RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 6:55:32 PM

Canoerebel

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At first blush that seems to be the case. But it wouldn't work that way. This has been thought through and discussed at length previously, but I'll put it forth again.

Any direct LOC from Hawaii to the west would have fairly narrow shoulders subject to raids by enemy combat ships or carriers. It would be necessary to provide protection for any convoys using that route. I just demonstrated this two months back, when a large convoy moved directly to Luzon from the Marshalls. It was a tight go and required Death Star to shepherd it part way, and it had a sizeable carrier escort of its own.

The route I'm currently using is far more secure. And since it was long ago set up, it's also efficient. Supply runs with negligible risk all the way to Boela. From there to Luzon is a bit dicey and requires attention from my carriers, but big deal. That means once every two or three months Death Star handles a brief security operation.

I could have chosen an LOC route and broadened its shoulders, but that would have taken a lot of time and I'd be far back from where I am now. I chose to move deep and fast and narrow, putting my air force within strike range. Trade offs, but I have no doubt that this course of action - including the current LOC arrangement - was far better than any alternatives.

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Post #: 12241

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 8:15:56 PM

witpqs

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Maybe you should take some very-long range cargo ships (Liberty or Victory come to mind but maybe Victory on account of their speed) filled only with supply and send them west from Hawaii to inside of John's detection range, then pull them back and route them the usual way.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 8:17:02 PM

Canoerebel

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Interesting info via nav search and SigInt that bears the LOC to Oz issue.

There's an enemy combat TF at Tagula Island, east of Milne Bay. This may be a raiding TF or it might be a fast transport TF. SigInt reported a base force inbound to Tagula.

That's noteworthy, because John's withdrawing from nearly all of his perimeter and hasn't done anything in this vicinity in so long that the roosters stopped crowing. This, combined with the recent combat TF raid on Luganville and the not-so-long ago sighting of a carrier TF leaving the Marianas on a SE heading, are like turning on the light and seeing a cockroach on the counter. Odds are that's not the only one.

John may be planning to interdict the Allied LOC where it crosses the Coral Sea or approaches the Torres Strait. And he may also plan to hit the empties that just reached the DEI.

Neither thing is gonna happen, for reasons I won't go into. It's fun, though, trying to figure out what he might do and taking countermeasures (but, in this case, the countermeasures have been in place for so long that even the buzzards have stopped buzzing).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 9:16:46 PM

JohnDillworth

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BTW, what are your doing with your transport aircraft? If you get abundant supply in China you can start to fly it into Formosa

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Post #: 12244

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 10:43:55 PM

Canoerebel

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Lots of activity is ongoing in John's AAR. Until today, I thought he was working a plan for a big attack in the Formosa region. And he might be. But now I think it more likely that he's chewing over the Allied LOC and possibilities for interdicting Allied supply. Of course, those of you reading John's AAR will know if I way off base. But I like to think out loud because I suppose that would be most interesting to the reader.

We've already been through this scenario once before. The Allied LOC was narrowest at the approach to the Torres Strait. John held the New Guinea bases, including Port Moresby. And then he posted KB near Milne Bay. In reaction, I had to carefully tend my convoys. Mainly, though, I simply diverted them south, unloaded at protected ports like Sydney, let the supply move overland to Normanton on the Gulf of Carpentaria, and those ships then moved to Boela.

The situation at present is better than it was then. Firstly, I have PM now. Secondly, my DEI bases have a stockpile of 600k+ supply, which is the reserve for China/Formosa. Third, China/Formosa will very soon be able to handle local security without DS, so that my carriers can go elsewhere if needed. And fourth, there is a reasonable chance that a new injection of supply won't be need for months - at least two, maybe four.

John and I drew even in the score on August 2, 1944. In slightly more than four months since then, the Allied lead has grown to 30k. By the end of December, the Allies should be at least half way to auto victory.

In other words, it will have taken five months to make it half way to victory. At that pace, the war would draw to a close at the end of May.

But the pace of Allied scoring has increased dramatically since mid September, with a brief hiatus the past week or so to await supply. I think the pace will pick up considerably over coming months.

Since August one, I've brought in two injections of supply totaling about 550k. That was sufficient to handle all the air and ground ops from further back. Now I'm bringing in 1 million plus supply to airfields that are further forward and to an army that has already pummeled the enemy in China.

It's possible it doubling the victory point spread will take double the time (another five months), but I doubt it. I think the projection of victory in February, March or April is on target.

And I do think that incoming supply (assuming it makes it) could possibly fund operations - at least in the air - until the war ends. As for ground ops in China, there's a pretty good chance Rangoon will provide that supply.

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Post #: 12245

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 11:13:09 PM

Canoerebel

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12/4/44

Coral Sea and the LOC:

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 12246

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 11:22:04 PM

Canoerebel

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Current supply in Oz: 1.625 million.

Current supply in DEI: 600k+.

Current supply on Luzon: 176k (with 200 aboard ships arriving day after tomorrow).

Current supply on Formosa: 78k (with roughly 600k aboard ships arriving in about four days).

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Post #: 12247

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 12:42:06 AM

palioboy2

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Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

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Post #: 12248

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 12:58:54 AM

Canoerebel

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12/4/44

Fancy Pants:

Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 1:37:31 AM

Lowpe

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Please remember to hit the W key for hexside control on those monster Chinese battlemaps... pretty please.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 1:38:08 AM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 1:50:04 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

Goodness me. You don't want to know...trust me.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 2:45:41 AM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

You have all the time in the world. Almost literally.

Periodic sweeps of bases, even if you lose, will make him think he has to keep CAP everywhere he can or prioritize for the most important - allowing you to continue doing what you're doing.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 2:46:06 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

Lots of activity is ongoing in John's AAR. Until today, I thought he was working a plan for a big attack in the Formosa region. And he might be. But now I think it more likely that he's chewing over the Allied LOC and possibilities for interdicting Allied supply. Of course, those of you reading John's AAR will know if I way off base. But I like to think out loud because I suppose that would be most interesting to the reader.

"In our school histories at home, certainly in years past, those written in the North present a strikingly different picture of our Civil War from those written in the South. In some portions it is hard to realize they are dealing with the same war."

- George C. Marshall

You will definitely want to read John's AAR and discuss it with him once this game is over.

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

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Post #: 12254

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 3:02:41 AM

Canoerebel

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I'm re-reading John B. Gordon's Reminiscences of the Civil War right now.

Meanwhile, for the past month or so, I've been researching the Georgia Secession Convention, giving special attention to the journal of the proceedings.

The former is just for pleasure. The latter is in preparation for writing a story about the crazy spiral of events that led to disunion.

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Post #: 12255

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 3:04:24 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/4/44

Fancy Pants:

That unit in the woods east of Changteh is heading east into swamp - where progress will be two miles a day! It will never get to Hankow in a timely manner that way! Better to send it NW to close a hex side on the enemy in that hex or send it NE to head for Ichang.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 12256

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 3:24:12 AM

Canoerebel

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Yeah, I know. But it's just a little arty unit. The reason it's on that heading is simply to add to the appearance of a widespread threat to the Japanese MLR. It doesn't matter where it's going or when it gets there. :)

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Post #: 12257

RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 3:54:21 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I know. But it's just a little arty unit. The reason it's on that heading is simply to add to the appearance of a widespread threat to the Japanese MLR. It doesn't matter where it's going or when it gets there. :)

You get more and more devious every week! I like it!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 2:11:47 PM

Bearcat2

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I know. But it's just a little arty unit. The reason it's on that heading is simply to add to the appearance of a widespread threat to the Japanese MLR. It doesn't matter where it's going or when it gets there. :)

When I read this, all I can picture is the poor troops in the field; you just know they are saying " who the %%^^% thought this one up!!!!! Moving artillery through the swamp; c'mon man, isn't there a REMF unit that could do this ?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 4:57:38 PM

GetAssista

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Why arty? Chinese have so few of those it should be worth its weight in gold.
Men, on the other hand, are plenty. When I need some sacrificial duty from the Chinese I send yet another "New corps". You know, those smaller ones. ABC fragments work great too

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/23/2017 5:45:42 PM

Canoerebel

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Because it was the only available unit in the hex when I thought of the benefits of the move - benefits which potentially far outweigh what little good an Indian arty unit might do in China.

There was one small Chinese corps in the hex but it had to stay there to satisfy garrison limits. Nothing else was available from the rear, and there was no way I was going to pull units off the front lines at the expense of a week or more of travel.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/24/2017 1:54:08 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

Meanwhile, for the past month or so, I've been researching the Georgia Secession Convention, giving special attention to the journal of the proceedings.

The former is just for pleasure. The latter is in preparation for writing a story about the crazy spiral of events that led to disunion.

I've always been impressed by Alexander Stephens' calm, eloquent, and well-reasoned speech against secession. A pity that it seems to have made little impact on his audience.

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/24/2017 1:59:46 AM

Canoerebel

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It made a difference. Or, I should say, half the state agreed with him. It was a very close thing in Georgia.

Opposed to Secession: Alexander H. Stephens, Benjamin Harvey Hill, Joshua Hill, Herschel Johnson (Stephen Douglas's running mate).

Favoring Secession: Robert Toombs, Francis Bartow, Howell Cobb, Thomas R.R. Cobb.

All of them were nationally known politicians; they were huge in Georgia; today, though, most readers in the Peanut Gallery might know little about them.

P.S. Edited to add this: Ultimately, though, it probably wouldn't have changed the course of events. Had the Georgia Convention resulted in a no vote on January 19, 1861, subsequent events would have prodded Georgia into seceding eventually. That's exactly what happened in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/24/2017 2:09:16 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/24/2017 4:43:55 PM

palioboy2

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

As somebody his read extensively about the strategic airwar over Europe. I feel like your airwar is much closer to that then the actual airwar over Japan. It will be interesting if you can prosecute the airwar with out fighter cover on deepstrikes.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/24/2017 5:00:34 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2
Any plans on acquiring any bases that put fighters in range of the HI? I'm going to guess no. Is the 4E loses to points gained ratio something you can sustain for another 30K of mainly strategic bombing points without fighter support?

That's an interesting question. I bet it's being raptly discussed in John's AAR right now.

My feeling is that, as things currently stand, I can sustain the campaign.

Ningpo is within P-38 and P-51 of several big Kyushu bases, and B-24Js can reach into southern Honshu. That should work well with the Superforts.

I didn't get to try the Liberators very long before the supply limits set in, but the ops losses were surprisingly high for night raids.

So, this is an issue that I don't have a definite answer for. But I am cautiously optimistic that the Allied strategic bombing campaign will be effective going forward.

As somebody his read extensively about the strategic airwar over Europe. I feel like your airwar is much closer to that then the actual airwar over Japan. It will be interesting if you can prosecute the airwar with out fighter cover on deepstrikes.

That's an interesting comment! In my recent PBM I found the same, as have a number of AARs. I know some of it might simply be game engine differences from real life but I figure most is that with hindsight the Japan player is usually much better prepared to defend against strategic bombing raids.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/24/2017 5:34:36 PM

paullus99

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True, the Japanese lacked much in the way of defensive doctrine. Of course, they were also well behind the technology curve by 1945 as well.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 3:39:50 AM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

Just back from a family birthday gathering 120 miles distant. Fun day. Long day.

Raid on Iwaki: A handful of Superforts from Ningpo score impressive results in a daytime raid on Iwaki resources. No CAP encountered.

I counted on surprise here. I wondered if John might think low supply was limiting my bombers, and I haven't had any bombers at Ningpo since before the carriers left. Too, this was the first raid on Iwaki and the first raid this far north.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 3:52:49 AM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

Battle of Monocacy? In what appears to be a late offensive campaign deep into enemy territory (like Early's Maryland campaign in 1864), I think John is moving into the Coral Sea in strength to contest the Allied LOC.

I understand the reasons for this campaign. At certain times the threat would be grave. And there are things he could do if he has means that I don't think he has at this point. But mainly I think this is trying to close the barn door after the horses, cows, chickens, sheep, pigs, roosters, pea fowl, ganders and domesticated skunk have long since departed.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 4:33:46 AM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

Fancy Pants: John continues to reinforce China; I continue to invite him to do so. I think he's feeding troops into a losing situation - reinforcing defeat. It'll be interesting to see which of us has a better feel for what can and should be done here.

The Japanese army has taken a real beating - Burma, Luzon, Formosa, Indochina and China have probably roughed up at least 20-30 enemy divisions. But I still don't have a real strong grasp as to whether he's feeling a pinch yet. Probably so, but I'm not sure.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 10:30:57 AM

paullus99

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If John is, in fact, trying to reinforce his position, he's already throwing good troops away with the bad....

Once you've returned to the area, it would make sense to establish a permanent presence - there shouldn't be a need to have 30+ Carriers in the same hex

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