RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 3:59:37 AM

Anachro

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Those type of turns are very hard to sit through. You just have to grit your teeth and remain steadfast to the higher strategic picture. I know you do this; you always seem unflappable. As for me, when a bad turn comes my way there have been many cases where I yell out in pain, cry in agony, throw things in my office, pound my fists on the table, and more . Of course, I never let this frustration or anger show in my email exchanges with my opponent. Mind games are important, after all.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 7/25/2018 4:06:26 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1771

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 4:04:50 AM

RangerJoe

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Ouch on those ship losses.

Do you have more pure armor to bring in? I know that it is not as effective in mountainous terrain but your losses should be lighter than with your infantry.

But since you know where the KB is, you can now launch naval actions in the Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1772

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 4:56:44 AM

Canoerebel

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It's no fun watching a turn like that unfold, nor is it fun to report them. It can be really hard to bear down and provide details of an ugly turn or turns. I try to do so under the rationale that it would be a bit disingenuous to report the good turns while glossing over the bad ones. That doesn't make the reporting any easier, though.

On the plus side, the bad turns are what give the perspective or base-line by which to measure the good ones. :)

I'm not always sanguine about bad turns. When I am, I'm sure there are times when I seem to be reporting through rose-colored glasses or living in a Polyanna world. But what happened today doesn't mean much if I can keep the Uruppu campaign going (starting with tomorrow's landings) and if I can accomplish the egress/ingress op in good order. I won't miss what I lost, partly because far more than what was lost is inbound.

More important than the ship losses was the aircraft losses. Also, I'm short on replacement Navy pilots now (for my ground-based squadrons). That's a bigger issue for longterm progress. I'm good on Marine pilot reserves and Army pilot reserves, but the Navy is nearly depleted.

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 1773

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 5:06:42 AM

Lokasenna

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The losses were ugly, but presumably you knew what the risks were when you went in.

They accomplished the mission of landing more troops. I'd gander that what you landed is going to be enough to make the island fold. If so, with 2 in your hands, that changes the near term aerial picture in a non-trivial way. With Uruppu in Allied hands, Ketoi becomes relatively safe and can begin basing more bombers than fighters. With a hypothetical third island in your hands, I'm not sure you'd need to hit any others. I think you have several choices, notably Shimushiri or Etorofu. I think you said you have your future moves already planned out, so I'll be curious to see if I'm right in my guess.

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Post #: 1774

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 5:27:23 AM

Canoerebel

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Indeed, I'm not planning to take all the Kuriles. The only thing that might change my mind is if the large garrisons represented significant points and my troops weren't needed elsewhere at the moment. But that's a big if.

Shimishura is a likely target.

for now, readers, what would you do? I have large amphibious TF ready to go in and unload 640 AV at Uruppu. I have many TFs of empties that can either accompany DS or which can proceed to Ketoi under stout but not impregnable LBA. It is unlikely but not impossible that Erik could recomit his LBA and carrier air against my shipping. He could even commit combat TFs. Can my LBA and carrier air protect Death Star and the ships at Uruppu against another major onslaught? I think Erik will pull back tomorrow, but can I take that chance? Should I delay the amphibious landings one day to keep those TFs with DS?

I've made the decision, entered the orders, and I'm about to send the turn.

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Post #: 1775

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 5:29:58 AM

Canoerebel

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Addendum: The number of badly damaged ships is low. I'll lose a few LCI and perhaps a few other nice ships (two APA and one AKA are down to about 7 knots), but most of the rest had no more than moderate damage. Even CL Biloxi should be fine.

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Post #: 1776

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 12:14:09 PM

BBfanboy

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He has had time to repair some of his BBs and CAs so if he is going "all in" I would expect them to be sent in on a night raid/bombardment next turn. I know that would put them in DS's range on egress, but he might think he can LRCAP them heavily enough to whack your SBDs and TBs so that KB would be in position to go after DS. Eric has shown in other AARs that he will sacrifice major units to achieve strategic goals.

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Post #: 1777

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 1:18:41 PM

Canoerebel

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12/4/44

Uruppu: Bombardment scores one supply hit.

As the turn opens, KB pulls west, away from Uruppu. Enemy E-class TFs sink one sub and heavily damage another that were vectored in on the retreat path.

And it's a quiet day. I chose to keep all the ships tight with DS, including the reinforcing invasion TFs. Unless I see something ominous, those TFs will move to Uruppu tonight.

The most signficant thing in the theater for me is that the ingressing ships continue to gather at and near Attu, while the bulk of the egressing empties are with Death Star or are at Ketoi. None are molested.

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Post #: 1778

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 1:39:38 PM

Canoerebel

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12/4/44

Uruppu: No Japanaese bombardment; Allied bombardment accomplishes little. Some enemy AVs beginning to recover a bit.

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Post #: 1779

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 2:53:00 PM

Canoerebel

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12/04/44

NoPac: The bird's-eye view on the eve of the major reinforcing landings at Uruppu. I don't believe KB will make a U-turn, though I've allowed for it with CAP and LRCAP settings. If KB continues west another turn, the ingress/egress op should go smoothly.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 3:14:00 PM

jwolf

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It looked like some of the enemy air strikes originated from the Kuriles, especially Shimushiri. Shouldn't you shut some of those down with bombardments?

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Post #: 1781

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 3:21:30 PM

Canoerebel

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Rock, Paper, Scissors. Hard to do and would take some/a lot of the heat off Uruppu.

It's been two months since the Siege of Shikuka. Since then, Erik had never based bombers in the Kuriles, to my knowledge, until yesterday. I knew he might on any given turn, so I considered bombing or bombarding. The former would require a continuous effort employing many/most of my fighters and bombers to keep the fields suppressed. I judged that less desirable, as there are so many targets to suppress and such a need for the air force to handle Uruppu, including reduction of supply, which is probably the key. With regard to bombarding, that too was taking "the foot of the gas" at Uruppu while also incurring the risk posed by enemy subs and mines. Too, you can see that the bombardments haven't been very effective due to terrain and possibly due to forts and Cold Zone conditions. In the end, I felt like it was better to focus on Uruppu and to use DS to suppress enemy air activity.

You might say, "But it didn't work!" I understand that, but my reply would be, "Yeah, it has. Two months of intense activity and this is the first sortie by the Japanese air forces despite proximity to so many big airfields."

Overall, things have gone suprisingly smoothly at Ketoi and Uruppu. I suffered a notable setback yesterday, but that's just one day in a campaign that will last close to half a year. Overall, losses have been modest.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/25/2018 3:24:21 PM >

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Post #: 1782

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 3:35:48 PM

Canoerebel

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My overall strategy was to take Sikhalin Island to force Erik to fight. It worked - violently and far beyond what I had envisioned, and in ways that came too close to beating the Allies.

But the campaign really hurt Erik's navy. His air force is currently engaged in a long and protracted battle that is costly to both sides. I want the Kuriles campaign to drag out long enough for the Japanese air power to begin to crack.

When the Kuriles campaign winds down - when the Japanese navy and air forces are sufficiently suppressed - the Allies will move in strength on the Home Islands, Manchuria, or Korea. While all eyes are on the Kuriles for good reason, a great deal of work is being done to empower future ops - supply and troop deliveries and target preparation. The Allies have an incredibly strong base of operations right in the enemy heartland. It's an efficient base to fight from, both now and in the future.

There are going to be tough days against a player of Erik's caliber, but the Allies are in good position now. I'm very well satisfied with progress made since I stepped in nine months ago.

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Post #: 1783

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 4:00:54 PM

Lokasenna

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What I would have done: sent the amphibs north with a token CVE covering force (enough to prevent them from getting hit by IJNAF 2E torpedoes from Hokkaido, or perhaps a smattering of DBs from Paramushiro if he chose to try from that side).

And then sent my CVs southwest at flank to engage KB or at least force it to run away even faster.

I think. Doing that turn would've taken me hours as I tinkered. This makes assumptions that my CVs > his CVs, and that fuel bunkers (and ship damage levels) could support a flank speed run for the day. The KB strike package is at least somewhat depleted, and he would not have the benefit of any LRCAP like he did over Uruppu (as well as some of his LBA perhaps having targets set for Uruppu and not being able to strike at your CVs for lack of escorts).

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Post #: 1784

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/25/2018 4:08:21 PM

Canoerebel

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I considered it but there were too many uncertainties. I wasn't sure which way KB would go, and thought it possible Erik would park it by Hokkaido under as many LBA fighters as possible. Too, there was a small possibility that detaching the CVEs to escort the Herd might just expose them to an attack if Erik loaded up the right airfields with the right settings. Finally, there was a chance KB might steam in a completely unexpected direction, so I wouldn't even achieve a battle.

So I defaulted to sticking to the plan - landing those reinforcements and attending to ingress/egress. Those things I have much more control over.

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Post #: 1785

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 12:21:04 PM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

Uruppu: No enemy opposition to Allied landings and bombing raids at Uruppu, but the landings resulted in lots of disablements.

I think KB withdrew to Yokahama, most likely clearing the ingress/egress route. I may send Death Star and the egresses east today; the ingressers seem to be well on their way to theater.

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Post #: 1786

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 12:27:55 PM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

Uruppu: Allied bombardment has decent results, compared to the usual.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 2:32:30 PM

Bif1961

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To wax Civil War you are being Grant to his Lee at Petersburg, VA. Fixing him in a position that he has to defend and slowly wearing him down until he breaks.

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Post #: 1788

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 2:38:21 PM

Canoerebel

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I love Civil War analogies. That war plus the battles of Midway, Guadalcanal, Market-Garden, and The Bulge seem to provide fodder for just about any situation. :)

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Post #: 1789

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 2:39:20 PM

Canoerebel

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12/5/44

NoPac: The big picture.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 2:55:22 PM

JohnDillworth

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True....but Grant just kept extending his lines knowing full well that Lee eventually would not be able to counter. Grant understood that war. He had more

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Post #: 1791

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 3:11:56 PM

RangerJoe

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Instead of standing down the bombardments, why not have all of them hit Shimushiri-jima one night? The travel time from Uruppu should allow a round trip with the bombardment thrown in. You might even be able to wreck that airfield. Also, use up supplies there to make it weaker and be less able to stage aircraft.

Then when the DS comes back, hit Etofuru hard one night.

Change things up and be less predictable.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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Post #: 1792

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 3:13:56 PM

Canoerebel

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From that standpoint, the analogy is apt. "Grant" is poised outside Richmond; he's built up a tremendous base of operations (supply depot, etc.) at City Point; the enemy is still determined and crafty and able to fight and sting (in Erik's case, considerably more than Lee could). Right now it's December 1864. Grant is planning and building and accumulating, waiting for spring weather before applying the coup-de-grace.

It is likely that this war will last into 1946 but that's no longer a certainty. With the Allies having a secure major position north of Hokkaido, and with the Japanese navy battered and the air force fighting hard but also taking its lumps, there's a chance the Allies can efficiently prosecute the air war by the spring of '45. I've got to break the back of the enemy fighters (I don't know how long that will take) and take a few airfields closer to Hokkaido before unleashing the B-29s on industry. I don't want heavy attrition of the Superforts, so I'll use them sparingly until then.

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Post #: 1793

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 3:16:57 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Instead of standing down the bombardments, why not have all of them hit Shimushiri-jima one night? The travel time from Uruppu should allow a round trip with the bombardment thrown in. You might even be able to wreck that airfield. Also, use up supplies there to make it weaker and be less able to stage aircraft.

Then when the DS comes back, hit Etofuru hard one night.

Change things up and be less predictable.

I've thought about doing that, but it's more complicated than that. In the first place, Allied bombardments are doing sparse damage to enemy airfields. Terrain makes it tough. The bigger problem is that Erik might time an air strike right where he catches the BBs out of position. Sometimes the bombardment TFs can cover that distance in one night, sometimes not. When they don't, they end up in the open. They'd be covered by a bit of LRCAP but not enough to handle the kind of attack we just saw. Losing BB Idaho isn't going to matter, long term, but losing Iowa or New Jersey or Alabama or more than one would matter a great deal.

I'll just keep plodding along never doing anything unexpected, right? :)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 3:39:58 PM

Canoerebel

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I should add that losing even Iowa or NJ or any other ship will matter, but how much it matters would depend on the return. For instance, if Erik ordered an all-out air attack and lost 750 aircraft in a single turn, managing to sink a couple of good ships, that might be a net gain for the Allies.

And another thing - ships involved in bombardments incur a fair bit of wear-and tear that mounts up over the course of a week or two, requiring some downtime. Thus, trying to keep other airfield suppressed might or might not prove practical but definitely would take a good bit of the pressure off Uruppu.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/26/2018 3:40:24 PM >

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Post #: 1795

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 10:27:23 PM

Canoerebel

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12/6/44

I-6: This sub approached the western Aleuts from the Kuriles on a straight course about ten days back. My patrols got good detection on it, so two good ASW TFs were vectored right in front of it. One of them reacted but there was never any combat. Then the sub disappeared until today. I gather it isn't carrying Glens, because none of my many TFs in this area have reported detection. There's nothing vital in the way of shipping - just lots and lots of merchantmen and ASW ships. So by and large I'm not concerned about a single sub out here....except that the BB Missouri TF is inbound in a few days, followed a week later by the BB New York and BB Texas TF.

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Post #: 1796

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 10:34:37 PM

Canoerebel

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12/6/44

Uruppu: One of BB Richelieu TF's better bombardments, to date. Four supply hits is good; hitting support troops is too - bombardments don't seem to target combat units until the support units are dealt with (going from my experience with John III bombarding Sabang for six months and then subsequent events in that game).

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Post #: 1797

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 10:41:18 PM

Canoerebel

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12/6/44

Ingress/Egress Operation: Erik's patrols picked up the ingress armada today. I think this is his first information, and I think KB is too distant to interfere with the inbound TFs, supposing Erik wanted to.

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Post #: 1798

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 7/26/2018 10:45:52 PM

Canoerebel

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12/6/44

Uruppu: Several modestly-sized bombing raids target Uruppu today, doing minimal damage. But AA fire seems to be tapering off a bit, as damage to the bombers is light even at the relatively-low altitude of 9k.