RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 4:49:34 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Returns on investment. I'm anxious to find out where the IJN DD hit a mine (the replay doesn't show enemy mine hits), as this may give me info about likely vectors of approach and/or attack.

When I get the turn file open, I can check the location via the coordinates given in the combat report.

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Post #: 2041

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 4:57:31 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: On the day, two enemy I-boats are sunk and the one that hit the mine is probably badly damaged. Given the large number of enemy subs previously sunk during the NoPac campaigns, this may be significant.

To this point, Erik seems to be relying on his air force and small naval assets (SSX, S, MTBs) to attack. He's also moving reinforcements overland, which is slow. At some point (perhaps already), I think he will conclude that the only way to save Wakkanai is to bring in reinforcements by sea. That would, in all probability, be bloody. He may be trying to soften up the Allied defenses before trying this. There's a chance he'll conclude the risk isn't worth it. But I think he'll do it, so I'm mulling over counters.

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Post #: 2042

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:01:16 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: I don't think SSX-61 will survive the day. I'd say "the Alabama avenged," but it seems disproportional to gloat over the slapping of the mosquito that started a malaria epidemic.

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Post #: 2043

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:01:29 PM

USSAmerica

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Hey Dan, I won't comment on the game as I'm reading both sides, except to say that it's been extremely entertaining. I really appreciate the way you present so much information as you weave the story in your AAR's.

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Post #: 2044

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:04:16 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: I-37 finds Death Star but is destroyed. DS has remained in the same hex for a couple of days, so it'll have to move tomorrow.

Three days into the Wakkanai invasion, Erik has lost a decent number of subs and torpedo boats. The supply always seems endless to us undergoing the attacks, but I suppose they aren't.

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Post #: 2045

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:04:39 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Hey Dan, I won't comment on the game as I'm reading both sides, except to say that it's been extremely entertaining. I really appreciate the way you present so much information as you weave the story in your AAR's.

Thanks, Mike. Thanks for reading. :)

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Post #: 2046

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:11:08 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Probably 15 reports of RO-43 being hit by search aircraft, plus other reports of hits on an unnamed sub (might also be RO-43). Get 'em, boys!

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Post #: 2047

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:12:31 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: As the search phase draws to a conclusion and the air-attack phase begins, an enemy TF is sighted SE of the Kuriles. I don't think there's anything it can accomplish out that way, but I hope to figure out its composition and mission.

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Post #: 2048

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:16:56 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: This hurts my feelings on two accounts. First, this TF only moved a couple of hexes and should have retired far towards Toyohara, meaning I either forget to set it correctly (unlikely this time) or the TF slowed down for reasons unknown. The second hurt is that Allied LRCAP didn't manhandle unescorted Jills.

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Post #: 2049

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:23:20 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Erik has posted a lot of LRCAP over Wakkanai (the airfield is in bad shape there) that will tangle with later Allied sweeps and bombing missions.

Here the LRCAP bolsters an escorted strike drawn to Allied DDs. That's part of my plan, on the notion that these raids will usually (not always) be counterproductive to the Japanese air force.

One balancing act is that I'd like to maintain my own LRCAP over the base to hinder Erik's ability to bring in reinforcments by air, but all the dogfighting over the island affects that.

But it's more important that I maintain combat ships to prevent reinforcement by sea than to hamper reinforcement by air. The latter can't handle heavy weapons, so that the infantrymen brought in are almost defenseless against Allied heavy weapons and armor. IE, I think I can win using this recipe. I think.

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Post #: 2050

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:27:10 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: As expected, opposition over Asihagara is light. It's nice for Allied fighters to get in a good whack, because most of this turn their the ones getting hit.

This sweep is clearing the way for the bombers assigned to hit the airfield and the ground troops that might be heading north towards Wakkanai.

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Post #: 2051

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:31:35 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: The wrong end of the equation for the Allies.

At this point, I'm beginning to develop a notion for how I wish to deploy the Allied air force tomorrow. It's reassuring to have notions, because the turns when I'm thinking, "Uh, what now?" are the hardest.

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Post #: 2052

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:51:55 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: The sweepers did their job, now a number of bomb raids will target Ashigara airfield and ground troops. I'll show just one other - the biggest one, which targeted the airfield.

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Post #: 2053

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:55:05 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: But first, here's the largest raid on Wakkanai. IJ fighters were a bit tuckered from the previous clashes, so the losses here aren't too one-sided for the Allies. Damage inflicted is slight.

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Post #: 2054

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 5:59:05 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: The strongest Allied air strike of the day destroys some enemy fighters on the ground and whacks some supplies.

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Post #: 2055

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:02:05 PM

Canoerebel

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Two random thoughts to splice in, as I continue to run the turn:

1. It seems the 68th Mixed Brigade is the only IJA unit at Asahikawa. If so it's going to be awhile before Erik can bring enough infantry forward to threaten the blocking hex. He's going to have to reinforce by sea.

2. Several days back, Erik pulled most of his fighter squadrons out of Thailand/Burma and sent them to NoPac.

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Post #: 2056

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:05:24 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Intel by fire.

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Post #: 2057

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:06:01 PM

Lokasenna

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The SSX torpedoes don't do a lot of damage. I think "critical damage" is more of a multiplier on the damage done (which starts lower for the 45cm midget torps) than damage relative to the ship itself.

The SSX torpedo device has an effect of 772. The regular IJN submarine torpedoes, 53cm, have an effect of either 893 (type 95) or 661 (type 89, some of the early-war smaller submarines). That you didn't see "heavy damage" on Alabama despite 2 critical damage torpedo hits speaks to this difference in effect, I think.

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Post #: 2058

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:08:08 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Not a good mission for Avengers, and the few P-38Ls left on LRCAP are further tuckered out. I won't have much if anything left to intercept enemy air transports.

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Post #: 2059

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:15:28 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: First afternoon air attack - once again, enemy strike aircraft can't score vs. Allied DDs.

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Post #: 2060

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:15:47 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The SSX torpedoes don't do a lot of damage. I think "critical damage" is more of a multiplier on the damage done (which starts lower for the 45cm midget torps) than damage relative to the ship itself.

The SSX torpedo device has an effect of 772. The regular IJN submarine torpedoes, 53cm, have an effect of either 893 (type 95) or 661 (type 89, some of the early-war smaller submarines). That you didn't see "heavy damage" on Alabama despite 2 critical damage torpedo hits speaks to this difference in effect, I think.

That's encouraging!

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Post #: 2061

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:18:30 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Hey, enough LRCAP remained to have an effect!

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Post #: 2062

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:22:20 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: It seems likely that Erik will run low on small-fry before I run out of ships, forcing him to commit his bigger ships.

Most of the Allied combat TFs involved in the opening clashes have already retired to Toyohara or Shikuka to replenish. They'll be returning to Wakkanai vicinity beginning tomorrow, so the Allied fleet is in pretty good shape (excepting Alabama's troubles).

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Post #: 2063

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:23:32 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2:

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Post #: 2064

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:25:49 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: The fragment of 112th Cavalry left behind at Shikuka comes ashore after a quick sprint. I think I used two APA and a DE for this mission. So far, the valuable ships haven't been molested.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:28:48 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

Uruppu: This island secured now. All Allied units have changed prep to plan for pending ops.

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Post #: 2066

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:38:34 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Allied artillery bombardment has a decent impact, but Erik is bringing in lots of reinforcements by air.

Allied armor and paratroops will attack again tomorrow, while the infantry rests for at least one more day.

To clear the way for the paratroops, Allied fighters en masse will sweep the base. I'm hoping that too will bolster the interception of enemy air transports.

BB Iowa/BB New Jersey TF to bombard tomorrow. I sweat all mission, but moreso tomorrow's given what happened to Alabama today.

I'll also work out a plan to make sure any enemy combat ship incursion, or any effort to reinforce by sea, is properly countered.

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Post #: 2067

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:45:48 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

L-Day+2: Moderately heavy air losses again. I think Erik's guys will need some rest one day soon. IE, I think I can maintain this kind of attritional rate longer than he can. I hope.

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Post #: 2068

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:51:22 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

BB Alabama: Lokasenna was right - she's not too bad off. After modest repairs, she can probably stay in theater and fight. But more likely I'll send her back with the next egressing herd. I'm hoping to also send CA Boston back then - she can make about 20 knots despite the massive damage incurred during the Siege of Shikuka.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/8/2018 6:58:21 PM

Canoerebel

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12/23/44

Mysterious Enemy TF: Here's that mysterious TF. The only Allied shipping around is undetected, far to the east, and too close to Allied air in the Aleutians.

Perhaps this is actually an enemy ASW TF trying to find Allied subs. If so, Erik might be considering some kind of carrier or combat TF sortie this way.