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RE: October 1944 - 7/23/2017 8:54:31 PM   
Chickenboy


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Status: offline 		Just a drive-by "Go get 'em John".

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RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 5:38:14 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		October 3, 1944

During the night, the Americans attack Nagasaki with a total of 37 B-29. They are met by 31 Nicks and Irvings as well as augmented AA fire. Three AA units arrived yesterday and are set for this attack. Though the B-29s are stout and shot down several of the Night Fighters, a nice, BUNCH of them don't make it back home.

Only damage sustained is about 2,000 Fires and 6 Manpower Hits.

Am noticing that every night raid targets something different: manpower, resources, and nothing more vital. No complaining whatsoever presently on this score!




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Post #: 4832
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 5:47:48 AM   
John 3rd


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The Japanese Tanker convoys are not seen in either AM or PM phases. There is no eastward Air Search from the Philippines and, evidently, the Carriers/BB/CA/CLs are not flying Search either. Curious. The TF near Babeldoap is picked up from the south but nothing else is seen. We need one more day and then the Tankers are within good LR CAP coverage. Just to the west, two divisions of Kido Butai move up from Tarakan and they will add another 300 Fighters.

Maximum vulnerability will be tomorrow. Already know that 1/3 of my Fast TKs have an excellent shot of getting to Java. It is the remaining 2/3 that pose the question and the concern.

Have already ordered the slow TKs to return to the Marianas and then begin their trek to the DEI.

The Allied Colossus moves NW six hexes. It is not, repeat not, an Invasion Force meant for the Marianas. Why he doesn't CUT my ability to move down here is beyond me. Course he sees the war won with the next invasion which should allow him to move fighters into sweeping range of Kyushu. We'll work to prevent that. With the slow speed of his TF movement, I have at least a week to maybe 10 days to finish moving troops to their destinations.

Here is the area:





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< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/24/2017 5:51:08 AM >

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Post #: 4833
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 5:49:44 AM   
John 3rd


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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Judging from, it seems he's after the Tankers Fleet, and they won't escape unfortunately, unless a sort of miracle.


INDOCHINA: now that Formosa unfortunately is over, would not be proper to recosider the main defensive line there, meaning, is that region still worth of fight and defense, or rather already unrelevant to war course?


You announced "gamble" and land offensive in south china: I understand your position, but how do you think to get any good result from the vary heavy carpet bombing awaiting you? Are you planning air ambushes as well against his air there?

be fine,

Adar


I have decided to begin a phased pullout of units from Saigon and CRB. We'll make the defensive line Haiphong and Hanoi...

We refuse to simply 'give' Saigon and CRB to the Allies but he will have to fight a little to grab them.

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Post #: 4834
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 7:01:49 AM   
adarbrauner

 

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Status: offline 		Ok, so he's escorting some big and important transports and cargoes. Not exactly good news . At least, we can try to exploit his constant misjudgement of the nature and importance of your oil convoys and extricate much from the Indies.

i hope you could have followed my advice and joined many good AKs to the tankers (with supply inbound), that's a nice added oil cargo.

Very well done against the B 29!!!

In second thought,regarding Indochina, actually the keeping of Saigon area may be necessary as long as you keep a free route to Indonesia, also to contest Rebel's naval supremacy in Southern China Sea.

Saigon itself is a much valuable harbor with good repair yards, too useful to Canoe to let him get them.

Also, from Saigon triangle he could effectively air bomb Malay, Singapur and Sumatra areas.


Also, Singapur by itself is such a valuable prize not to be conceded to Canoe.

Eager to see what are your plans for south China!

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 7/24/2017 7:03:02 AM >

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Post #: 4835
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 2:11:49 PM   
Mikawa


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Status: offline 		Just wanted to say enjoying your AAR. I don't post much, but have been following for a long time!

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Post #: 4836
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 2:33:34 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Glad to have you Sir!


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Post #: 4837
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 9:53:46 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		October 4, 1944

AMBUSH!

This hurts the Allied cause a bit over Karenko.





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Post #: 4838
RE: October 1944 - 7/24/2017 10:04:02 PM   
John 3rd


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Talk about 'defensive indifference.' The Japanese TKs finally get spotted in the AM phase of October 4th. No reaction whatsoever.

Here is the planned move of next turn. WE enter into Mindanao's protective LRCAP as well as two CV Divisions of Kido Butai. I've detailed the planned movement and Fighter numbers on the screenshot.

There will be no pause with this Convoy TK-7. We'll arrive at Soerabaja, refuel, and immediately depart. Dan's planned next move will take at least 10-14 days to occur and that should be enough for a quick turnaround. Soerabaja currently has 250,000 Fuel and 140,000 Oil in it.

A small Tanker convoy carrying 90,000 Fuel is at Balikpapan. We shall run it out starting tomorrow if there is no Allied interference.







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Post #: 4839
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 8:48:31 AM   
adarbrauner

 

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Status: offline 		What was the ambush?


Listen, We read of a great number of fighters dispersed in many places, Mindano, Java, ok that's sensed if to escort the tankers TFs, or to extract the occasional EXCELLENT losses from the allies...

but, and it's only me...I'd be burning to concentrate them in one place possibly...probably South China... for a protracted fighting. Maybe even for a massive programmed possible onslaught on his carriers fleet. With Kami, the navy et all. But it's only me

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Post #: 4840
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 2:33:36 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		I think if there is a potential area of improvement for John in his next game I would think it would be more attention to the economy and more attention to the late war plane builds.

Here we are 4th quarter 1944 and Japan's economy is strong but short on pools.

There still is a strong IJN and Japan's fighter strength is not yet broken although, alas, no Frank R, no Ki94 or Shinden, no George 5 or Ki83

VP ratio is strong.

Very hard to find any fault with John's prosecution of the war with the exception of pools and late war plane builds.

Of course all this can change in the blink of an eye....maybe.

Balance those accomplishments against the advantage of a significantly stronger IJN than in a scen 1 game.

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RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 3:14:19 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Nice summary Lowpe. I would go the same way in thinking about this match. I've spoken frequently that I've never truly gone this deep into a match. It is all a learning process. NEXT game will be far different. You can take that promise to the bank.

On the late-war planes, I focused planes for the end of 1944 and NOT 1945. Vert short sighted of me.


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Post #: 4842
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 3:20:10 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		October 5, 1944

Single FIXED purpose. That is a description of my opponent.

With a little risk, a huge, fat plum hung from low-lying branches and he didn't deviate from his escort mission one iota. That is impressively stubborn!

The Tankers get through. Simply put I can load 350,000 more fuel/oil starting in about 5 days.

Order all the slower 12 Knot TKs at Saipan to move towards the DEI. We'll bring them to load up as well.

We're not concentrating ALL TKs into one or two big TFs and then running them through. As fast as they can be loaded, we'll gather them and shoot them through the Mindanao--Celebes Gap.

A Tanker Convoy is presently leaving Balikpapan carrying 125,000 Fuel. It will cross the Gap in 2-3 days.

Now we shoot as many TKs back as fast as possible. Every 100,000 buys about half a month of production. We shall continue the Tanker Convoy numbers rolling. The one coming out of Borneo shall be TK-7.






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Post #: 4843
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 3:26:24 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Shifting those Night-Fighters to be BELOW the B-29s attacks at night has been pretty effective. He has concentrated on attacking locations in Kyushu and I have managed to up my AA in the threatened area. His raids come in, do little damage (so far), and then get hit by the combined NF and AA. Results are pretty good. Here is October 5th:






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Post #: 4844
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 3:31:18 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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Status: offline 		Is present b 29 loss rate sustainable?

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Post #: 4845
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 4:55:08 PM   
Kitakami


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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Is present b 29 loss rate sustainable?


If things have not changed, the USAAF gets 58 B-29s a month. 17 lost in a day is not a tempo he can maintain.


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Post #: 4846
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 9:33:40 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		Great!

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Post #: 4847
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 10:33:34 PM   
Bearcat2

 

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Post #: 4848
RE: October 1944 - 7/25/2017 11:49:27 PM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		SWEET!

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Post #: 4849
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 12:06:39 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable

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Post #: 4850
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 12:15:25 AM   
Bif1961


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Status: offline 		40% loss rate in one raid is never sustainable.

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RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 12:37:41 AM   
BillBrown


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Status: offline 		But, behind the FoW, how many did he really lose?

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RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:01:17 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable


If I recall, there are about 30 squadrons of the first b29 with between 7 and 10 planes each, and the 2nd b29 starts rolling in with new squadrons in Nov or Dec. Nov I think.

not to rain on the parade but in truth the allies have almost unlimited 4E bombers to throw at you...you just need to keep shooting them down and not let them break your fighter back or destroy your industry without extracting a price.

the power of the b29 is their range as they stretch your fighter defenses leaving you vulnerable to the shorter range 4E beasties. Wait till he uses the deathstar to sweep during the day followed by 4E daytime raids. Very devastating....





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RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:01:43 AM   
palioboy2

 

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Status: offline 		Also can those sort of loses be replicated. If this is an outlier and the norm is 1 or 2 then it could be sustainable.

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Post #: 4854
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:12:41 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

But, behind the FoW, how many did he really lose?


a lot less...but damaged b29s are pretty good. You are trying to slow the bombing campaign down.

I don't think the Allies have flown in a 200 plane strike yet (maybe Singers during the day)..and it seems to me Japan is vulnerable to that. 600 Plane raids aren't out of the question...

jocke v Obvert is a great, perhaps the greatest AAR on NF and strategic bombing in AAR land...and started off with a HR against it just like in this game....and those HR always come back to bite Japan the hardest.

If the Allies pursue a dedicated night bombing campaign against Japan...

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Post #: 4855
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:15:32 AM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Also can those sort of loses be replicated. If this is an outlier and the norm is 1 or 2 then it could be sustainable.


usually the math is one NF for one b29....lets face it the Nick D and irving Sa are very slow, and if you don't match the altitude just right...it gets ugly fast. Also when you get 10-15 waves over the target those last couple of waves with no opposition really lay waste to the city.

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Post #: 4856
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:18:56 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		It has been rather heartening to get to this point and have the industry intact.

Other observation is that Dan has not decided what to focus on with his attacks. Mostly he has been hitting Manpower in Kyushu. Occasionally he has hit resources but that is about it for the moment.

Using the 1.0x6^10 against the Mainland, means pulling it off of glorified convoy escort duty. He hasn't shown that sort of work/inclination for a year in time. Not saying it won't happen just saying it isn't likely in the foreseeable future. When it does happen life will get very tough for Japan.




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Post #: 4857
RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:22:44 AM   
John 3rd


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Status: offline 		October 6, 1944

Allied Subs have not been much of a factor in this game. This day nearly changes that. The USS Sea Poacher is sailing near the Marianas when the Shokaku-Class CV Ryukaku fills its sights. The Commander orders a full spread of TTs fired! Three pass ahead of the big CV, one does hit just aft of the bow, the fifth is a DUD (thank goodness), and the sixth passes astern. Six Moon-Class DDs pound the sub as the TF moves away heading for Saipan.

Examination of the damage reveals: NOTHING! OK. A bit of an exaggeration. SYS 5, FLOT 1, and ENG 2--That is all.

NICE!

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RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 1:27:27 AM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		Love the names of your new ships...even the class names.

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RE: October 1944 - 7/26/2017 3:53:05 AM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable


If I recall, there are about 30 squadrons of the first b29 with between 7 and 10 planes each, and the 2nd b29 starts rolling in with new squadrons in Nov or Dec. Nov I think.

not to rain on the parade but in truth the allies have almost unlimited 4E bombers to throw at you...you just need to keep shooting them down and not let them break your fighter back or destroy your industry without extracting a price.

the power of the b29 is their range as they stretch your fighter defenses leaving you vulnerable to the shorter range 4E beasties. Wait till he uses the deathstar to sweep during the day followed by 4E daytime raids. Very devastating....







A lot of players don't take advantage of the tweak in the last official patch which makes carrier raids much more easier to pull off. You can now target a city before your carriers are in range-allowing for a fast undetected run in to hit a oil center or lightly defended industrial target. What with the number of planes he can throw at you-backed by replenishment groups a 200 fighter CAP could easily be overwhelmed. Don't know whey he does not try it. I would. Likewise he could run in a carrier groups and send sweepers and long range CAP at a target to support a B29 raid in daylight. Daylight raids if they hit home will pretty much one shot a target. One thing is sure in this mod, you can't bomb without good fighter support. He could put 300 fighters over a target and still have massive CAP over his carriers.

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Post #: 4860
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