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RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 4:52:34 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Going out for dinner turned into errand running.

Am headed for bed without getting the turn done.

Want to do a survey. As I see it, here are the options:

1. Follow The Poultry Man's advice. We've smacked those units and have the initiative for the moment. Pull the 19th ID and return it to the Philippines having achieved a tactical victory.

Dan is showing no desire to save/interdict on behalf of his units.

2. Grab the 2nd Tank Div in Java and bring it over. The TWO Divisions could be enough to force a surrender at Makassar. This is where the units retreated to from Pare Pare. He has eight units at Watampone that are primarily engineers and base forces. Could move east from Pare Pare, take Watampone, and THEN move south to Makassar forcing the surrender of 20-30,000 troops.

The key is Watampone. If I could take that then he has NO airpower here. Makassar is still damaged and I can bombard it. Bringing in reinforcements--which he could do easily with the 1,000,000 ship in one hex TF--could only then be done at Makassar.

The possibility of racking this up as a victory would have to be within 7-10 turns. Right now his monsterous naval force is down in Normanton (I think...haven't seen it for three turns).

If I cannot pull this off then I shall have weakened Java and the Philippines. A victory drives his Bomber Base line back to Ambon.

This is a high-risk decision. It is my intention to sleep on it.

All you armchair Generals now have an opportunity for the next 9-10 hours to provide your opinions. Give me your thoughts and why or why not.

READER ROLL CALL--SOUND OFF!


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/29/2016 4:53:10 AM >

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Post #: 2701
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 4:54:13 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Forgot to mention that my convoy unloading at Manado got attacked by 27 SBDs. They were met by 32 Fighters. ALL of them were shot down for the loss of an AKL.

NICE!





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/29/2016 4:57:10 AM >

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Post #: 2702
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 5:10:14 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Here is a screenshot.

Allied troop dispositions:
1. South of Pare Pare--4 Units (just beat up and driven out) for 11,500 men.

2. Makassar has 4 Units with strength around 15,600. Base NOT repaired so that means NO FORTS.

3. Watampone has 8 Units with strength about 16,000. NO major ground assault force present.

4. There is 1 unit north of that on the east coast.

5. The base at the top of the bay has 3 units and strength around 6,000.

Japanese Strength:
1. 19th ID full strength: 460 AV

2. An Infantry Brigade (16th ID-B) and the 124th Regiment at Pare Pare with about 200 AV between them.

3. At Kolaka is a full strength Brigade with 240 AV. My AKs are already there and can lift it. It would take a day to load, two get to Pare pare and a day to unload.

4. The 2nd Tank Division is at Soerabaja with an AV of near 500. Have to retire from Pare Pare to Soerabaja, pick it up, and then bring it back. Best guess to do this would be 10 days.








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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/29/2016 5:11:50 AM >

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Post #: 2703
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 5:10:43 AM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I'm done. Let me know your opinions.


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Post #: 2704
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 11:45:15 AM   
adarbrauner

 

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline 		I think you acted too hastily and half hearted in Celebes.

I think you should have tried to go for DESTRUCTION of some land-soldiers allied units.

To achieve this, you should have conducted multiple landings to take over the port of Manado, the other northern one and the retreating route to Makassar southern of Pare Pare.

To do so, you should have committed from three to 4 times more force than the actual (well let's make 3 counting and relying on the war goddess's help).

Right now you have only caused casualties to the allies, besides a good blow to Canoe morale and a boost to ours (not a small thing or unvaluable...) and gained small time/delay caused on Enemy. Valuable, but small; without any further opportunity to exploit the situation with current forces deployed. ANY, let this be clear.

Best thing to do in current situation is to retreat the divison as fast as possible without waiting for Allied cavalry to approach and wait FOR NEXT FAVOURABLE SITUATION!

The alternative: can the latter proposed action be tried posthomously? Could you round up some two and a half divisions equivalents, organize the transports and relative escorts, etc etc to plan for three more landings in the intrested areas but being ready to eventually revert course at safety distance from Death Star when - and if - located approaching ??

I think that if you'll succeed in taking the above mentioned locations with sufficient troops, Death Star presence won't be able to avoid the fate of trapped Allied units and salve them. Plus, Canoe shall be forced to keep considerable aeronaval presence in the area to prevent the disengagement and retreat of the Army from West Celebes.

IN ANY CASE you'll have to plan and make all the arrangements for the retreat and retrieve of committed units in Celebes at first occasion and opportunity -if you've not done it already.


Oh, and in any case

CONGRATULATIONS and champagne for having downed 65 allied dive bombers in two days (for no losses).

YOOOOO-HOOOOOOWWWW



< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 12/29/2016 11:47:44 AM >

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 2705
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 1:45:05 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
The possibility of racking this up as a victory would have to be within 7-10 turns. Right now his monsterous naval force is down in Normanton (I think...haven't seen it for three turns).

If I cannot pull this off then I shall have weakened Java and the Philippines. A victory drives his Bomber Base line back to Ambon.

This is a high-risk decision. It is my intention to sleep on it.

All you armchair Generals now have an opportunity for the next 9-10 hours to provide your opinions. Give me your thoughts and why or why not.

READER ROLL CALL--SOUND OFF!


You've a small window with which to extricate your forces before all available airspace in the region is 'fogged in' by 1.0x10^6 allied aircraft in the uberTF you spoke of.

If you dither, you stand the chance that your ID will be caught at sea and savaged-the worst possible outcome. Alternatively, they may just be stranded and taken out of the war-yet another Japanese ID stranded from the inner defensive circle.

If you reinforce, you may cause the surrender of a smallish Allied force. But then you're right back where you started from in terms of having to extricate the ID and now an armored unit under increasingly tight air cover. For what benefit?

You've caused significant damage to the Allied offense here. Savor it. Keep your pre-existing base forces to forestall an Allied resurgence. Pick up the ID and bring it back to the Phillipines for some R&R. I hear that Correigador is nice this time of year.

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Post #: 2706
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 1:46:32 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Forgot to mention that my convoy unloading at Manado got attacked by 27 SBDs. They were met by 32 Fighters. ALL of them were shot down for the loss of an AKL.

NICE!


I love it. Butchering 27 SBDs for an xAKL? Any day of the week mate. Any day.

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Post #: 2707
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 2:19:44 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		CB is wise. He can't spell worth beans ("Correigador" ), but he is wise

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Post #: 2708
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 2:39:46 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

CB is wise. He can't spell worth beans ("Correigador" ), but he is wise


Spell check wouldn't help me out on that one, so I took a flier.

Especially disconcerting that I've actually been there and taken a whole ****load of pictures and tour of the island as well.

ETA: Spelling goose-steppers may stand down. The island's proper spelling is "Corregidor".

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 12/29/2016 2:41:18 PM >

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Post #: 2709
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 3:20:59 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		The Cochran Household is back up and moving.

To be honest about the whole Pare Pare Operation, I did not think it would work. Am still thinking on things. Dan has taken the day off to go hiking and this gives me the opportunity to take a breath and do some serious thinking.

I am going to run the turn and do an update after that.

The aggressive side of me wants to build on the victory. With NO SIGN of the 1.0x10^6 (Chickenboy--I LOVE that designation for Dan's insane mass conglomeration of shipping and CVs!) I have time to make a decision.

Have a half thought of making the one hex move south OR east and hit the Allies one more time. Could go to Watampone and crush those engineer units OR hit the four units I drove out of Pare Pare and force them into Makassar.

Going to keep thinking about it...

Will continue to listen to suggestions. REALLY appreciate your thoughts guys.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/29/2016 3:21:16 PM >

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Post #: 2710
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 3:22:06 PM   
John 3rd


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From: La Salle, Colorado
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

CB is wise. He can't spell worth beans ("Correigador" ), but he is wise


Spell check wouldn't help me out on that one, so I took a flier.

Especially disconcerting that I've actually been there and taken a whole ****load of pictures and tour of the island as well.

ETA: Spelling goose-steppers may stand down. The island's proper spelling is "Corregidor".



I remember those pictures you Posted from that trip. Bet that was an amazing experience!

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Post #: 2711
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 3:26:11 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I REALLY would like to force back the Allied bomber threat from Palembang as well.


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Post #: 2712
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 3:58:57 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I REALLY would like to force back the Allied bomber threat from Palembang as well.



Bear in mind he can bypass any obstacle.
The number of potential bases in range of Palembang would likely be impossible to cover adequately.

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Hans


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Post #: 2713
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 5:40:06 PM   
adarbrauner

 

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline 		If you're going to employ a full tank div you have to think very well in advance how to possibly then districate it out from the island.

and, if you're going to merely blast the enemy garrison there and no more, you cause few thousand casualties at best but no more than that, i.e. no destruction of the units.

Again, keep in mind that other favourable occasions SHALL come - if just you'll be ready and with a good plan on how to exploit them VIOLENTLY and QUICK (+ provisons about how to retrieve your forces at any favorable time after the action).

P.s.: when i mentioned "Manado" in the previous post, i meant Watampone clearly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3d
Have a half thought of making the one hex move south OR east and hit the Allies one more time. Could go to Watampone and crush those engineer units OR hit the four units I drove out of Pare Pare and force them into Makassar.


I'd suggest you not to waste time; such a move, by itself, won't yield a lot;
we learned; next time we'll perform a better counter-action, more decisive and better planned, on the style "hit very hard and quick, destroy and evacuate at first or best opportunity"


< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 12/29/2016 5:53:38 PM >

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Post #: 2714
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 5:42:36 PM   
adarbrauner

 

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline 		I'd like to write down a couple of thoughts regarding your position in China and Burma in the long term...

Maybe on next Sunday.

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Post #: 2715
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 6:04:00 PM   
Jellicoe


Posts: 157
Joined: 9/26/2012
From: Kent, UK
Status: offline 		You have given Mr. C a good jab and a bloody nose, enough to make him pause and think. You have revealed a significant air/land/sea force and derailed an offensive operation, were this 42 or 43 the follow up beating would be sensible, but this is 1944. To vaguely continue the boxing analogy, you aren't going to win on a knock out but you might on points if you keep jabbing and dancing back out of reach of his big fist. Time to run away like Mr, Chickenboy said

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Post #: 2716
March 1944 - 12/29/2016 10:15:26 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I have come up with a compromise. Want to hurt the enemy MORE but am very leery of getting caught with a full strength ID at risk.

PLAN:
1. The 19th ID will cross to Watampone and CRUSH it. This is quick. Two days to get over, then we attack, and then retire to Pare Pare or get picked up there. Naval Bombardment will aid the assault.

2. Lift the 32nd Ind Mixed Brigade from Kolaka to go to Pare Pare. This is 227 AV. Replace the Brigade with a full strength Naval Guard and South Seas Force (100 AV). Shipping present at each base for immediate move.

3. Lift the 19th Army HQ, 24th Ind Mixed Brigade (185 AV) and 2nd Guards-C (125) from Kendari. This will leave another full strength Brigade several artillery units and three Base Forces there. Shipping is partially there but more is already moving there.

4. The 87th Regiment (125 AV) at Manado is getting lifted right now and it shall move down to Pare Pare.

All this can be done with the shipping already present or nearby. The total time to get everything moved is less then 5 days. We'll then combine the shipping to then grab the 19th ID and return it to Java.

At the end of the move, there will be an additional 550-600 AV to go after a number of beat-up Allied units AND Java will actually grow in strength by moving the 19th there.

Until we see the Allied 1x10^6 then we can do this without crisis. The moment we spot the Allied juggernaut then we'll simply withdraw whatever is wherever and declare a tactical victory.

I am bringing in more bomber groups to aid the attacks. I cannot use them in the disaster that is Burma so I use them here without fear of Allied Fighters. He has pulled all planes out of Watampone and that is GREAT!



Decoy KB will hang in the area but I have additional plans for it. There are presently six fully loaded AOs at Cocos. I've quietly gathered 8 Glen I-Boats there and they just got ordered out to look for Allied convoys. If we spot one then the Decoy KB will be positioned to grab some easy Victory Points. How 'bout that?





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Post #: 2717
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 10:23:25 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		@ adar

Here is China:





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Post #: 2718
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 10:29:49 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Here is Burma. CHAOS! Japanese units in retreat throughout the area with fresh troops moving into position at the edge of the jungle creating a new line.

TOTAL air supremacy for the Allies presently.

Have two full strength larger Brigades (225 AV each) and two TK Reg landing in a few days to stiffen the resistance.


Engineers and other units moving all bases south to help with or begin Fort construction: Tavoy, Victoria Point, Thailand, etc...all have been building Forts since January 1st but these additional units will help speed that along.





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Post #: 2719
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 10:46:43 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

@ adar

Here is China:



You have a number of units set up in the clear one hex away from nice x3 territory.

Might be good at this point to move them into the x3 and get them building forts. They'll get crushed in the clear.

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Post #: 2720
RE: March 1944 - 12/29/2016 11:43:01 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		That is an EXCELLENT observation. Consider it done next turn.


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Post #: 2721
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 3:59:58 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Moving those China units as described above. Hope it doesn't set anything off...


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Post #: 2722
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 4:04:12 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		March 11, 1944

In a highly curious move, the 1x10^6 is spotted SW if Port Moresby moving AWAY from the DEI. What the heck?

There is still a ton of shipping at Normanton but it appears the Fast CV TF is moving away the Theatre of Operations. Does he want to open up the Central Pacific. That would takes WEEKS for them to get into position. Doesn't make too much sense.

Perhaps he is escorting out shipping so it is free and clear? Maybe...

During the Sumatra Battle he abandoned his troops to my Army/Navy. Would he do that in March 1944? Highly doubtful.





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/30/2016 4:06:30 PM >

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Post #: 2723
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 4:11:26 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		BUNCHES of air action today. Just as I THOUGHT he had abandoned his base at Watampone, four squadrons of fighters arrive and make life miserable for Japanese air. Lose about 25 Fighters and 30 bombers. The raids still get thru and damage the AF to 20% but that is about it.

This is a rather familiar feel to Sumatra. From Soerabaja 1 BB, 1 BC, 3 CL, and 9 DD raise anchor and head for Watampone. Am sending a couple of PT/MTB into the Watampone hex to check for mines and CD. If nothing happens then we shall BLAST that AF into smithereens. What is the best way to destroy Allied high-performance fighter? Easy answer. A bunch of 14", 16", and 18" guns!

BB Mutsu is within 10 days of repair completion at Singers. She will be added to the bombardment mix...

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Post #: 2724
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 4:16:28 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		Random Thoughts:

1. For those who have played this deep into a match, I have to comment about my surprise watching pilots and officers now being promoted nearly every turn. I've got 2-3 men each turn getting advanced in rank. Anything interesting about this? Not something I have noticed before.

2. Have also been noticing many 'lost' Japanese pilots appearing and/or escaping captivity. Nice but strange.

3. We bumped Political Points slightly when this Mod was created but boy-oooohhhhh-boy, I could use about double/triple the daily total.

4. I got asked a question of supply. The Home Islands is swimming in it presently. Tokyo alone has 1.3 million right now. I've been shipping out about 250,000 a month to Manila and Singapore to create decent stockpiles there and it isn't dropping my numbers appreciably.





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Post #: 2725
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 4:18:37 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		If the 1x10^6 continues out of the area then I am committing the 2nd TK to Sulawasi. There could be an opportunity to destroy another Allied army. The Victory Point boost alone makes it really tempting. I won't deviate from earlier plans until I am certain that a large window of opportunity exists.


< Message edited by John 3rd -- 12/30/2016 4:19:08 PM >

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Post #: 2726
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 7:12:41 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
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From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Burma is a trap for Japan after mid 43. The Allies just have too many options. Besides, with Ramree in his possession then once he takes Lashio the supply faucet will turn back on for China and the whole Chinese theater will take on a different bent. There is only one reason to fight in Burma for Japan and that is to stop supply from going to China. Once that happens then Burma becomes redundant and no longer serves a strategic purpose.

Every decision the Japanese player makes in 44 should weigh only the strategic considerations and not even look at the short turn benefit. Destroying 30,000 Allied troops at this stage of the war without a significant strategic gain is meaningless.

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Post #: 2727
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 7:51:15 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		That is why I held onto Burma as long as I have.

Also why that advice regarding moving my Chinese defenders to better hexes made a bunch more sense. Don't talk much about China but we've created three groups of units in North--Central--South China to act as mobile reserves. Each of these groups has at least two ID and 2 Brigades.

If Dan is leaving the DEI and I have a chance to pick-up all those units then I will take it. The VP at this late stage of the game will help considerably. If he turns and comes back then my losses are barely noticeable. Seems like a good scenario to me.

I got called into work so looks like there will not be a turn until later tonight.

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Post #: 2728
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 9:28:12 PM   
Bif1961


Posts: 2014
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From: Phenix City, Alabama
Status: offline 		Sun Tzu said you should attack the enemy when he is ebbing. It appears, if in fact his death star is pulling to the east side of OZ, he might be planning a few weeks of R&R to sharpen his sword for his next phase. This might be your window to pluck any low hanging fruit.

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Post #: 2729
RE: March 1944 - 12/30/2016 11:23:12 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

4. I got asked a question of supply. The Home Islands is swimming in it presently. Tokyo alone has 1.3 million right now. I've been shipping out about 250,000 a month to Manila and Singapore to create decent stockpiles there and it isn't dropping my numbers appreciably.



For supply many players have 2-3 million in Tokyo, and 5-7 million globally. It's important to conserve at this stage, especially when your oil supply is in danger.

Stocks in Singers and Manila sound good, but that is a lot per month to send.

You might also check to see you have good reserves of Armament and Vehicles points. A lot of new units arrive from 44 onwards. I just keep mine running on full throughout. If you're trying to save HI then turn off all xAK and most other naval and merchant ships, then turn off most shipyards. Good to have the E and maybe the APD, plus some of the better subs, but definitely turn off the transport subs. You probably have more than enough TK now too.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 2730
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