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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 6:00:24 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		If he's Dunkirking and never really intended to fight at Singers, you're almost certainly right. If he's been reinforcing, then he's been bringing in supply too. I haven't contested these sees, so it would be easy to bring supply over from Palembang, Soerabaja, etc.

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Post #: 13921
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 6:02:53 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

5/1/45

CenPac: This is who he is.

9/3/61, Sendai: While sitting nude in a sauna, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Yani Cokranseki organizes Inveterates of Foreign Seas.




Inveterates or invertebrates !?

Could those EEEs be left over from the AO/TK TF you slaughtered, making their way to his distant bases?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 13922
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 6:11:35 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The AO/TK battle took place far to the northwest of Midway. These EEs may be escorting other oilers coming from the Marianas or Truk.

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Post #: 13923
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 6:17:14 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/1/45

Intel Screen: AV gauge moving in the right direction again.

How to close the deal now; to actually achieve auto victory? Japan may lose 1,000 Army Loss Points in the next ten days, depending on further success of John's Dunkirking at Fusan.

Allies should pick up somewhere between 250 and 1,250 points for Bases in the next ten days if I manage to pick up Peiping timely and it's fully supplied.

The war at sea probably won't offer a decided advantage unless John banzaiis. The air war, too, unless he unleashes kamikazes that don't score well.

Strategic Bombing is the most reliable way to close the deal. John still has a strong fighter corps, though much of it has been posted at Fusan and Singers the past few days. He'll bring them home and we'll play cat-and-mouse as he tries to devine which targets will be hit. I bet he loads up Osaka tomorrow.







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Post #: 13924
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 7:50:02 AM   
Jellicoe


Posts: 157
Joined: 9/26/2012
From: Kent, UK
Status: offline 		A lot of Jills and Graces on the ground there. Might that show a disembarked carrier strike group with the fighters elsewhere?

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Post #: 13925
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/18/2018 8:17:29 AM   
Drakanel

 

Posts: 253
Joined: 4/6/2015
Status: offline 		Or, if you take Singapore, that would almost tip you over the AV threshold by itself :P

I don't think it's impossible with what you are moving there. It's a lot of decent troops, and it seems he doens't have tanks to contend against your tanks, not even counting the quality disparity between them.
I too do think it likely he doesn't have that much supply. Nor forts above lvl 6. Conquering the city in 10 days or less just might be possible...

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Post #: 13926
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 2:44:30 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/45

KB: Watching this is part spectator sport, part wondering what notion John is working. Is it nothing more than keeping KB as far from danger as possible "here at the end of all things"?




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Post #: 13927
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 2:55:33 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/45

Singapore: Allies cross and attack in good order but the results, shy of 1:1, are disappointing. The enemy garrison is a cobbled-together group of modest AVs - alot of units from 50 AV to 150 AV. That's an issue that might be exploited, given time. But time is short. On the plus side, it was fun to do this and learn from it, and now I'll go to work reducing the city just in case reduction is necessary to victory.




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Post #: 13928
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 3:09:13 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/45

Air War: Effective 4EB strike vs. Osaka today. Heavy sweep action of the heart of John's remaining fighter defenses: Nagoya, Yokahama and Tokyo. Both sides took very heavy losses. I haven't looked at my squadrons yet, but my pools were already worrisome. How long can I take this? How long can John?




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Post #: 13929
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 3:34:46 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/45

China: The advance on Peiping is underway. Nothing much left to do here.

Korea: The Allied campaign for Fusan and southern Korea is going to conclude pretty soon, creating a massive base of operations adjacent to the Home Islands and freeing up a massive Western Allied army prepping for Home Islands targets. Is there time to implement such an invasion? I don't think so, but I'm working the angle.

Victory: John told me months ago that if I focused on taking the Asian mainland, the Allies likely wouldn't invade the Home Islands until late summer. In all likelihood, the invasion would actually take place by the end of May or early June. Enemy opposition in China and Korea has utterly collapsed.

Admitting Defeat: For a long time, the feeling I got from John and some of his staff members was that Japan hadn't been defeated because the economy was humming, KB still existed, and "the Japanese flag still flew over Singapore." John may still feel exactly the same. But the Empire has declined dramatically over the past six weeks. He still has a fleet; he still has an air force; he may still have an economy. But what a state the Empire is in overall. If the game did continue until August, I think the Allies would take Singers, Java, most of Sumatra, and a fair bit of the Homes Islands. I'd be willing to proceed if John wants to (I don't think the will). In fact, I think the Allies could take all the Home Islands and achieve 3x victory by the end of '45.




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Post #: 13930
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 3:49:57 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/2/45

Intel Screen: Decent progress towards victory. The situation in Korea is tremendous, but Singers and touch fighter battles dampened scoring on the day.

I haven't looked at the state of my fighter corps and bomber squadrons. If they are up to fighting again tomorrow, the day was a good day. If they are too battered, then today was tough.




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Post #: 13931
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 4:24:41 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		Speaking for myself, it would be great to see you guys duke it out to December.

Cheers,
CC

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

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Post #: 13932
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 5:19:32 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I wouldnt, JIII is stuffing around, playing and winning his own game.

CR would be doing all of the work and wasting another 6 mths of his life.

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

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Post #: 13933
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 5:25:32 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, that's one way of looking at it. :)

I don't think John's playing and winning his own game. He's done some good things the past few days (we both have, really). But the game isn't about who scores more runs in the 8th or 9th inning. It's about who wins the game. The game has it own rhythm - up and down or, as I called them yesterday, perturbations. John is good enough and experienced enough and has enough left to work angles and strike and make some noise. Hey, he stuck it out and he's playing hard! But the Allies are rolling forward and winning the war by a decisive margin and early.

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Post #: 13934
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 5:30:08 AM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, that's one way of looking at it. :)

I don't think John's playing and winning his own game. He's done some good things the past few days (we both have, really). But the game isn't about who scores more runs in the 8th or 9th inning. It's about who wins the game. The game has it own rhythm - up and down or, as I called them yesterday, perturbations. John is good enough and experienced enough and has enough left to work angles and strike and make some noise. Hey, he stuck it out and he's playing hard! But the Allies are rolling forward and winning the war by a decisive margin and early.


I have to say that I was wrong about John and this game. Kudos to him and you for a fun adventure!

_____________________________


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Post #: 13935
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 11:29:17 AM   
Bearcat2

 

Posts: 577
Joined: 2/14/2004
Status: offline 		Surprised that the Soviets have not been activated

_____________________________

"After eight years as President I have only two regrets: that I have not shot Henry Clay or hanged John C. Calhoun."--1837

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Post #: 13936
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 1:57:21 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

He's done some good things the past few days (we both have, really). B


John is a damn good Navy guy. He really knows how to get the most out of his ships and how to time them so they have maximum impact with minimum exposure. That makes it all the more frustrating as to why he didn't try to intervene sooner. He really should work on a mode that has 8 more CA's instead of 8 more CV's. He would be unbeatable

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13937
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 2:15:30 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		He's a navy guy first, no doubt. That's where his heart is. He's always been good with air power too (or he is compared to me). And he's good at using the initiative with combined armed tactics at the start of the war to overwhelm an opponent. Against a newbie or fairly inexperienced player, the opening year can be lethal.

His weaknesses: (1) leaving gaping holes in his deep land defenses; (2) sailing carriers around without detection or awareness of the location of enemy carriers; (3) the land war, especially in China; and (4) opinions so strongly set that he doesn't seem to adapt his thinking even if clearly wrong.

With respect to 1 and 2, he never changed during the game. I thought he'd learn from the Big Tent operation to defend deeper, but Luzon was open, then China, then Formosa really, and finally southern Korea. It's hard for an IJ player to defend everything, but John continuously threw everything forward and kept it there even while his rear was wide open.

He got stung in the '43 carrier raid by moving about without detection on my carriers, but he was doing the same thing in the South China Sea and in SoPac in late '44 and '45.

Regarding the land war in China, I am nearly certain he won't make that mistake again - stopping after taking Changsha and declearing a unilateral ceasefire. Huge mistake on his part. We haven't discussed it, but I bet he recongizes it and will handle China far differently in the future.

Regarding adapting, his notion about how 4EB and Death Star should or should not be used seemed to fix him in an intransigent philosphy of "it's not fair so I'm not going to address it." John would benefit tremendously from taking counsel of experienced, knowledgeable IJ players who know how to deal with those things. He ought to start with Lokasenna, Obvert and Lowpe. Those are three IJ players I follow who don't bat an eye at things like those and know how to effectively counter them. (I'm sure there are many other IJ players too, but those are three that I've followed carefully over the past year or two.)

As for me, I'll save self analysis for a later time, if it seems pertinent and of interest. I think I know some of my weaknesses. I think I know some better than readers do. And I think readers know some that I don't recognize as I sail blythfully along in Honahlee, looking for ol' Puff.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 13938
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 2:49:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A brief tangent to illustrate one of the things an editor does (an editor at a small publication, any how). The story I'm working on about a Holocaust survivor who met and married an American GI includes this paragraph:

The group remained in a Salzburg, Austria, camp five months at the invitation of the camp director, who asked them to welcome new refugees and assist in operations. In the evenings, they sang, danced, and played games. One evening, an American soldier in uniform entered the camp. He was from Chicago and part of the 66th (Black Panther) Infantry Division of the Sixth Army Group. He wanted to practice his Hebrew. His own survival had been a miracle. On Christmas Eve 1944, his division left Southampton, England, to cross the English Channel and replace troops at the Battle of the Bulge. The other ship, the SS Leopoldville, was torpedoed by a German submarine off the coast of Cherbourg. Harold’s ship diverted to rescue survivors, but the 66th had lost about one-third of their men and weren’t up to fighting strength and didn’t join the Battle of the Bulge after all.

As I was working with the first few sentences of the paragraph, I cross-checked to make sure the unit designation, affiliation and nickname were correct. The 66th Div. was known as the Black Panther Division. Check. But as best I can tell, the 66th Div. wasn't ever part of the 6th Army Group, but rather was (at the applicable time) part of the 15th A.G. What to do? It's possible the 66th was briefly or informally attached to the 6th, but who knows. That may be a complicated command issue that isn't really pertinent to the story at all. Solution: suggest to the author that we omit mention of Sixth Army Group.

The second part of the paragraph includes the sinking of the Leopoldville. I haven't looked into that yet to make sure the ship name is right, the date of the sinking is right, and that the 66th Div. was aboard. Details.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13939
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 2:58:03 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

Leopoldville


As to the Leopoldville I can refer you to this site....which seems to have the accepted, accurate information and a picture of eh a black panther. Dates seem to line up http://leopoldville.org/

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13940
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 3:18:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Again, a tangent.

Several years ago, I was interviewed by a blogger in Georgia. One of the questions and answers was this: If you could go on vacation anywhere in the world, for 2-4 weeks, all expenses paid, where would you go and why? I’d either choose the concentration camps of Poland and Germany plus Normandy or the islands of Guadalcanal and Iwo Jima in the Pacific. World War II history has been an interest when I was young, and much of my reading (and some of my writing) has involved these places. As for the concentration camps, that’s the saddest, most compelling chapter of human history that I’m familiar with.

My response resulted in a several responses by Polish people. Here's an example: The term 'concentration camps of Poland' is incorrect. The German Nazis established the 'concentration camps' on occupied Polish soil. The camps were not Polish as implied by the comment. Please correct the error.

Last week, I saw in the news that Poland has considered legislation making it a crime to make this mistake, or to suggest Polish complicity in the camps.

I never envisoned or suggested or implied such complicity. I was simply referring to the location of these camps. But everybody seems to bet bent out of shape about everything these days.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/19/2018 3:19:09 PM >

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Post #: 13941
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 3:58:04 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Ah, my best friends wife's mother passed this year. We attended the funeral and knew them well. Her husband died a few months before. The mother is a holocaust survivor. French, she was a child and hidden by the nuns in France. He mother was taken and was among the last Jews exterminated in Majdanek. Just weeks before the Russians arrived. My friend and his wife will go to Majdanek this spring to carry out her mothers last wishes. To have her ashes scattered with her mother. Born a Jew, cremation is forbidden. She said she does not believe in god. Her belief ended the day her mother was taken to the camps. I tell you this because my friend and his wife do not want to go to Majdanek, but last wishes are last wishs and they have vowed to carry out this wishes.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13942
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 4:18:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Very poignant. If my family had been there, or if my family had been guards there, I wouldn't want to go. The pain would be too great. It would be too near. But my connection is not so close, and the need of a historian is to walk hallowed ground - to inhale the atmosphere and to feel the ghosts.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/19/2018 4:19:05 PM >

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Post #: 13943
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 6:33:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2
Surprised that the Soviets have not been activated


Soviet Activation depends on a mystical algorithm far beyond my abiilty to comprehend....and since it comes into play only once every 16 UV/WitP/AE years (according to my experience), the effort to commit it to memory is too taxing.

If the war is still lingering in two weeks, a 10,000 AV Chinese army may cross the border and enter Manchukuo. If that doesn't activate Russia, nothing will.

(in reply to Bearcat2)
Post #: 13944
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 7:05:06 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2
Surprised that the Soviets have not been activated


Soviet Activation depends on a mystical algorithm far beyond my abiilty to comprehend....and since it comes into play only once every 16 UV/WitP/AE years (according to my experience), the effort to commit it to memory is too taxing.

If the war is still lingering in two weeks, a 10,000 AV Chinese army may cross the border and enter Manchukuo. If that doesn't activate Russia, nothing will.


Activation is solely based on the historic date the Soviets activated (Aug 1945) or the AV of the units assigned to Manchukuo Army (which includes Korea Army) dropping below 8000. The latter is a die roll chance of activation, with lower AV increasing the chance. There may also be a factor for the game date.

I sandboxed it by sending Manchukuo Army units piecemeal into a buzz saw in mid 1942. The Soviets didn't activate until the Manchukuo Army AV was 1982! That was about two months after it dropped below 8000.

PS - I forgot that hostile Japanese activity can instantly activate the Soviets. I did that once by sending a Japanese recon plane over a Soviet base.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13945
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 7:11:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Okay, so it's not a complex algorithm. It's just a simple series of steps that I understand and immediately forget, like a man who looks at his face in a mirror only to walk away and forget what he looks like (per the Book of James).

BBFanboy, you should volunteer to serve on Admiral Lowpe's staff. I am not sure your excellent grasp will be of any help to him at this late date, but perhaps you can keep him from activating Portugal and Andorra.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 13946
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/19/2018 7:19:25 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, so it's not a complex algorithm. It's just a simple series of steps that I understand and immediately forget, like a man who looks at his face in a mirror only to walk away and forget what he looks like (per the Book of James).

BBFanboy, you should volunteer to serve on Admiral Lowpe's staff. I am not sure your excellent grasp will be of any help to him at this late date, but perhaps you can keep him from activating Portugal and Andorra.

I could be the equivalent of Cap Mandrake's "Ensign Hata" (copywrite Cap Mandrake and M&M Enterprises, 2007).

I sandbox things to find out the "what if" questions of this game. Started about five years ago and figure I have answered about 10% of my questions ...

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 13947
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/20/2018 5:02:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/3/42

CenPac: KB raid about over.

I have to allow for the possibility that John will banzai his fleet, including his carriers, but I think odds are 3:1 that he won't.






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Post #: 13948
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/20/2018 5:06:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/3/45

Singapore: As anticipated, John didn't counterattack today. The Japanese army is a collection of units with modest AVs. Now the Allied army is too, but there was marked recovery of fatigue and disruption today. About 100 AV gained on disablements. There may be time for another attack before the end of the war. Maybe.





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Post #: 13949
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 2/20/2018 5:11:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/3/45

Battle of Fusan: Japanese didn't attack today, avoiding a mistiming issue. The Allied infantry is up and the first probing deliberate attack will take place tomorrow. There should be at least six forts here but the enemy garrison apepars ragged.






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Post #: 13950
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