vaned74
Posts: 389
Joined: 11/17/2008
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Rarely post, but I read your excellent AAR's regularly.
If I am not mistaken, I did not think the Soviets had any ACM's? So, at a decay of 1% per day and you are approximately 200 days in, the minefields would have decayed quite a bit by now (0.99^200 is approximately 0.15 - so if they started at 500 mines you'd be looking at only 75 now).
Unless he has laid new minefields defensively, then his minefields will become less and less of an issue.
This is not to say anything on the strategy of bombarding in general or encourage it. Seems to me that the strategic landscape looks like this now:
1) Soviet front - stabilized. Some 2,000 AV of Soviet troops will withdraw end of year. Soviet air replacements minimal excepting the Il-2. Although the Aleutians/Kuriles may not be defended adequately yet.
2) China front - stabilized.
3) Malaya - no chance to change land situation w/o isolating Malaya and reducing supply. On the plus side, he has put an awful lot of troops into here.
4) Air war - starting to stabilize. Remains to be seen if you can achieve air superiority in a region like SE Asia/Malaya. But, you have advanced fighters coming on line in numbers.
5) Naval - disadvantage in surface ships? Perhaps advantage in carrier air. Japan does have interior lines so you can mass easier the bulk of your forces.
6) Economic - you will need fuel/oil to power supply production and aircraft production. W/o significant expansion perhaps you will not need so much for the navy and shipping (or shipbuilding). By mid-43 you will be facing a potential significant air campaign against your HI bases from Manchuria.
Seems to me like conditions #4/#5 may last for perhaps up to 6 months so the pertinent question is how do you use this time. In my opinion, and it doesn't count for much, you need to mass your forces in an area where you can make a difference. In all the games I have seen turn early towards the Allies, the Japanese have tried to do too much at one time, thus a high dispersion of force. To that end, I would think that your priorities would be:
1) Secure Northern Malaya - build airfields from which to interdict the straights and Northern Sumatra of shipping & supplies coming in.
2) Secure Western Java - gain access to the Indian ocean, cut off south/east routes into Malaya & Sumatra. Frees up a path for KB and Japan's carrier air to become active interdicting supplies and troops into SE Asia/Malaya. Makes the calculus of each operation a lot harder for the Allies and leaves some doubt that any forces committed (naval, land) to Malaya will be ultimately lost.
3) Once this is done, high altitude bombing at just the limit of flak. Remember, if one gun fires in a unit, the whole unit is assumed to use ammo (supplies). You may not create a lot of hits, but, you can drain supply from his Malaya forces fast.
4) Then land offensive.
5) Finally, return to China & Manchukuo. Remember one thing here - your ships can go quite a ways up the river across from Sakhalin - even landing a major amphib force into the interior industry city. From here, with a well co-ordinated operation and some luck, maybe you can cut off the Russian army around Vlad. Then repeat #3 above with bombardments as well from sea.
6) Lastly, turn to China & defense.
My two cents, worth generally about less than one.
Keep up the good game and absolutely love your AAR's and play approach.
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RE: Soviets Activated.... - 
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