Revthought
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Joined: 1/14/2009
From: San Diego (Lives in Indianapolis)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Barb
Or, even without the conditions Revthought mentioned it was still possible based on the other factors:
1) Japanes submarine scouting line in place at the time (one sub was not on time and Yorktown TF had just passed by its patrol sector)
2) Better organized search, Floatplane from Tone not delayed on take off, better reporting
3) Earlier detection of the enemy = no swapping of ordonance, 2nd Wave on its way to hit allies already, would probably sunk Yorktown in the first strike.
4) 1st wave would be landed, refueled and probably in the air by the time the Dauntlesses arrived, could even clob some on their way in.
5) 2nd wave would have probably got into Hornet and Enterprise and take them out of action.
6) even if the Dauntlesses striking the KB Carriers, they would have empty decks, ammo stored, fuel lines empty... even with 2 out of action there was still plenty of place to land on remaining planes, rearm and send them to finish US crippled carriers.
7) Japanese Main Battleship force would arrive to flatten out the Midway atoll and support the invasion.
So taking for granted that some of these things would have had a positive result, like Tone's search plane actually finding and correctly identifying the USN carrier force or a submarine picket actually spotting the USN carrier force if it were in place, I think this actually makes my point as to why it is difficult to imagine "opposite Midway."
Because all of these things would have been required for Japan to have chance at success; AND, that is not even taking into account the human factors. For example, identifications of "carriers" and the like has to be believed (remember the Japanese thought the Americans had either one, or possibly two, carriers battle capable) and then acted on immediately.
Then of course there are other factors, like the fact that Midway had been reinforced. Even had everything gone perfectly it is less than clear that the Japanese invasion force was actually adequate to take the reinforced island (SIGNET again).
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Probable outcome:
By what metric? If everything goes absolutely perfectly? Maybe. I also think it is a mistake to just assume that the Japanese lose no carriers in return, because that is going to effect the projections you are making for the strategic outcomes.
quote:
- 3 US carriers sunk, Midway in Japanese hands, most of the 429 Navy carrier crew members dead or captured (shot down, ditched, landed on Midway and captured), another about 80 Army/Marine crews with the same fate (presuming B-17s, PBYs and B-26s would be evacuated), Allied cruisers/destroyers run away with what ship crews they could pick up from the carriers.
Again, I do not think the historical facts bear out that the actual capture of Midway was the likely result--50/50 at best. In addition, as I said above, you're not accounting for any potential Japanese losses.
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- No Guadalcanal campaign, with just 3 carriers left (Wasp, Saratoga, Ranger) - and I presume Ranger would be retained for Atlantic duty anyway - up till November 1943
The ranger is a big maybe, but that's using historical hindsight I think it's fair to say that Torch could have happened without her. Maybe the USN navy figures that out, maybe not.
The Guadalcanal campaign is a smaller maybe. You need to account for the disposition of the RN in this scenario and the American intelligence advantage. What seems certain to me is, again based on intelligence advantages, somewhere else would have been chosen for a counter offensive is the Allies felt the Solomons were untenable.
A "counter attack," no matter how small, was going to happen somewhere. It had to for political reasons as much as military ones.
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- 2-3 Jap carriers damaged, but back in action by the end of 1942, Operation SF (Fiji, Noumea, Espiritu Santo, Samoa) delayed for a month or so. Still powerful KB with Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiyo, Junyo, Ryujo, Zuiho, Ryuho and what remained undamaged from the KB after Midway - all combat ready, or finishing repairs...
You are assuming no Japanese losses at Midway. Again, I think this is a mistake. And since we're projecting to mid-1943 we need to modify the utility of those Carriers, weighed against the Allied intelligence advantage, the submarine campaign, and Japanese fuel oil supply issues.
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Possible capture of Port Moresby with enlarged perimeter down south to Noumea-Fiji. Allied offensives delayed by year, or shift to some another theatre - with the supply lines to Oz cut off, Australia would hardly become a springboard to New Guinea offensives. And all the supplies would have to go either down south or around the globe to supply another Island invested by the enemy (after Britain).
There is one thing that gets reality right in WiTPAE. Even if Japan accomplished all of this, they still would not be able to cut American convoys off from OZ. Make them longer? Sure. Cut them off? Not a chance.
Even the value of making them longer is reduced to something that is almost negligible, unless we make another huge departure from reality and assume the Japanese use submarines in a sea denial role on a large scale.
Japan certainly did not have the fuel or the desire to try to interdict a great Southern route supply line with the KB or capital ships--and in reality the KB was the only option because the Allies still have carriers.
AND just assuming everything you predict would have happened, did happen. This buys IJ months at most, because of... wait for it... the Soviet Union.  The Allies would have gone from, iffy at best about Soviet involvement, to arguing with Stalin about an accelerated timetable for Soviet entry into the war.
And the Japanese were completely unprepared--couldn't have been prepared and done all of the above--to face the Red Army in mainland Asia.
Finally Hawaii still wouldn't have been invaded, nor successfully taken and held if invaded. That just isn't possible, even if we stretch reality and give the Japanese every historically possible advantage.
< Message edited by Revthought -- 1/25/2017 2:33:18 PM >
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