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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/30/2018 12:21:41 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

Does anyone know what the card says?

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol46no3/article07.html
Front side of OWI notice #2106, dubbed the “LeMay bombing leaflet,” which was delivered to Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and 33 other Japanese cities on 1 August 1945.

“Read this carefully as it may save your life or the life of a relative or friend. In the next few days, some or all of the cities named on the reverse side will be destroyed by American bombs. These cities contain military installations and workshops or factories which produce military goods. We are determined to destroy all of the tools of the military clique which they are using to prolong this useless war. But, unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America's humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives. America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and good leaders who will end the war. We cannot promise that only these cities will be among those attacked but some or all of them will be, so heed this warning and evacuate these cities immediately.”

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Post #: 511
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/16/2018 5:21:16 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline 		A bump to keep this AAR from falling to page 2. Any updates on your side Canoerebel ?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/17/2018 2:52:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks for saving me from oblivion, Dave.

I typed a long response yesterday and my old work computer ate it. I typed a long response this morning and my newer home computer ate it. Since typing long responses that vanish is annoying, I'll postpone the update for awhile until I recover from the involuntary purge.

I'll just say that Erik and I are completing a turn every two to three days. The game with John III is the primary speed bump. Turns there now take from two to five hours. Sometimes John and I play two or three games a day, which leaves no time for eating, sleeping and breathing. Erik understands and has been graciously patient. The pace will pick up in a week or two, I think.

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Post #: 513
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/17/2018 4:53:24 PM   
dave sindel

 

Posts: 488
Joined: 3/13/2006
From: Millersburg, OH
Status: offline 		I can imagine that the game with JIII is very time consuming. And I get the sense that one is building to a dramatic finish. I have mixed emotions about that game. I will hate to see it end, as I have thoroughly enjoyed your AAR, and all of the tangents it has taken. But I also look forward to seeing how you and Erik match wits.

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Post #: 514
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/17/2018 8:00:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Dave.

There's lots of behind the scenes action and thinking going on. Nothing sexy to anybody but me, but it does advance the cause. I'll post in detail later.

The game has lost a bit of luster with the weird air mechanics problem over Shikuka. Erik and I should be embroiled in a fierce and constant battle there but instead we have kind of a false war. Erik's searching for other ways to advance his own cause. But there's no denying that the game veered away from what we excepted. It'll take some new and eventually some very exciting course that will probably be just as much fun (kind of like his game with Lowpe suddenly veered from the expected).

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Post #: 515
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/26/2018 10:02:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/12/44

Raid on Chinmapo: Because that's what inveterate raiders do.

Wait....that was a different game; a different life; dimly remembered; an artifact of the distant past; already mired in the mists of antiquity.

This was MY raid. And anyone with eyes knows I'm neither inveterate nor an invertebrate.

I captured this screen about five days ago because it shows that Obvert is unusually alert (likely) or got lucky by just happening to have fighters near an obscure locale on the day Allied bombers arrived (unlikely).

Despite the fighter opposition, the raid was a success. My hope is that it continues to persuade Erik to spread his defenses everywhere within range. But the biggest lesson learned was on my part: This guy is proactive.

My B-29-1s at Shikuka have targeted Home Island industry at night and in the daylight, low and high, escorted and unescorted, against bases under recon or not. But to this point I'd only targeted mainland Asia once (Harbin) early on. I didn't think there was a chance he'd have Chinmapo protected - hey, it's a level 0 airfield (I think). So he must've had LRCAP up.

Like I said, I learned something about my opponent.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 2/26/2018 10:03:16 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/27/2018 2:25:11 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

Because that's what inveterate raiders do.



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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/28/2018 7:57:13 AM   
Barb


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From: Bratislava, Slovakia
Status: offline 		Could have been the fighters are based at Heijo with range 1+ or at Keijo with range 3+. One has to take notice of the comment around the list of intercepting units. It is quite normal that they were drawn toward the raid with some detection time (although "Spotted" and 12 minutes is not much - that means no Radar at target hex).

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/28/2018 9:14:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		There's a game going on behind the game (I think), but first I'll bring you up to date on what's going on where. We're a good month, maybe more, since my last update.

1. The Naval Battle of the Kuriles left me with a bunch of damaged carriers, including some with moderately heavy damage. To the amazement of the civilized world, these managed to escape the scene of the fighting; then managed to avoid getting sunk by enemy subs; then they managed to avoid springing leaks and sinking on the way to shipyards. All of the carriers have been in yards for two weeks or better. Several are already finished with repairs. The most damaged ship - Lexington - will need about 100 more days.

2. I stood down my 4EB for awhile, as Erik attended properly to his defenses. They campaign has resumed. For awhile, I'm going to work on nighttime raids. Damage inflicted will be less but my hope is that it works in the long term - less attrition to my bombers so that they can fly more frequently.

3. Erik's navy has mostly stood down the past three weeks or more. His carriers are currently parked at Tokyo, in plain view. Neither is he running big air ops against Shikuka, probably due to the weird bug we've encountered.

4. He is strongly reinforcing the Kuriles, and I'm letting him. That's part of the game within a game, which I'll explain later.

5. My achillee's heel is combat TFs at Shikuka. If Erik gets through them, he can destroy hundreds and hundreds of ships plus an air force. I have a decent number of combat ships there but it probably looks, to him, more menacing than it actually is.

6. Ten days ago, four USN DDs went west from the Aleutians and sank a few E-class ships near Paramushiro. One DD needed some yard time; the other three I sent sprinting to Shikuka. They made it without incident and without apparent observation. That was strange. That's not much in the way of reinforcements, but it helps.

7. Erik did not deploy his subs deep into Allied territory, which surprised me given the number of juicy hurting ships I had after the battle. He has some lurking around the western Aleutians now. I'm hoping they come no further east.

8. So it's been pretty quiet in NoPac, given the enormity of the invasion that took place. Strat bombing takes place and Erik reinforces his islands, but otherwise its pretty doggone quiet.

9. Quiet elsewhere in the Pacific.

10. Quiet in Burma and China.


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/28/2018 9:15:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The quiet everywhere has a purpose, from my perspective. Whether it's having the effect I'm hoping it's having is debatable.

When Death Star retired from the Great Naval Battle, Erik lost contact with them pretty quickly (as noted, he didn't send his subs to chase and keep tabs). At present, I don't think he knows where they are. I don't think he's known for weeks. I'm hoping he's allowing for them to show up nearly anywhere at any time. Given their apparent disappearance from NoPac and the quiet that's descended on that theater, I'm hoping he's mulling over CenPac and SWPac and will eventually consider Any-Pac a possibility.

So I would prefer not to reveal the location of DS or otherwise tip my hand, especially to the current vulnerability I feel in regards to Shikuka. That's partly why I haven't molested his reinforcement missions to the Kuriles. That and the fact that I can't afford to lose any combat ships.

In about a month, DS will be ready for action and considerably stronger than ever (reinforcements keep arriving). I know where it's going and what it will be doing. I know where the Allies will focus amphib ops and ground campaigns through the late autum months. The quieter things are until I'm ready to move, the better.

This game is built for the long run, so I'm not going to panic due to lack of progress or to a perceived need to achieve auto victory in 1945. I'm going to work my angles as carefully as possible, waiting for a moment when the enemy is finally weak enough to hammer.



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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/28/2018 9:26:33 PM   
Chickenboy


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From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		In my opinion, you may want to take at least *one* of the kuriles to avoid complete encirclement of your forces on Sakhalin Is.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/28/2018 9:30:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Eventually I'll take all of them (or most of them).

I should've also mentioned that supply at Sikhalin Island is good. Shikuka has 1.9 million and can stand for a long time, if things do get dicey. But if things stay quiet, perhaps "dicey" won't be an issue.

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Post #: 522
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/1/2018 1:57:28 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Eventually I'll take all of them (or most of them).

I should've also mentioned that supply at Sikhalin Island is good. Shikuka has 1.9 million and can stand for a long time, if things do get dicey. But if things stay quiet, perhaps "dicey" won't be an issue.



To paraphrase notable economist John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, we are all dead." Eventually, the game will be over and you will have won or lost on points. What is your contemporary time frame for capturing all or most of the kuriles to buttress your position on Sakhalin?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/1/2018 2:00:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No time frame yet, but operations will commence soon after repairs are complete for the three carriers that require about 60 more days in the yards.

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Post #: 524
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/1/2018 2:33:11 PM   
Chickenboy


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Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Paramushiro appears well defended-based upon your SigInt. Would you take that proverbial bull by the horns or would you opt for another less well-defended Kurile island for your initial toehold?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/1/2018 2:39:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm likely to take the bull by the horns. I'll probably take on each of the islands in sequence. He's reinforcing, and I'm paying attention. I won't get bogged down if there's better options elsewhere. But if he's reinforcing with a mixed brigade here and there, where I have three or four divisions fully prepped, I'll take it on - assuming I have control of the seas or otherwise feel secure.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/1/2018 3:55:01 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Paramushiro appears well defended-based upon your SigInt. Would you take that proverbial bull by the horns or would you opt for another less well-defended Kurile island for your initial toehold?

PJ and its weak fortress can be bypassed and neutralized fairly easily, if it looks too strong.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/3/2018 9:29:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Per SigInt and other indications, Eric is moving troops around. He has a lot of troops, AA and base forces coming to Japan (undoubtedly to handle security in the north) and is then moving some of these to reinforce the Kuriles. By the time Death Star is able to resume activity, the Kuriles will be much more strongly defended - IE, big airfields. But there's not much I can do to hamper his activities - I prefer to use my air force for strategic bombing and defense rather than what might be a difficult or impossible effort to suppress airfield building.

The other wave of reinforcements seems bound for China/Indochina. These may be coming from New Guinea and other points forward. I don't mind this, partly because I'll need to move into the DEI at some point to get base points. I'd rather do that on the cheap, if possible.

Erik still has a stout army in Burma and I'm not messing with it at the moment. I prefer to have his army as far forward as possible. Eventually, as in the game with John, things will happen that should make a forward deployment disadvantageous for him.

We started the game in March 1944. The Allies invaded the Kuriles/Sihalin in June and somehow managed to succeed at small cost. I'd expected Erik to then attack the high ground - he did briefly but has since stopped. Since my defenses are a bit tenuous at the moment, that suits me at present. So, for now, I'm focused on employing strategic bombing against the Home Islands and Asian mainland while prepping for future targets and getting the navy back in shape for future ops.

It's going to be a long and weird war, I think. I don't expect a quick victory. I don't necessarily expect victory, in the sense of the enemy succumbing before the historic date. There's still a chance of that, but a lot of time and fighting must transpire before I know what's really feasible and what isn't.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/4/2018 6:04:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/17/44

Raid on Ominato: Very successful raid on Ominato by Allied 4EB. This included some B-24s that hit the airfield at night; next came large morning sweeps by Allied fighters (scoring at roughly 2:1), followed by two large and well-escorted B-24 and B-29 strikes against the airfield.

Erik had plenty of fighters present (about 140, I think) and had about 600 bombers on the ground. I'd been hitting industrial targets to the south at night for the past few turns and hadn't ever ordered an airfield raid.

This is a good one to remember when future raids don't turn out well - when the bombers go in before the fighters, ect.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/4/2018 6:16:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		For the most part, Allied fighters have been devoted to CAP over Shikuka, so this was a departure from my SOP. I can't do this often, because Erik could clobber the ships at Shikuka if he timed his own riad right.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/4/2018 9:33:00 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Wowza. That's a very good raid result. Looks like he doesn't have great radar there - only 19 minutes of warning, and that second one really pounded him. I know Ominato can go to AF9, but is it? Even if so, more planes = more risk for him, regardless of the lack of overstacking.

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Post #: 531
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/5/2018 5:03:55 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		At some point the JFB must learn a similar lesson to one the AFB learns.

1942 - The AFB learns he cant sail his TF in range of NETTY

1944 - The JFB must learn he isnt safe within range of B24 & 29.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/5/2018 2:14:03 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Ai! Chihuahua! What a thumping!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/6/2018 6:14:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/19/44

Raid on Ominato: Erik loaded up the airfield with lots of good fighters; Allied sweepers came in first; and then escorted bombers came in, mostly targeting the port. The sweeps were a 1:1 affair but did enough to allow the bombers to hit hard:

Morning Air attack on Ominato , at 119,54
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 10
A6M8 Zero x 26
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 28
Ki-100-I Tony x 32

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-51B Mustang x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38J Lightning: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CMc Enoshima, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yokae Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Okuyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Ninoshima, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Toshima, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
ACM Zuiko Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
CMc Washizaki, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SC CHa-32, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yahonui Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS RO-37, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Toshi Maru #5, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Tasei Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ML G-209, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-61, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Chiyo Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk




< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/6/2018 6:15:06 PM >

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Post #: 534
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/6/2018 6:24:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Like all you gents, I've found learning this game an evolutionary process. Sometimes things I thought were aren't and vice versa. And there are a zillion variations of every rule or principle, gradations of every kind, and luck, skill, experience, weather and dice rolls added to the mix.

One thing I've claimed to know is that escorting fighters just get eaten alive. And they do, most of the time. But under the right circumstances, escorts play a key role and don't get chewed alive, even against strong CAP. The "right circumstance" seems to be sweeps going in first to fatigue or reduce the CAP; then the escorts can handle what's left, reducing bomber losses appreciably. So it may be possible to orchestrate a large strike against a heavily defended enemy airfield....but if the bombers go in before the sweepers, uh oh.

Sweeps aren't usually involved in carrier clashes, so we usually see escorting fighters (on both sides) get eaten alive. It's worth it to us as it allows some of the bombers to get through, but the losses are immense. I'm not sure if there's a way to help out the fighters in that environment.

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Post #: 535
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/6/2018 9:58:02 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		I have heard that:
- setting escorting fighters to the same altitude as the bombers gives best chance of coordination but ...
- you can set a difference of up to 5000 feet between escorts and bombers

I haven't looked at this closely enough to say one way or the other but it would seem to me that escorts a bit higher than the bombers have a better chance to beat "the bounce" and dogfight?

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Post #: 536
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/6/2018 10:05:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I usually set my escorting fighters to 2k to 6k above the bombers, occasionally higher but mostly 2k to 4k.

I didn't know about the "5k" limit that you mention. I haven't noticed any coordination issues but I don't have enough experience to really know - IE, while watching replays, I often miss things I should notice, due to my inexperience.

When I issue orders to escorting fighter squadrons, I give them orders to target the base the bombers are scheduled to hit. Probably most of you guys do the same.

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Post #: 537
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 1:20:48 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/19/44

Raid on Ominato: Erik loaded up the airfield with lots of good fighters; Allied sweepers came in first; and then escorted bombers came in, mostly targeting the port. The sweeps were a 1:1 affair but did enough to allow the bombers to hit hard:

Morning Air attack on Ominato , at 119,54
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5c Zero x 10
A6M8 Zero x 26
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 28
Ki-100-I Tony x 32

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 17
P-38J Lightning x 18
P-51B Mustang x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5c Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-1 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38J Lightning: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CMc Enoshima, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yokae Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Okuyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Ninoshima, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
CMc Toshima, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
ACM Zuiko Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
CMc Washizaki, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SC CHa-32, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PB Yahonui Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS RO-37, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
ACM Toshi Maru #5, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Tasei Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ML G-209, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-61, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Chiyo Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk





This looks as though this is more of that self-LRCAP bit as you experienced on Sakhalin a few turns ago. With this number of combatants and a 25 minute notice, this should have been a massive dogfight with serious losses on both sides.

I'm glad you smashed up his port facility but good with that raid. If he wants to try to bend the engine to interfere with realistic air model outcomes, I hope you extract the full measure from your targets.

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Post #: 538
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 4:40:45 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		There were lots of sweeps preceding the bombers, and they all appeared normal in terms of intensity and longevity. So I think the sweepers cleared the way for the escorted bombers. I didn't get the impression that my raid suffered from the same handicaps that Erik's raids vs. Shikuka have.

And that's in the back of my mind: what if I've unintentionally created an environment in which Erik is handicapped but I'm not? What if my big base is relatively "immune" from his attacks, while his bases are open to my attacks?

I'm not sure that's the case yet. Erik is gamely fighting on, trying different things and not making any comments or complaints. But I'm still concerned that I've unintentionally nerfed the game.

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Post #: 539
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 4:54:05 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Big base = concentrated CAP.

Many bases to cover without knowing which base will be targeted next = spread out CAP.

Sounds normal to me. How do you think you nerfed something?

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