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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:10:28 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/16/44

[/b]Fun House: See map for busy details.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9271
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 12:23:33 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I look at the picture of Vietnam and cringe.

In this mod, does refineries generate supply?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9272
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 12:48:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John included this thought in an email on Sunday: "My basic problem MISTER ROPER is that I cannot wrap my mind around throwing everything away in a hopeless fight.  It goes at complete odds with my basic playing philosophy.  Have to change that but truly don’t want to.  Am severely conflicted…"

He's a navy guy second, a carrier guy first. Backed into a corner and with a materially attritioned navy, he's going through the stages of grief. He's made it past denial and anger and now he's at the stage of bargaining/reasoning. When he reaches the next stage - acceptance - he'll commit KB.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/27/2017 12:49:12 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 9273
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 12:50:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I look at the picture of Vietnam and cringe.

In this mod, does refineries generate supply?


I don't believe so. I think that was eliminated long ago to prevent the Fortress Palembang-type ploys.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 9274
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 12:51:40 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		He hasn't played enough games late enough, as throwing things away becomes very easy.

PS: Especially if you throw them away at a good VP ratio.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9275
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 12:54:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Santa Maria! The amount of resources the Allies have in mid 1944 is just awesome. I've never made it even to 1944 in a campaign game.


You're right. It's an awesome difference between mid '42 and late '43 and between late '43 and mid '44. But the change is gradual, so you don't simply wake up one day and say, "Voila! Cornucopia! Utopia!"

As crsutton preaches to his flock every time they assemble in the pew of the First Church of Birkenstock, the driving difference in the game for the Allies is carriers. If you have them in respectable numbers, you're going to be in good shape in '44. If you've frittered them away, your task is much more methodical, slower, and predictable.

One oddity about Allied productions: A tremendous percentage of the APAs arrive (or convert from xAPs) in '42 and '43. The numbers slow to a trickle in late '43 and well into '44. So protecting them is vital. Don't think that the 40 or so that you have in Sept. '43 can be quickly replaced.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 9276
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 1:15:36 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		At some point the Allies have to make the next big leap. After that leap the HI will be threatened by B-29's AND B-24's. That leap, at least for a few turns, will be entirely protected by Naval air power. While the Allies have superior forces, they are not vastly superior. That is the point to hit the Allies with Japans best shot. There is always some chance, weather, coordination and die roles will smile favorably on one player of the other. I don't see any other logical way for Japan to precede.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9277
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 1:23:45 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Dan, you mentioned closing the enemy airfields at Port Blair and Tavoy, in order to allow convoys to move to Rangoon more or less safely. I'm pretty sure you'll need to wipe out the big field at Bangkok as well.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 9278
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 1:37:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think Rangoon CAP (set to range 2 or 3) would be sufficient to ward off anything coming from Bangkok. But Tavoy and Port Blair are off on a tangent, where they can hit ships on their way in, where LRCAP would be problematic and requires constant adjustments.

Unless and until John gets a strong new fighter, I think Allied 4EB can handle anything within normal range, pounding them into submission no matter how many Franks and Georges John puts up. So I don't think John can hold Moulmein. And, when Moulmein airfield is fully functional, I doubt he can defend Bangkok.

The equation is changing now - distance and supply considerations will make it more challenging for me to employ daily waves of 2EB and 4EB. John is probably realizing this now...and kicking himself for not conducting a more orderly phased withdrawal in Burma commencing months ago.

(in reply to jwolf)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 1:43:21 PM   
Andav

 

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It seems like Tarakan is ripe for a sweep by some Fletchers or maybe some CAs with DDs. Do you see SCTFs in the harbor as well?

While Lowpe might be cringing looking at the picture of Vietnam, I am curled up in a ball in the corner whimpering. Taking Vinh by air drop will really cause problems.

Wa

(in reply to jwolf)
Post #: 9280
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 1:53:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Four Fletchers will be seeping Tarakan this turn (the TF that Death Star was supposed to follow).

(in reply to Andav)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 2:21:04 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Miyako-jima, Daito Shoto, Kume Jima....

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9282
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 2:22:36 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		Be vewy, vewy quiet..we are hunting wabbits...

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 9283
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 2:37:27 PM   
ny59giants


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quote:

One oddity about Allied productions: A tremendous percentage of the APAs arrive (or convert from xAPs) in '42 and '43. The numbers slow to a trickle in late '43 and well into '44. So protecting them is vital. Don't think that the 40 or so that you have in Sept. '43 can be quickly replaced.


A big reason why I send mine to Mare Island and they just stay their until they can convert to APAs. I have plenty of xAPs to use in '42 and early '43.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 9284
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 2:39:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The rest of the units dropped on Luangprabang and Vinh are coming in by air transport, as is supply. I'll work this very hard to keep these bases, but it's going to be tough...and Vinh is impossible.

There's a chance at Luangprbang, because the Allies can use 2EB and 4EB to really rough up John's troops. I think he'll commit a small unit first. By the time he brings in a big enough unit to manhandle paratroops, perhaps it'll be too late.

But he should be able to overwhelm the defenses at Vinh.

The original plan (revealed here for the first time) was to take Samah, Hainan Island, by paratroop. Lashai Brigade - a good Indian unit - was 100% prepped and had just arrived at newly taken Pegu. But John strongly reinforced the base a week earlier. Had my plan worked, I would have then sent a division or more plus lots of support troops and supply via ship from the Philippines, escorted by full Death Star.

It was worth it, because John would have trouble putting together a counter invasion against two well defended beaches while Death Star was in the Philippines.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 9285
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 2:51:34 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Are you able to fly paratroops out of Luangprabang? If so, can you quickly take Hue and Tourane, and then send a bit of "the herd" up there with troops and a little supply? That would help you hold onto northern Indochina unless he brings troops back from the Burma front.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9286
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:17:45 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

but it's going to be tough...and Vinh is impossible.



This isn't Sumatra and it isn't 1942-43.

Now, it maybe impossible given what your current plans are.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9287
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:19:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I can put Death Star and the Herd to a thousand good uses right now. Every one has merit. Every one has advantages and disadvantages. But right now I deem it a higher priority to stick to the mission. I have 400 empty merchant ships just sitting in port at Legaspi. I'm sending 100+ of them to the DEI and then on to Oz or Hawaii. And waiting in the DEI are another hundred ships carrying reinforcements, fuel and supply, all of which can be put to good use in the Philippines. This number includes a division 65% prepped for Roxas, which allows me to open the campaign for Panay.

...and, behind all the sense to this is the long-held plan that I WANT John to attend to coastal Vietnam. I want him worried about it. I want him to react strongly. I want him to garrison fully.

Because my eyes are not on coastal Vietnam.

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 9288
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:21:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


This isn't Sumatra and it isn't 1942-43.

Now, it maybe impossible given what your current plans are.




It is impossible to hold Vinh with paratroop-type units and supply coming in by air transport from a supply-poor Burma. John should be able to bring in lots of units pretty quickly, with decent air power to boot. If he does so, 100 AV or 200 AV in jungle terrain with meager supply isn't going to hold of two or three IJA divisions, etc.

The equation would be different if I sea-lifted in ground troops and supply. See previous post.

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 9289
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:27:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John used a term in an email earlier this week that I wasn't familiar with. I asked him to explain and he wrote back: "This is what we refer to EVERY ship in entire Allied Navy being in the same hex traveling together.  Believe Chickenboy came up with it and it has stuck for the last 6 months.  Shorthand for the everything AND kitchen sink."

John has referred to this before - his sense that Death Star is an uber conglomeration of Allied fighting power.

If only he knew: there are currently 33 other carriers (including three CV and four CVL) operating in CenPac and SoPac.

If you happen to be reading both AARs, for goodness sake don't go and write in Johns: "You better strike now before Death Star grows even stronger!"

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9290
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:30:45 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		John wants to win the war in an afternoon - CR is willing to wait until early 1945, if it means that he can burn Japan to the ground (or crush it beneath his boots).

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9291
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:39:49 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


This isn't Sumatra and it isn't 1942-43.

Now, it maybe impossible given what your current plans are.




It is impossible to hold Vinh with paratroop-type units and supply coming in by air transport from a supply-poor Burma. John should be able to bring in lots of units pretty quickly, with decent air power to boot. If he does so, 100 AV or 200 AV in jungle terrain with meager supply isn't going to hold of two or three IJA divisions, etc.

The equation would be different if I sea-lifted in ground troops and supply. See previous post.


Totally understand.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9292
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 3:45:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'd take it sooner if I could. Regular readers know that I was prepared to take another big step forward if my carriers prevailed in the big clash that surely Fun House would prompt. I had/have the troops prepped in Luzon. I had the ships. I had enough supply. And I had a vast fleet in the Pacific waiting to link up with the Philippines forces.

John's failure to trigger KB into the fray kept me from sending forward that vast reinforcing fleet. And it likewise persuaded me that I was better off taking what he was offering in return for his reticence: the ability to take and seize so many good bases in the central Philippines and in the Sulu Sea region.

I think folks reading both AARs (who therefore have godlike knowledge of both sides' capabilities and weaknesses) and inexperienced players unaccustomed to the realities of logistical constraints inherent in a six-thousand-mile LOC might not understand why I didn't jump on Vietnam or the islands north of Luzon or Daiti Shoto or any of a hundred other under-defended or vacant bases ripe for the plucking.

For perspective: a year ago I was mired down in the long, troubling, costly Sumatra campaign. A year later, there have been four huge invasions: Aleutians, Marshalls, DEI and Philippines. I've mentioned previously that the gap between DEI and Philippines was used to move the bulk of the Allied armies and assets far forward, so that the pace of offensive operations will increase now.

To do all that within a period of less than a year taxes logistics unbelievably. Especially when considering the huge number of ships I lost (and that John sank, giving him credit where it is due).

I'm not leaping about striking at TFs here and vacant islands there, in part because being careful with fuel ensures that major offensives can continue at the cost of annoying (to John) but ultimately inefficient maneuvering.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 9293
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 4:03:27 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


If you happen to be reading both AARs, for goodness sake don't go and write in Johns: "You better strike now before Death Star grows even stronger!"


I read both. I think both of you are going to be surprised to read the other one.

Perhaps not equally surprised though.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9294
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 4:17:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I think every AAR player is surprised when he learns the truth about the strength or weakness of his opponent's situation, the things his opponent most feared, etc. That's part of the game, unless a player is basically a savant or gifted with second-sight.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 9295
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 5:23:46 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

At some point the Allies have to make the next big leap. After that leap the HI will be threatened by B-29's AND B-24's. That leap, at least for a few turns, will be entirely protected by Naval air power. While the Allies have superior forces, they are not vastly superior. That is the point to hit the Allies with Japans best shot. There is always some chance, weather, coordination and die roles will smile favorably on one player of the other. I don't see any other logical way for Japan to precede.


At this point it is pretty hard to pull of a miracle. Should have been attempted sooner by John. In my last campaign and current, I really can't say I won a single carrier fight. But never lost one enough to do me much harm and attrition to the Japanese fleet eventually did the job. John could win the next fight 3-2 in carriers and still will have lost. Because he does not get much more and the Allied faucet flows til then end. I know the Japanese get more to play with here but he is reaching the point of total inferiority. Fact is, he hates to lose his carriers but at this point the Japanese player is playing for time, not ships and should be ready to lose ships in droves if it can be strategically useful. Some say the Sam will be the great equalizer but I doubt it because by late 44-Japanese carriers become glass cannons no matter the planes on them.

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 9296
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 5:25:20 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		I do not understand why you can't reload your BBs at Legaspi with AKEs. I am rearming a BB bombardment TF using AKEs at a 0,0 dot base. It would seem that you are doing something wrong.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9297
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 5:33:05 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Bill, perhaps I'm doing something wrong. BBs North Carolina, Iowa and New Jersey refuse all entreaties. I'll fiddle with settings and see if I can figure something out. But Naga should reach level 5 in two weeks.

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 9298
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 5:36:13 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think every AAR player is surprised when he learns the truth about the strength or weakness of his opponent's situation, the things his opponent most feared, etc. That's part of the game, unless a player is basically a savant or gifted with second-sight.


If you took it as a criticism I certainly didn't mean it that way.

I've done one AAR and probably won't do another. A lot of work, more than playing if you do it frequently. But I found it did grow a little tiring to listen to advice from onlookers who didn't know the full picture. The value of AARs is as teaching tools, and this one has amazing graphics and flow. But readers would be better served to be 90% consumers, and 10% contributors, especially in the late war.

I believe the hardest thing to do in the game is play the Allies in 1944-45. Harder than running the Japanese economy. There, inputs are under full control and outputs are exactly as expected. The degree of detail required to be managed in a Fun House is staggering, and those who haven't tried to do it should read and learn. Tossing off "you should go grab Vietnam" isn't realistic and borders on insane. That would be the work of months.

If I have stopped contributing here it's in large part for this reason. I've got nothing to add over what you're already doing. But I am learning things.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 9299
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/27/2017 5:43:26 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

At this point it is pretty hard to pull of a miracle. Should have been attempted sooner by John. In my last campaign and current, I really can't say I won a single carrier fight. But never lost one enough to do me much harm and attrition to the Japanese fleet eventually did the job. John could win the next fight 3-2 in carriers and still will have lost. Because he does not get much more and the Allied faucet flows til then end. I know the Japanese get more to play with here but he is reaching the point of total inferiority. Fact is, he hates to lose his carriers but at this point the Japanese player is playing for time, not ships and should be ready to lose ships in droves if it can be strategically useful. Some say the Sam will be the great equalizer but I doubt it because by late 44-Japanese carriers become glass cannons no matter the planes on them.


A long shot for sure but with lots LBA, Kamikazes, the KB and a bit of luck it might be possible to push the inevitable back by a few months. Auto-Victory is off the table and Japan can not win in long run so at some point one must let the electrons fly or it will just be a game of piling up strategic bombing points. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part but deep down maybe John just wants to go down swinging

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 9300
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