Spanish Civil War?

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Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 1:48:58 AM

Dysta

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Inspired from this source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-05/catalan-chain-reaction

What is the most plausible decision make by NATO and other International campaigners, if Catalan independence becomes a bloody warfare?

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 1:56:14 AM

HalfLifeExpert

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I don't think there is anything in the NATO treaty, or any precedent, for what NATO is to do should civil war occur in a member nation.

Catalan secession being the cause of a war would not put all of Spain in jeopardy like Franco's rebellion in 1936, as the fight would be over one part of the country leaving, not a battle over the whole nation like 1936-39.

My gut instinct would be for NATO to be completely neutral, and for the duration of the conflict the Spanish Armed Forces be exempted from NATO operations (i.e. any units deployed outside of Spain be allowed to return home; and should any NATO operations need to be launched, they are removed from the Order of Battle). As for non-Spanish NATO forces inside Spain, I would think it would be best to redeploy them to ether their home nations or the nearest NATO installations that can support them. As far as making use of NATO bases inside Spain, that would be up to the Government in Madrid, but I think it would be politically unwise for the NATO nations to make use of such bases during the conflict.

It's clearly an internal matter, which would not really give much weight to claims of Article Five.

< Message edited by HalfLifeExpert -- 10/7/2017 1:58:38 AM >

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 2:01:02 AM

Dysta

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I see. What if Catalan is weighted by other strategic contesters, like Russia, China, or other proxy�s host? NATO surely don�t want to let them come closer as ZH suggested.

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 3:03:19 AM

HalfLifeExpert

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If the Catalans were supported in any way more than rhetoric, than that would change the game. If a nation were supporting the Catalans, ether with weapon shipments, "volunteers" or out right military support, than that may warrant invoking Article Five.

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 3:42:58 AM

Dysta

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Many thanks for your answers.

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 11:17:35 AM

Gunner98

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I think the closest precedent is Cyprus in the 50/60's - certainly not part of NATO but the sides were supported by Turkey and Greece, culminating in the UN mission in 64 and the 74 Turkish invasion.

NATO did a lot to keep the conflict contained, put pressure on member and non-member states to be part of the UN force separating the two sides. Generally they did everything they could to resolve the conflict while containing it and not get involved.

There were certainly touchy moments like when the Turks were engaging British and Canadian troupes at Nicosia Airport but it kept a lid on the situation.

My suspicion is that NATO would be keen for a speedy resolution. I think the only NATO personnel in Spain are the ones at the multinational Corps HQ in Valencia, it would be up to each contributing member to pull its members out of that. Canada for instance withdrew its staff officers (3 of them) in 2009 because Spain had demonstrated that the HQ would not deploy to a crisis and the Cdn Govt had better places to put its people. That stuff happens all the time, but I would suspect the international footprint would actually grow because of a show for NATO unity.

B

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RE: Spanish Civil War? - 10/7/2017 11:56:46 AM

kevinkins

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If one wanted to pit modern Spanish and French forces against each other, a scenario could be imagined along the lines of an escalation in French sediment. They apparently have a bit of sympathy in some quarters for the moment:
http://www.euronews.com/2017/10/05/how-the-french-helped-catalonia-hold-its-controversial-independence-vote

Though is hard to believe that these NATO members would start shooting under the present circumstances, who knows, in a few years if NATO/EU becomes very divided over some other policy.

Kevin

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