Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game!

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

Nobody I know has ever started a war with the Soviets this early, outside of Focus Pacific. In addition, most Japanese players pull a surprise attack on the Soviets, but it was Japan that got surprised.

By June, the Japanese fighters can dominate, and during 1942 the Soviets will lose 7 Divisions (approximately) to fight the Germans.

But offsetting the Japanese eventual superiority in the air, is the excellent Soviet AA.

There is very little plane builds, or even replacement troops.

So, I anticipate a change in fortune here eventually, before the end.

In the thread I'm thinking of I don't think there was any date hedging. I was on the other side; I'm not an airplane guy and they can do what they do, but they aren't magical.

In that thread I think I counted up the USSR land OOB and it was something like 32 divisions and division equivalents. They do lose a lot, get a lot, lose some more, get more back, etc. It's a revolving door until 1945.

No, nobody I know of has done what you have here. I applaud the try. Very instructive. But Japan is in trouble worldwide as the Soviet front just deforms every timetable and resource allocation during the critical USA-weak months.

In case I'm not being clear--I think you've done a great job.

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

The 2000 AV garrison "bug" at Harbin has been a very significant factor in aiding the Soviet performance in this match. IIRC that typo "bug" did not exist in 2009-2011 (approximately) or was not perhaps spotted when that earlier discussion probably occurred. Without the typo Lowpe would have been able to position another 1800 AV to meet the Soviet rush. That would completely alter the land dynamics.

Alfred

Mark up another thing about the game I had never heard of. That's a huge garrison.

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

The thing that is hard to really measure at this point is the incredible supply burn taking place in Russia. The addition of another massive front probably just puts too much on the Japanese resource plate. Even if Japan has a lot of success elsewhere in 1942 I would think their economy would just have to implode at some point.

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ORIGINAL: Mahrgell

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Actually, a better question is who isn't reading Obvert's AAR?

Me actually.
Generally I'm almost solely interested in JFB AAR, and my willingness to read AARs depends heavily on the writer. You have a great compact style to present all your exploits, which makes it fun to read. Add to that, that you somehow always land in very "special" situations. :D

So for the last months, I read your AARs exclusively ^.^

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game!

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

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ORIGINAL: crsutton

The thing that is hard to really measure at this point is the incredible supply burn taking place in Russia. The addition of another massive front probably just puts too much on the Japanese resource plate. Even if Japan has a lot of success elsewhere in 1942 I would think their economy would just have to implode at some point. I think the best Allied strategy is to just "fight hard" anywhere possible. As the Allied player I would be more receptive to risking and losing LCU in the Pacific just to keep Japan busy whereas without the Russian front I would tend to be more conservative.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Mahrgell

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Will bombard the base with battleships, cruisers, light cruisers and destroyers from 12 cm range.

Wow. That's brutal.
I wonder how your ships will sneak up that close. (and get back into the water after) But so far you managed to surprise in all your games, so I'm looking forward to it.

You are not a JFB....12cm is the size of the main guns on destroyers.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Technically it's 12.7cm, isn't it?

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Gadzooks!

I don't see how the game can last past 1943 now.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

You are neglecting to take into account that the pools for those aircraft are incredibly low until the B-24J has been in production for quite some time.

You should play the Allies sometime. Or at the very least, load up a Tracker for a day 1 of your scenario as the Allies and look at arrival dates of units (with full complements of planes) as well as production dates/rates.

4E production/replacement is anemic until late 1943 at earliest (whenever the B-24J arrives at 48 per month). B-17 production halts entirely at some point. Also, 48 B-24s per month is a reasonable number for you to kill/render inoperable.

Also, he has to be able to get engineers in to build that base to level 8 - the Soviets don't have all that many engineers, and IIRC he could base non-Soviet aircraft at those bases in any case so long as they did not have the Soviet country code (I forget the specifics, but if it's based on HQ then it's easy enough to do what he did here). So your priorities should be:

1) Preventing USN Seabees or USA EABs from arriving. This means holding onto the Sakhalins where he could land them (even via SST or lone APDs). As a bonus to this, he wouldn't be able to transfer anything but bombers and P-38s to these bases in Manchuria due to not having the legs on other aircraft.

2) Farm as many aircraft VPs from him as you can, especially if he insists on driving his bombers hard in trying to force your industry down early. If he can't protect the airfield very well with fighters, even Japanese bombers can get them on the ground.

Additionally, 3) I would be trying to smash the early war USN to throw wrenches into the gears of a Pacific drive in order to stave off the time when you will be fighting on 2 aerial defense fronts.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Soviet engineer force is more than adequate to build it to level 9. Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

B17 replacement pool is something like 15 planes a month, plus newly arriving squadrons which I remember comes in a big slug in April of 42, B24 arrive in July at 24 a month plus new squadrons. A nightime bombing campaign within normal distance of the b17 will be devastating. If he flies in at 2k as is your want, losses might be higher, but Honshu would burn badly. Against a gifted Allied player, there would be no chance to research planes ahead in any meaningful way.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The necessity to allocate a huge fighter force, to flying at night, will further dilute Japan's ability to do anything.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The Soviets don't need Allied units other than that original one to flip the base.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What in the world does a two aerial war defense front mean? I am fighting defensively over Magwe, Over Sumatra, Over Borneo, Over China, Over Manchuko, Over Hokkaido, and I fear over Honshu.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The replacements dry up as it transitions to the B-24 model. A single bad raid and he loses an entire month of B-17 replacements. There is a slight swelling of the ranks during 1942, but it goes away as other areas of the Allied OOB ramp up. Husbanding your bomber strength is a challenge as the Allies.

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MM doesn't seem to have suffered overmuch from my 1945 Soviet AA.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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MM doesn't seem to have suffered overmuch from my 1945 Soviet AA.

I remember the KB's raid of Vlad very differently evidently...

Back to the topic at hand, I'm with Loka on this.

It's a single hex, and it needs built up. That gives you time to prepare.

Diluting your fighter force to night CAP at this point will lose you the game - your fighters need to be over his airbases sweeping away his fighters to make way for the bombers to kill 4E's on the ground.

If your planes can't get through during the day, send them in at night.

Check the ceilings on the Soviet AA, and fly above that. Sure, accuracy will take a big hit, but it's better than needlessly loosing bombers.

Once you've swept the DEI out, there's very few points of contention for the Allies to engage in air combat with you, and most of those require his longest ranged fighters. Burma, Eastern DEI, SWPAC, CENTPAC; all of which are far removed from your industrial centers., and even better, he needs long-range fighters for the DEI and CENTPAC.

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Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

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ORIGINAL: Yakface

I'm with Lowpe on this. A US available base within heavy bomber range of Japan ends the war because:

1) I think we can agree that Japan will lose, and very quickly, if US do significant damage to Japanese infrastructure this early in the war, as a consequence:

2) Japan will have to defend the home islands from air attack.

3) Japan has a large number of manufacturing sites that will need to be defended both night and day.

4) In order to perform 3) I would estimate Japan will need at least 500 fighters permanently assigned (based on 10 bases with 25 defenders in two phases: night and day).

5) Japan cannot assign 500 fighters away from other theatres and expect to compete with British and US airpower anywhere. US doesn't even nee to use those heavies - they could just sit there and oblige the Japanese to keep half their airforce at home.

6) Even then the Allies will have the whip hand - they can attack or not, send in strong sweeps against strung out defenders, send in concentrated 4E raids against a single base to overwhelm defenders etc etc etc

It's just a no win situation for Japan that is only going to end one way.

Oh and 7) Attempting to keep the base permanently closed vs US and USSR fighters will just have the effect of bleeding the IJ airforce white.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Paratroopers I am sure.

Level 8 Yankee air base there in a month. Protected by Soviet AA. B17s serviced by Soviet air crews using Soviet supplies. Game over.

You are neglecting to take into account that the pools for those aircraft are incredibly low until the B-24J has been in production for quite some time.

You should play the Allies sometime. Or at the very least, load up a Tracker for a day 1 of your scenario as the Allies and look at arrival dates of units (with full complements of planes) as well as production dates/rates.

4E production/replacement is anemic until late 1943 at earliest (whenever the B-24J arrives at 48 per month). B-17 production halts entirely at some point. Also, 48 B-24s per month is a reasonable number for you to kill/render inoperable.

Also, he has to be able to get engineers in to build that base to level 8 - the Soviets don't have all that many engineers, and IIRC he could base non-Soviet aircraft at those bases in any case so long as they did not have the Soviet country code (I forget the specifics, but if it's based on HQ then it's easy enough to do what he did here). So your priorities should be:

1) Preventing USN Seabees or USA EABs from arriving. This means holding onto the Sakhalins where he could land them (even via SST or lone APDs). As a bonus to this, he wouldn't be able to transfer anything but bombers and P-38s to these bases in Manchuria due to not having the legs on other aircraft.

2) Farm as many aircraft VPs from him as you can, especially if he insists on driving his bombers hard in trying to force your industry down early. If he can't protect the airfield very well with fighters, even Japanese bombers can get them on the ground.

Additionally, 3) I would be trying to smash the early war USN to throw wrenches into the gears of a Pacific drive in order to stave off the time when you will be fighting on 2 aerial defense fronts.

I have thought of all that you said, and quite frankly, find no merit in almost any of it. Sorry.

Soviet engineer force is more than adequate to build it to level 8. Soviet AA is more than adequate to inflict horrible losses on the bombers trying to suppress the fields, if somehow I could get past Mig Fighter CAP without suffering horrendous losses.

B17 replacement pool is something like 15 planes a month, plus newly arriving squadrons which I remember comes in a big slug in April of 42, B24 arrive in July at 24 a month plus new squadrons. A nightime bombing campaign within normal distance of the b17 will be devastating. If he flies in at 2k as is your want, losses might be higher, but Honshu would burn badly. Against a gifted Allied player, there would be no chance to research planes ahead in any meaningful way.

The necessity to allocate a huge fighter force, to flying at night, will further dilute Japan's ability to do anything.

The Soviets don't need Allied units other than that original one to flip the base.

What in the world does a two aerial war defense front mean? I am fighting defensively over Magwe, Over Sumatra, Over Borneo, Over China, Over Manchuko, Over Hokkaido, and I fear over Honshu.

there is something like 40 arriving heavy bomber squadrons by 1943 in the range of 3-12 planes each. With the replacement rate, more than enough to mount nasty raids over Honshu industry at night.




btw, I have played the Allies.

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ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

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ORIGINAL: Yakface

I'm with Lowpe on this. A US available base within heavy bomber range of Japan ends the war because:

1) I think we can agree that Japan will lose, and very quickly, if US do significant damage to Japanese infrastructure this early in the war, as a consequence:

2) Japan will have to defend the home islands from air attack.

3) Japan has a large number of manufacturing sites that will need to be defended both night and day.

4) In order to perform 3) I would estimate Japan will need at least 500 fighters permanently assigned (based on 10 bases with 25 defenders in two phases: night and day).

5) Japan cannot assign 500 fighters away from other theatres and expect to compete with British and US airpower anywhere. US doesn't even nee to use those heavies - they could just sit there and oblige the Japanese to keep half their airforce at home.

6) Even then the Allies will have the whip hand - they can attack or not, send in strong sweeps against strung out defenders, send in concentrated 4E raids against a single base to overwhelm defenders etc etc etc

It's just a no win situation for Japan that is only going to end one way.

Oh and 7) Attempting to keep the base permanently closed vs US and USSR fighters will just have the effect of bleeding the IJ airforce white.

Per 6 - the Allies don't have any sweepers that can reach from there to Japan except for P-38s until the later Corsair models come, along with the P-47N and P-51D. Until then, they're stuck at 10 hexes (P-47D25) or less (P-47D2 is 9). And the Allies don't get very many P-38s until, well - later.

I think your estimate of required fighters is far too high. The USAAF does not have that many bombers yet, and does not get that many more in 1942. They would also be without fighter cover and without sweep support. Protection can also be concentrated on the bases that matter (of which there are, not the 40-point Resource/LI centers. Would losing those hurt Japan? It would sting, but that's it.

I just scrolled back up to the map. That's 11 hexes from Sapporo - barely within normal range of B-25s. But B-25s are far more fragile than B-17s and B-24s, and the pools are not all that deep until, again, later.

But it doesn't matter how many he gets later if Lowpe can prevent the base from being within USAAF fighter transfer range and then maintain air superiority (the latter of which he should be able to accomplish). With only Soviet fighters to provide cover, they'd rapidly run out of said fighters. At that point, the bombers are at Lowpe's mercy. If Obvert launches a bunch of raids, they'll be damaged and then on the ground without adequate fighter cover, where they can then be destroyed.


I'm not suggesting this isn't something that needs to be dealt with, but it IS something that can be dealt with without too much difficulty from the current situation.

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ORIGINAL: Yakface


Whilst most of what you say is true at this instant, it does not address the original point of Lowpe's post which was that the game would not go beyond 1943. It's March 42 at the moment. There is no realistic way that he can defend the home islands for the next 21 months.

One point that I would take issue with is keeping the Manchurian base out of US fighter range. How are you going to do that when the P38E has a transfer range of 50 hexes (IIRC) once it gets it's mid 42 drop tanks. That's nearly to India. Transfer a group change plane type, rinse repeat with the next. If nothing else would require an HR. So long as Obvert covers the base in the short term with Mig's, which outclass anything Japan has for months, then the US can take the strain in the longer term.