Slitherine

quote:

"The Japanese had two potential warplans drawn up at the start of the 2nd world war. One school of thought was the to choose the northern path (Hokushin-ron) the other was to choose the southern path (Nanshin-ron) of expansion. In the real world the Southern expansion route was chosen, to some extent because of the results of the Nomonhan incident, where the Soviet Union won a decisive victory. The battle there gave the supporters of the Southern expansion arguments enough to win the debate over which way to expand, and the rest is history...

But what if the Japanese had not lost at the Nomonhan incident, what if they had fought it to a draw, or even drawn opposite conclusions that the Soviet Union was simply too dangerous a foe to leave as a threat in their back yard while they expanded southwards. This scenario depicts just that.

A few other things would probably have needed to have happened for this scenario to unfold like it has been written. Among others the Japanese will have quietly left the occupied French Indochina, and thus have curried some favor with the Americans, preventing an all out oil embargo, which would be crippling to the Japanese offensive. Also Hitler would have had to make more than broad hints to the Japanese that they were going to attack the Soviet Union, and said it outright, to the Japanese delegations visiting Germany.

A plan already existed for the assault on the Soviet Union. That plan, would require the Japanese securing Vladivostok, and sinking the fleet there by air. Since Pearl Harbor never happened, the Japanese naval air would instead sink the Soviet Fleet in port. Securing the port, while not losing any other assets will allow for a Japanese minor victory.

The Soviet union is in the midst of a death struggle with Germany at this point in time. Reserves have been moved from the Far East to fight the Germans, and they are at the weakest they ever were in real life. This is when the Japanese attack, to cause maximum disruption. The Soviet Union will begin with forces that can barely cope with the Japanese attack, the situation does get better, especially in the west, where forces from the Transbaikal are moved in fast to counter the Japanese assault. It will be a race against time.

The map itself is made up of 40 km hexes, and the time scale is 7 days a turn. Navies have been omitted, as the Japanese navy was very much in favor of the Southern expansion route, and would be indifferent at best to the Imperial Japanese Armies adventures in the North. Instead it would guard the main islands against an attack from what would survive of the Soviet Navy. Especially the Submarines might cause troubles.

The date is August 1st 1941. What happens next, is up to you... "