further along but I really don't expect I'll have downed, for example, 650 of QBalls B17's by the time we reach November. But crucially in this other game I have nearly double the number of fighter crews available in the Reich in November as I do in Sept in QBalls game. I have clearly been royally raped here in very short time. In both I avoided getting into dogfights with Fighter command over Essen, both have brought P38s to NW Europe. But the micro-raids seems to have been the major difference.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 11:16:51 AM   
Gunnulf


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quote:

ORIGINAL: EddyBear81

I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?


I tend to agree obviously. Its a bit harder when the Allies turn up on turn2 as happened here, otherwise even a few turns to prepare make a big difference to how long you can tie them down on Sardinia I think. But also coming in this sort of strength it was impossible to do more than slow him marginally. On balance I think its still worth it and certainly he had to adjust his plan at least a little. In a parallel universe if I hadn't invested here I fully would have expected him to be in Rome already and me sitting on the Gothic line. This also might have opened up the chance for him to even land in Southern France in winter before he pulled his TFs back to prepare for Overlord.

Re. the Bf109G, I don't think its such a bad fighter on balance, I mix up some with 20mm pods and some without to be honest. Certainly in the Med where I expect to fight other single seaters they stay slick. Over the Reich I'll use more with pods to try to up the firepower against bombers. But clearly I am proving less savvy in the air than I thought I was... :)

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 12:02:56 PM   
EddyBear81

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf


quote:

ORIGINAL: EddyBear81

I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?


I tend to agree obviously. Its a bit harder when the Allies turn up on turn2 as happened here, otherwise even a few turns to prepare make a big difference to how long you can tie them down on Sardinia I think. But also coming in this sort of strength it was impossible to do more than slow him marginally. On balance I think its still worth it and certainly he had to adjust his plan at least a little. In a parallel universe if I hadn't invested here I fully would have expected him to be in Rome already and me sitting on the Gothic line. This also might have opened up the chance for him to even land in Southern France in winter before he pulled his TFs back to prepare for Overlord.

Re. the Bf109G, I don't think its such a bad fighter on balance, I mix up some with 20mm pods and some without to be honest. Certainly in the Med where I expect to fight other single seaters they stay slick. Over the Reich I'll use more with pods to try to up the firepower against bombers. But clearly I am proving less savvy in the air than I thought I was... :)


As your losses comparison shows, I think something has changed in the last versions of the game. I mean, the Luftwaffe seems to be a second rate air force from the beginning ! At least in 1943 they should be able to hold their ground against WA, and be defeated by attrition (which explains the futility of trying to dogfight over Essen, as you said: you could win most battles, but loose the war)
>> Currently, it is not what I experienced: you should avoid flying over the Ruhr, because if you do, you are crushed (like 1 to 10 victory ratio against fighters). And if you retreat to central Germany, even long range P38 are able to destroy Bf109 like they are sitting ducks...

What are we doing wrong ? How to use LW fighters, and especially Bf109s, so that they at least have a neutral/slightly positive winning ratio against WA fighters ?

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 1:10:37 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		I'm not sure what to try next to be honest. As above loss comparison at least in 43 I was able to do some damage I think. This game not so much, and numbers of day fighters becoming a problem for sure. I think the problem might be that responding to so many small raids runs up fatigue quickly so in the later days of the week they are flying at a serious disadvantage against fresh Allied pilots. Thats just a feeling though.

We run some recce over the eastern Sicily area and sure enough the ports are stacked with troops. No doubt these are the 2nd wave, the assault troops will be in Africa of course. As a parting shot we hammer 231 Bde. 4 Arm Bde reacts in reserve but we prevail again wiping out a battalion of infantry and of tanks. Schmalz PzGn brigade is withdrawing this turn and the rest of the German are going to catch a ferry. The Italians can hold Messina until the surrender I suspect.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 2:01:43 PM   
loki100


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Status: offline 		are you defending the Reich via air directives or by letting the intercept routine move your fighters into combat as needed?

I've tended to the latter and usually find it perfectly acceptable but wonder in this case if it would be better to use ADs? My guess is that might concentrate your fighters into a smaller box ... ok you are then going to miss some raids completely but hopefully that will give you the numbers to completely overwhelm some raids. Any allied bomber that escapes should be damaged and thus out of action till their morale recovers?

only saying this as I assume there is a response to Q-ball's use of multiple small raids ... would be a pity if the game came down to having a single right way to play the strategic airwar.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 2:13:16 PM   
Helpless


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Status: offline 		There was no air combat changes in the code recently.

I downloaded a save and don't see Bf109 would be so bad performer. Best Bf109 group II/JG2 is on the third place with 64 registered A2A kills. Bf109 scored 968 A2A kills out 1777 total. Damage done by interceptors is also contributing toward all the numerous ops losses (1362).

Most of WA losses are A2A. Axis AA losses are higher, but if you exclude Axis Allies, they are about the same as WA.

His sorties count is declining and LW sorties per one loss is increasing.

He scored 141 bombing points per 11 Allies air phases, which is ~13-14 points per turn.


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 2:20:05 PM   
Helpless


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quote:

only saying this as I assume there is a response to Q-ball's use of multiple small raids ... would be a pity if the game came down to having a single right way to play the strategic airwar.


Small raid is not the only thing he might be using. In the last save I see lots of big raids as well (ex. 2 big raids on Danzig U-Boat, which got intercepted, but since he is choosing path for them really well second raid did quite a lot of damage).

Clever management can bring lots of benefits. Especially for the player with initiative.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 2:42:07 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Yes he does mix in the occasional big raids for the 8th Air Force. I'd say a ratio of 1 day in 3 is big raids perhaps but thats a guess from memory. QBall will in time be here to explain more, and of course its so far just evidence from my observations, and Helpless looking too of course. Certainly will be a more balanced discussion then I'm sure. Once the main invasion has passed will be a good moment for that I'm sure.

In terms of my strategy I have occasionally early on used some Air Superiority in order to avoid fighters straying too far west into the area Fighter command was operating, but I am further back now so just relying on intercept at 300%. However almost every raid has liberal P38 cover and they are doing good work. Only when they are occasionally missing do we have real success.


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 2:52:06 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Sardinia

On a more cheerful note I noticed that port damage in Olbia had repaired and we tried our hand to run the gauntlet as his naval patrols were relatively light too as noted above. 2 Regiments from 90 PzGn Div escaped to the mainland by sea, plus one regiment from 157 Gebirgs. We took this opportunity to say goodbye properly and also 2 Fallshirmjager and 1 Gebirgjager regiment flew out on transports who have been on standby for this moment. This will probably mean the island falls 1 week earlier but in the grand scheme I am ok with that. This leaves 1 Fallshirmjager, 1 PzGn Regt and the fortress brigade behind and I severely doubt I will get them out too, but compared to what I was expecting to sacrifice I'll chalk this up as a small triumph and vindication of the risks taken to slow him down. Hopefully QBall will be suitably furious :)

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 8:00:06 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Turn 13 - 25 Sep '43

Newsflash - The Allies land on the mainland!

QBall goes for 2 areas; the top of the toe and the Bari area. He has utilised 4 of his 6 TF, again 2 in reserve to surprise us with later. Defenses are light in both areas, mostly as the Italian corps there has been digging the Gothic line from as soon as it was clear he was shooting for an early Rome. Thats nearly finished, but we won't need it quite yet. Its good we forced him to change his plans which vindicates the Sardinia gamble. Of course we still need to worry about the other two TFs. These might either be aiming at Corsica or the Rome area. Impossible to say so we'll have to keep an eye on both.






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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 8:12:52 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Part of me is now a little disappointed that he didn't go for Rome now. We were kinda getting ready for him to land in the Anzio area. 10th Army was trying to form up within striking distance without giving away too much to air recon. II SS Pz Korps (1 SS Pz Gn, 10 SS Pz Gn, 12 SS PzGn & now 90(-) Pz Gn) to the north and LVIII Pz Korps (HG Pz, 14 Pz, 16 Pz & 26 Pz) camping out SE of Rome. I think we could have brought some hurt on the beaches but I guess we'll never know now. Any opinions on that? We'll have to cover Rome still obviously but otherwise the priority is to man the Volturno line. We prepared this just in case though always seemed likely it wouldn't be needed so no Gustav line yet. Maybe there will still be a chance to dig that quickly too.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/22/2016 9:15:50 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Status: offline 		AS few comments from an experienced WA player.

1) Bombing VPs are really nice in 43. I have gotten as high as 25/turn. But remember that on Jan 1, 1944 they are reduced. At that point the VP/turn will go down and the WA are doing really good to gain 15 VP/turn. The weather in northern Europe will also go really bad at about the same time and you will be able to rebuild your necessary industries without the threat of daily bombing. UBoat VP loss will go away, but the VW VP losses are much harder to prevent and can be quite high. With the new -1200 city VP there is no way you can do better than a draw with a strict strategic bombing only. The WA are now forced to invade northern Europe and capture some cities.

2) The weather in the Med is about to go bad. From about turn 17/18 til turn 26 or so the rain will keep the WA air reigned in and the effects of mud in Italy are really nasty. If the Axis can hold Rome until 44 then they have deprived the WA of a large VP bump capturing it. Remember that the City VP gain also goes down every six months so the WA will have a harder and harder time maintaining the City and Bombing VPs for each turn.

3) The turn the WA invade in northern Europe will see a -100 VP total between the initial landing and the next turn's losses. The WA never welcomes that loss but the only alternative to accepting that VP loss is to invade in an undefended area (such as Brittany) which will only lengthen the distance to Germany and all of those City VPs.

Overall, I think you are doing fine. QBall is behind his schedule in the Med. For a historical Northern Europe invasion force, all but two Naval Groups will have to transfer to the ETO by mid March. It comes faster than you think.

I have tried to move the tactical AF and units from the ETO to the MTO from the first. There are two problems with that. The first is that the WA get almost all of their reinforcements for 43 in the MTO anyways. The second is that the supply situation is just made worse with the additional forces. The one advantage for the WA in the MTO is the presence of existing Air Fields everywhere. It makes it easy to keep the WA air support within range of the front lines. This is more difficult in Northern Europe west of Paris and the Siene.

Another comment is that the WA Strategic Air War relies on accurate Strategic Recon. This is an area I have yet to master despite my continued attempts to do so. Still trying to figure it all out. Without accurate Strategic Recon, the WA think the targets are 100% damaged and they will not bomb them any further. So the WA can come out strong on the Strategic bombing war but then it tampers down.


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/23/2016 1:38:41 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Thanks Carlkay, much appreciated comments, and some useful thoughts. I even allowed a small hint of hope, as you are right the tough weather is not far off. It very much depends where his next 2 TFs have targeted I think. I have ceased flying day fighters for a couple of turns to re-build and re-organise. After 2 turns he may get complacent and allow us an ambush. The losses to B17s were about the same whether I flew or not anyway! :)

Down south I finished my turn. 4 Naval patrol directives isolate his Bari landings and those on the east coast. I'm sure he can re-establish this quickly but it seemed too obvious, that's an ideal choke-point on the heel and a flaw in his plan. Lets call that little operation 'Case Achilles'.... Sorry.
That, with a little interdiction by TaC gruppes, a last hurrah by the Italians before they surrender throwing up a light screen will hopefully add a week or so onto the time it takes him to reach the mountains.

Otherwise the 3 units in Sardinia are toast as the port and airbases are overrun. We can hunker down in the hills and live off olives until the inevitable fall. Might still be a couple of weeks though. Techincally holding into october would be a bonus, although now the mainland landings are in and the Italian surrender rolls are happening its less important, but still, it keeps his boys busy a while.

In Sicily its just the Italians in Messina now. A strong garrison, better than Palermo and he has less troops so they should hold out until the surrender too. I doubt he'll bother attacking even.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/23/2016 10:17:57 AM   
HunterICX


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Status: offline 		Great AAR and interesting developments so far,

Have this game for over a year now I still consider myself a novice reading up these AAR's with their tips and strategies and even just pondering on what to do and take in consideration is very helful.

Keep up the good work!


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/24/2016 2:28:37 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Turn 14 - 2 Oct '43

Pretty quiet to be honest. Rain in the Reich so we rest and refit and let Flak do its job for a change. He's still on 20VP for bombing but with the losses from fighting he only posts +7 overall.

Sardinia falls, but still no Italian surrender yet, though I still have the bulk of my forces away from his front line modifiying the roll, he will close up soon and i'm sure it will trigger soon. So until then we continue to put them to work, stalling the advance marginally as attacks on Taranto and Messina are both held, and probably more importantly helping dig the Gothic line. Meanwhile 10th Army occupies the first of the optimistically named 'Winter lines'. A mix of Fallshirmjagers and PzGrenadiers with armour reserves. We configured the army for hitting the anticipated Rome beachhead over holding the rough and mountains, but they should be up to the job. The biggest problem we foresee is his much larger than historic army means likely he will hit above Rome sooner or later. He still has 2 x TF and all he needs is to get ashore and a flood of divisions will no doubt follow, without really having to deplete the forces he has south of the Winter line forcing me to commit to keep this strong enough. I doubt I wil be able to marshall enough troops to be able to contain a beachead like Anzio was and no sure there is really a clever way to solve this without the EF box to push and pull about.

I do still worry about the free flexibility the Allies have here to bulk up, as I haven't seen any evidence he is suffering supply problems, despite being very cavalier about allowing most of his supply routes to be over contested seas. Does it even matter much? I try to secure these relatively but is it that important and do you have to bother? He has lost 30,000 vehicles, 50 Troop ships and 444 cargo ships (I guess thats relatively abstracted in terms of volume as thats 618,000 tons of shipping if its a typical Liberty ship, they made 2700 of them too so a pretty good job if I've sunk 20% of them in 3 months...! (i'm pretty sure its abstracted though...)). Question is, at what point do ship losses hurt? I'm quietly confident he is no-where close.

Thats pretty much it I think, more interesting stuff once he fans out from the boot I suspect.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/24/2016 2:45:23 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		A screenshot of D+7 for you, and the Italian skirmishing. A fair few hold across the board, but I think they will evaporate next turn, or latest thereafter. Pretty good to squeeze an extra month out of them, and Sicily still defiant and tying down at least a whole British Corps. Plus a sneaky peak at the corner of the real front line (seeing as its nearly christmas).




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/25/2016 10:22:22 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Seasons greetings! I suspect there will be a christmas ceasefire or my long-haired CO will court marshall me. However in between cooking turkey and sundries (domestic god, general extraordinaire, is there no end to my talents? Yes, apparently I am a terrible air marshall...) then I will quickly stitch today a couple of screenshots from yesterday.

Turn 15 - 9 Oct '43

The Italian finally throw in the towel. They had a good innings and I ran their air force ragged, though actually still a reasonable number of fighters and bombers left some with decent experience by the end. Sad to see them go and we wish them well in their new alliance. Apart from all the ones we interned obviously. Which is all but a couple of Brigades on Corscica, one already dispatched, one still outstanding. If we is going to hit Corsica then no doubt this should come immediately otherwise it will be winter soon. If not then that points towards a Roman riviera landing in preparation I would think...
Otherwise he has 1 weeks drive to the Gustav line at least, then shake out to attack and likely be mud so I can't see him making progress here anytime soon. I maybe should have made a play to extend the line to Naples but not going to risk it on the fly. Everything is dug in to level 3 in good terrain and where it should be, with tactical and strategic reserves. A couple more divisions wouldn't go amiss for sure but not much I can do about that. Bring it on!
The one exception for the keen-eyed is the division on the north coast, in open terrain and barely started digging in. Its 1 SS PzGn, due to withdraw in 2 turns and its a shame not to use it a little first. Its bait for him to attack and cause a few casualties hopefully. Or not, we'll see.






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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/25/2016 10:30:57 AM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Over the Reich

After a couple of weeks rest and re-organisation we activate Luftwaffe Reich again by day. Focused effort to catch 8th air force on the way to Berlin and back. The result? I'm not sure he will really notice we are back. A few of the intercept results screenshotted together. Even when outnumbered he bests us, only right close to Berlin when the P38s drop off to we start to get a few hits. Too little too late obviously and a drop in the ocean. Of course the difference between this and the real campaign is that as we know he relies heavily on P38s brought up from the Med theatre to cover the reich bombing by day.
Thats all folks.





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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/25/2016 10:07:04 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Turn 16 - 16 October '43

Simple to summarise, this turn QBall pretty much bombed everywhere in North Germany. Quite impressive really with 150 city bombing raids in total on a total of 47 different hexes, a new high. I've not been though all of them but they are 50 plane raids. Losses inflicted were maybe the best in a while with 98 level bombers, and 45 P38s, versus 67 Bf109s and 18 Me410s. Some quick maths puts that at at a 1.28% loss rate combined 8th AF & Bomber command. Hardly going to set the high command scurrying around for a new tactic due to overwhelming casualties. That its 47 different hexes for me makes it difficult for me to imagine this can be considered each wave as part of complex raid. This is not even a shotgun now, its a blunderbus! :)
I can't blame QBall, I've made plenty of mistakes which haven't helped my case and they are snowballing, but clearly the bombing experts have hit on the right formula to work the game mechanics to the best advantage to minimise intercepts, maximise escort coverage, increase interceptor fatigue and reap huge damage. Maybe if 8th Air force had adopted the strategy of fanning out everywhere in individual wing sized attacks on multiple different places in a free-for-all then they would have come back with 1-2% losses rather than 5-7% they sustained? Needless to say all the inteceptor gruppes in range (given the area, thats almost all) have fatigue between 57 & 84 as the bounce out and back each time, eventually no doubt asleep at the controls, underperforming in battles, increasing fuel use and operational losses. This has to be a big part of the difference between this game where I am getting raped, and the other where so far in '43 my air force has well over double the day fighter pilots remaining in Luftwaffe Reich?




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/25/2016 11:04:41 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Christmas sale! Invade 2 Islands and get your 3rd for free!

1 TF lands in NE Corsica, 45 US Inf Div coming off the ramps with what looks like a corps behind them. It would be tempting to pull another hard fight as clearly the mountain/rough terrain lends itself to a fight, especially with the weather about to turn. But I don't think I'd have such an easy job slipping away this time, I don't have Italians to soak up a few casualties, and anyway my 2 Mtn regiments were busy in the south where I expected the invasion as was also moping up the last Italian turncoat so no chance to contain the beachhead. Otherwise we had 4 security regiments in 'support' but they are not going to cut the mustard in a stand-up fight. This time he (accidentally on purpose?) left the door open on the west and we take the easy option to sail/fly out. Only 1 Sec Regt couldnt make it this turn but likely will next. Its not really worth the fight at this stage as he already has plenty of airfields in Sardinia that wil be useful to him,, and even if I delay him for a couple of months by the time he actually needs these they will be his, albeit not so expanded maybe. Overall trying to deny him the extra here have diminishing returns at this stage I think and he knows it so he has gambled on 1 TF and 1 corps ashore.
That he again leaves 1 TF in reserve does raise interesting questions. He likes to keep you guessing and on your toes and its a very good strategy, and one less beachhead is clearly not hurting his logistics.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/25/2016 11:28:52 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		The Winter Line

For somebody who was in a helluva hurry to get to Rome before QBall doesn't seem to have such an urgency closing with the defense line he no doubt knows is ahead. Historical hindsight is a wonderful thing! Looks like 1 SS PzGn will be shipping out to Russia before this kicks off. I'm sure they are overjoyed. I think in future I'll stick to the EF box on as its just too frustrating having units disapear. You have to send Mech units to Russia with it on or you will lose ground, but at least you have a little control over who and when. Never mind, its really the least of our problems. This line will hold for a while, and we have reserves off the line in case he decides to use than illusive remaining TF to land behind us. Its a bit weird as the Axis knowing exactly how many TFs are lurking out there does influence your decision making unnaturally, but on balance its a good system obviously and really doesn't help us knowing there are six anymore than so many other elements of any game that gets rehearsed with replays.
Anyway, in this case he seems to be paying a particular attention to the north coast. As the allies you might be tempted to see that north shore behind the Gustav line as worth a gamble even with 1 TF to save blood and treasure, particularly when its tempting to focus on Rome and the south coast as the threat. Good cover from the Foggia bases too. I'll be keeping at eye on this. But what is (relatively) clear is that unless he has been taking a long time to prep a single TF with multiple division then landings in the Rome area can be expected more likely when the Bari landings have recycled. Too much chance of getting hammered on 1 hex in such a critical area and ending up back in the sea. However, the count-down no doubt has already started...




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/26/2016 6:21:00 PM   
Gunnulf


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Status: offline 		Turn 17 - 23 Oct '43

I should have built the line around Naples and denied him the city points. His progress is much slower than I expected, perhaps for supply reasons.
QBall is doing a bit of recce now on the north and the south coasts of Italy behind the lines. It might just be psychological at this stage as I estimate that the earliest he can get a 2nd TF with 50prep points in a level 6 port is 13th Nov, and a 3rd the week after. Thats when we go from Amber to Red, but still a risk of a chance attack before then.
But the weather is starting to turn. The bombers over Northern Europe are grounded in heavy rain, and while the south is still clear that rain will extend as far as central Italy next week it seems.

The only question I am left mulling over this turn is whether to attack the only 2 Allied units we can see. The US Armoured division in open ground seems like a likely candidate despite the rivers... Once the air phase is done I'll take a closer look.




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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) - 12/26/2016 7:18:47 PM   
loki100


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From: Utlima Thule
Status: offline 		I'd guess that Naples as a freebie is a good reward for his southern campaign. It also solves your supply problems once it is running.

So I'd make it part of the defensive line or as an isolated stay behind defence.

As to the vp problem - here loss due to attrition - I've no solution but think even more complex rules would create even more problems.

Big issue here is I regard taking Naples as the natural end to the first part of the Italian campaign, so not surprised he is sitting back.

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