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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/14/2017 8:57:38 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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quote:

Luftwaffe is not doing well. What is left is Ju88 in northern front, Stuka in southern front and 2x Bf110 (one in north and one in south).







Germany should have 7 Stuka's minus one to Italy = 6. I hav'nt seen the naval Stuka yet in this game, I assumed they were somewhere?

Germany is missing 5 Stuka's.

< Message edited by Jagdtiger14 -- 1/14/2017 9:08:55 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/15/2017 11:36:10 AM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
Status: offline 		I'm getting the impression that losses on planes have been very high in this game. So high, that the Luftwaffe already lost air superiority. If I look at the picture of the German-Soviet partition line, things aren't looking good at all.

But to be sure, one needs to have a complete overview of the German and Italian armies. If I'm right, than the Axis should not attack anymore if they haven't got at least a 50% chance of emptying the enemy hex...

I think the Axis should really start thinking of defense now and not lose any units anymore on risky attacks... If the Soviets can break the pact, the Wehrmacht looks to be outnumbered and a lot of low odds Soviet attacks might mean the end of the Reich far to early...



< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/15/2017 11:37:16 AM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/15/2017 11:41:32 AM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		I think you are right Centuur.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/15/2017 12:23:59 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		There has been losses. I tried to build German long range fighters to empty sea areas.

I have made mistakes too. I have built toi many HQ's to be ready for Barbarossa.

I think we have to push units in northern Spain to sea with any cost and then focus on USSR.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/15/2017 1:24:30 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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Status: offline 		Make re-building the Luftwaffe a priority now...FTR2's and LND2's. I would send the LND2's to Spain/Morocco, FTR2's to east front.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/15/2017 5:15:21 PM   
Centuur


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

There has been losses. I tried to build German long range fighters to empty sea areas.

I have made mistakes too. I have built toi many HQ's to be ready for Barbarossa.

I think we have to push units in northern Spain to sea with any cost and then focus on USSR.


That's giving in to what the CW wants you to do. Churchill has done pretty good in exhausting the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe. You are simply not capable to empty Spain without large losses. Contain that Allied bridgehead, except when you are able to get at least a 50% chance on emptying an hex when you attack. Preserve your forces. You cannot afford to send any reinforcments to Spain if Uncle Joe is on your doorstep...

< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/15/2017 5:16:07 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/16/2017 6:51:11 AM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		I wrote this first to wrong thread.

Now I realized how we lose this war. USSR DoW on Germany and next impulse they DoW on Rumania. Soon Germany does not have oil. Even if they can't conquer Rumania right away, they have 19 factors for strategic bombing on Rumanian border.

USSR is close to point they can declare war, but I think Germany can delay it until J/F 1942 unless markers go totally bad. Maybe Germany should attack first if possible? Germany can't DoW anymore, but most likely can in 1942.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/16/2017 2:03:27 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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Status: offline 		If not already there, I would have all ARM, MECH, MOT, on the eastern front. Probably next turn you want to get the HQ-A(s) over there as well. Send/build FTR's you will use to defend the oil fields.

If you think USSR can DOW Germany by the garrison numbers, then pre-empt them so they do not get the surprise impulse on you (J/F'42?). Align Romania after DOW and get FTR's in.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/16/2017 3:41:10 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		That is my plan. Sending HQ's and DoW on J/F.

I'm wondering what should I do with my 6 range FW190 arriving next turn. Keep it in east or send to BoB. We don't get good odds in northern Spain if they are in supply.

There is one more problem in Spain. As long as CW is sitting in northern mountains we don't have enough units to take Portugal.


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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/16/2017 5:28:56 PM   
Centuur


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Status: offline 		The Portuguese get 7 factors defending Lisbon. So you need at least 4 good units to attack it. Remember the golden rule: if you can't handle the worst result possible, don't attack. Germany can't handle losses anymore. Conclusion: forget about Portugal...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/16/2017 7:41:56 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		Sage advice. Looks like we need to think in terms of cutting losses and forming a defence in Spain while the army and Air Force recover.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 4:12:20 AM   
Jagdtiger14


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Status: offline 		Once the US is in the war, I would not be surprised if the Allies DOW Portugal themselves. I would have a force that can peel off from the Spanish project to go over there to assist.

Get those Stuka's built and pummel northern Spain...you can flip everything.

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Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 8:05:51 AM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		If CW has 4 hexes in northern Spain and Allies take Portugal, Axis are doomed in Spain.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 2:33:08 PM   
Centuur


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

If CW has 4 hexes in northern Spain and Allies take Portugal, Axis are doomed in Spain.


That's correct. But if Uncle Joe DoW's you, your also doomed...

Thing is, you should indeed try to build out the Stuka's. But Stuka's alone isn't enough, you need FTR's too and you need to maintain the garrison ratio with the USSR at the same time... Now, that will not be easy at all...


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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 4:07:38 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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quote:

Stuka's alone isn't enough, you need FTR's too and you need to maintain the garrison ratio with the USSR at the same time... Now, that will not be easy at all...


The good news is that all these things will cost only 2BP's per. LND2's, FTR2's, and what ever 2BP cost land corps units still in your force pool. Focus on these in your next two builds.

I think the Stuka's would be safe from interception in northern Spain (other than perhaps carrier planes)?



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Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 5:17:24 PM   
Centuur


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Status: offline 		Well, if I were the CW player, I think I would send over Spitfires to Bilbao...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 5:28:22 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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quote:

Well, if I were the CW player, I think I would send over Spitfires to Bilbao...




If I were the Axis I would have ARTY (x2?) adjacent to Bilbao (hex SW).

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Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 5:49:05 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		There is one CW fighter in northern Spain. More fighters are in BoB and they can RTB to Spain.

Germany has one artillery in north and another one in Gibraltar (it will move to north next turn).

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/17/2017 10:42:19 PM   
AllenK


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Status: offline 		If we assume Allies will invade Portugal the question is when. For that we need to look at Amph, Trans builds and the Mar and Infs for the assault waves. How long to build and then assemble for D-Day? Allies will need to use CV's for fighter cover, which aren't the best. Can enough forces be assembled to throw invasion back into sea or at least contain it? If Allies break out, the next defence would be fortress Gib and the Pyrenees unless there are any decent river lines to defend. Need to start planning. Aim would be throw back but with contingency for the alternative. What forces do we need, besides air?

Any other thoughts?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 1:25:29 AM   
Klydon


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Status: offline 		I believe the CW carrier planes and regular air have also taken a beating. It has been a real war of attrition with no really clear winner and honestly, the Allies should be content with that because they are winning the time battle.

I don't see how the Axis can have a viable defense of Spain with so many units tied down in the north.

Perhaps the thing to consider is call it good in the south and concentrate on clearing northern Spain, which should release quite a few forces, especially ground. While not the ideal situation in that it will leave the Allies Africa to spring back with, Gibraltar will be a tough nut to crack regardless and the Allies will be further out from the core of the Axis, time is of the essence and leaving the Allies with a foot hold in northern Spain is worse.

The Allied shipping situation has also taken a lot of attrition as well. I don't know that they have a lot of amphib capability in the pipeline yet because they have also been busy replacing losses and feeding the attrition monster as well in terms of ground units and aircraft.

My two cents.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 2:03:17 AM   
Jagdtiger14


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Status: offline 		Klydon wrote:
quote:

Perhaps the thing to consider is call it good in the south and concentrate on clearing northern Spain, which should release quite a few forces, especially ground.


I was thinking about this as well...but was hoping one more turn might do it (S/O). I also would like to see a mountainous line from Tangier to the eastern most hex of Morocco and south...is this too late now?

I'm not aware of what assets the CW has available, but all they have to do concerning Portugal is take the minor port of Porto (invade with a CA+div) and stream in US units. I'm not sure if the US is ready to do this...they Allies will need some ARM/MECH to keep their foothold...so maybe there is more time than we think. I would say do what can be done through the end of this year and get ready for J/F'42.

All you need to do to throw back an invasion is be in range with at least a MECH div (plus other ground units for better ratio and soak off). This however assumes two things: 1. You are not facing an ARM Marine unit, which means you need more to call the blitz. 2. Enemy air has not successfully ground struck the would be blitzing unit(s). So the number of MECH/ARM div's/corps needed would depend on the areas you want to defend.

Even if you give up on Tangier, I would continue to vigorously challenge CSV. If the US/Allies land in Morocco, it will be difficult for them to go anywhere if they are OOS.



< Message edited by Jagdtiger14 -- 1/18/2017 4:36:41 AM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 12:16:42 PM   
Centuur


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Status: offline 		Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex. If not, an attack is of no use at all, since the Axis cannot affort further attrittion of their forces, since almost all reinforcements have to go to the east, to pacify Uncle Joe. Avoiding a Soviet DoW on Germany is top priority now...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 1:49:05 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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quote:

Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex.


If an entire stack is flipped?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 3:19:44 PM   
Centuur


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

quote:

Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex.


If an entire stack is flipped?


That depends. The 1D10 table is used. With two units in a hex in mountains and in supply, they still defend with 16+ factors. You need a 2-1 with two enemy units flipped and in the hex to get a 50% chance of emptying the hex, when the Allies call for the Assault table (which they do, since they can't retreat).
The Spanish are always in supply, because they hold Bilbao. The Home Fleet isn't so easily scared away out of the Bay of Biscay, because it has air from the UK defending it. Add to this defensive shore bombardment and the Axis have real problems getting good enough odds to take the hex. And if the Axis succeed, there's only a 20% chance that they stay organised to take on the next hex.
The situation in Spain looks to me that the Allies can hold out on the coast. Perhaps the one hex not on the coast can be taken by the Axis. After that, Bayonne can be attacked out of four hexes. After that it's Bilbao and Santander. But for all attacks to be succesfull? No way. Losses will occur, disorganisation of units will occur again and again and losses will be there. Losses which can't be replaced from the Ostfront anymore, because of Uncle Joe's pressure...

Problem is only: the Axis can't affort not to try to get those 50% chance to empty these hexes... This is what one calls an impossible situation. Luck is needed and an awful lot of it...





< Message edited by Centuur -- 1/18/2017 3:27:15 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/18/2017 4:42:02 PM   
Jagdtiger14


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Status: offline 		Ok, then take out Bayonne, and that interior hex, hem in the remaining two hexes with cheap units + ARTY. They will find it just as difficult to expand from there.

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Conflict with the unexpected: two qualities are indispensable; first, an intellect which, even in the midst of this obscurity, is not without some traces of inner light which lead to the truth; second, the courage to follow this faint light. KvC

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/21/2017 9:09:57 AM   
Centuur


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Status: offline 		Apparently, Germany can break the pact with the USSR. I'm not convinced that you do so and DoW the Soviets, but on the other end: if you can lift the pressure on Germany by aligning Rumania and securing the oil against a Soviet DoW on Germany? It's a real dilemma, since how the garrison s now in place, I don't think you can stop a Soviet DoW in J/F 1942...

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/26/2017 5:21:11 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		Here is the situation at the start of S/O 1941.

Germany is close to be able to break the pact, USSR needs 18,5 more garrison to do that.

Germany will bring more troops to USSR border during S/O and N/D. USSR can't break the pact during 1941, let's see how things are when 1942 arrives.

EDIT: I thought offensive markers are hidden from opponent. Looks like they are not hidden, maybe it has something to do with game mode (Solitaire)? Earlier I though USSR can easily break the pact, but I realized they can't after I counted all units on border.




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< Message edited by Mayhemizer -- 1/26/2017 5:39:49 PM >

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/26/2017 5:37:20 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		Germany can align Finland. In 1941 that would give 8 garrison and 3 garrison arriving next turn. In 1942 Germany gets 10+1 garrison.

I would like to align it after being in war with USSR but can Align earlier if needed.

German plan for S/O 1941:

1) Bring troops to USSR border.

2) Send planes to northern Spain and have naval combats in CSV and BoB.

3) If Morocco goes OOS on first turn, Germany will ground strike Tangier and attack if units flip (CW has only one CP in CSV and 8 CPs in BoB). Next impulse there will be massive fleets and there is reason even to try. If ground strikes are made, units will be reorganized and moved to northern Spain later this turn.

4) If Germany gets goods odds in northern Spain, Germany will attack.

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/26/2017 5:48:07 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		Can Italy place forts only to Italian controlled hexes or also to German controlled hexes (Gibraltar)?

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RE: Warspite1 Keep Out! - 1/27/2017 6:29:40 PM   
Mayhemizer_slith


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Status: offline 		Germany ground strikes Santander by artillery.

Any ground strikes or strategic bombing for Japan?

EDIT: Does Italy ground strike Algiers? Germany does not need SB in Morocco this turn.

< Message edited by Mayhemizer -- 1/27/2017 6:50:07 PM >

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