RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/4/2017 9:15:31 PM

Canoerebel

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11/18/44

Fancy Pants: Effective nighttime and daytime 4EB raids vs. Fukuoka. Damage includes 19 George factory points.

Allied units continue working to close the gap, sealing off the overland route to the east. Some key attacks tomorrow.

Over the past two months, Allied sweeps in China have consistently outperformed Japanese CAP with the best planes. I don't make much of that because I assume that John's best pilots are protecting the Home Islands from strategic bombing.

Death Star continues to loiter in the East China Sea. John could pounce any turn, making things suddenly loud and messy rather than routine; but if he doesn't strike within two or three days, DS will retire to shepherd the next big influx of ships.

It seems that another enemy carrier division is moving from the Makassar Strait towards the Pacific. If that's true, John might wait for it before pouncing in the East China Sea...or not.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/4/2017 10:07:11 PM

JohnDillworth

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CR, John obviously has large SC TF's ready to pounce. Are you leaving any capable surface combat units in the neighborhood to handle his almost certain incursion or will there be no Allied ships hanging around worth shooting? Even if not he might try to bombard your airfields. Got a lot of bombers that might be exposed.

_____________________________

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Post #: 12062

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/5/2017 12:01:07 AM

Canoerebel

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I will leave six or eight combat TFs, including some slow BBs, a CA or two, and a higher number of DDs. The port will be mined. I'll remove all bombers and maximize CAP.

The temptation for John to strike will be great. He'll probably break through and do some heavy damage. The cost to him will probably amount to something meaningful. But most importantly it should take him a few days to figure out when and how to strike, and Death Star shouldn't be gone long. Once it returns with one million + supply and lots of troops, DS will remain there for the balance of the war, in all likelihood. So John can do some damage but it shouldn't be anything grave.

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Post #: 12063

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/5/2017 3:31:06 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John: Two turns back he was working a small boast about knocking down Allied dive bombers; then his missed a day of turns and wrote that part of the reason was he was just not up to absorbing yet another beating.

Posts like this make me sad.

In truth, Japan is horrendously strong at this point in the game, and the Allies aren't putting out heavy beatings yet.

There is no daily shore bombardments by 15+ battleships, not to mention cruisers and destroyers, daily, for months on end.

The Allies aren't gaining 2 and 3 thousand victory point a day.

The Allied Deathstars have been used defensively.

Yes, China is falling, but there is so much positive out there for Japan. So many tools left in the toolbox for this stage of the game.

Sigh.

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Post #: 12064

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/5/2017 4:28:03 PM

Canoerebel

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When flame throwing pitchers age, some adjust and are just effective using other pitches and pitching differently. Some can't make that adjustment - for them pitching was all about power, and when then can't throw 95 any more, they mentally check out.

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Post #: 12065

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/5/2017 5:33:20 PM

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An apt analogy.

I recall another AAR I followed. It was from many years ago, so the details are fuzzy.

I think by PZH, but I wouldn't swear to it.

It's getting to the end game and much of his navy was already lost, but he has one of the late war Japanese carriers in a small task force. He sailed that task force all over the map, raising hell and giving his opponent fits for weeks before it was finally run down and sank.

I think of how well that player was able to impede allied progress with such minimal assets, and then think of all the power John has at is disposal and imagine what that other player would have been able to do with John's forces.

It makes me want to cry... >sniff<

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Post #: 12066

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 12:31:23 AM

Canoerebel

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11/19/44

To Pounce or Not to Pounce? Death Star is pulling out, "Staying Power" therefore isn't an issue. So I say it's time to pounce.

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Post #: 12067

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:10:33 AM

Canoerebel

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11/19/44

The Real Fancy Pants: An interesting turn. John, in his email, commented that there were good things for both sides (forgetting the "no commenting" request, as per DNA makeup). He was right - Japan got in a few good licks on the ground in China. Overall, though, the decided weight of matters in China was very favorable for the Allies. There are so many forces moving, so much confusion ongoing, that sometimes my guys bump into stiff opposition. But they are making solid progress towards completing the desired encirclement.

I'm going to do my best to get that next big slug of supply from the DEI to China within two weeks. That will give my air force and ground units most of December to really work in China and against Japan.

I'm not on a pace to achieve auto victory by January 1 but I'd say that February or March still looks possible.

Now, things could get dicey, especially if a big naval or naval/air battle takes place. That could really change equations either way.

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Post #: 12068

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:49:47 AM

Canoerebel

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In mid 1942, Death Star (such as it was, then) was positioned in the Bay of Bengal, east of Ceylon. KB was also in the Bay, somewhere between the tip of Sumatra and the Andamans. I thought John was spoiling for a fight on what I deemed my turf. I figured the odds were better than normal, given the proximity of the shipyard at Colombo to handle damaged ships. So I asked this rhetorical question: "If not now, when?

To which Bullwinkle replied, "Um, later?"

He was right but I got lucky. John didn't accept battle. At long range, his strike planes damaged Wasp (and he lost a lot of aircraft) and that was it for the battle.

But it's time to again ask, "If not now, when?"

There are ten things John can do to avoid a strike against his carrier TF - and he's likely to do one of them. But Death Star, on it's way out of the East China Sea, will offer battle.

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Post #: 12069

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 2:06:39 AM

Canoerebel

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A fly in the ointment. Many of my DDs are low enough on fuel to mess up movement. So I refueled them but that expended ops points by BBs and CVs, including a number going up to 1,000. I think that means those CVs won't participate in air ops tomorrow? If so, my attack will be seriously blunted.

Is that true? If so, my guys either have to forego the attack or hang around one more day before giving it a try. But am I wrong?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 5:28:19 AM

Lowpe

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Normal movement in the 2nd movement phase, reduced movement in the first phase. TF will move at the speed of the slowest task force.

You don't have far to go...but I don't know any of your settings.

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Post #: 12071

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 11:28:26 AM

Canoerebel

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None o' you Peanut Men of the Peanut Gallery ought to respond to this message. IE, I'm speaking rhetorically here or somesuch.

Hey, Forumites, nobody replied to my question! There are three possible reasons: (1) nobody knows the answer (quite unlikely), (2) nobody is reading the AAR any longer (possible), or (3) nobody wants to accidentally give something away in giving an answer (possible).

What I really needed to know was if expending 1000 or 750 ops points by carriers would affect flight ops. I think it does but I aint actually sure.

Anyhow, the orders are entered and Death Star is to move six hexes, closing to within Range 5 of the enemy Q-Ship carrier TF at Okinawa. All my air squadrons were set to range 0, so I had to go in and adjust range settings, adjust some TBM squadrons from ASW patrols to naval strike, and move some squadrons off CVEs and replace them with some dive bombers to give Death Star a modestly more offensive configuration than it had. Click. Fest.

I think there's a 25% chance of a successful strike. As important as that possibility is trying to confuse John a bit by the sudden change from defense to offense. If this works okay, John will spend the following turn allowing for all kinds of moves by Death Star. And that will give me one extra day in the op beginning now to begin Operating Slug of Supply from the DEI.

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Post #: 12072

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 12:49:22 PM

Grfin Zeppelin

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I doubt ops cost affects flight operations but thats just a guess.

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Post #: 12073

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 12:53:44 PM

Lowpe

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Will consuming 1000 ops points tonight on a carrier prevent air operations the following morning or afternoon? Not in and of itself.

Well, you will move 1 hex most likely in the first phase. 4-5 hexes in the second depending upon speed, and you might even react closer too depending upon settings. Your deathstar might be scattered over two hexes.

I hope you swept Naha from Formosa. Even bombing the runways there.

Did you run in any small destroyer squadrons? Bombard Nago? In fact with the deathstar attracting all the attention, it would be a great time to let you destroyers run wild visiting all the islands around that have shipping, or bombarding.

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Post #: 12074

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:13:14 PM

Canoerebel

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Formosa fighter squadrons are set to sweep Okinawa.

Several DD and DMS TFs are set to "sweep" the are where Death Star will be moving.

All carrier Corsairs will remain on CAP; probably 2/3rds of the Hellcats are set to full Escort; most torpedo squadrons set to Naval Strike (range 6) as are all divebomber squadrons.

The objective is to take a swipe at John in case he gets lazy or guesses wrong or makes erroneous assumptions; I don't mind blunting my carrier air, as my carriers will be in a position to replenish soon; but I don't want to savage my destroyers or my LBA against a hard target, so I didn't take big chancese. This mission could be signficiant but it isn't as important as escorting in supply TFs from the DEI and probably not as important as ongoing ground support missions in China, where some important attacks and defenses will take place tomorrow.

Hengyang is my biggest concern. I have 950 Chinese AV there, mostly with '41 squads. John has two infantry divisions in the hex and an assault division. Supply should be an issue for his guys. But there's a chance he could take the hex, so most of my LBA will target this hex tomorrow.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:18:26 PM

Lowpe

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How big is Naha's runway?

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Post #: 12076

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:29:08 PM

ny59giants

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I know Jeff (Lowpe) has asked before and gotten a few screenshots, but when viewing China I need hexside control (W) enabled to clearly see what is going on.

I would send in some CV based Corsairs on sweeps and hope they come in before any naval strikes to clear away some of his CAP.

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Post #: 12077

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:39:01 PM

crsutton

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None o' you Peanut Men of the Peanut Gallery ought to respond to this message. IE, I'm speaking rhetorically here or somesuch.

Hey, Forumites, nobody replied to my question! There are three possible reasons: (1) nobody knows the answer (quite unlikely), (2) nobody is reading the AAR any longer (possible), or (3) nobody wants to accidentally give something away in giving an answer (possible).

What I really needed to know was if expending 1000 or 750 ops points by carriers would affect flight ops. I think it does but I aint actually sure.

Anyhow, the orders are entered and Death Star is to move six hexes, closing to within Range 5 of the enemy Q-Ship carrier TF at Okinawa. All my air squadrons were set to range 0, so I had to go in and adjust range settings, adjust some TBM squadrons from ASW patrols to naval strike, and move some squadrons off CVEs and replace them with some dive bombers to give Death Star a modestly more offensive configuration than it had. Click. Fest.

I think there's a 25% chance of a successful strike. As important as that possibility is trying to confuse John a bit by the sudden change from defense to offense. If this works okay, John will spend the following turn allowing for all kinds of moves by Death Star. And that will give me one extra day in the op beginning now to begin Operating Slug of Supply from the DEI.

A surface TF even with 1000 op points spent will still fight if it encounters the enemy. There is no penalty to shooting. I suspect the same applies to carrier operations.

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Post #: 12078

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 1:46:15 PM

paullus99

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Given that John seems to have been lulled into a false sense of security - that the Death Star won't be used in an offensive manner, this may be the opportunity you are waiting for.

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Post #: 12079

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 7:02:46 PM

Canoerebel

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11/20/44

The Raid That Wasn't To Be: It just wasn't meant to be. John kept his carriers parked at Naha under modest CAP. Allied fighters from Formosa dealt with that CAP in pretty good fashion. But Death Star ended up seven hexes from Naha, with all aircraft set to range six. Arg! It's tempting to wallow in "what might have been!", so instead I'll focus mostly on the what actually happened during the turn, including some important combat in China. But it may be tonight before I can post.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 7:10:59 PM

HansBolter

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All those turns defaulting to heavily restricted ranges on your carrier planes to avoid CAP traps comes back to bight you in the rear.

Its amazing how we can set things up and leave them that way for extended periods forgetting about them.

Its easy to dispel the myth that training air skills tops out at 70 as a result of this.
Sometimes I go for 3-4 months without checking on the training progress of squadrons in the US.
Often when I do get around to it, I find skills above 70, in orange color no less, for many pilots.

One of the many pitfalls of not having a staff to manage this gargantuan monster.

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Hans

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 7:13:48 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Will consuming 1000 ops points tonight on a carrier prevent air operations the following morning or afternoon? Not in and of itself.

Well, you will move 1 hex most likely in the first phase. 4-5 hexes in the second depending upon speed, and you might even react closer too depending upon settings. Your deathstar might be scattered over two hexes.

I hope you swept Naha from Formosa. Even bombing the runways there.

Did you run in any small destroyer squadrons? Bombard Nago? In fact with the deathstar attracting all the attention, it would be a great time to let you destroyers run wild visiting all the islands around that have shipping, or bombarding.

Any ops points you consume during the orders phase are deducted from the first naval movement phase. That's why you are limited to consuming 1,000 points during orders: there are 1,000 ops points per ship per phase.

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Post #: 12082

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 7:40:58 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

All those turns defaulting to heavily restricted ranges on your carrier planes to avoid CAP traps comes back to bight you in the rear.

Its amazing how we can set things up and leave them that way for extended periods forgetting about them.

Its easy to dispel the myth that training air skills tops out at 70 as a result of this.
Sometimes I go for 3-4 months without checking on the training progress of squadrons in the US.
Often when I do get around to it, I find skills above 70, in orange color no less, for many pilots.

One of the many pitfalls of not having a staff to manage this gargantuan monster.

Well, that's not what was going on at all.

Aircraft ranges were properly set at six, as was the plan (I spent more than an hour last night issuing new orders for the squadrons, increasing many from range 0 to range 6). It wasn't the aircraft settings that gave me the problem it was the need to refuel that limited my TFs to traveling four hexes rather than the planned for six hexes.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 8:05:47 PM

HansBolter

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Aren't your carrier fighters capable of escorting to range 7?
Why the limit?

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Post #: 12084

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 8:21:39 PM

Canoerebel

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On the theory that risk increases with distance (blundering into mischief like a CAP trap or whatever), I configured the raid to take place at five hexes. Then I allowed an extra hex of range on aircraft squadron settings just in case. Why chose that number instead of seven or four or 10? Just a gut feeling.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 9:45:04 PM

paullus99

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Well, damn.

He'll pack his airfields now, so the opportunity to probably gone.

Damn, damn, damn.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/6/2017 11:21:24 PM

BBfanboy

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I don't like to go beyond range six for a tough target either - the ops losses from damaged planes not returning get too high. You can afford the planes but great pilots take a year to develop! Also, I don't think the Avengers can carry a torp to range 7, but I could be wrong about that.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/7/2017 3:34:50 AM

Canoerebel

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11/20/44

Fancy Pants: While the carrier raid fizzled, the ground war in China progressed. See map for details (and I'll post a follow-up map with hexside details turned on).

We're now entering another window where John can gang up on Allied forces. Ningpo is an outpost on the frontier. it's protected by an RN BB TF, a USN CA TF, and about five DD TFs. 275 fighters provide air cover. John can overwhelm the defenses but it'll probably take him awhile to figure out the right combination. The window should be open roughly 10-14 days.

In the DEI, a small CVE TF is at Horn Island and moving into the Gulf tonight. That's the last TF that will join the great move north.

I think these TFs carry in excess of 1 million supply. I think it carriers 400k fuel. But fuel is a bit tight.

Miri has 250k fuel but it's tough to extract it - small port. But it's my emergency fueling station.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/7/2017 3:44:36 AM

Canoerebel

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11/20/44

An IJA Division's Banzai Charge: See diagram.

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Post #: 12089

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/7/2017 3:52:54 AM

Canoerebel

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11/20/44

Hexside Control in China:

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/7/2017 3:55:10 AM >

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