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Invasion of Hawaii - 1/19/2017 6:41:44 PM

Sun Tempest

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I have just read an interesting what if article about the invasion of Hawaii in December 1941. As WitP:AE is the closest simulator of the real Pacific war, I am curios if has anyone tried (successfully or not) to invade Hawaii archipelago? Are there any AARs on this topic, esspecially against an human opponent?

Thank you!

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/19/2017 6:46:39 PM

Canoerebel

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Yes it's been done numerous time. Recent AARs include Lowpe vs. JocMeister (I think Joc stepped in for a previous Allied player after Hawaii fell; that AAR is on page one or two) and John III vs. NYGiants (that AAR is probably about page three or four).

An experienced IJ player who organizes well has a very good shot at taking out Hawaii. Some players don't think it's worth it. I do, under the right circumstances (i.e., a strategy aimed at auto victory and knowing how Hawaii can further that cause).

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 1:38:22 AM

John 3rd

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It is a lot of fun and a nail-biter to try and do it. Michael and I's game kept me on the edge of the seat while I tried to take the whole Hawaiian Chain.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 12:48:10 PM

TulliusDetritus

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quote:

WitP:AE is the closest simulator of the real Pacific war, I am curios if has anyone tried (successfully or not) to invade Hawaii archipelago?

Keep in mind players are using mods that boost the Japanese. It's Japan on steroids

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 2:07:40 PM

jwolf

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Keep in mind players are using mods that boost the Japanese. It's Japan on steroids

Good point. Has it been done with the standard vanilla scenario? I would guess so but I admit I haven't looked very hard for it.

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Post #: 5

RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 2:19:48 PM

TulliusDetritus

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Back in the Prehistory, I think a player did it (Amiral Laurent or something like that). This is old WitP vanilla. Look at the Japanese replacements (historical numbers in theory). Try some crazy stuff with that AND survive your trollish "offensives"...

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 1/20/2017 2:20:57 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 2:44:39 PM

Macclan5

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A number of these debates deal in the "what if".

WITP AE is an amazing tool / game that practically "operationalizes" millions of variables into a managable few 100

~ and allows players to experiment.

Its fun, enjoyable, interesting. Its challenging and intellectually stimulating.

But it is a game / tool and therefore not real; nor will the results in the game be a perfect predictor of what "might have been".

At the very heart of the matter any player must consider.

1) Operationalizing millions of details allows a player to "optimize" resources / troops / Navy / Airforce / Morale / Leadership etc etc etc

The ability of Japan or the Allies to optimize these millions of individual resources for perfect results in 1941 is of course beyond reality. Simplistic (and lack of) communication technology in itself would have prevented so much from happening. You are playing on a computer more powerful than the Voyager Space Probe past Pluto - they didn't have one

2) Marshaling / coordinating / deploying resources is done with "almost perfect" historical hindsight of the player.

This is the equivalent of having almost perfect 100% advanced intelligence on your opponents OOB and response. We know that is not possible in 1941.

3) As players we tend to accept the loss of "electron lives" militarily and even civilian wise I suppose (its indirect at best) to achieve our higher purpose.

There is easily a legitimate debate as to whether wither Japan or the Allies would accept the loss levels we might tolerate as computer players.

4) Finally there is a political imperative that may be role played but is not built into the simulation.

Would have the Imperial War Council accepted the risk / loss / reward trade off to invade Hawaii ? We have limited evidence that suggests they would not in regards to Ceylon or Northern Australia... but we can never know for sure...

--

Above all I recommend you play this amazing game and try it !

Have fun - experiment.. see what you could do better..

Just do not presume that one successful campaign (or even 1000) makes a scientific case to support "what might have been".

< Message edited by Macclan5 -- 1/20/2017 2:45:36 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 3:32:24 PM

TulliusDetritus

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

But it is a game / tool and therefore not real; nor will the results in the game be a perfect predictor of what "might have been".

If you don't mind I partially disagree. The vanilla game (work of the developers) must yes or yes simulate the real thing. I mean the real capabilities of the real counterparts. It's either that or the Twilight Zone.

Only after this consideration come the mods / modders. What people choose afterwards is not my problem, indeed. It's a free world. But the finished product must simulate what could be done by your historical counterparts. If it doesn't they failed to deliver a good product, that's all.

The good thing is that this game is multidimensional. The enemy can push in one side of the map. The juggernaut (aka the US) will simply push from another weird side.

In a bidimensional (East vs West) game like WitE these sort of fantasies are out of the question. I mean, the Germans cannot get to the Urals in 1941, 1942 or 1943.

The border of what's possible is clear: "grab Leningrad AND Moscow? Really"? Some say no, some say yes. But further fantasies would make the game simply unplayable ie the tempo would be an aberration.

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 1/20/2017 3:39:51 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 3:54:32 PM

Mundy

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After the struggles I had simply trying to take Truk, I think you'd deal with the same problem, in spades.

Even early in the war, supply will be plentiful there for the US.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 4:39:42 PM

Macclan5

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

But it is a game / tool and therefore not real; nor will the results in the game be a perfect predictor of what "might have been".

If you don't mind I partially disagree. The vanilla game (work of the developers) must yes or yes simulate the real thing. I mean the real capabilities of the real counterparts. It's either that or the Twilight Zone.

Respectfully put and a fair point ... I do not disagree that you disagree

In fact our views may not be far a part at all.

But in simulating the real thing (my bold my emphasis ) I am saying that:

1) The game is marvelous in simulating the real thing especially Militarily exactly for reasons you describe but....

2) The simulation is not complete.

I am not even sure Big Blue could run a 100% simulation ; Millions of variables outside of the capabilities of the Combat units, and supplies...

i.e. the Human elements, the massive record keeping required to mobilize supply in a non automated fashion, the communications tools, the political uncertainty and debate, the propaganda spy war effects, the human cost, etc

One of our veteran posters about 12 months ago (??) quoted a book about the potential invasion where it was estimated Japan would have to mobilize some ridiculous percentage of their war time GDP just to feed the Hawaii population once conquered. Let alone their troops, let alone building up for a potential counter attack. It was very well reasoned out...

This of course is not in our simulation.

< Message edited by Macclan5 -- 1/20/2017 4:40:58 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 5:41:31 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Keep in mind players are using mods that boost the Japanese. It's Japan on steroids

Good point. Has it been done with the standard vanilla scenario? I would guess so but I admit I haven't looked very hard for it.

When the game first came out players were trying various strategies to see what was possible. Several IJ players tried for Hawaii - a few took all the important islands but a few more failed. Luck was always a factor, but the key things for a successful IJ campaign were:

- early start to the campaign
- Allied neglect of reinforcing Hawaii
- Allied carriers positioned too far away
- Japanese giving up/delaying other historic targets so they could concentrate their army, navy and merchant fleet for Hawaii.

When Allied players saw that losing Hawaii was possible, it became standard practice to reinforce Hawaii with troops/aircraft/AA and supply so that it could stand on its own for months.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 6:10:52 PM

spence

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quote:

One of our veteran posters about 12 months ago (??) quoted a book about the potential invasion where it was estimated Japan would have to mobilize some ridiculous percentage of their war time GDP just to feed the Hawaii population once conquered. Let alone their troops, let alone building up for a potential counter attack. It was very well reasoned out...

You'll find an analysis of the Hawaii Operation on the Combined Fleet website at:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

Be advised you have to read down a bit to get to the part about invading right off at the start of the war.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 8:58:16 PM

Zorch

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quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

quote:

One of our veteran posters about 12 months ago (??) quoted a book about the potential invasion where it was estimated Japan would have to mobilize some ridiculous percentage of their war time GDP just to feed the Hawaii population once conquered. Let alone their troops, let alone building up for a potential counter attack. It was very well reasoned out...

You'll find an analysis of the Hawaii Operation on the Combined Fleet website at:

http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

Be advised you have to read down a bit to get to the part about invading right off at the start of the war.

I doubt that feeding civilians would have been on the Japanese priority list. They showed their contempt for civilian lives elsewhere.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 10:27:38 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

But it is a game / tool and therefore not real; nor will the results in the game be a perfect predictor of what "might have been".

If you don't mind I partially disagree. The vanilla game (work of the developers) must yes or yes simulate the real thing. I mean the real capabilities of the real counterparts. It's either that or the Twilight Zone.

Only after this consideration come the mods / modders. What people choose afterwards is not my problem, indeed. It's a free world. But the finished product must simulate what could be done by your historical counterparts. If it doesn't they failed to deliver a good product, that's all.

The good thing is that this game is multidimensional. The enemy can push in one side of the map. The juggernaut (aka the US) will simply push from another weird side.

In a bidimensional (East vs West) game like WitE these sort of fantasies are out of the question. I mean, the Germans cannot get to the Urals in 1941, 1942 or 1943.

The border of what's possible is clear: "grab Leningrad AND Moscow? Really"? Some say no, some say yes. But further fantasies would make the game simply unplayable ie the tempo would be an aberration.

I think from a human vs human standpoint the developers knew out of the blocks that a truly historical sim would not fly from a gaming standpoint. I mean, who in their right mind would want to play the Japanese? VS the AI maybe but not vs a human. Got to give Japan some meat. That was the case in stock as well as the mods.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/20/2017 10:55:19 PM

spence

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quote:

I doubt that feeding civilians would have been on the Japanese priority list.

While feeding the civilian population of Hawaii would not have been a high priority for the Japanese feeding their soldiers would have been. The point of the whole article was that they simply lacked the merchant hulls to haul enough supply across the Pacific to Hawaii. They found supplying their troops on Guadalcanal (Starvation Island in IJA parlance) and on the Kokoda track nearly impossible and those were considerably closer to one of their principle supply hubs (and those were fewer troops than their own studies required to attack Hawaii) .

< Message edited by spence -- 1/20/2017 10:57:14 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/21/2017 12:38:29 AM

John 3rd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Keep in mind players are using mods that boost the Japanese. It's Japan on steroids

Good point. Has it been done with the standard vanilla scenario? I would guess so but I admit I haven't looked very hard for it.

The game was Between the Storms with Michael. The Japanese IJN get some additional ships AND the Allies ALSO get additional ships. Since it is based on the Treaty Years of 5:5:3, the Allies are actually STRONGER then the Japanese in 1941.

It was a complete blast.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 1/21/2017 12:39:16 AM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/21/2017 12:43:41 AM

John 3rd

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Back in the Prehistory, I think a player did it (Amiral Laurent or something like that). This is old WitP vanilla. Look at the Japanese replacements (historical numbers in theory). Try some crazy stuff with that AND survive your trollish "offensives"...

It has been done several times by various JFB using all sorts of Vanilla Campaigns to Various Mods.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 1:35:19 PM

Revthought

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Right, but articles be-damned, I think the point people are trying to make is that a "real-life" invasion of Hawaii by Imperial Japan was off of the table, for a myriad of reasons that the the game cannot simulate.

For example, my feeling is that the difficulty of keeping such long supply lines is not even nearly adequate to history. To do it right, you'd have to model spare parts, food, types of ammunition (down to shell types), etc. Then you'd have to make submarines even deadlier.

And let's not even forget about: the IJA would never have sanctioned such an invasion without a huge list of pre-conditions that were almost as difficult to accomplish as the invasion of Hawaii would have been in their own right.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 2:18:35 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Revthought

Right, but articles be-damned, I think the point people are trying to make is that a "real-life" invasion of Hawaii by Imperial Japan was off of the table, for a myriad of reasons that the the game cannot simulate.

For example, my feeling is that the difficulty of keeping such long supply lines is not even nearly adequate to history. To do it right, you'd have to model spare parts, food, types of ammunition (down to shell types), etc. Then you'd have to make submarines even deadlier.

And let's not even forget about: the IJA would never have sanctioned such an invasion without a huge list of pre-conditions that were almost as difficult to accomplish as the invasion of Hawaii would have been in their own right.

Nor does the game really model partisans. I've lived on Oahu twice for a total of four years. Get off the coast and it's rough, rough terrain, with a lot of places to hide and strike from. The Pali especially is dense. Holding Pearl Harbor is not holding Oahu, let alone the outer islands that could have been supplied with guerrilla weapons by sub from CONUS. Heck, try patrolling the North Shore of Oahu without a couple of divisions. Can't do it.

The Hawaiian population considered themselves American. They would have been surly at best, wildly inventive and devious at worst.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 2:35:39 PM

Canoerebel

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The Japanese could have invaded and held Hawaii about as much as the Confederates could have taken and held New York City.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 2:45:35 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Japanese could have invaded and held Hawaii about as much as the Confederates could have taken and held New York City.

Excellent analogy, except you need Brooklyn to be dense jungle.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 3:00:53 PM

TulliusDetritus

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
I think from a human vs human standpoint the developers knew out of the blocks that a truly historical sim would not fly from a gaming standpoint.

I perfectly understood this. I suspect this Japanese on Steroids thing is precisely what is keeping the many PBEM/AARs alive. No rocket science.

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
It has been done several times by various JFB using all sorts of Vanilla Campaigns to Various Mods.

With the old 10 IJN replacement pilots per month...

... Pyrrhus of Epirus says "hello"...

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Post #: 22

RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 3:11:40 PM

Canoerebel

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Casablanca scene in which Nazi is questioning Rick at Rick's:

Nazi: "How would you feel about Germans in New York City."

Rick: "I don't know. Ask me when they get there. But there's some parts of New York I'd advise them not to invade."

(very loose paraphrase from dim memory)

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 7:11:09 PM

Revthought

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Nor does the game really model partisans. I've lived on Oahu twice for a total of four years. Get off the coast and it's rough, rough terrain, with a lot of places to hide and strike from. The Pali especially is dense. Holding Pearl Harbor is not holding Oahu, let alone the outer islands that could have been supplied with guerrilla weapons by sub from CONUS. Heck, try patrolling the North Shore of Oahu without a couple of divisions. Can't do it.

The Hawaiian population considered themselves American. They would have been surly at best, wildly inventive and devious at worst.

You're correct, and you don't even need to include the native population of Hawaii. The continental United States is close enough that you could keep an endless stream of men and material going into the islands.

And as you point out, seizing Oahu would not have been enough. The Japanese would have had to seize and hold every island in the chain to even have a shot at keeping any garrison supplied in Oahu, which brings us back to the supply issue. Had any Japanese forces made it to Hawaii undetected. And then somehow managed to actually take the island of Oahu they would have almost immediately withered on the vine. The Japanese couldn't have fed them nor provided them with the munitions they needed to battle partisans, let alone the counter invasion which would have come sooner rather than later.

< Message edited by Revthought -- 1/23/2017 7:13:56 PM >

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 9:37:19 PM

rustysi

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Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 9:56:32 PM

btd64

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

Now figure in that the Allies failed at Midway and lost the 3 CV's....GP

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 10:05:54 PM

John 3rd

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Realistically, the Japanese could NEVER have supplied the Chain. In the game it is feasible with strong planning, foresight, and some luck. IRL--NOT!

Had Midway been a complete disaster for the Americans, I still cannot fathom the Japanese actually succeeding in taking the islands. Maybe...probably not...

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Post #: 27

RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 10:13:57 PM

btd64

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It's sort of like the German attempt to land on British soil....GP

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/23/2017 10:23:12 PM

rustysi

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quote:

ORIGINAL: General Patton

quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Doable or not, fantasy or not, overreach or not, at least some in the Japanese hierarchy were intending to extend their 'protective perimeter'. Midway was a prelude to the invasion of the rest of the Hawaiian archipelago. The Aleutian Islands were not a feint. The Solomon Islands were a prelude to further expansion to the SE. Can you say New Caledonia?

I'm not saying that Japan could do this, history shows us she could not. Just saying some in their military/political environs were at least considering these extensions.

Now figure in that the Allies failed at Midway and lost the 3 CV's....GP

Still would have been problematical for Japan as the Army did not wish to support any such extensions. Now in the game we have not such problems.

ME: "General Yamashita, take Hawaii."
GENERAL YAMASHITA: "Hai"

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RE: Invasion of Hawaii - 1/24/2017 12:08:03 AM

Zorch

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Operation FS was to have taken Fuji, Samoa, and New Caledonia in July-August. It was cancelled after Midway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_FS

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Post #: 30