RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 2:33:22 PM

Canoerebel

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1/6/45

Air Losses: 62 Allied fighters to 53 Japanese fighters. US Army fighters carried half the load, this time. 4EB losses were spread about between B-24s, PBY Liberators and Superforts in a sustainable manner.

This is not the kind of results in the air that I'm looking for, near term. "Ganging up" on enemy fighter squadrons is preferable, but this turn I elected to rest a lot of fighters and 4EB in preparation for the Sapporo strike.

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Post #: 2491

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 2:36:42 PM

zuluhour

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Stalin must be green with envy!
Your continuous pressure on him is admirable given the time frame and distances involved. Lotsa a fun to watch.
2c

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Post #: 2492

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 5:06:36 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

Canoerebel: But there are such huge forces, both sides, in proximity that things could quickly go crazy.

The peanut gallery will surely appreciate "crazy"!

Here's hoping it's good for the Allied side.

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Post #: 2493

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 5:46:33 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Resources is the largest single industry and offers the most points and is somewhat dispersed, so that's received most of the attention thus far. I do not know (due to lack of experience from the Japanese side) whether targeting resources will impact Erik. There's one thing that makes me wonder.

Toyohara produces in excess of 500 resources. That's massive in comparison to most of the DEI resource producers and many of the China ones. A quick glance around the map this a.m. (not exhaustive) indicated the some of the Korean bases are significant producers.

A concerted Allied air campaign against resources is the least likely to materially impact Japanese players in terms of impinging supply production. The game provides a surfeit of resources for modest Japanese effort in general. He's likely got >20MM resources stockpiled by this point in the game. I've got 18.5MM stockpiled in the Home Islands in February 1943-again, with limited investment on my part.

In order to minimize fuel and shipping required to bring home those resources, most Japanese players focus on pulling resources out of China and Korea. It's a relatively short jaunt to the southern Home Islands from there. As you have not impinged either of these routes, it's unlikely that destroying production of resources on Hokkaido will make a material difference in terms of his ability to bring in resources to the remaining unencumbered Home Islands. You'll just squeeze his transport further South.

All of this commentary is centering around interfering with resource accumulation in the Home Islands. Harvesting strategic bombing VPs from resource center destruction is an entirely different kettle of fish.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 8/27/2018 5:47:36 PM >

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Post #: 2494

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 7:17:07 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, Andre. That's helpful information.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 9:04:00 PM

Lovejoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Float damage shall be repaired by the ARD even without AR ship, but not major engine damage;

An ARD can only repair float damage, the AR is required for engine damage. According to this thread by Alfred, ARs should be able to repair major engine damage.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2990845

Though ARs are limited to a max of 5 major damage

< Message edited by Lovejoy -- 8/27/2018 11:20:00 PM >

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Post #: 2496

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 9:08:04 PM

Lovejoy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

Canoerebel: But there are such huge forces, both sides, in proximity that things could quickly go crazy.

The peanut gallery will surely appreciate "crazy"!
Here's hoping it's good for the Allied side.

Seconded on both counts!

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Post #: 2497

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/27/2018 9:44:02 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik probably had through June of '44 to bring in oil and resources basically without opposition, so you may be right.

Allied 4EB hit Harbin and Chinmapo resources effectivley in July '44, shortly after taking Sikhalin. Erik hasn't bothered to repair those, so perhaps resources aren't an issue.

I'll target Keijo, Heijo, Mudken and Anshan a few times, and see how he reponds.

Any Japanese player worth his salt should have no resource issues. I'd love, at this point in the war, for my opponent to be spending his 4E bomber sorties on resource centers. You may get VPs for it, but you certainly won't help to destroy his ability to fight you at all. Honshu needs ~3.3 million resources a month. That's if you don't ship in one resource point from anywhere. All of the other Home Islands have a resource surplus. If you can get the excess from the other Home Islands and some from Korea (easy to do), that deficit drops down to about a million a month. He's had a long time to get those resources to Japan.

But, there are Japanese players who insist that shipping resources to the Home Islands is a waste of fuel.

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 8/27/2018 9:53:18 PM >

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Post #: 2498

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2018 12:54:33 AM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik probably had through June of '44 to bring in oil and resources basically without opposition, so you may be right.

Allied 4EB hit Harbin and Chinmapo resources effectivley in July '44, shortly after taking Sikhalin. Erik hasn't bothered to repair those, so perhaps resources aren't an issue.

I'll target Keijo, Heijo, Mudken and Anshan a few times, and see how he reponds.

Any Japanese player worth his salt should have no resource issues. I'd love, at this point in the war, for my opponent to be spending his 4E bomber sorties on resource centers. You may get VPs for it, but you certainly won't help to destroy his ability to fight you at all. Honshu needs ~3.3 million resources a month. That's if you don't ship in one resource point from anywhere. All of the other Home Islands have a resource surplus. If you can get the excess from the other Home Islands and some from Korea (easy to do), that deficit drops down to about a million a month. He's had a long time to get those resources to Japan.

What is there, an echo in here?

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Post #: 2499

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2018 1:20:49 AM

ny59giants

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How many Frank factory locations do you know of from recon efforts?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2018 1:42:59 PM

Canoerebel

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They are scattered about, currently out of reasonable range.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/28/2018 1:43:21 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2018 5:47:43 PM

Canoerebel

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I'll report as soon as I receive the turn from Erik. At the moment it seems that he is wandering around the Bermuda Triangle, unable to send the turn.*

*It is possible that one of his other games currently has his full attention.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/28/2018 7:18:19 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll report as soon as I receive the turn from Erik. At the moment it seems that he is wandering around the Bermuda Triangle, unable to send the turn.*

*It is possible that one of his other games currently has his full attention.

't'ain't mine.

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Post #: 2503

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 12:15:53 AM

Canoerebel

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Late this afternoon, Erik sent the Combat Report and movie but not the next turn file. I won't run the movie, as the various reports (combat, Ops, SigInt) won't "register" in the next turn file - IE, they won't display - unless and until the next turn file is in from Erik.

I'll be off hiking in the mountains early tomorrow; back late afternoon. So probably an update early tomorrow evening.

I regret leaving you gents hanging, but it's a lot more fun (and thorough) to update the AAR when all files are available.

I'll say this - it was a big turn with a lot of action. The Allied air force and navy weren't skewered, so they're in fine shape to proceed with the next invasion, which was the main thing I was looking for. But deciding on a course of action for the following day is going to be challenging and complicated - stick around Sapporo or head out for the next amphibious assault?

More tomorrow.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 1:00:54 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
But deciding on a course of action for the following day is going to be challenging and complicated- stick around Sapporo or head out for the next amphibious assault?

"Crush your enemies.
See them driven before you.
And hear da lamandations of da women"

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 1:37:16 PM

AcePylut

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Ahnold

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Post #: 2506

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 4:27:56 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
But deciding on a course of action for the following day is going to be challenging and complicated- stick around Sapporo or head out for the next amphibious assault?

"Crush your enemies.
See them driven before you.
And hear da lamandations of da women"

Conan the Musical

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBGOQ7SsJrw

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 4:44:36 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Ahnold

It's actually a corruption of a Genghis Khan quote.

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Post #: 2508

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 5:33:26 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Ahnold

It's actually a corruption of a Genghis Khan quote.

I prefer adaptation.

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Post #: 2509

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 5:52:50 PM

Simonsez

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Gengis Khan was already corrupted when he said the original. No harm, no foul.

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It's a trap!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 6:22:13 PM

AcePylut

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Yea, but da "da's" give it away and make it decidedly not Ghengis Khanny, but more ahnoldy :)

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Post #: 2511

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 8:53:14 PM

Canoerebel

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I've just returned home from an interesting day hiking in the Cohutta Wilderness. As usual, my hiking companion showed me old homesites, mill sites, church sites, roads, etc. We covered about eight miles in about four hours, but the long drive in and out on rough mountain roads made the day much longer.

During the course of the hike, I had some time to mull over the coming turn (I've already seen the Combat Report) and to begin thinking how I'll handle the following turn, whether to err on the side of offense or defense. I have some ideas that I'll share here in a bit.

I'll start the movie soon and begin posting shortly thereafter.

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Post #: 2512

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:21:00 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

NoPac: Despite the risks involved in this plan, I felt pretty good about it. Above all else, I don't want it to interfere with the upcoming amphibious operation. Oddly, the entire plan stemmed from a need to protect some assets to be involved in that op.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:29:51 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: As the night phase opens it appears that Allied naval forces are taking position without mishap. But the night-mission Superforts are shut down by weather.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:35:36 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Death Star is in position, generating a lot of messages like this one during the Japanese naval search phase.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:37:58 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Death Star search aircraft pay a similar toll. Perhaps heavier. Perhaps much heavier (due to the number of aircraft searching).

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Post #: 2516

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:46:12 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Carriers sweeps fly first - 200 good Allied fighters against 300+ enemy fighters. The results are good (usually I fly my sweeps at max altitude, but dropped all Corsairs and Hellcats and some others to 20k, seeking to maximize maneuverability).

To this point, there have been LBA mission in Burma, but none from Toyohara or Sapporo. Uh oh, weather is going to play a roll. Perhaps afternoon missions will be a go.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:53:43 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: Well-escorted carrier strike vs. enemy shipping at Sapporo finds the cruisers present. Large and still potent enemy CAP does it's job, preventing any strikes.

The failure of the escorted 4EB to come in was a key to this outcome.

The Allied strike was well coordinated - there were no other strike packages.

Thus endeth the morning phase.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 9:55:07 PM

Canoerebel

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In an uber-CAP environment like this one, I know that I'm likely to lose a lot of strike aircraft. That's acceptable. More important is to keep carrier fighter losses low, since they are in relatively short supply and will be called on in a big way soon.

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Post #: 2519

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/29/2018 10:01:51 PM

Canoerebel

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1/7/45

Sapporo: After search aircraft for both sides are slaughtered to start the afternoon phase, a large combined sweep comes in from Toyohara and Shikuka, again at 20k. The results are good, and now we know that the bombing missions should be able to fly.